Alex Salmond and Independence

Doesn't that mean it was expected then? I'm talking about the poll suggesting 54 no and 46 yes. Sounds like they got it right if an area that was expected to vote yes actually voted no.

The 54-46 overall prediction takes into account a slight yes advantage for that region.
 


So if I'm reading this correctly, Clackmannanshire was supposed to be the most nailed on to vote Yes, but No won with 54%.

If it follows that trend, the YouGov poll is going to be way off.
 
Is this determined on overall votes?

Yep - it's not about constituencies - it's about each and every person

Constituencies declare their results throughout the night though.

The total number of voters are counted as we go so all we're waiting on is Yes or No hitting 51%

Glasgow / Edinburgh and Borders (one box if you like) will be declared at at about 5:00am. Given they equate to about 28% of the electorate - that's likely to be the decider.

Once the result is known - the rest of the boxes will just count to the final % score.
 
What is the reason to not have election polls? This seems so amateurish.

I had read that it was something to do with the fact that they have never actually had to do an exit poll for a referendum before, so therefore don't have the sort of pre-prepared data they do for usual elections (Or something along those lines)

But, the next referendum, for whoever, and whenever, will have exit polls as they can study tonight's results etc.
 
It was interesting what the Labour woman just said on the Beeb; she says the worst thing that could have happened for the Yes was the poll that had them ahead by 1%.

She says that the way the pound fluctuated and share prices were effected from just that one thing probably did more to scare the undecideds more than anything the No campaign said. It made people really think about the financial implications of full independence when one poll caused a tremor in the markets.
 
I love hearing about all the spoilt ballets. :lol:

Agree that a finish closer to 60:40 is now most likely.
 
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I'm still holding out hope.

'MON THE YES !!!

Signed, England.
 
It was interesting what the Labour woman just said on the Beeb; she says the worst thing that could have happened for the Yes was the poll that had them ahead by 1%.

She says that the way the pound fluctuated and share prices were effected from just that one thing probably did more to scare the undecideds more than anything the No campaign said. It made people really think about the financial implications of full independence when one poll caused a tremor in the markets.
On the other hand, given YouGov's latest prediction is looking more and more like nonsense, perhaps Yes was never anywhere near a lead, and YouGov singlehandedly got Westminster to make all sorts of promises.
 
I feel strongly that I should be allowed to vote yes.

I bet I am taller than most of them, can I strong arm one of them into voting yes for me ?

Or bribe him/it with a dandy selection of shortbread and offal ?
 
They must have employed the slowest counters ever... Honestly, this is ridiculous. They only have 5 million ballots to count spread out amongst 32 districts!!
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-29130277
Laura Bicker
BBC Referendum Correspondent

Edinburgh count
Posted at02:25

This is quite a hefty count to go through so it could be 05:00 before we get the result. There are a few worried faces within the "Yes" camp.

I have spoken to a few people here who believe it could be as much as 60% for "No" and 40% for "Yes".
 
Good stuff so far for no.

Poor turn outs for the big towns.


Regardless of the low turn out' one person one vote' will have a massive effect on the result and they will ultimately determine the result.


The undecided historical non voters in the big towns were always yes prey so perhaps the low vote suggests it's not worked out that way.


Still expect a huge yes influx % wise (and victory) once the main areas come in.
 
Good stuff so far for no.

Poor turn outs for the big towns.


Regardless of the low turn out' one person one vote' will have a massive effect on the result and they will ultimately determine the result.


The undecided historical non voters in the big towns were always yes prey so perhaps the low vote suggests it's not worked out that way.


Still expect a huge yes influx % wise (and victory) once the main areas come in.
Edinburgh is looking likely to be no.
 
Other than this patriotic "Proper Scot" bullshit and all its emotive suggestions there really wasn't any substance to the Yes campaign. It was all based on if's and but's. Most voters with a brain wouldn't vote for such uncertainty. People have bills to pay, mouths to feed, jobs to go to... not even knowing what currency was to be used doesn't fill people with confidence.
 
I can see it being at least another 8 years... couple of general elections time. They've had 2 years to get a YES majority and clearly they don't have it.