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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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UK exports fish and chips does it? Aren't they cold by the time they get there?

I think he's countering one stereotype (prosecco) with another (fish and chips). Hence why he ends the argument with "Putting things on this level is a bit insulting."
 
Employment at an all time high (since records began), no cut in EU workers thus far.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ate-wage-growth-earnings-brexit-business-live

That's a pretty amazing way to interpret that article, which states that a beforehand faster job growth is slowing down, a lot more people have applied for social welfare and while employment is at an all time high (due to more equality in the market, e.g. women working), unemployment is anywhere near any positive records.
 
That's a pretty amazing way to interpret that article, which states that a beforehand faster job growth is slowing down, a lot more people have applied for social welfare and while employment is at an all time high (due to more equality in the market, e.g. women working), unemployment is anywhere near any positive records.

Or

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, fears that UK unemployment will rise in the next few months:

The UK’s labour market continues to surprise with its resilience to the Brexit shock. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to a new 11-year low of 4.8% in the three months to September. This is yet more evidence that the labour market and the wider economy have fared better than expected since June’s referendum.

However, there could be storm clouds gathering on the horizon. The claimant count – which in a quirk of the data is a more recent figure than the unemployment rate – jumped by 9,800 in October, with September’s figure revised upwards from 700 to 5,600. All in all, it does seem likely that unemployment could tick up somewhat during the coming months, though dire predictions made in the immediate aftermath of the vote appear wide of the mark.

We all know, even the Brexiteers, that harder times are ahead. That we fare better than expected is good news.
 
Or

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, fears that UK unemployment will rise in the next few months:

The UK’s labour market continues to surprise with its resilience to the Brexit shock. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to a new 11-year low of 4.8% in the three months to September. This is yet more evidence that the labour market and the wider economy have fared better than expected since June’s referendum.

However, there could be storm clouds gathering on the horizon. The claimant count – which in a quirk of the data is a more recent figure than the unemployment rate – jumped by 9,800 in October, with September’s figure revised upwards from 700 to 5,600. All in all, it does seem likely that unemployment could tick up somewhat during the coming months, though dire predictions made in the immediate aftermath of the vote appear wide of the mark.

We all know, even the Brexiteers, that harder times are ahead. That we fare better than expected is good news.

Bit weird to talk about any evidence at all of Britain being resilient to Brexit, when Britain is still a part of the EU.

There was always going to be some sort of shock in the immediate aftermath of the decision, which was always going to be relatively temporary. Although Sterling has yet to recover. But it's crazy to talk about the effect of Brexit on the economy, good or bad, when it hasn't actually happened yet!
 
Bit weird to talk about any evidence at all of Britain being resilient to Brexit, when Britain is still a part of the EU.

There was always going to be some sort of shock in the immediate aftermath of the decision, which was always going to be relatively temporary. Although Sterling has yet to recover. But it's crazy to talk about the effect of Brexit on the economy, good or bad, when it hasn't actually happened yet!

There were predictions made about what would happen in the immediate aftermath of the vote by the Bank of England among many others. I'm not sure why we can't talk about if the actual impact has been better or worse than what was predicted?
 
"You'll sell less prosecco":lol::lol::lol:
I can't believe this guy ended up with one of the most important political jobs in the UK.
 

“Were we to make an exception for the free movement of people with Britain, this would mean we would endanger principles of the whole internal market in the European Union, because everyone else will then want these exceptions,” Merkel told a meeting of the German employers’ association BDA.
So....Merkel's now admitting that everyone else is unhappy with freedom of movement and wants rid of it.
 
So....Merkel's now admitting that everyone else is unhappy with freedom of movement and wants rid of it.

I think that Merkel wants to avoid cherry picking through different deals, which is fair enough
 
So....Merkel's now admitting that everyone else is unhappy with freedom of movement and wants rid of it.

Merkel is fully aware of the rise of anti-globalisation and a move back to nationalism. A desperation from many in the Western World to turn the clocks back 80 years to a much shitty time in our history.

Most governments are happy with freedom of movement and understand that it took tens of thousands of years since a small tribe left Africa for 28 nations to come together rather than trying to rip each other apart. Even the government that called the UK referendum were happy with the EU.

What Merkel also understands is that cherry picking for the UK would put immense pressure on all of the other governents across Europe and bleaker times would be ahead of everyone.
 
At least Boris' statement was rotted in some semblance of economics. If the tariffs agreed upon are too steep, the market will gradually shift to alternative sources. Moreover, many of the places we are most likely to consider future trade deals with are also popular wine exporters to the UK.

Which isn't to say that it sounds like a rather silly discussion between two senior politicians.



Bit weird to talk about any evidence at all of Britain being resilient to Brexit, when Britain is still a part of the EU.

There was always going to be some sort of shock in the immediate aftermath of the decision, which was always going to be relatively temporary. Although Sterling has yet to recover. But it's crazy to talk about the effect of Brexit on the economy, good or bad, when it hasn't actually happened yet!

But where is the immediate recession, the housing market crash, the government budgetary crisis, the exodus of companies and resultant mass unemployment?

Yes, Vote Leave had a bus which overstated the potential return for the NHS. Conversely, Remain overstated the consequences of the vote to sway the minds of the electorate.
 
So....Merkel's now admitting that everyone else is unhappy with freedom of movement and wants rid of it.
She's is more or less saying that the EU would be willing to introduce the concessions made to Cameron ~1 year ago again to Mrs. May and let her try to sell that as "brexit is brexit" at home. With Boris Johnson currently running around Europe proclaiming that A is B and C never was a founding principle of the EU, and that his counterpart will sell less of D if he doesn't agree that A is B, it might work.
 
But where is the immediate recession, the housing market crash, the government budgetary crisis, the exodus of companies and resultant mass unemployment?

Yes, Vote Leave had a bus which overstated the potential return for the NHS. Conversely, Remain overstated the consequences of the vote to sway the minds of the electorate.

You can put that down to the omnishambles ever since the vote. The one and only upside of which is that nobody will be making any decisions about likely implications as nobody knows when and how Brexit is happening yet. Including the people tasked with implementing it! As and when that becomes clear you'll see businesses making the sort of decisions you were warned about. Meanwhile it's business as usual, for obvious reasons.
 
She's is more or less saying that the EU would be willing to introduce the concessions made to Cameron ~1 year ago again to Mrs. May and let her try to sell that as "brexit is brexit" at home. With Boris Johnson currently running around Europe proclaiming that A is B and C never was a founding principle of the EU, and that his counterpart will sell less of D if he doesn't agree that A is B, it might work.

Cameron tried that, I think he failed
 
She's is more or less saying that the EU would be willing to introduce the concessions made to Cameron ~1 year ago again to Mrs. May and let her try to sell that as "brexit is brexit" at home. With Boris Johnson currently running around Europe proclaiming that A is B and C never was a founding principle of the EU, and that his counterpart will sell less of D if he doesn't agree that A is B, it might work.

It was criticised at the time, and would be again. The issue of migrant benefits is neither here nor there, a political red herring which only feeds into the resentment perpetuated by more extreme opinion.


Merkel is fully aware of the rise of anti-globalisation and a move back to nationalism. A desperation from many in the Western World to turn the clocks back 80 years to a much shitty time in our history.

Most governments are happy with freedom of movement and understand that it took tens of thousands of years since a small tribe left Africa for 28 nations to come together rather than trying to rip each other apart. Even the government that called the UK referendum were happy with the EU.

Many national governments, and the European Union more broadly, have been happy to overlook the plight of tens of millions of people.
 
You can put that down to the omnishambles ever since the vote. The one and only upside of which is that nobody will be making any decisions about likely implications as nobody knows when and how Brexit is happening yet. Including the people tasked with implementing it! As and when that becomes clear you'll see businesses making the sort of decisions you were warned about. Meanwhile it's business as usual, for obvious reasons.

So you are not prepared to own that deception, and other exaggerations advanced by the financial reports Remain drew upon?

The public was told that the mere act of voting for Brexit would lead to those events occurring n short order.
 
So you are not prepared to own that deception, and other exaggerations advanced by the financial reports Remain drew upon?

The public was told that the mere act of voting for Brexit would lead to those events occurring n short order.

Have you got any evidence for that accusation?

I thought it was fairly clear that the consquences they were warned about were those of Brexit, not the act of voting for it.
 
No he branded it as 'Real Reform'

Just one of many lies

I'm not disagreeing with you. However I think the only way the brexiteers can keep their various promises is by redefining what those promises meant. They've loudly and proudly announced that they'll get the same deal concerning trade, just without the movement of people. They'll need a contortionists flexibility to achieve that, and probably will by bending one of their promises into an empty shell. (I'd bet that it is the immigration issue, if I were a gambler).
 
I see Google are going to create loads of jobs in London

That'll be an extra 30k in tax revenue over a decade then
 
Many national governments, and the European Union more broadly, have been happy to overlook the plight of tens of millions of people.

In a post where you talk about red herrings, how is this not one? What element of Brexit is aimed at helping the plight of those tens of millions at all? In fact weren't those tens of millions used by the Brexit campaign as the threat of some looming invasion of the UK and the need to pull up the drawbridge?
 
So you are not prepared to own that deception, and other exaggerations advanced by the financial reports Remain drew upon?

The public was told that the mere act of voting for Brexit would lead to those events occurring n short order.

Sure both sides exaggerated. It's a bit like some climate change warnings, they show you a picture of how the world could be under 50ft of water in 100 years, and people go 'FEARMONGERING!!'. And yes that's true, it might only be 40ft or it might take 120 years.
 
So you are not prepared to own that deception, and other exaggerations advanced by the financial reports Remain drew upon?

The public was told that the mere act of voting for Brexit would lead to those events occurring n short order.

Why should you expect anyone to do what you refuse to do with Leave?
 
Have you got any evidence for that accusation?

I thought it was fairly clear that the consquences they were warned about were those of Brexit, not the act of voting for it.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...t-crash-house-price-fall-eu-referendum-brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...at-brexit-would-cause-recession-a7061061.html

I can look for more sources later, when i have the time.


Sure both sides exaggerated. It's a bit like some climate change warnings, they show you a picture of how the world could be under 50ft of water in 100 years, and people go 'FEARMONGERING!!'. And yes that's true, it might only be 40ft or it might take 120 years.

Or...that if you commit a certain act your home will be under water the morning after, only for nothing of this order to have occurred. We were not only talking about long-term predictions, and all too many of those were open to question.


Why should you expect anyone to do what you refuse to do with Leave?

Did i not state in the earlier post to Pogue that the 350m figure was inaccurate, misleading?

Be it Caroline Lucas, George Osborne or the IMF, Remainers on here are quite happy to downplay the nonsense advanced by their preferred side in the debate. I am not say that i have never attempted to do so myself, however the light in which Remain's untruths are interpreted is different i feel.

In short, i don't hold to this notion of the In campaign's wrongs being insignificant by comparison.
 
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Did i not state in the earlier post to Pogue that the 350m figure was misleading?

Misleading? How about straight up lies?

Boris Johnson said:
When you consider that the costs of [EU] regulation are estimated at £600m per week, I am afraid you are driven to the conclusion [that] whatever the reasons may be for remaining in the EU, they are not economic.
Yeah he "estimated" that himself.

Jacob Rees-Mogg said:
The UK consistently loses in the EU because other members favour a highly regulated and protectionist economy
The UK lost so constantly that it was allowed to do Euro clearing despite every Eurozone country being against it. And that is not even starting with the derogatory lie that "other members favour a highly regulated and protectionist economy".

Boris Johnson said:
Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried this out, and it ends tragically, the EU is an attempt to do this by different methods
This doesn't even make sense. Boris Johnson claims that governmental cooperation is essentially "doing the same thing Hitler did".

Nigel Farage said:
Women face rape by migrants if we stay in
But it was remain that was scaremongering...

Ok Leave won the vote, the UK will leave the EU. That doesn't magically make lies into facts though.
 

More would be good but you could start with better. The first link is the head of the IMF paraphrasing a report from the head of the BoE. This report seems to be very much about the overall impact of Brexit, rather than this specific period. Ditto the stuff that Corbyn is talking about in the Independent piece.

Anyway, you're being remarkably intellectually dishonest to try and infer that predictions made by financial analysts about what might happen in the future are in any way comparable to the promises made by the Leave campaign (i.e. NHS funding stuff on the side of a bus). Predictions about the future will never be 100% accurate but, despite this, a lot of what they did predict has already come to pass. The enormous devaluation of sterling being the most obvious one.
 
Merkel is fully aware of the rise of anti-globalisation and a move back to nationalism. A desperation from many in the Western World to turn the clocks back 80 years to a much shitty time in our history.

Most governments are happy with freedom of movement and understand that it took tens of thousands of years since a small tribe left Africa for 28 nations to come together rather than trying to rip each other apart. Even the government that called the UK referendum were happy with the EU.

What Merkel also understands is that cherry picking for the UK would put immense pressure on all of the other governents across Europe and bleaker times would be ahead of everyone.
There are two sides to the freedom of movement in Europe and only one side is ever discussed on this forum.

Lithuania are struggling now because of emigration, a factor that was probably never considered by the EU and is dismissed out of hand here. (I've brought this up before).

The problem of emigration became one of the key topics of the election campaign. Since joining the EU in 2004 Lithuania’s population of around 3 million has shrunk by about 370,000, with as many as 150,000 heading to Britain: the fastest population decline in the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/24/anti-emigration-party-storms-to-victory-in-lithuania/
There is now an anti-emigration party in power in Lithuania.

This is where the EU failed (yet again) to anticipate repercussions of their policies (or lack of) and take action to pre-empt such problems throughout Europe. I suspect more countries will start struggling with this issue soon. Freedom of movement only really works when the economies of participating countries are similar. If they aren't similar then you end up depleting the poorer countries of essential knowledge and skills they need to build up their economy.
 
And the latest news for Brexiteers is: the UK is still in the EU and will be for some time to come - the next stage of the economic slowdown will be as described in numerous posts repeated ad nauseum and will depend on what type of Brexit it will be.

How many times does it have to be repeated before it sinks in.
 
And the latest news for Brexiteers is: the UK is still in the EU and will be for some time to come - the next stage of the economic slowdown will be as described in numerous posts repeated ad nauseum and will depend on what type of Brexit it will be.

How many times does it have to be repeated before it sinks in.
As soon as anything bad happens, it'll be the fault of "Remoaners not embracing Brexit when they had the chance".
 
This is where the EU failed (yet again) to anticipate repercussions of their policies (or lack of) and take action to pre-empt such problems throughout Europe. I suspect more countries will start struggling with this issue soon. Freedom of movement only really works when the economies of participating countries are similar. If they aren't similar then you end up depleting the poorer countries of essential knowledge and skills they need to build up their economy.
Don't spoil the dream of EUtopia
 
As soon as anything bad happens, it'll be the fault of "Remoaners not embracing Brexit when they had the chance".
Well the Germans blamed their worse than expected growth figures on Brexit, Paul hasn't told them the UK hasn't left yet tho
 
So you are not prepared to own that deception, and other exaggerations advanced by the financial reports Remain drew upon?

The public was told that the mere act of voting for Brexit would lead to those events occurring n short order.
Can I confirm that this is the same poster who, despite being shown repeated examples to the contrary, insisted that Leave never said £350m would go to the NHS?
 
Can I confirm that this is the same poster who, despite being shown repeated examples to the contrary, insisted that Leave never said £350m would go to the NHS?
Leave never said £350m would go to the NHS....more that it would be better spent on the NHS. The only people who can decide how money is spent is the government. Surely people could work that one out for themselves!
 
Leave never said £350m would go to the NHS....more that it would be better spent on the NHS. The only people who can decide how money is spent is the government. Surely people could work that one out for themselves!

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"Let us give"
They won, why aren't they "giving"?
 
Unbelievable that people still deny that.