Schulz got elected as SPD leader with 605 out of 605 valid votes. That's even better than Kurt Schumacher in 1948 (best result so far with 99.71%).
German Elections 2017
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
The Führer is führious with envy!
Seriously, this hype is so weird.
But anything to take votes from AfD and the likes.The first numbers I look at in polls are those of the AfD and how they changed to the previous institute's poll. I'm quite pleased that for the time being, AfD either stagnates or drops and are mostly just under 10%, not beyond 10%. No reason to sit back and assumes it stays that way but encouraging nevertheless.The Führer is führious with envy!
Seriously, this hype is so weird.
Back to the SPD:
No, but he is a seasoned EU-politician.Is Schulz from the Kim dynasty?
for all the german readers:
Interesting study regarding remain/leave the EU among 15-24 year olds in Germany, Austria, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary.
Overwhelming majority wants to remain.
Overwhelming majority wants to remain.
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About 800,000 eligible voters in the state of Saarland can vote today for their regional parliament. Currently led by a CDU / SPD coalition with a CDU MP, a switch to a SPD / Left party is not impossible.
The SPD was about 12% behind the CDU earlier this year. Then the federal SPD announced Schulz as Merkel's challenger and the gap in Saarland decreased to about 5%. Greens and FDP might not make it into the parliament (5% cut-off), it'll be a nail-biting night for them. AfD sadly to be expected in the parliament but with one of the lowest results in polls across Germany.
The SPD was about 12% behind the CDU earlier this year. Then the federal SPD announced Schulz as Merkel's challenger and the gap in Saarland decreased to about 5%. Greens and FDP might not make it into the parliament (5% cut-off), it'll be a nail-biting night for them. AfD sadly to be expected in the parliament but with one of the lowest results in polls across Germany.
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First projections: CDU with gains and far ahead of SPD who looses some percentage-points. Will hopefully decrease the hype around Schulz to more reasonable levels. SPD could still form a majority with Green Party and Left Party if the former get over the line (currently just below the 5% needed). AfD with 6% in, FDP out.
Greens are 0.8% under the 5% mark, they won't make it. Grand coalition it is again.
Oh. wow. I didn't really follow it closely. Any reason why the CDU is so strong? Is Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer just so popular? Were there any regional topics that dominated this election?
Popular incumbent and high approval ratings for the government.
I know there is a province with a CDU-Green govt. How is it performing?
Do the Greens (like in the US and UK) have a socialist stance towards the economy?
Do the Greens (like in the US and UK) have a socialist stance towards the economy?
There is a coalition between the two parties lead by the Greens in Baden-Württemberg and a CDU-lead coalition between both parties in Hessen. Not sure how these coalitions are doing, but since there have been few national headlines they probably just go about their business like most other coalitions.
The Green Party used to clearly lean towards the left. Nowadays the moderate faction is stronger and a significant part of their voters are quite saturated themselves.
Some of them do. I'd say their left wing is a mix of students and the remnants of the anti-nuclear protest movement from the 80s. Currently their realist wing is more influential with Kretschmann heading the government of Baden-Würtemberg (in coalition with the CDU) and Özdemir the most important leader on the federal level. Their base is the environmentally conscious urban (upper-) middle class so they have little interest in socialism.
The Green Party's biggest problem is that their core ideas have become so mainstream they have been adopted by all parties. They've lost their USP and have become somewhat pointless as a result.
Any reason why the CDU won so largely?
So it was just a local thing.
I’d say that one finding of this election is, that the gains of the SPD might come at the expanse of the Green/DieLinke At least to some extent. That might motivate both parties to attack the SPD in the coming elections. Additionally the CDU might be able to attract some conservative non-voters to avoid a left-wing majority.
It can't get more local than Saarland. It shouldn't even be a state to be honest, way too small. Ridicoulus that we still waste so much money on its legislature.
I get your feeling. We also have small communities here in Italy.
According to SPIEGEL, leading members of SPD and FDP (including Schulz himself) are advocating for an SPD-Greens-FDP coalition. Long shot though with the current percentages.
Good and bad news from Germany. The AfD is having their political convention and and the two different wings (hard-right vs. more centrist conservative) are not getting along. The current leader of the party – Frauke Petry – is leader of the centrist wing, while Alexander Gauland, who is a vice-leader, stands for an extreme right wing (he and a couple of other guys stopped the expulsion of Bernd Höcke, who is a Neonazi). Originally Petry wanted to be the leading candidate for the next election and she promoted a course that would steer the party towards government. Both things got rejected, which is a heavy blow for her and the “pragmatic/centrist” part of the party. We’ll have to wait and see which team they are going to elect tomorrow.
It is not over yet, but any infighting and shift to the extreme-right, would harm their chances to get a strong result in the next election. Petry made them much more electable for angry conservatives. That’s the good news. The bad news is that any position, that tries to restrict genuine right-wing extremist views, seems to get marginalized. They moved very far to the right during the short period of existence. From centrist liberal-conservative ideas (Lucke) towards conservative ideas (Petry) and now they are on course to become something like the France National (and who knows where they stop….).
It is not over yet, but any infighting and shift to the extreme-right, would harm their chances to get a strong result in the next election. Petry made them much more electable for angry conservatives. That’s the good news. The bad news is that any position, that tries to restrict genuine right-wing extremist views, seems to get marginalized. They moved very far to the right during the short period of existence. From centrist liberal-conservative ideas (Lucke) towards conservative ideas (Petry) and now they are on course to become something like the France National (and who knows where they stop….).
The AfD chose Gauland and Alice Weidel as the leading figures for their party for the next election.
Gauland was member of the CDU till 2013. He is a very conservative far-right nationalist, who doesn’t even seem to be bothered by people who are even further to the right. He is the kind of reactionary conservative who tends to romantics the past with strong links to National conservatism thinking that came up in the 19th century. He is against Nato, latent anti-americanism, against globalization, for conservative (cultural) values, for nationalistic and cultural identity and against liberal economic ideas.
Alice Weidel is fairly unknown. At first glance she might seem like a moderate, who comes from the liberal wing of the party, due to her personal background. She is living in a same-sex relationship with another woman and a child. She is a management consultant, who lived and work in various foreign countries. She was also against Bernd Höcke staying in the party. Her few public statements don’t really confirm that so. Her remarks about immigration, Islam&other right-wing talking points were harsh. She strikes me as the German version of Geert Wilders.
If they play it smart, they’ll do well despite having relegated Frauke Petry to the second line. They can send Weidel to TV debates/interviews, where she’ll do very well, while Gauland can try to win over conservative voters.
Gauland was member of the CDU till 2013. He is a very conservative far-right nationalist, who doesn’t even seem to be bothered by people who are even further to the right. He is the kind of reactionary conservative who tends to romantics the past with strong links to National conservatism thinking that came up in the 19th century. He is against Nato, latent anti-americanism, against globalization, for conservative (cultural) values, for nationalistic and cultural identity and against liberal economic ideas.
Alice Weidel is fairly unknown. At first glance she might seem like a moderate, who comes from the liberal wing of the party, due to her personal background. She is living in a same-sex relationship with another woman and a child. She is a management consultant, who lived and work in various foreign countries. She was also against Bernd Höcke staying in the party. Her few public statements don’t really confirm that so. Her remarks about immigration, Islam&other right-wing talking points were harsh. She strikes me as the German version of Geert Wilders.
If they play it smart, they’ll do well despite having relegated Frauke Petry to the second line. They can send Weidel to TV debates/interviews, where she’ll do very well, while Gauland can try to win over conservative voters.
Thanks for the summary @PedroMendez!
Lovely stuff about current media darling Martin Schulz. The EU parliament criticized in its latest budget report, that he used questionable methods during his time as parlimantary president to maximize the payments to some of his close aides. He didn’t violate any law, but stretched the rules to its limits. I wouldn’t have expected anything else from a person, who can’t formulate a single sentence without complaining about social and economic injustices. But hey, he is in the right party. After all they have a long history of abusing contract worker, who earned little money doing their administrative work and are now dodging the minimum wage by using the intern exception. I love social justice parties/advocates/NGOs who are constantly contradicting the values that they pretend to stand for. But hey ho. I am the one who hates poor people, so what do I know.
/daily snark-athon
/daily snark-athon
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Today have been regional elections in Schleswig Holstein.
CDU +2%, SPD - 3,7%, GreenParty ~+-0, FDP ~+3%, AfD for the frist time in partliament with about 5,9%.
The Pirate Party lost almost all their votes (-7%) and are out of the parliament. DieLinke are also not able to reach 5%. There is a special rule for the SSW, who represent the Danish minority.
The former coalition, SPD, GreenParty and SSW lost their majority. "Ampel" (SPD+Green+FDP), Jamaika (CDU+Green+FDP) or a GroKo (CDU+SPD) are all possibilites and we'll have to wait to see who is going to govern.
The SPD are considered the big losers, because they couldn't hold on to their coalition despite "Schulz-boost".
CDU +2%, SPD - 3,7%, GreenParty ~+-0, FDP ~+3%, AfD for the frist time in partliament with about 5,9%.
The Pirate Party lost almost all their votes (-7%) and are out of the parliament. DieLinke are also not able to reach 5%. There is a special rule for the SSW, who represent the Danish minority.
The former coalition, SPD, GreenParty and SSW lost their majority. "Ampel" (SPD+Green+FDP), Jamaika (CDU+Green+FDP) or a GroKo (CDU+SPD) are all possibilites and we'll have to wait to see who is going to govern.
The SPD are considered the big losers, because they couldn't hold on to their coalition despite "Schulz-boost".
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Schulz-mania certainly seems to have worn off.
If we do win, don't get carried away. It's a battle. It's never a war won. Every day it's a battle.
anything but another GroKo would be okay with me. The current arrangement is just the death of democracy. Often coalitions on regional level are seen as test for what might happen on national level. So it could be interesting to see how the parties come to terms.CDU coalition, 4th time in a row
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And next week there are elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's largest state. It's a very important election in what used to be the heartland of the SPD. Recent polls have been very close and the results today will probably give a boost to the opposition of the SPD-lead governmen there. This could be a third straight defeat for the SPD. The dynamics have already shifted. When things don't go your way, you drop in the polls, that leads to bad headlines, which lead to dropping polls, which leads to lost elections, which leads to bad headlines, which leads to dropping pools etc. And so one. The SPD desperately needs an event to turn the tables. They had that with the Schulz nominations, but the ridiculous hype quickly turned against them after the surprise defeat in Saarland.
Bracket creep („Kalte Progression“) in Germany - the hidden way to raise taxes for the middle class.
A simple example to illustrate the problem:
In 2005 a public servant in Berlin earned 40k a year. He has to pay €9730 in taxes and has net-income of €30270.
Between 2005 and 2015 his wage increased by €6,320 (thats 15,80%)
In 2015 he earns €46,320 and has to pay now €11,912 in taxes. He has a net-income of €34,408
During this 10 years inflation added up to 15,56%, which means his initial income lost €4.710 in value (30,270*15,56%). So if he’d want to end up +-0, he’d need to earn (net) €34980 (30270+4710). Yet in reality he earns just €34,408. This means that the lost €572 (34980-34408€) in income while the government gets this as additional tax revenue.
Bracket creep is a tax increase, that is build into any non-indexed tax code. If we'd look at a longer time frame, the impact of this becomes truly depressing. Yet even Germany‘s most liberal party is not willing to address this problem. Proposed tax cuts would only give back a fraction of this. And all promises to mitigate it turned out to be bullshit. There is no party, that I could vote for to oppose these continuous tax hikes. Politicians must be having a laugh about the stupidity of voters.
Especially when we’d consider how their salary is going up and up and up. I am too lazy to show you the maths, but on average the spending power of a German MP increased by ~5700€ between 2005 and 2015. In reality, it increased a more, if I’d look at all their income (and not just the taxable part).
In short: feck politicians. They are finding hidden ways to take your money and expect a "thank you", when they are giving parts of it back to buy your vote. Oh, and feck all the voters, who support them.
A simple example to illustrate the problem:
In 2005 a public servant in Berlin earned 40k a year. He has to pay €9730 in taxes and has net-income of €30270.
Between 2005 and 2015 his wage increased by €6,320 (thats 15,80%)
In 2015 he earns €46,320 and has to pay now €11,912 in taxes. He has a net-income of €34,408
During this 10 years inflation added up to 15,56%, which means his initial income lost €4.710 in value (30,270*15,56%). So if he’d want to end up +-0, he’d need to earn (net) €34980 (30270+4710). Yet in reality he earns just €34,408. This means that the lost €572 (34980-34408€) in income while the government gets this as additional tax revenue.
Bracket creep is a tax increase, that is build into any non-indexed tax code. If we'd look at a longer time frame, the impact of this becomes truly depressing. Yet even Germany‘s most liberal party is not willing to address this problem. Proposed tax cuts would only give back a fraction of this. And all promises to mitigate it turned out to be bullshit. There is no party, that I could vote for to oppose these continuous tax hikes. Politicians must be having a laugh about the stupidity of voters.
Especially when we’d consider how their salary is going up and up and up. I am too lazy to show you the maths, but on average the spending power of a German MP increased by ~5700€ between 2005 and 2015. In reality, it increased a more, if I’d look at all their income (and not just the taxable part).
In short: feck politicians. They are finding hidden ways to take your money and expect a "thank you", when they are giving parts of it back to buy your vote. Oh, and feck all the voters, who support them.
Oh. And to add a bit of current relevance:
The MPs of the parliaments in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz recently passed laws to increase their salaries. Their justification was, that their raises should be in line with that of other public servants. Yet their salary was already in line with these raises, so they had to misrepresent the numbers to make it work.
The only parties that voted against it have been ÖDP, FreieWähler (both small parties) and the AfD. Good job.
The MPs of the parliaments in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz recently passed laws to increase their salaries. Their justification was, that their raises should be in line with that of other public servants. Yet their salary was already in line with these raises, so they had to misrepresent the numbers to make it work.
The only parties that voted against it have been ÖDP, FreieWähler (both small parties) and the AfD. Good job.
Aaand the SPD got trashed again in NRW. Barely 30% with an 8% drop from the last election and therefore only second strongest party after the CDU who are above 34% going by the first exit polls.
If that result wouldn't give the feckers from the CDU yet another government it would be quite amusing how the SPD got their asses handed after they were so arrogant just a few weeks ago with the little Schulz hype. Looks like they're depending on "Die Linke" to get into parliament (I'm sure @fcbforever will love that) to stay at least in power as yet another pathetic junior partner in a great coalition, otherwise NRW will have a black and yellow coalition.
AfD 'just' at 7.5% is the only positive from this evening, Greens disastrous and I can't believe that people seem to start falling for the 'liberal' FDP again.
If that result wouldn't give the feckers from the CDU yet another government it would be quite amusing how the SPD got their asses handed after they were so arrogant just a few weeks ago with the little Schulz hype. Looks like they're depending on "Die Linke" to get into parliament (I'm sure @fcbforever will love that) to stay at least in power as yet another pathetic junior partner in a great coalition, otherwise NRW will have a black and yellow coalition.
AfD 'just' at 7.5% is the only positive from this evening, Greens disastrous and I can't believe that people seem to start falling for the 'liberal' FDP again.
So schwarz/gelb in september?
Will be interesting to see is the FDP is up for that.
I sure as hell hope that trainwreck of a party doesn't make it into parliament. AfD will be enough obstruction already.
Would be nice, but I don't think they'll manage to win a majority.
surprising result.
still not decided if Die Linke got 5%.
still not decided if Die Linke got 5%.
Harsh on the SPD that.