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Latest YouGov/Sunday Times results 11th-13th May

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Ed Miliband set for decision on Europe referendum

Shadow ministers urge leader to put pressure on Cameron by promising EU membership poll if Labour win general election

Ed Miliband is being urged by a growing number of shadow cabinet members and senior allies to promise a dramatic in-out referendum on Britain's future membership of the European Union if Labour wins the next general election.

Several figures in the party are pushing the Labour leader to make the pledge well before the next European elections in 2014 to outmanoeuvre David Cameron, who is under heavy pressure to commit the Tory party to a national vote on the issue. The Observer has been told that, after discussions with shadow cabinet members, Miliband is leaving the door open to a referendum – although he is keen to stress that the short-term focus and discussion must be on how to end the current euro crisis.

Allies of the Labour leader say pressure on him to make what would be a historic, high-risk pledge will increase following the appointment of Jon Cruddas, the MP for Dagenham and Rainham, as Labour's policy chief.

Cruddas, a long-time opponent of the euro but otherwise pro-EU, is strongly in favour of an in-out referendum as a means of ending divisive arguments on Europe once and for all. Before his appointment, Cruddas told the People's Pledge campaign for a referendum that the issue was one of "democracy", and said a referendum pledge should be made "immediately, or as quickly as we can". Cruddas is understood to think that such a move would help define Miliband's leadership as bold and distinct from the New Labour years of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

A ComRes opinion poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror showed how Europe is emerging as an issue that could be pivotal at the next election. The poll showed that 26% of Tories now say they will consider voting for the anti-EU Ukip compared to 11% of Labour supporters and 14% of Liberal Democrats. It also showed the extent of anti-EU hostility Labour would need to overcome if a referendum were held now, with 46% of voters saying they would vote to leave the EU compared with 30% who would vote to stay in.

If Labour did commit to a referendum, the party leadership would campaign vigorously in favour of a vote to stay in – a stance that would be supported by most Labour members.

A referendum would, however, leave the Tories divided, with the party leadership certain to campaign for a vote to remain in the EU, while many MPs and grassroots Conservatives would want to leave. One shadow cabinet member said: "We should have the confidence to say we think we can win this and get on with it. There are issues of timing, about when we make the decision and when one would be held. But it certainly is no longer heresy to talk about it."

A spokesman for Miliband did not deny that the option was being considered, stressing merely that "our position is that we don't think this is what Europe needs at the moment".

Last week, in a sign that the Labour party is gradually preparing the ground for a referendum pledge, shadow chancellor Ed Balls said there could be a case in future, for calling a national vote when the current euro crisis was over and the shape of the new Europe was known. This followed similar comments from former cabinet minister and European commissioner Lord Mandelson.

On Thursday Peter Hain, a former Europe minister who stepped down from the shadow cabinet last week but who remains loyal to Miliband, said on BBC1's Question Time that he believed the British people would deserve a say when the time was right. "I think the way things are going people in Britain probably want to make up their minds about whether to stay in Europe or not," he said. "I don't think we should be frightened about giving people a vote."

Sources said that Hain would never have spoken out on the EU issue had he felt such remarks would have been unhelpful to Miliband, or significantly out of kilter with the Labour leader's own views.

Miliband is said to be genuinely undecided and cautious – not least because of the possibility that the country could vote to leave the EU. He is also being advised by some that the move could be seen as crudely opportunistic at a time of crisis in the EU.

Others say that it could put off Liberal Democrats who might otherwise come over to Labour.

Labour enthusiasts for a referendum stress, however, that it would not in any way amount to a watering down of Labour's commitment to the EU. On the contrary, it would be an opportunity to argue the positive case for membership during a national campaign – one that would also help the party build alliances with pro-EU elements of the business community.

While a minority of Labour MPs might want to leave the EU, highlighting divisions within Labour, they say a referendum would cause far deeper splits in the Tory party.

The People's Pledge, which draws support from all political parties, has announced it will hold more local referendums in three Greater Manchester constituencies, Withington, Cheadle and Hazel Grove, asking people if they want a national vote.

The seats, one in Manchester and two in Stockport, are all represented by Liberal Democrat MPs: John Leech, Mark Hunter and Andrew Stunnell, respectively. This follows its local referendum in Thurrock last month where 89.9% of people who voted backed a referendum.

Ian McKenzie, director of the People's Pledge, said: "The people of Thurrock set the pace last month by voting in huge numbers for a referendum. Voters in Manchester Withington, Cheadle and Hazel Grove now have the chance to quicken that pace towards a national referendum for the rest of us."
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/20/ed-miliband-eu-membership-referendum

This would be a ballsy move if it happens, Cameron would surely have little choice but to go along with it.
 
It's a shit idea that will end up with us leaving the EU just to feck the Tories up

Admittedly, that's the best reason I can think of for leaving the EU... but still
 
Plechazunga said:
It's a shit idea that will end up with us leaving the EU just to feck the Tories up

Admittedly, that's the best reason I can think of for leaving the EU... but still
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Nah. At the start of campaigning before the last vote in '75 the opinion polls were showing two thirds of people wanted to leave the common market. By the time of the vote, when people had been made to really think about it and consider how many jobs would be lost, the vote had swung completely to two thirds voting to stay in.

I've been waiting for a referendum for years as a spread-betting opportunity, and if it comes I'll pile in with everything I've got, expecting a very similar result.
 
It won't happen, that's just a briefing from someone in the shadow cabinet who wants to push Ed on it. There's no chance of him offering one when he's doing just fine without the need for such a populist move.
 
Fivelive's On The Money programme was discussing the plans for reducing red tape for businesses last night. The panel of readily acknowledged that conditions on the continent were restrictive to the point of being a disincentive, however were equally in agreement that the present state of regulation in the UK was already quite flexible and no effect would be felt by them or could be foreseen more generally in the short to medium term.


One of the few times over the last two years that the Tory approval rating was noticeably out front and centre came during Cameron's bit of theatre surrounding the veto, Labour's attempts at mischief could just as easily backfire. Maybe try that tctic ahead of the EU elections but now? Besides, Labour's u-turn over a Lisbon Treaty referendum is surely still much too recent.

EUrosceptics on the back benches don't usually require much encouragement to make their voices heard either.
 
It would backfire spectacularly, and Ed should stop whoever is briefing from doing so. We'll get to the stage where we have to offer one because it'll become our 'unofficial' position. Then it'll let Cameron in to offer one if he so wishes (though that's a long way off).
 
Most people who are Eurosceptic to the point of wanting to leave the European Union are so due to beliefs on nationality and sovereignty, or on the grounds of bureaucracy or regulation which puts both groupings firmly in the right wing camp hence Eurosceptic support has flowed right to UKIP as opposed to left to Labour.

I have been expecting for the last year or so that the next Conservative manifesto would include an in/out referendum due to the UKIP conundrum considering in that time the PM vetoed an EU treaty and legislation was passed preventing any transfer of sovereignty without a referendum which have not led to any quelling of such fervour.
 
A very tribal PMQs today.

Cameron called Ed Balls a muttering idiot, although later had to withdraw the idiot part for form's sake.

Miliband threw in a "nasty Tories" for good measure.
 
I'm not a Tory supporter, but Milliband is such an odious little cnut that I have no idea what to do. It's as if Labour are doing everything in their power to drive my vote away.
 
The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the first three months of the year, worse than previously estimated.


For those that may have doubted we were in a double dip recession , there is no doubt now.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
A very tribal PMQs today.

Cameron called Ed Balls a muttering idiot, although later ahd to withdraw the idiot part for form's sake.

Miliband threw in a "nasty Tories" for good measure.
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:lol:

I wish our parliament was as fun to watch!
 
Isn't it nice to see the eton boys having a good old time? Wouldn't want them to take running the country too seriously now would we.
 
Labour as the measure of Cameron. Wind him up and watch him explode.
 
Any of you see Salmond's speech earlier? Lacked the usual vim and bombast.

I'm not sure "Why not?" or "Why cant Scotland?" js goig to be enough to win his case but then that is good IMO.
 
It's not like she actually does anything, losing her would probably harm the Tories, do they have any other ethnic minorities to shove in front of Cameras every now and again on inconsequential issues?
 
Silva said:
It's not like she actually does anything, losing her would probably harm the Tories, do they have any other ethnic minorities to shove in front of Cameras every now and again on inconsequential issues?
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That cretin Priti Patel perhaps.
 
George Osborne's stock as a political strategist has really fallen, and its mostly his fault. The Budget was a disaster.
 
You have to laugh at the sheer number of policies being brought in with such conviction and then dropped unceremoniously a couple of unhappy weeks later. I think the papers said that the last one was number 26. Not so much a series of U turns it's more like they are stuck on the inside lane of a roundabout.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
You have to laugh at the sheer number of policies being brought in with such conviction and then dropped unceremoniously a couple of unhappy weeks later. I think the papers said that the last one was number 26. Not so much a series of U turns it's more like they are stuck on the inside lane of a roundabout.
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That isn't particularly fair though as you have to consider the weight and value of the policies that have been reversed in question, they have mostly been inconsequential in the grand scheme with particular reference to ideological or emotional underpinning.

Now contrast that with the Government's central agenda - in the face of poor polling numbers, waves of strikes and lessening optimism about the economy they haven't moved away at all from their balanced budget policy and the measures required to get us there. The same applies to public sector reform, the liberalisation of provision of services, the introduction of free schools, NHS reform, the complete reorganisation and major empowerment of local government and the first systematic overhaul of social security since our idea of the safety net came into being.
 
Or rather no conviction and assurance at all. Too many marginals up for grabs and a core vote of uncertain enthusiasm.

Still, there is a referendum over the continuance of the union to win first and foremost. One which Cameron should stay clear of in the main.
 
Am I the only one who detests what Owen Jones writes? He's got some bizarre fantasy that Labour can go back to writing suicide notes for our manifesto.
 
MJLD said:
Am I the only one who detests what Owen Jones writes? He's got some bizarre fantasy that Labour can go back to writing suicide notes for our manifesto.
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I do really like him, but I'm as left as they come. His views replicate my own.

I do enjoy reading similar thoughts from the right wing though, it's just opinion and propaganda.

My favourite blog writers are, weirdly, probably the Telegraphs. Their daily updates from Brogan etc are brilliantly done. In the Guardian, only Toynbee and Monbiot are what I wait for.
 
Tax relief for charitable donations is also a handy avoidance method for some, of course were in addition throwing the baby out with the bath water. I thought politicians preferred the easy and the simple where possible?

I've heard During his regular pundit slot on 5Live for a few years, a terribly blinkered view most of the time. And yes annoying.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Tax relief for charitable donations is also a handy avoidance method for some, of course were in addition throwing the baby out with the bath water. I thought politicians preferred the easy and the simple where possible?
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That's what the government said at budget time.

Now they need to explain. Were they wrong? Don't they care anymore? or is it just too difficult a problem to deal with? If the answer's the last, then fair enough, some things are, but having started this off they need to explain where they are now.
 
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