Russia Discussion

It will probably take a new revolution or something comparable to the dissolution of the Soviet Union to get Russia back on track.

1. Putin has to go
2. A breakup of the corrupt Kleptocratic, patronage network that has emerged under Yeltsin and solidified under Putin
3. New multiple party elections that are transparent, inclusive, and credible to Russian citizens and the international community
4. Reforms in governance that allow for a vibrant civil society to emerge, and which encourage greater freedoms for media organizations and minority groups
5. A complete cessation of agitation within internationally recognized Ukrainian territory.

This would allow Russia back into the fold and set it up for success in the coming decades. Conversely, another few years of Putin, corruption, homogenous nationalism, and neo imperialism will almost surely lead Russia to ruin.
 
Raoul said:
It will probably take a new revolution or something comparable to the dissolution of the Soviet Union to get Russia back on track.

1. Putin has to go
2. A breakup of the corrupt Kleptocratic, patronage network that has emerged under Yeltsin and solidified under Putin
3. New multiple party elections that are transparent, inclusive, and credible to Russian citizens and the international community
4. Reforms in governance that allow for a vibrant civil society to emerge, and which encourage greater freedoms for media organizations and minority groups
5. A complete cessation of agitation within internationally recognized Ukrainian territory.

This would allow Russia back into the fold and set it up for success in the coming decades. Conversely, another few years of Putin, corruption, homogenous nationalism, and neo imperialism will almost surely lead Russia to ruin.
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What worries me the most is that these people have enormous influence outside Russia as well as within it. Sanctions against the Russian government is one thing but I can't see the UK government wanting to get on the wrong side of the billionaires who own property in London and who've put their kids into the British private school system by attempting to impact the change you mention. At the same time I see little chance of Russia undergoing that kind of change on its own (although I'm no expert)
 
jeff_goldblum said:
What worries me the most is that these people have enormous influence outside Russia as well as within it. Sanctions against the Russian government is one thing but I can't see the UK government wanting to get on the wrong side of the billionaires who own property in London and who've put their kids into the British private school system by attempting to impact the change you mention. At the same time I see little chance of Russia undergoing that kind of change on its own (although I'm no expert)
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I don't think its every wealthy Russian who happens to own property in London. A majority of them are probably more interested in retaining their wealth and as such, when possible, will opt to distance their perceived involvement with Putin rather than go on a sanctions list.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think its every wealthy Russian who happens to own property in London. A majority of them are probably more interested in retaining their wealth and as such, when possible, will opt to distance their perceived involvement with Putin rather than go on a sanctions list.
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Ah, I was under the impression that quite a few of super-rich in Russia were in some way affiliated with Putin, or moved in the same circles during the Soviet-era and had some kind of understanding.
 
They are affiliated with him in the sense that if they opposed him in any public way, they would probably find themselves on the wrong end of a corruption investigation inside Russia. On the other hand, they don't have to vocally support him, which will allow them to strike a balance between being too friendly with Putin and having their assets sanctioned by Europe or the US.
 
jeff_goldblum said:
Ah, I was under the impression that quite a few of super-rich in Russia were in some way affiliated with Putin, or moved in the same circles during the Soviet-era and had some kind of understanding.
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The beeb did a documentary on this, which seemed to imply there were more that just wanted to get out while they could than Putin Allies looking to incentivise the UK into being all pally.
 
Sir Matt said:
:lol: Shocking. It's amazing that literally every person who opposes Putin is a criminal.
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Putin is not going to go until he completely drags Russia into the sewer. Boris Nemtsov's daughter is apparently leaving Russia because of the climate of terror Putin has generated.

http://news.yahoo.com/nemtsovs-daughter-quits-russia-amid-climate-terror-110914891.html

"Putin's information machine -- similar to those in Nazi Germany and Rwanda -- is using criminal methods of propaganda and sowing hatred which generates violence and terror."
 
Raoul said:
Putin is not going to go until he completely drags Russia into the sewer. Boris Nemtsov's daughter is apparently leaving Russia because of the climate of terror Putin has generated.

http://news.yahoo.com/nemtsovs-daughter-quits-russia-amid-climate-terror-110914891.html

"Putin's information machine -- similar to those in Nazi Germany and Rwanda -- is using criminal methods of propaganda and sowing hatred which generates violence and terror."
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It doesn't help when the Russian public eat it up.

http://www.wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=1087

62% of the people depend on Russian TV for their news.
75% of them trust what Russian TV tells them.
13% of them trust what Foreign media tells them.
55% of them trust Russian TV over any other source.

I bet the Soviets wish their people had been so trusting before the collapse of the Soviet Union. They'd still be in power. :lol:
 
In all of this, I am quite disappointed that we haven't seen any of Gorbachev's ideological disciples emerge onto the political scene in Russia after 20+ years. It would have been very special to see someone like that coming on with charisma and preaching for a second coming of the Glasnost.
 
Kakeru said:
In all of this, I am quite disappointed that we haven't seen any of Gorbachev's ideological disciples emerge onto the political scene in Russia after 20+ years. It would have been very special to see someone like that coming on with charisma and preaching for a second coming of the Glasnost.
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But many Russians see the fall of the Soviet Union as a negative thing. 69% in fact. They want a return to the prestige of being a superpower despite not being capable of it. Putin wasn't in Russia during glasnost (he was in Dresden) so doesn't seem to grasp the benefits of it, which is why he's so keen to go back to the ways of the Soviet Union when it comes to governance. Seemingly, the people of Russia want whatever Putin wants. It's magical when you have control over the population with state controlled media. Just look at how opinion changed as Russia's message changed. Opinions of Germany, the EU, NATO, and US all started tanking once Putin returned to the presidency.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/10/2-russian-public-opinion-putin-praised-west-panned/
 
Kakeru said:
In all of this, I am quite disappointed that we haven't seen any of Gorbachev's ideological disciples emerge onto the political scene in Russia after 20+ years. It would have been very special to see someone like that coming on with charisma and preaching for a second coming of the Glasnost.
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Unfortunately, anyone challenging Putin with any degree of effectiveness will swiftly find themselves on the wrong end of a corruption investigation. Just shows what a totalitarian condition he has turned Russia into in order to stay in power.
 
Raoul said:
It will probably take a new revolution or something comparable to the dissolution of the Soviet Union to get Russia back on track.

1. Putin has to go
.
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He is 62 now so realistically I think he is going to be around (health permitting) for a while.
I believe his current term runs 2012-2016 and lets be honest i think we all expect him to be in power 2016-2020 as well

the interesting thing will be what happens then - he will be 67 at the end of that term and will he then want to step aside? Will he change the constitution to allow a third term? or will he install somebody else and assume power from the prime minister role (again as he did 2008 -2012).

Given the grip he has on power it is hard to see a successor taking over unless it is one hand picked by Putin himself and apparently the most likely candidate is Sergey Shoygu (though he is only two years younger than Putin)... worryingly this is the defence minister who has overseen the whole crimea / ukraine fighting and has already has a criminal case open in Ukraine against him and just as a bit of an insight to the man he has a collection of samurai swords worth $40m (quite how he got the money or why he needs so many swords I'm not sure but neither strike me as reasons to think he would be any different / better than Putin)
 
sun_tzu said:
He is 62 now so realistically I think he is going to be around (health permitting) for a while.
I believe his current term runs 2012-2016 and lets be honest i think we all expect him to be in power 2016-2020 as well

the interesting thing will be what happens then - he will be 67 at the end of that term and will he then want to step aside? Will he change the constitution to allow a third term? or will he install somebody else and assume power from the prime minister role (again as he did 2008 -2012).

Given the grip he has on power it is hard to see a successor taking over unless it is one hand picked by Putin himself and apparently the most likely candidate is Sergey Shoygu (though he is only two years younger than Putin)... worryingly this is the defence minister who has overseen the whole crimea / ukraine fighting and has already has a criminal case open in Ukraine against him and just as a bit of an insight to the man he has a collection of samurai swords worth $40m (quite how he got the money or why he needs so many swords I'm not sure but neither strike me as reasons to think he would be any different / better than Putin)
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He will stay until he is deposed imo. He can't simply leave office like proper Democratic leaders do, because he would almost certainly be prosecuted for overseeing 15-20 years of Mafia style, state sponsored corruption, which is really what the Ukraine invasion and theft of Crimea is all about - a device to obfuscate the attention of the Russian public from internal corruption to glorious external neo-imperialism.
 
Raoul said:
He will stay until he is deposed imo. He can't simply leave office like proper Democratic leaders do, because he would almost certainly be prosecuted for overseeing 15-20 years of Mafia style, state sponsored corruption, which is really what the Ukraine invasion and theft of Crimea is all about - a device to obfuscate the attention of the Russian public from internal corruption to glorious external neo-imperialism.
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I dont know - I have a feeling that 2020 after the world cup in Russia if he can handpick a success or knowing that there will be nobody looking into the past then I could see him taking a step back - afterall by that point he will have taken half of the ukraine, have the gas and oil lines built to china securing the economy and have had a world cup there to cement Russias place in the international sporting scene.

It may not happen like that at all but it does seem a fairly natural exit point for him?
 
sun_tzu said:
I dont know - I have a feeling that 2020 after the world cup in Russia if he can handpick a success or knowing that there will be nobody looking into the past then I could see him taking a step back - afterall by that point he will have taken half of the ukraine, have the gas and oil lines built to china securing the economy and have had a world cup there to cement Russias place in the international sporting scene.

It may not happen like that at all but it does seem a fairly natural exit point for him?
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He will almost certainly handpick his successor, who will probably be someone from the St Petersburg posse where Putin himself came from. If he did, he would have to have complete confidence that the successor would not turn around and prosecute him. The ideal situation for Putin would be for him to stay in power, whilst pulling the strings from the background, much as he did during Medvedev's term as President. Short of that, if economic conditions in Russia continue to worsen, I wouldn't at all be shocked if the elites launched a coup to stabilize relations with the West.
 
Sir Matt said:
It doesn't help when the Russian public eat it up.

http://www.wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=1087

62% of the people depend on Russian TV for their news.
75% of them trust what Russian TV tells them.
13% of them trust what Foreign media tells them.
55% of them trust Russian TV over any other source.

I bet the Soviets wish their people had been so trusting before the collapse of the Soviet Union. They'd still be in power. :lol:
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Hilarious. Care to produce figures regarding Fox News?

Sir Matt said:
:lol: Shocking. It's amazing that literally every person who opposes Putin is a criminal.
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It's amazing that literally any country that doesn't bend over for the west is a rogue state.

Raoul said:
Putin is not going to go until he completely drags Russia into the sewer. Boris Nemtsov's daughter is apparently leaving Russia because of the climate of terror Putin has generated.

http://news.yahoo.com/nemtsovs-daughter-quits-russia-amid-climate-terror-110914891.html

"Putin's information machine -- similar to those in Nazi Germany and Rwanda -- is using criminal methods of propaganda and sowing hatred which generates violence and terror."
Click to expand...

Our media is so different isn't it? It gives a fair and unbiased look, or it peddles the narrative our governments sells as a means to hype fear and sell clicks.

I always tell myself I won't come back to this thread, I always do, and I always regret it. The usual suspects are patting each other on the back in a never ending circle-jerk of "Russia evil, our shit don't stink" self congratulatory silliness.
 
Nucks said:
Hilarious. Care to produce figures regarding Fox News?



It's amazing that literally any country that doesn't bend over for the west is a rogue state.



Our media is so different isn't it? It gives a fair and unbiased look, or it peddles the narrative our governments sells as a means to hype fear and sell clicks.

I always tell myself I won't come back to this thread, I always do, and I always regret it. The usual suspects are patting each other on the back in a never ending circle-jerk of "Russia evil, our shit don't stink" self congratulatory silliness.
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1. Here you go:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...y-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2173

When asked, "Do you trust the journalistic coverage provided by FOX News," 20 percent of U.S. voters say "a great deal" and 35 percent say "somewhat." Scores for other networks are:
  • NBC News - 14 percent "a great deal" and 46 percent "somewhat;"
  • ABC News - 14 percent "a great deal" and 50 percent "somewhat;"
  • CBS News - 14 percent "a great deal" and 50 percent "somewhat;"
  • MSNBC - 11 percent "a great deal" and 41 percent "somewhat;"
  • CNN - 18 percent "a great deal" and 43 percent "somewhat."
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More broad numbers on US trust in news media:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/1663/media-use-evaluation.aspx

Happy now? I've repeatedly shown data in this thread that demonstrates there is a substantial difference between American public trust in media and that of Russians. Yet Putin's fanboys continue to equate the two and deny there's a difference.

2. How is this relevant to all of Putin's opponents ending up imprisoned or dead again? I'm not seeing your connection. Is this just a non sequitur?
 
Nucks said:
Hilarious. Care to produce figures regarding Fox News?



It's amazing that literally any country that doesn't bend over for the west is a rogue state.



Our media is so different isn't it? It gives a fair and unbiased look, or it peddles the narrative our governments sells as a means to hype fear and sell clicks.

I always tell myself I won't come back to this thread, I always do, and I always regret it. The usual suspects are patting each other on the back in a never ending circle-jerk of "Russia evil, our shit don't stink" self congratulatory silliness.
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Our media is very different, yes. And Fox News does not equate to the entire Western media - that's just whataboutery. Do you ever watch Russian news (the real stuff for domestic consumption, not RT)?
 
sun_tzu said:
He is 62 now so realistically I think he is going to be around (health permitting) for a while.
I believe his current term runs 2012-2016 and lets be honest i think we all expect him to be in power 2016-2020 as well

the interesting thing will be what happens then - he will be 67 at the end of that term and will he then want to step aside? Will he change the constitution to allow a third term? or will he install somebody else and assume power from the prime minister role (again as he did 2008 -2012).

Given the grip he has on power it is hard to see a successor taking over unless it is one hand picked by Putin himself and apparently the most likely candidate is Sergey Shoygu (though he is only two years younger than Putin)... worryingly this is the defence minister who has overseen the whole crimea / ukraine fighting and has already has a criminal case open in Ukraine against him and just as a bit of an insight to the man he has a collection of samurai swords worth $40m (quite how he got the money or why he needs so many swords I'm not sure but neither strike me as reasons to think he would be any different / better than Putin)
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Not smart enough to buy the real deal samurai spear collection is all I'm thinking.
 
Nucks said:
Hilarious. Care to produce figures regarding Fox News?



It's amazing that literally any country that doesn't bend over for the west is a rogue state.



Our media is so different isn't it? It gives a fair and unbiased look, or it peddles the narrative our governments sells as a means to hype fear and sell clicks.

I always tell myself I won't come back to this thread, I always do, and I always regret it. The usual suspects are patting each other on the back in a never ending circle-jerk of "Russia evil, our shit don't stink" self congratulatory silliness.
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Hard to not laugh out loud at this. Fox is one of a myriad of channels in the west who push a variety of different narratives. That's obviously different than state run media in an authoritarian country where the dictator's narrative reigns supreme and anyone who opposes him finds themselves imprisoned or assassinated.
 
MoskvaRed said:
Our media is very different, yes. And Fox News does not equate to the entire Western media - that's just whataboutery. Do you ever watch Russian news (the real stuff for domestic consumption, not RT)?
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What's your sense for the popular feeling amongst the people there for the Putin? It's been too long since I was there (I still miss it terribly) and I don't quite trust my impressions anymore, or even reports I read from there. He obviously still seems sufficiently popular at election times, but is there perhaps an under-reported silent majority out there that isn't mobilized? Is there a sizeable well read, more liberal younger bloc, that may be politically disaffected or muffled? There was before, but I can't fool myself that I any longer have any sort of reasonable impression of people's political beliefs there.
 
brad-dyrak said:
What's your sense for the popular feeling amongst the people there for the Putin? It's been too long since I was there (I still miss it terribly) and I don't quite trust my impressions anymore, or even reports I read from there. He obviously still seems sufficiently popular at election times, but is there perhaps an under-reported silent majority out there that isn't mobilized? Is there a sizeable well read, more liberal younger bloc, that may be politically disaffected or muffled? There was before, but I can't fool myself that I any longer have any sort of reasonable impression of people's political beliefs there.
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First a disclaimer - my username is now a bit of a misnomer as I left Moscow in February. Even if I were still there, I'd find it hard to answer your question. You'll certainly find many people with little love for Putin inside the Garden Ring and among the professional classes, although none seem to have any idea how a change of regime (or even direction) might be brought about. At the same time, nearly all Russians I've met think Crimea is rightfully theirs and many have thinly disguised contempt for the idea of Ukraine as a genuinely independent country. To summarise it crudely, most Russians seem to have bought the Russia as victim narrative spun by state TV (with Putin's response seen as a necessary reaction to NATO expansion and the "American-sponsored coup" in Kiev) and even the liberal, pro-European elite would not necessarily share European views on Ukraine and other CIS countries. I think things will be easier once the post-Soviet generation takes over (in 10 years?) but history suggests there will always be some degree of tension between Russia and the rest of Europe.
 
MoskvaRed said:
First a disclaimer - my username is now a bit of a misnomer as I left Moscow in February. Even if I were still there, I'd find it hard to answer your question. You'll certainly find many people with little love for Putin inside the Garden Ring and among the professional classes, although none seem to have any idea how a change of regime (or even direction) might be brought about. At the same time, nearly all Russians I've met think Crimea is rightfully theirs and many have thinly disguised contempt for the idea of Ukraine as a genuinely independent country. To summarise it crudely, most Russians seem to have bought the Russia as victim narrative spun by state TV (with Putin's response seen as a necessary reaction to NATO expansion and the "American-sponsored coup" in Kiev) and even the liberal, pro-European elite would not necessarily share European views on Ukraine and other CIS countries. I think things will be easier once the post-Soviet generation takes over (in 10 years?) but history suggests there will always be some degree of tension between Russia and the rest of Europe.
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I guess that all sounds about like what I'd expected. I guess I still have some sort of intuition for it.

God damn I miss my time there, but it wouldn't be the same now. I may have been more at home there than anywhere else I've lived.
 
The House of Representatives unanimously adopted amendments to the US 2016 defense budget proposal, outlawing training and arming of Ukraine’s notorious paramilitary “Azov” battalion.

Proposed by John Conyers (D-Mich.) and Ted Yoho (R-Fla.), the amendments to HR 2685, the “Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 2015, refer to “Azov” battalion as an “openly neo-Nazi” and “fascist,” and prohibit US instructors from training or arming the controversial unit.

The amendments, intended to “protect civilians from dangers of arming and training foreign forces,” also ban US exports of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft rockets, known as MANPADS, to Iraq and Ukraine.

 
Raoul said:
All ginned up by Putin's propaganda. The referendum is not recognized internationally because it was coerced onto the population by the Russian plan to grab Crimea. The vast majority of the UN rejected it spare a handful of despotic regimes who are in bed with Putin's Russia. The best indicator that it was all fabricated by Russian intervention is that none of it existed before the Revolution, at which point Russian operatives began fomenting fake successionism in Crimea and Donbass because Putin realized his corrupt proxy, Yanukovych had been chased out of the country. Putin never respected Ukraine as a country and merely viewed it as a fake nation state that was created out "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century", the collapse of the Soviet Union. A non Russian leaning Ukraine is a serious threat to his long term strategic goal of unifying the former Soviet states, which is precisely why he took action and used fake nonsense like "the fascists are coming" in Ukraine to lie his way to a Sudetenland style land grab. Once the Russian economy completely implodes, all the propaganda he's been spewing to Russian citizens will quickly unravel and he will be held to account.
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Raoul said:
But of course. Russia has no part in this. Its all about the free will of ethnic russians who decided to succeed to avoid being slaughtered by fascists.
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Raoul said:
They also helped topple the Ukrainian government to allow fascists to take over.
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Raoul said:
A lot of crazy nationalism has been drummed up by a massive propaganda campaign, which was easy since the state controls most media. Its then used to flog an orgy of lies such as the Fascists are coming, Kiev Junta etc.
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Where are they ? All we see are invading Russian soldiers in Donbass.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alexander-motyl/putin-calls-ukraine-fasci_b_6600292.html

fascism.png
 
Khodorkovsky hits the nail square on the head.....

Putin's confrontation with West 'artificial': dissident Khodorkovsky

"The current confrontation with the West is absolutely artificial."

"The cooling of relations has been inspired by those Russian elites who want to hold on to power. They desperately need an image of an enemy who would distract the attention of the populace from the corruption and inefficiency that exists in the power."

"Unfortunately, there can be no talk of any new strategic rapprochement while Putin remains in power."

..... http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/18/us-russia-khodorkovsky-usa-idUSKBN0OY00920150618
 
I'm no Putin fan, but my own assessment is he's got the West on a butty at the moment.
Huge support at home, which foreign 'aggression' and sanctions will only solidify, yes, that's the way it works.
He knows the West will eventually come to him for agreement on how to defeat the Islamists. Which he wants to do anyway of course, but he will charge because he can.
 
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712 said:
I'm no Putin fan, but my own assessment is he's got the West on a butty at the moment.
Huge support at home, which foreign 'aggression' and sanctions will only solidify, yes, that's the way it works.
He knows the West will eventually come to him for agreement on how to defeat the Islamists. Which he wants to do anyway of course, but he will charge because he can.
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On the surface perhaps, but once you wade through the propaganda, there are probably more than a few Oligarchs and normal Russian citizens who are feeling the pinch of sanctions. This is causing a lot of internal insecurity and forcing Putin to tighten his grip even further. Its all going to end for him at some point as the current path isn't sustainable.
 
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