Russia Discussion

This is scary shit, if Russia does go to war over Crimea, it will get very big very quick.

I can't see it that way. Ukraine don't have the capabilities to hold off Russia, heck Russia have Crimea now as it is. The UK won't even impose trade sanctions on them (I presume the rest of the G8 will take a similar stance), in which case Russia pretty much has free reign over that part of the world. At worst Russia will get a slap on the wrist and told not to take anymore land after Crimea.
 
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South Ossetia was Georgian territory and defected. Georgia "invaded" what they considered to be their territory, Russia retaliated. The primary reason Russia retaliated is because on the wider scheme of things, Georgia is a close ally of the US. Otherwise they wouldn't have been interested.

South Ossetia, an independent partially recognized republic in the South Caucasus, formerly the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast within the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republicwith its capital in Tskhinvali, held a referendum on independence on November 12, 2006. The voters answered the question: "should South Ossetia preserve its present status of a de facto independent state?" 99% of voters supported independence. It coincided with de facto South Ossetian presidential elections, which took place on the same day.

99% of South Ossetians considered themselves independent yet Georgia considered it to be their territory and interestingly the EU did not consider the referendum valid - wonder if a referendum did happen in Crimea how would the EU react if there was majority opinion to join Russia - Russia is damned if it holds a farce referendum, and damned if it does not wait for a referendum and instead invades and annexes Russian majority areas

Russia retaliated because South Ossetia is majority Russian and falls within it's sphere of influence, same as Crimea

Again, not saying what Russia is doing is correct - but Russia has not yet invaded any area which does not have a significant Russian population - their modus operandi is to give passports to these people when they are still citizens of another country, and then later move in claiming to defend Russian people. It is a farce alright - in execution - but even the staunchest anti Russia crusaders would recognize that Ukraine is on the brink of a civil war and the pro EU and pro Russia factions will harm each other, so Russia is partially right in being worried about the safety of pro Russia Ukrainians

They have gone about it in the wrong way, but so have n number of western regimes who preach democracy when it suits them, only to prop up friendly dictatorships when "democracy" is achieved - wonder what is happening to Libya right now? Or Iraq, or any of the South American regimes of the past?

How does the average Brit support Falklands and yet not support Crimea when they essentially are the same thing is beyond me - if anything the Falklands is geographically distant from the UK and can still be called a de facto colony, when on the other hand Crimea was part of Russia for the last 250 odd years

Mind numbing double standards at play
 
Nice one, let's just wait to have a hundred people murdered and rendered homeless before we go in with the troops.

This is nonsense. Crimea is overwhelimingly ethnic Russian and the population would have none of it. Which if course is a moot point because there was never such a threat in the first place. Its trumped up Bullshit used to justify a military takeover of Crimea.
 
This is nonsense. Crimea is overwhelimingly ethnic Russian and the population would have none of it. Which if course is a moot point because there was never such a threat in the first place. Its trumped up Bullshit used to justify a military takeover of Crimea.

Ukraine is in disarray and the 'overwhelmingly' ethnic Russian population wants to be a part of Russia. What do you suggest Russia do then?
 
Ukraine is in disarray and the 'overwhelmingly' ethnic Russian population wants to be a part of Russia. What do you suggest Russia do then?

If there is such an interest they could pursue the switch through a referendum. My earlier point was meant to address the Putin government fabricated lie that citizens of Crimea were in danger.
 
If there is such an interest they could pursue the switch through a referendum. My earlier point was meant to address the Putin government fabricated lie that citizens of Crimea were in danger.

I'd hope that everyone knows there is only one reason for this and that is that without some presence in the Black Sea, Russia's status as a world power is severely diminished.
 
This is nonsense. Crimea is overwhelimingly ethnic Russian and the population would have none of it. Which if course is a moot point because there was never such a threat in the first place. Its trumped up Bullshit used to justify a military takeover of Crimea.
What happened to that "pre-emptive strike" mentality?
 
If there is such an interest they could pursue the switch through a referendum. My earlier point was meant to address the Putin government fabricated lie that citizens of Crimea were in danger.

I thought it was relatively straightforward. Russia felt that given the unstable Ukraine government, it had to protect it's own interests in areas where the Russian ethnic population was very high and has obtained the deployment of Russian troops in the area. Ukraine has been a bloodbath for a while, it's not exactly breaking news that the law and order was collapsing. Every day, the situation worsened and nobody gave a damn, including the West, which was understandable as the bill would be hefty. Russia decided that it'll send it's troops to Crimea and everybody loses their mind and it must have all been a sinister plan by Putin to annex Crimea.

If Mexico or Ireland descend into a Ukraine like farce, do you see a situation when UK or US will not send it's troops?
 
I'd hope that everyone knows there is only one reason for this and that is that without some presence in the Black Sea, Russia's status as a world power is severely diminished.


Oh yes the age old Russian dream of having a warm water port for its fleet. Of course the abundance of oil in southern and eastern Ukraine plays a role in it all also. Without oil and other natural resource money Russia would never have recovered so quickly from the Soviet Unions collapse. And of course we know Western Governments have keen interst in places that have lots of oil, no denying that.

Of course the ideal outcome for all of this is Ukraine get a new election, get a government in place willing to take money from both Russia and the West while telling them to both go jump in the lake in regards to any military treaties, alliances, etc. It will never happen, but one can dream.
 
I thought it was relatively straightforward. Russia felt that given the unstable Ukraine government, it had to protect it's own interests in areas where the Russian ethnic population was very high and has obtained the deployment of Russian troops in the area. Ukraine has been a bloodbath for a while, it's not exactly breaking news that the law and order was collapsing. Every day, the situation worsened and nobody gave a damn, including the West, which was understandable as the bill would be hefty. Russia decided that it'll send it's troops to Crimea and everybody loses their mind and it must have all been a sinister plan by Putin to annex Crimea.

If Mexico or Ireland descend into a Ukraine like farce, do you see a situation when UK or US will not send it's troops?

You forget that the people of Crimea are primarily Ukrainian citizens and Crimea, whether some like it or not, is officially part of Ukraine (although its somewhat semi-autonomous). Russia therefore is unilaterally sending troops into a foreign country, which is generally frowned upon. And yes I realize what the US did in Iraq. Two wrongs don't make a right.
 
You forget that the people of Crimea are primarily Ukrainian citizens and Crimea, whether some like it or not, is officially part of Ukraine (although its somewhat semi-autonomous). Russia therefore is unilaterally sending troops into a foreign country, which is generally frowned upon. And yes I realize what the US did in Iraq. Two wrongs don't make a right.

The people in Crimea are overwhelmingly in favour of a Russian intrusion there, which basically offers the premise for every foreign army presence. Why did Obama ask the Congress for intervention in Syria? It's true he got turned down, but what if the Congress approved it?
 
You forget that the people of Crimea are primarily Ukrainian citizens and Crimea, whether some like it or not, is officially part of Ukraine (although its somewhat semi-autonomous). Russia therefore is unilaterally sending troops into a foreign country, which is generally frowned upon. And yes I realize what the US did in Iraq. Two wrongs don't make a right.
Don't they:

a- have a treaty that allows them to send troops.
b- have the permission of the local (elected) government to mobilise some forces.

I don't think these are minor details. In fact you can't even compare this to the Iraq war, where neither a nor b (nor c- fear of imminent civil war breaking out) was applicable.
 
Oh yes the age old Russian dream of having a warm water port for its fleet. Of course the abundance of oil in southern and eastern Ukraine plays a role in it all also. Without oil and other natural resource money Russia would never have recovered so quickly from the Soviet Unions collapse. And of course we know Western Governments have keen interst in places that have lots of oil, no denying that.

Of course the ideal outcome for all of this is Ukraine get a new election, get a government in place willing to take money from both Russia and the West while telling them to both go jump in the lake in regards to any military treaties, alliances, etc. It will never happen, but one can dream.

In years past the temperate waters of the Black Sea were important but now it is mostly about geographic location. Without Sevatasapol, Russia's fleet is tens of thousands of kms away from being able to effectively influence south eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. Of course, the resources are important as well.
 
The people in Crimea are overwhelmingly in favour of a Russian intrusion there, which basically offers the premise for every foreign army presence. Why did Obama ask the Congress for intervention in Syria? It's true he got turned down, but what if the Congress approved it?

Just because there is turmoil in Kiev doesn't mean Crimea must immediately seceed. The paranoia inside Crimea has been largely whipped up by Russian media, then leveraged to justify the military intervention. There are also people in Crimea who don't want Crimea to be a part of Putin's Russia and favor it remaining semi-autonomous. The Tartars, some Russian speaking Ukrainians, and ethnic Ukrainians.
 
Don't they:

a- have a treaty that allows them to send troops.
b- have the permission of the local (elected) government to mobilise some forces.

I don't think these are minor details. In fact you can't even compare this to the Iraq war, where neither a nor b (nor c- fear of imminent civil war breaking out) was applicable.

Well the Russians have a deal to respect Ukrainian territory in exchange for the Ukrainians getting rid of their nukes in 1994.

"1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;"

http://www.cfr.org/arms-control-dis...t-memorandums-security-assurances-1994/p32484
 
Just because there is turmoil in Kiev doesn't mean Crimea must immediately seceed. The paranoia inside Crimea has been largely whipped up by Russian media, then leveraged to justify the military intervention. There are also people in Crimea who don't want Crimea to be a part of Putin's Russia and favor it remaining semi-autonomous. The Tartars, some Russian speaking Ukrainians, and ethnic Ukrainians.

Well obviously, but considering we all want democratic solutions, shouldn't the overwhelming majority's opinion be considered as the right one? So you say that this is one big smoke screen created by the Russian media using the turmoil in Ukraine as a chance to annex Crimea? Sorry, it sounds like a cliched Sarah Palin story or like the usual conspiracy theory bollocks of US wanting to rule middle east because of oil.
 
In years past the temperate waters of the Black Sea were important but now it is mostly about geographic location. Without Sevatasapol, Russia's fleet is tens of thousands of kms away from being able to effectively influence south eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. Of course, the resources are important as well.

Until they finish their naval base in Novorossisk, all you said is spot on. They are not that worried of loosing oil (they have in abundance) but to loose their power/influence into the Mediterranean ocean.
 
Well obviously, but considering we all want democratic solutions, shouldn't the overwhelming majority's opinion be considered as the right one? So you say that this is one big smoke screen created by the Russian media using the turmoil in Ukraine as a chance to annex Crimea? Sorry, it sounds like a cliched Sarah Palin story or like the usual conspiracy theory bollocks of US wanting to rule middle east because of oil.

This actually wasn't an issue until Putin made it one. Crimea was quite happily semi-autonomous as a part of Ukraine. Russian speakers did their thing, people went on holiday to Yalta, ravers went to Kazantip, and others went to any number of seaside towns without a problem.
 
I don't see what all the fuss is about; the Ukrainians don't want Crimea, and the Crimeans don't want the Ukraine. It's all a storm in a tea cup this one that'll soon pass over.
 
Don't they:

a- have a treaty that allows them to send troops.
b- have the permission of the local (elected) government to mobilise some forces.

I don't think these are minor details. In fact you can't even compare this to the Iraq war, where neither a nor b (nor c- fear of imminent civil war breaking out) was applicable.


Well the treaty as far as I can tell, based on articles posted here, gives them the right to have 25,000 troops on their bases and does give some leaway for taking defensive measures outside the bases. Which all that does is open up the question of whether there was an actual threat to the Black Sea fleet or any other Russian bases in the Crimea. Personally I think it would be a stretch to say there was at this point, others will say just the unrest in other parts of the Ukraine was enough of a threat to the fleet. All depends on your point of view.

Question for everyone, lets say it was the US or UK or some other favorite nation of yours taking this action, would your views on it be the same? Answer honestly.

Myself, again not supporting the invasion of Iraq, intervention in Libya, not wanting the US to get involved in Syria, etc, I would say my views would be the same and I would not want the US sending in the troops in this fashion under these pretenses.
 
This actually wasn't an issue until Putin made it one. Crimea was quite happily semi-autonomous as a part of Ukraine. Russian speakers did their thing, people went on holiday to Yalta, ravers went to Kazantip, and others went to any number of seaside towns without a problem.


Raoul, hopefully I don't come across as ABU (Anyone but US) as I actually have a lot of time for US policies and however misguided they are, they are in essense for a common and needed purpose. You seem to conveniently overlook a few things. First, the ground reality is that Crimean population wants Russian intervention (in the near or long term) and yet you dismiss this just some sort of Agenda by the Russian media. Secondly, Putin or Russia has given no inclination yet that on what their long standing resolution for Crimea is. If US did the same thing against Syria, it'll be lauded for acting on humanitarian grounds. Third, annexing Crimea at the cost of pissing off major trade partners seems like a big cost to pay, especially with all the Russian effort to build relations with countries (FIFA World cup, Winter olympics etc etc)

Of course, this my opinion and they could very well be wrong.
 
In years past the temperate waters of the Black Sea were important but now it is mostly about geographic location. Without Sevatasapol, Russia's fleet is tens of thousands of kms away from being able to effectively influence south eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. Of course, the resources are important as well.

Yeah obviously ocean going technology has advanced quite a ways since the days of just wanting the Black Sea port for its warm waters.
 
Well the Russians have a deal to respect Ukrainian territory in exchange for the Ukrainians getting rid of their nukes in 1994.

"1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;"

http://www.cfr.org/arms-control-dis...t-memorandums-security-assurances-1994/p32484
Respecting the sovereignty = respecting the treaties between the two countries. The US has a lot of forces and bases in many countries. Nobody is calling that an invasion or not respecting their sovereignty, because it follows treaties between the two countries.

If Russia has a treaty with Ukraine that allows it to mobilize some forces in Crimea, then that definitely changes a few things imo.
 
The Crimean historically is not even Ukrainian, it's more Russian. After the referendum for independency in Crimea on the 30th of March everything will quite down and the Russians will keep Sevatasapol. All this posturing by Poetin seems more like male bravado to me. For some reason Poetin doesn't have the patience for diplomacy. But the Ukrainians don't even want the Crimea.
 
Respecting the sovereignty = respecting the treaties between the two countries. The US has a lot of forces and bases in many countries. Nobody is calling that an invasion or not respecting their sovereignty, because it follows treaties between the two countries.

If Russia has a treaty with Ukraine that allows it to mobilize some forces in Crimea, then that definitely changes a few things imo.

Personally, after Iraq I don't think the West is in a position to lecture others about respecting another country's sovereignty.
 
Another thing, I don't think the fading Russian military is in any state to fight anybody let alone the Ukraine.