Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Some chatter that in the upcoming weeks UK might provide long range cruise missiles called Storm Shadow which will have operational range of 250km. Let’s hope it turns out to be the case.
 
White House believes Prigozhin wants to take over mines near Bakhmut.

WASHINGTON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The United States is of the view that Russian President Vladimir Putin's ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is the founder of Russia's most powerful mercenary group, is interested in taking control of salt and gypsum from mines near the Ukrainian-held city of Bakhmut, a White House official said on Thursday.

There are indications that monetary motives are driving Russia's and Prigozhin's "obsession" with Bakhmut, the official added. Prigozhin is the owner of private Russian military company Wagner Group.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ol-salt-gypsum-mines-near-bakhmut-2023-01-05/
 
T00lsh3d said:
Funny how Russian started this because didn’t want a western base on their border. Sounds like they’re getting quite a solid one
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Armed to the teeth and with a sense of purpose comparable to what Israel has. Even if Russia gets a meager diplomatic win, they lose on the long run. Demographics and economics are against them
 

There are only ruins now left from the town, imagine the amount of dumb artillery Russia uses, it’s obvious why they’re beginning to experience a shell hunger compared to the spring/summer when they still had a lot of soviet era stockpiles and no HIMARS. Also, looking at these pictures the town is probably close to being unattainable in hosting the Ukrainian army as there’s just no buildings.
 
The longer it goes on the more NATO armed and sophisticated the Ukrainian army is while Russia is getting weaker by the day. If I was Putin, I would look for peace negotiations ASAP and if denied, continue the propaganda of "it's a west made war".

If the West is smart, this will go on until the forces of Ukraine are more powerful then Russia's and it leads to a full defeat in the area. The main obstacle are going to be the Russian fanatics in the west that are going to cry "evil" west when Putin asks for peace but it's not given.

It's an interesting situation I think that involves not just the military but the politics across Europe and the US. If all good minds align, it should end with the liberation of Ukraine and the destruction of the Russian army, culminating at some point with the end of the Putin era; and maybe a chance for Russia to be itself a free country.
 
Rajma said:
Some chatter that in the upcoming weeks UK might provide long range cruise missiles called Storm Shadow which will have operational range of 250km. Let’s hope it turns out to be the case.
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I thought Wallace confirmed this before Christmas?
 
Surprisingly to no one, Russian forces are not observing Putin's "ceasefire".
 
US DoD have announced their next defence package for Ukraine.


  • 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition;
  • 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
  • 55 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
  • 138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
  • 18 155mm self-propelled Howitzers and 18 ammunition support vehicles;
  • 70,000 155mm artillery rounds;
  • 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
  • 1,200 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
  • 36 105mm towed Howitzers and 95,000 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
  • 4,000 Zuni aircraft rockets;
  • Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
  • Sniper rifles, machine guns, and ammunition for grenade launchers and small arms;
  • Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
  • Night vision devices and optics;
  • Spare parts and other field equipment.



https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...n-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 
So 50 Bradleys, 40 Marders and an undisclosed number of AMX10RC are coming to the Ukraine. So let's say around 120,130 AIC's. Is this a gamechanger or just enough to irritate the Russians?
 
RoyH1 said:
So 50 Bradleys, 40 Marders and an undisclosed number of AMX10RC are coming to the Ukraine. So let's say around 120,130 AIC's. Is this a gamechanger or just enough to irritate the Russians?
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I don't think they will be a gamechanger as in they will bring this war to an end, the numbers are to small and you can't conduct large scale offensive operations with just IFV's, for that they will need tanks and artillery to go with them.
Saying that, they are a big improvement on the BMP 1's Ukraine is currently using and they will definitely make an impact on the battlefield.
 
What happened to Ambramovich anyway? At one point he was a globetrotting peace envoy and negotiator but it's all gone quiet it seems. Has he been threatened with defenestration or decided it's too dangerous to go abroad in case he's arrested or something?
 
TwoSheds said:
What happened to Ambramovich anyway? At one point he was a globetrotting peace envoy and negotiator but it's all gone quiet it seems. Has he been threatened with defenestration or decided it's too dangerous to go abroad in case he's arrested or something?
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There are no peace talks to help negotiate. And I'm pretty sure that he's not in Russia at the moment.
 
TwoSheds said:
What happened to Ambramovich anyway? At one point he was a globetrotting peace envoy and negotiator but it's all gone quiet it seems. Has he been threatened with defenestration or decided it's too dangerous to go abroad in case he's arrested or something?
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Last I saw on twitter about 2 weeks ago, is that he's interested in buying a club in Turkey.
 
TwoSheds said:
Holed up in Israel?
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I think so. He's not a very public (more like an extremely private) person, so it's not like we're able to track his movements day by day but I think he's staying in Israel at the moment. He has Israeli & Portuguese passports but there was some public backlash in Portugal when they found out that he got it in some slightly suspicious way.

He still has actives in Russia that he keeps supporting (like a museum & a few cultural centres) and he appears here from time to time but he certainly doesn't live here full-time anymore.
 
Talks that Russia will try another go at Kiev by throwing 200k mobilized (100k+ out of 300k they have already thrown to stabilize the defensive line) who currently still are undergoing training. They will hope to have enough meat (+ Belarus) to throw into a meat grinder as armored vehicles / tanks, ammo/ etc. are now in deficit they believe the share amount of men power should be enough overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. This is so stupid that you wouldn’t look past Russians to press ahead with this idea in such a desperate situation as they know the war is lost already.
 
Rajma said:
Talks that Russia will try another go at Kiev by throwing 200k mobilized (100k+ out of 300k they have already thrown to stabilize the defensive line) who currently still are undergoing training. They will hope to have enough meat (+ Belarus) to throw into a meat grinder as armored vehicles / tanks, ammo/ etc. are now in deficit they believe the share amount of men power should be enough overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. This is so stupid that you wouldn’t look past Russians to press ahead with this idea in such a desperate situation as they know the war is lost already.
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I don't think even Russia would be that stupid, Ukraine has been building defensive fortifications all over northern Ukraine since the Russian retreat in March. I think the Russian troops in Belarus are there for training as Russia has to few officers available to train the mobilized troops.
 
the hea said:
I don't think even Russia would be that stupid, Ukraine has been building defensive fortifications all over northern Ukraine since the Russian retreat in March. I think the Russian troops in Belarus are there for training as Russia has to few officers available to train the mobilized troops.
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Currently, they’re deep in Russia behind the ural training for 2+ months now since the start of the mobilization and Russian command are basically deciding what to do with them and attacking Kiev again seems to be on their table given their desperate situation.
 
Rajma said:
Currently, they’re deep in Russia behind the ural training for 2+ months now since the start of the mobilization and Russian command are basically deciding what to do with them and attacking Kiev again seems to be on their table given their desperate situation.
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There are already a lot of Russian troops in Belarus



 
the hea said:
There are already a lot of Russian troops in Belarus



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In Belarus there’s only a small group at this point in time that’s not really sufficient to carry out any sort of attacking activity. Real question is where Russian command will throw those 200k now training in Russia.

 
So Russia claims they have revenged the attack killing hundreds of their mobilized last week, by seemingly taking out 600 UA personnel in Kramatorsk. Yet Reuters journalists in Kramatorsk are saying they don't see any evidence of an attack has taken place nor any casualties.
 
BarstoolProphet said:
So Russia claims they have revenged the attack killing hundreds of their mobilized last week, by seemingly taking out 600 UA personnel in Kramatorsk. Yet Reuters journalists in Kramatorsk are saying they don't see any evidence of an attack has taken place nor any casualties.
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This guy is a journalist for the Finnish national broadcaster, he visited the site of the strike earlier today and all he found was an empty building and two holes in the ground.



 
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