Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Ukraine aid has been left out of the current package. Very bad news for the Ukrainians.
 
The definition of a failed state. A failed state with nuclear weapons...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66924404

Russia police crisis: Burned out, disappointed and demoralised

In the early hours of 14 January 2020, blood-curdling screams could be heard at an apartment block in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar.

Shocked and scared, a resident called the police to report what sounded like an attack on a woman.

But no-one came.

The screaming continued, alongside loud bangs and cries for help. Six more calls were made to emergency services but still no police officers arrived.

Neighbours, now fearing the worst, decided to take matters into their own hands and broke into the apartment by smashing down the door.

But it was too late.

The screaming had stopped. The woman was dead.

[....]

The impact of the war in Ukraine

The number of police officers in Russia was declining before the start of the war in Ukraine.

Initially, the war convinced some officers to stay in the force. Russian police officers are exempt from being called up for military duty, so some officers who were on the verge of resigning when Russia invaded Ukraine told us they kept their jobs to avoid fighting.

"Either you sat tight, or you left and got drafted," explains one officer from Moscow. "I know there were managers who made a list of everyone who'd threatened to quit and passed it straight to the [army] recruiters. Everyone was pretty scared."

But as the war rumbles on, police numbers are dwindling. The force cannot fill existing gaps - let alone recruit the 40,000 extra personnel that the Interior Ministry says is needed in Donetsk and Luhansk, areas of Ukraine that Russia partly occupies.
 
Another election in Europe, another win for right-wing parties, in this case, the far right in Slovakia(can expect them to drop all aid to Ukraine soon).

Feels like the left-wing on this continent simply can't win anymore, anywhere, people in Europe have turned so damn conservative in the last decade or two.

Yeah, you can point certain examples, or that the left will probably win in the UK next election, but thats only cause of a decade of mismanagement from the right, nothing more.

At this rate, i have more faith that the left will succeed in other parts of the world, american countries, even the US, over countries in Europe.
 
Popular current narrative is that Russia is "losing" or has "lost" the war from a strategic viewpoint.

Personally, I think the situation remains rather dire for Ukraine nevertheless. Putin will continue the war and the Russian military is far from defeated yet. So I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine defeats Russia on the battleground. Not without both countries going absolutely all the way, risking major economic/demographic collapse while losing millions of men.

There is this weird notion on Reddit sometimes of Russia being just on the brink of collapsing. It's just not true. There are, depending on your source, about 200,000 to 400,000 Russian troops still present in Ukraine and they can throw in more if they want. The usual arguments about "logistical problems" and such may be valid but Ukrainians are still getting killed everyday so evidently Russia is arming its troops. If you think there'll be a moment in the short term where the Russians will be without weapons or ammo, I got a bridge to sell you.

With all that being said, we should keep supporting Ukraine. But unless we increase both the pace and amount of aid we deliver, this will remain a grinding attrition war that could last a couple of years more. And Putin will be all to happy to turn this into a frozen conflict and keep Ukraine unstable, scare investors away from Ukraine, and destroy hopes of Ukraine joining EU or NATO.

I hope I'm wrong but sadly it seems Ukraine would need a miracle for this war to end quick, like Putin getting overthrown or dying from natural causes and his successor blaming it all on Putin and withdrawing.
 
Ukrainian sniper quotes:

He said that it does not trouble him to take lives because he is motivated by a higher purpose.

"We do not suffer psychologically because we protect our home and do a noble deed. Plus, it's just a job," he said.
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Despite their skill and effectiveness, Ghost stressed that they are humans who feel fear, just like anyone else.

"As long as we have fear, we're acting like humans, and we are more reasonable," he said. "As soon as somebody has lost their fear, that's the beginning of the end.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/the...-russians-2023-9?international=true&r=US&IR=T
 
VorZakone said:
Popular current narrative is that Russia is "losing" or has "lost" the war from a strategic viewpoint.

Personally, I think the situation remains rather dire for Ukraine nevertheless. Putin will continue the war and the Russian military is far from defeated yet. So I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine defeats Russia on the battleground. Not without both countries going absolutely all the way, risking major economic/demographic collapse while losing millions of men.

There is this weird notion on Reddit sometimes of Russia being just on the brink of collapsing. It's just not true. There are, depending on your source, about 200,000 to 400,000 Russian troops still present in Ukraine and they can throw in more if they want. The usual arguments about "logistical problems" and such may be valid but Ukrainians are still getting killed everyday so evidently Russia is arming its troops. If you think there'll be a moment in the short term where the Russians will be without weapons or ammo, I got a bridge to sell you.

With all that being said, we should keep supporting Ukraine. But unless we increase both the pace and amount of aid we deliver, this will remain a grinding attrition war that could last a couple of years more. And Putin will be all to happy to turn this into a frozen conflict and keep Ukraine unstable, scare investors away from Ukraine, and destroy hopes of Ukraine joining EU or NATO.

I hope I'm wrong but sadly it seems Ukraine would need a miracle for this war to end quick, like Putin getting overthrown or dying from natural causes and his successor blaming it all on Putin and withdrawing.
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I pretty much agree with you there. I think you get a lot of information from seeking, and you get some ideas.

All the Russians have lost from a strategic point of view because they couldn't capture Kiev, and whatever was always braindead stuff to me because it is not a win for the UKR in any sense as the latter want the former to get the feck out of their country. Until then, UKR is in a very disadvantageous position, and they absolutely have no other choice. The Russians still held more land than before the 2022 invasion. The RU's military would take decades to rebuild, or so they said. Yet, there are other views saying it would take about five years, which is a very short time. Their economy was collapsing, and they would not be able to produce or repair basic and advanced weapons. After like 18 months, they are mostly still using them more than the UKR, who have received shitloads of them themselves from various countries.

It is true that the RU underestimated the West's unity and response and probably lacked intelligence on advanced technology and other information. But I think after 18 months, it showed that the West (at least what they let the general public know) doesn't have much information on or/and underestimated the RU's capability too.

This is not an anti-UKR or pro-RU post, though. I am concerned with the U.S. being a mess and keeping on supporting the UKR. And, I just had to let out that I was amazed at how people were thinking RU would collapse soon after just a few months. I was skeptic, not because I know more, but because, growing up under a dictator, I know that the reality in terms of how resilent those feckers can be is a tad different from how people from the 'West' think in general.

Most people just look at "good news" and want to feel good about it. It is hard to blame them though because war is generally depressing.
 
We can say Russia is losing all we want, i guess in the long run they are, but this war has been a complete stalemate for a full year now, the progress that Ukraine was making in the south has also stalled completely in recent weeks, so there is no reaching Tokmak until sometime next year.
 
Morty_ said:
We can say Russia is losing all we want, i guess in the long run they are, but this war has been a complete stalemate for a full year now, the progress that Ukraine was making in the south has also stalled completely in recent weeks, so there is no reaching Tokmak until sometime next year.
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Putin has already been unsuccessful in taking over all of Ukraine, which was his initial goal. The fact that he is incrementally losing more and more territory by the day can only be assessed that he is losing the war. That's not to say the tide couldn't change if say, the US stopped funding, and or, someone like Trump won the WH in 24, then proceeded to pull out of NATO (a distinct possibility), which would be a bat signal that Putin could basically nuke his way to taking all of Ukraine.
 
Raoul said:
Putin has already been unsuccessful in taking over all of Ukraine, which was his initial goal. The fact that he is incrementally losing more and more territory by the day can only be assessed that he is losing the war. That's not to say the tide couldn't change if say, the US stopped funding, and or, someone like Trump won the WH in 24, then proceeded to pull out of NATO (a distinct possibility), which would be a bat signal that Putin could basically nuke his way to taking all of Ukraine.
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Nukes don't enter into it, you don't think Europe have more than enough nukes to level every major city in Russia on their own?

"More nukes" above a certain point really doesn't matter.
 
Morty_ said:
Nukes don't enter into it, you don't think Europe have more than enough nukes to level every major city in Russia on their own?

"More nukes" above a certain point really doesn't matter.
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They wouldn't do anything if Putin attacked Ukraine, especially without the US's top cover, which wouldn't be there if Trump was President.
 
Raoul said:
Yes, the Ukrainians are slowly chipping away at various points in southern Zap en route to Melitopol and Berdiansk, which would effectively cut off most of the Russian land bridge to Crimea.

There are a few maps from last month further down the page.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/09/world/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-maps-guide-dg/
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But the problem is that Ukraine hasn't made any progress towards Tokmak(Let alone Melitopol) for weeks, so what are they chipping away at?

Mud season arrives soon, and then Russia just gets to build up further fortifications for months, and that will be that, for a good while.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves that this offensive didn't accomplish remotely what it was set out to do.
 
Raoul said:
They wouldn't do anything if Putin attacked Ukraine, especially without the US's top cover, which wouldn't be there if Trump was President.
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Most countries in Europe are ramping up their military spending as a result(looks like Slovakia just decided to suck off Putin for some reason though), what happened 1,5 years ago is not representative of what will happen in the future.

I think NATO, even without the US, are more than capable of outproducing Russia in this conflict.

My worry is that other countries will do what Slovakia just did though, vote in pro-Putin politicians, as seems to be popular right now, even if it makes no sense at all.
 
Morty_ said:
But the problem is that Ukraine hasn't made any progress towards Tokmak(Let alone Melitopol) for weeks, so what are they chipping away at?

Mud season arrives soon, and then Russia just gets to build up further fortifications for months, and that will be that, for a good while.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves that this offensive didn't accomplish remotely what it was set out to do.
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They have multiple fronts going on at the same time which makes for slow going. With that said, they are only 100km away from a major victory in reclaiming Melitopol, which could be a massive turning point in the war in that it would cut off all Russians in southern Kherson and force them back into Crimea. At that point we will more or less be in a situation where Russian land gains would barely be more than what they were before they invaded.
 
The US has given Ukraine more than many of us thought was possible. I think we need to hear more about what we're getting for our money.

The military industrial complex seems to view the price as cheap to destroy this much of Russia's war equipment. We already see results in their inability to assist Armenia. For a tiny percent of our yearly military budget.

Liberals here are so bad at messaging.
 
Beans said:
The US has given Ukraine more than many of us thought was possible. I think we need to hear more about what we're getting for our money.

The military industrial complex seems to view the price as cheap to destroy this much of Russia's war equipment. We already see results in their inability to assist Armenia. For a tiny percent of our yearly military budget.

Liberals here are so bad at messaging.
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Its not the military industrial complex - its actual US defense policy to deter Russian aggression. So when some ask "what are we getting for our money", the obvious answer is one of the best investments in the history of the country - donating weapons to a third party who have exposed the Russian military as being incompetent, eroded Putin's global legitimacy, and precipitated an internal revolt to remove him from power - all without a single drop of American blood being spilled in the process in terms of official boots on the ground. Its impossible to get a better return on a military investment than that.
 
Morty_ said:
But the problem is that Ukraine hasn't made any progress towards Tokmak(Let alone Melitopol) for weeks, so what are they chipping away at?

Mud season arrives soon, and then Russia just gets to build up further fortifications for months, and that will be that, for a good while.

I think we have to be honest with ourselves that this offensive didn't accomplish remotely what it was set out to do.
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My favorite argument in this thread was that having more soldiers does not mean anything because the UKR will have more advanced weapons and training from NATO. I was hoping it would be true as well. Yet, the number will be a deciding factor in this war. You can bet that the number of losses from UKR would be very high for capturing those empty villages, with probably 10 destroyed houses there while progressing about 1km per month sometimes. At some point, people (including from the UKR) have to wonder if it is worth losing so many people for so little, and that would be Putin's bet as well. It is very grim for UKR and what they want to achieve.
 
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Raoul said:
Its not the military industrial complex - its actual US defense policy to deter Russian aggression. So when some ask "what are we getting for our money", the obvious answer is one of the best investments in the history of the country - donating weapons to a third party who have exposed the Russian military as being incompetent, eroded Putin's global legitimacy, and precipitated an internal revolt to remove him from power - all without a single drop of American blood being spilled in the process in terms of official boots on the ground. Its impossible to get a better return on a military investment than that.
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I am not exactly sure how true those facts are. Yeah, the West exposed them a lot, but on the other hand, the global South, including China, has been closer to the RA, challenging the West more and more openly. And Putin will use more money to rebuild his army, and they could be more competent than before later on. Not to mention, China would gain a lot of information from this war to prepare its own forces. The global South enjoying cheap oil and gas would not give a dam about how Putin is, and many of the emerging economic powers are probably from there. You could even say Putin is winning some of the geopolitics there and in some parts of Africa.

Saying not dropping a single drop of American blood and it being a good investment sounds really selfish and lacks empathy, though, if it gets said out loud. Of course, I don't mean we should not support the UKR. But your takes on those issues are just too one-sided and not exactly clear advantages for the West.
 
The United said:
I am not exactly sure how true those facts are. Yeah, the West exposed them a lot, but on the other hand, the global South, including China, has been closer to the RA, challenging the West more and more openly. And Putin will use more money to rebuild his army, and they could be more competent than before later on. Not to mention, China would gain a lot of information from this war to prepare its own forces. The global South enjoying cheap oil and gas would not give a dam about how Putin is, and many of the emerging economic powers are probably from there. You could even say Putin is winning some of the geopolitics there and in some parts of Africa.

Saying not dropping a single drop of American blood and it being a good investment sounds really selfish and lacks empathy, though, if it gets said out loud. Of course, I don't mean we should not support the UKR. But your takes on those issues are just too one-sided and not exactly clear advantages for the West.
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It also happens to be true from a US perspective. The previous US defense policy was to deter Russia and China. Once the Russians flopped in Ukraine, the US actually delayed the release of their new defense policy to downgrade Russia and make it largely all about China going forward. Therefore, the investment to erode Russia as a global power has been incredibly successful by taking a major adversary out of the global equation, where we are now headed back into a traditional bipolar world (this time involving the Chinese).
 
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Raoul said:
Its not the military industrial complex - its actual US defense policy to deter Russian aggression. So when some ask "what are we getting for our money", the obvious answer is one of the best investments in the history of the country - donating weapons to a third party who have exposed the Russian military as being incompetent, eroded Putin's global legitimacy, and precipitated an internal revolt to remove him from power - all without a single drop of American blood being spilled in the process in terms of official boots on the ground. Its impossible to get a better return on a military investment than that.
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I simply meant the people in the military industrial complex, including the military, get the efficacy of supporting Ukraine. These people tend to be conservative but they're with the democrats here.
 
Morty_ said:
My worry is that other countries will do what Slovakia just did though, vote in pro-Putin politicians, as seems to be popular right now, even if it makes no sense at all.
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I've heard normal voters who don't give two fecks about putin or russia complaining the government is sending help to ukraine while we have hundreds of thousands of students with no teachers to start the school year, waiting lists at hospitals are ridiculously high, the vast majority of young people struggle to even rent a room in a big city, 20% of the population is living in the line of poverty, etc.

If current "nato governments" fail to answer the needs of their people they can't expect them to keep voting for them.

People like to disconnect these things and say complaining about help to ukraine if following moscow's talking points, but it's just normal human behavior.
 
maniak said:
I've heard normal voters who don't give two fecks about putin or russia complaining the government is sending help to ukraine while we have hundreds of thousands of students with no teachers to start the school year, waiting lists at hospitals are ridiculously high, the vast majority of young people struggle to even rent a room in a big city, 20% of the population is living in the line of poverty, etc.

If current "nato governments" fail to answer the needs of their people they can't expect them to keep voting for them.

People like to disconnect these things and say complaining about help to ukraine if following moscow's talking points, but it's just normal human behavior.
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Which again, makes little sense.

NATO-countries are not exactly bankrupting themselves on Ukraine, they are not even spending that much compared to GDP.

The money that goes to Ukraine isn't going to save the healthcare or education system, that would simply be misinformation.
 
Morty_ said:
Which again, makes little sense.

NATO-countries are not exactly bankrupting themselves on Ukraine, they are not even spending that much compared to GDP.

The money that goes to Ukraine isn't going to save the healthcare or education system, that would simply be misinformation.
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I know, but that's not the perception many people will have, and that will cost current government elections.

Our current trumpist party is already banking on it, showing ukrainians being given places to live in portugal and also showing portuguese families living in tents because they can't afford housing.

The two thing are not connected, but the optics are terrible and it will give votes to these parties at the expense of "normal" parties.
 
maniak said:
I know, but that's not the perception many people will have, and that will cost current government elections.

Our current trumpist party is already banking on it, showing ukrainians being given places to live in portugal and also showing portuguese families living in tents because they can't afford housing.

The two thing are not connected, but the optics are terrible and it will give votes to these parties at the expense of "normal" parties.
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At some point you just got to blame the people for falling for obvious BS though.

Different case, but, take Brexit, i don't blame "remain" nearly as much as i blame the opposition for being idiots, they even had a chance to correct it but didn't, oh well.
 
Raoul said:
I'd love to know how he drifted towards right wing politics given he was quite different a decade ago. But that's for the Brand thread.
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Once he started on Youtube full-time it was inevitable. It's the road to take for easy subscribers and views apparently.
 
When it comes to the Ukrainians, “there are some honest conversations happening behind the scenes,” a U.S. official familiar with Ukraine policy said. Like others, the person was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
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