Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

4bars said:
About 2-3 months at 15.000 shells a day

Also north korea can send more

Meanwhile the whole europe cant supply even remotely this quantity in months
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Its not getting any better next year either, when Russia will massively increase its military budget, while big NATO nations raises theirs by a few percentages.

Though, i wonder how much North Korea is willing to sell, how much are they willing to get rid of before they start feeling unsafe, after all, NK is quite a paranoid state.
 
Morty_ said:
Its not getting any better next year either, when Russia will massively increase its military budget, while big NATO nations raises theirs by a few percentages.

Though, i wonder how much North Korea is willing to sell, how much are they willing to get rid of before they start feeling unsafe, after all, NK is quite a paranoid state.
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Unfortunately NK is likely to be willing to sell a lot. They accumulated the shells over decades to assure SK that they could destroy it - kind of a baby-MAD. As NK has nukes now, this has become less important
 
Are the once-vaunted Bayraktar drones losing their shine in Ukraine?
BRNO, Czech Republic — The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, which reportedly assisted Ukraine in military successes earlier in the war, are now of limited utility amid Russian forces bolstering their air defenses, according to a Ukrainian military official.

“For the TB2, I don’t want to use the word useless, but it is hard to find situations where to use them,” Valiukh said at the GSOF Symposium here on Oct. 26.
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/...yraktar-drones-losing-their-shine-in-ukraine/
 
stefan92 said:
Unfortunately NK is likely to be willing to sell a lot. They accumulated the shells over decades to assure SK that they could destroy it - kind of a baby-MAD. As NK has nukes now, this has become less important
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And anyway, even if the nukes part is not true, You only need a full round of all their artillery battery during a day to destroy significantly Seoul. Enough deterrence.
 
Raoul said:
This would only become a factor if the US and Europe stop supporting the Ukrainians. They've received ATACMS and Ukrainian pilots are getting F-16s soon (they are training in the US now), so for all the talk of stalling the counteroffensive, what has actually stalled is Russia's attempt to make new advances.
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I read all that with a grain of salt, sounds like fairy tales at this point.

This war is being fought with conventional weapons, and Russia has the upper hand. US was never in it for the long haul.

 
Suedesi said:
I read all that with a grain of salt, sounds like fairy tales at this point.

This war is being fought with conventional weapons, and Russia has the upper hand. US was never in it for the long haul.

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Russia hasn’t had the upper hand since the 2nd or 3rd month of what is now the 20th month of the war. The only person it’s over for is Putin, since he can’t achieve his objective of taking over all of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, who most thought would flee, have rebuffed what many believed 20 months ago was the 2nd or 3rd best military in the world.
 
Raoul said:
Russia hasn’t had the upper hand since the 2nd or 3rd month of what is now the 20th month of the war. The only person it’s over for is Putin, since he can’t achieve his objective of taking over all of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, who most thought would flee, have rebuffed what many believed 20 months ago was the 2nd or 3rd best military in the world.
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Exactly this.

How does Russia have the upper hand while controlling less territory than in the 3rd month of the war?

How are ATACMS, Bayraktar, drones, etc. conventional weapons?

The war is still going on, with movements at a glacier (glazier?) pace but still in Ukraine's favour. Odessa is slowly but surely getting back to normal. Sebastopol isn't. Traffic on Kerch bridge as well as sea transport has been suspended. The fact that the UA isn't advancing at the same pace as last year it doesn't mean they're losing. It just means that advancing gets more difficult as the RA adapts to the new scenario.

Sadly the middle East crisis have taken a lot of focus from this conflict. But that won't be for long.
 
Russia might not have the upper hand, but it seems that they might have advantage on the grind tactics as they have more personnel. Hopefully Ukraine can break the stalemate. Also Putin is banking on US 2024 elections
 
Quelle surprise.

Criminals and sanctions-busters exploiting UK secrecy loophole

An offshore firm helped create companies used by members of Vladimir Putin's inner circle, including one hiding the late mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's yacht, the BBC can reveal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67276289
 
Just seen footage of a suicide drone about to take off. Just as it takes off a little field mouse jumps on it and stays on for the whole journey! Another brave soul lost in the fight.
 
In 5-10 years these kids will march on western europe on the order of the moscow’s regime and if Ukraine is left alone in limbo state again and won’t be admitted to NATO / EU and losses this war the regime in russia will have millions of Ukrainian men added to their meat assault squads. Basically, everyone in Europe should start preparing for a big war unless we make sure that Ukraine prevails and joins EU / NATO.

 
nimic said:
Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Russia is obviously not going to go to war with NATO in the near future. It's already important enough for the west to support Ukraine - this hyperbole serves no purpose.
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We might have US-less NATO in the near future given the political processes in the country, it’s not an unlikely scenario. NATO without the full US backing will be tested for sure by the regime in moscow at some point if Ukraine loses, no doubt about that. Imagine occupied Ukraine /Belarus with Hungary falling completely into the Kremlin hands, you also have allied Serbs. The picture will look very bleak for Europe. Russia is now investing and will be (for foreseeable future) into the military production on war time terms, while Europe refuses to up its game when it comes to military production, it has been almost 2 years of active hot war in Europe and we’re still incapable of delivering more than a few thousand shells per month in total in something as basic as artillery shells.

 
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Syrski not popular, it seems. This was the guy credited for the Kharkiv offensive?

 
Rajma said:
We might have US-less NATO in the near future given the political processes in the country, it’s not an unlikely scenario. NATO without the full US backing will be tested for sure by the regime in moscow at some point if Ukraine loses, no doubt about that. Imagine occupied Ukraine /Belarus with Hungary falling completely into the Kremlin hands, you also have allied Serbs. The picture will look very bleak for Europe. Russia is now investing and will be (for foreseeable future) into the military production on war time terms, while Europe refuses to up its game when it comes to military production, it has been almost 2 years of active hot war in Europe and we’re still incapable of delivering more than a few thousand shells per month in total in something as basic as artillery shells.

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Great nation of Serbia completely surrounded by NATO countries will for sure pivot the odds toward Russia conquering the entire Europe. If Montenegro joins too, Europe is in real trouble.
 
Illustrative of how far the mindset has fallen for that sort of thing to be well received.
 
Raoul said:
Illustrative of how far the mindset has fallen for that sort of thing to be well received.
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Bear in mind that’s moscow were we supposed to expect some level of decency, and what goes on outside? Be my guest…
 
Some interesting data from Mediazona on their track of Russian casualties they were able to confirm. (doesn't matter whether you think they undercount or inflate the numbers, it's the trend that's interesting).

The grand Ukrainian offensive basically didn't register.

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

So, we can completely dispense with the claims that 'Ukraine may not be advancing, but they are significantly weakening Russian forces with artillery, that just seems pretty much made up.

White House / Pentagon has two alternatives, either sue for peace and bring an end to the conflict, or escalate the war effort and face the Russian forces head on.
 
Suedesi said:
So, we can completely dispense with the claims that 'Ukraine may not be advancing, but they are significantly weakening Russian forces with artillery, that just seems pretty much made up.
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I don't think so. The beginning of the Ukrainian offensive roughly started at the same time some Russian offensive actions ended (Bakhmut!), so a similar level of dead Russians over time shouldn't be surprising.

But the nature of the deaths changed. Ukraine attacked lightly manned but heavily mined fortifications, and they did that under heavy Russian artillery fire. So they started hunting Russian artillery. So while I can't prove that I believe just from following the battlefield news that there actually was a shift towards more dead artillerists and less dead infanterists.

Which still is significant because it hurts more to kill some trained artillerist and his howitzer than some mobilised guys holding AKs
 
Suedesi said:
Some interesting data from Mediazona on their track of Russian casualties they were able to confirm. (doesn't matter whether you think they undercount or inflate the numbers, it's the trend that's interesting).

The grand Ukrainian offensive basically didn't register.

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

So, we can completely dispense with the claims that 'Ukraine may not be advancing, but they are significantly weakening Russian forces with artillery, that just seems pretty much made up.

White House / Pentagon has two alternatives, either sue for peace and bring an end to the conflict, or escalate the war effort and face the Russian forces head on.
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How did you even arrive at this conclusion? We’re talking static and likely most of the time unmanned batteries in the fields that got picked out in huge numbers as evident by the visual confirmations by OSINT community.

Secondly, why would US need to face the Russian forces head on? They can simply provide much more in terms of jets, tanks, ifvs, long-range capabilities to the Ukrainian armed forces without any necessity to touch the ground, what are you even talking about.

What you don’t get is that you won’t end this conflict by pleading peace? Doesn’t history already proven you wrong on this one several times? If we acted more harshly after initial occupation back in 2014 this wouldn’t have happened but instead politicians looked for peace when Putin aims have never changed and never will unless he’s defeated on the battlefield.
 
Rajma said:
How did you even arrive at this conclusion? We’re talking static and likely most of the time unmanned batteries in the fields that got picked out in huge numbers as evident by the visual confirmations by OSINT community.

Secondly, why would US need to face the Russian forces head on? They can simply provide much more in terms of jets, tanks, ifvs, long-range capabilities to the Ukrainian armed forces without any necessity to touch the ground, what are you even talking about.

What you don’t get is that you won’t end this conflict by pleading peace? Doesn’t history already proven you wrong on this one several times? If we acted more harshly after initial occupation back in 2014 this wouldn’t have happened but instead politicians looked for peace when Putin aims have never changed and never will unless he’s defeated on the battlefield.
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Don't dignify them with that much of a response.
 
nimic said:
I wouldn't worry, eventually they just put you on ignore anyway. It's an inevitable goal for any CE journeyman.

Edit: I should say, they claim to put you on ignore. In reality I'm pretty sure they grit their teeth and read your replies anyway.
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Concerning
 
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