Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Where are the weirdos that told us Russia could storm through Ukraine AND Poland in a week if it really tried :lol:
With the invincible chechens leading the charge, the best warriors in the world.
 
There’s an interesting twitter feed that I can’t seem to link to, suggesting that his capture makes it likely that his forward HQ has been overrun, which should give the UAF some absolutely vital information about Russian army strengths, size, battle plans etc. I don’t know enough about warfare to know whether this is true but it certainly could be way bigger than the capture of the man himself.

I think Ukraine already has most of this intel, american spy satellites are now extremely accurate and i wouldn't be suprised if they coupled them with AI to automatically detect almost instantly any significant movement of troops.
 
Sadly, I can't enjoy this as much as I would like.

This might be slightly off-topic, but not completely, and I'm just going to write it here to show you how difficult it is to deal with Russian satellite states.

As most of you are probably well aware by now, Bosnia is made od two entities, one of which (Republic of Srpska) is completely pro-Russian. Serbs gained it in 1992-1995 war, effectively splitting country in two parts, and the separation is visible in every possible way. To cut the long story short, Serbs have a long term goal of separating from Bosnia, and in order to do so, they are attempting to prove every day that coexistence is impossible.

Serbia is Russian ally, and has instigated a lot of political unrest in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro recently, with a long term goal of creating Greater Serbia, a country in which all Serbs would live. Of course, it has large parts of neighbouring countries in it.

Now, as I said, nothing is immune to this political divide. Bosniaks and Croats (well, mostly) are pro-European, pro-EU and pro-NATO, as we are well aware that it is our only way of survival to integrate into Europe and western civilization. But we can't make any decision without acceptance of Serbs. And they are not pro EU and are definitely anti-NATO, spewing some neutrality shite and hoping that Serbia will one day walk in there and liberate them the same way Russia is liberating Ukraine. Infact, there are lot of similarities in Russian and Serbian propaganda and war doctrine.

Information has come out today that Bosnian FA has accepted invitation from Russia to play a friendly in november in St. Petersburg. That was made possible by the fact that FA is now run by Serbs due to the rotation policy in Presidency. Vico Zeljkovic is president now, he is nephew of Serbian leader Milorad Dodik and yields a great amount of power. Dodik is Putin's lapdog.

I know football is not important, but this is football forum and I'm taking a wild guess many will see in november that Bosnia is playing Russia and take a guess that we are pro-Russian oriented. I just wanted to move your attention to the fact that we aren't. At least majority isn't. Serbs are. And their attempts to break away from Bosnia are well supported by Russia.

Once again, someone may dismiss this writing as bollocks and offtopic, but to me it isn't. I see this as just another step in attempting to cut us off from west and keep us in Russian sphere of interest. We don't want that, we need people to know where we stand but also that our hands are tied.
I understand that. It's a very difficult issue and the reason I know fairly well of your situation is because I am Romanian. We have problems to the borders by a now war to the East, a Hungary run by a russian fan and Serbia too. The feeling in my country is that we are surrounded by potential enemies and the military doctrine of the nation is based on US and NATO alliance, while preparing to fight virtually all our neighbors in case of war. Even Bulgaria is not well trusted. We feel a bit like an island here and if anyone pays attention to the arms program, the country prepares to not just have a decent army, but one that can fight to the Est while taking over all issues to the West (Hungary and Serbia, potentially Bulgaria).

The feelings you write are very similar to some from Hungary, the people that want the West but are forced by a corrupt and immoral government to behave a different way. It's much more complicated in your case as it's a real difference of nationality.

I guess what I'm saying is that I understand the shit situation in your part of the woods. As far as I know, NATO also understands it from a military perspective. As far as what "normal" people think of a people or another, it matters to little IMO. Most Americans probably can't show Ukraine on the map yet the nation still brings billions and major tech to the war. The situation in your country is for sure well understood by the powers at hand, don't worry about that.
 
How would they be cut off from supplies ? The map seems to indicate there is plenty of Russian controlled territory to the east of Izyum.
Looking at this map, I believe that they may be talking about those ground lines of communication that only go to the North side (and are cut off now). Borova also looks like a major transport hub although there's also Oskil... anyway, the "completely cut off" stuff seems to like exaggeration.

FcMAx5baAAYtLlh
 
Looking at this map, I believe that they may be talking about those ground lines of communication that only go to the North side (and are cut off now). Borova also looks like a major transport hub although there's also Oskil... anyway, the "completely cut off" stuff seems to like exaggeration.

FcMAx5baAAYtLlh

Thanks. I forgot about the rail angle in all of this. That would be pretty significant if true.
 
How would they be cut off from supplies ? The map seems to indicate there is plenty of Russian controlled territory to the east of Izyum.
The bridge at Horokhovatka was the last Russian controlled main road going to Izyum from Kupiansk. Kupiansk is a major railroad hub in north eastern Ukraine and has been a key city for the Russians bringing in supplies for the whole Izyum area. There is still one smaller road, crossing the Oskil river directly east of Izyum that is under Russian control so I guess they are not completly cut off as that road is still open but Ukrainian positions south of Izyum in the Sloviansk direction should have that road within artillery range.
 
How would they be cut off from supplies ? The map seems to indicate there is plenty of Russian controlled territory to the east of Izyum.

The east is blocked off by the river Oskil. The Russians don't do river crossings very well. Horokhovatka, the last supply line bridge over the Oskil, is under Ukrainian fire control as of this morning I think.

Russians are now trying to use helicopters to send reserves to Izyum, but how many can you fit in a helicopter and also how many can avoid Ukrainian stinger missiles and starstreaks?
 
Last edited:
The feelings you write are very similar to some from Hungary, the people that want the West but are forced by a corrupt and immoral government to behave a different way.
It's a little more complicated than that; it's true that even Orbán's voters are more pro-EU than government rhetoric would lead you to believe but for most people, this "West v East" thing simply isn't that important. And the regime is not North Korea, the people aren't forced to behave in any way: it's a modern autocracy that is excellent at building media narratives and has no scruples whatsoever when it comes to exploiting just about anything (world events, the "culture war", anything) for its own purposes. Add a lot of gerrymandering and control over a whole media empire and it's easy to see why their power is so secure domestically.

However, they aren't as nakedly pro-Russian as you'd think - Orbán and co. are trying to be clever and play both sides to an extent. A couple days ago it's been announced thata new anti-corruption authority will be formed and in theory it is going to be independent of the government. Its main job will be to monitor the use of EU funds in Hungary. This is significant because it's one of the key complaints of the EU regarding Hungary: the level of corruption around EU funds. This new authority - though I don't expect any actual anti-corruption work from it, obviously - is a concession towards the EU and an attempt to get those sweet, temporarily frozen funds. In other words: they aren't ready to break with the EU, not yet, at least.

This is also off-topic to an extent, sorry about that.
 
It's a little more complicated than that; it's true that even Orbán's voters are more pro-EU than government rhetoric would lead you to believe but for most people, this "West v East" thing simply isn't that important. And the regime is not North Korea, the people aren't forced to behave in any way: it's a modern autocracy that is excellent at building media narratives and has no scruples whatsoever when it comes to exploiting just about anything (world events, the "culture war", anything) for its own purposes. Add a lot of gerrymandering and control over a whole media empire and it's easy to see why their power is so secure domestically.

However, they aren't as nakedly pro-Russian as you'd think - Orbán and co. are trying to be clever and play both sides to an extent. A couple days ago it's been announced thata new anti-corruption authority will be formed and in theory it is going to be independent of the government. Its main job will be to monitor the use of EU funds in Hungary. This is significant because it's one of the key complaints of the EU regarding Hungary: the level of corruption around EU funds. This new authority - though I don't expect any actual anti-corruption work from it, obviously - is a concession towards the EU and an attempt to get those sweet, temporarily frozen funds. In other words: they aren't ready to break with the EU, not yet, at least.

This is also off-topic to an extent, sorry about that.
It's the same for a lot of countries in Eastern Europe, including Romania. It's not pro Russia and be open about it. It's based on nationalism, fake best interest of the nation, the decadent West, etc (the point is for the former communist/ secret services scum/ corrupt to have similar control to what Putin has; it's not a Russian bias as it is, it is a dictatorship wanna be sentiment).

In Romania the TV media is also controlled by political parties (all of them are former communist scum). The population in Romania is hard core pro US and pro NATO so even the corrupt pro dictatorship party has to pretend to be as such. But if you fallow what they actually do, Romania is on a certain way road to European infringement due to protecting the corrupt rather then fighting against them. The one single benefit that Romania has is similar to Israel: it is essential to the alliance to any and all dangers are dealt with as a World Wide security issue. If it was not for the strategical importance, Romania would have been 10 time worse then Hungary.

All of Eastern Europe is infected by people and parties schooled by the communists and look upon dictators as a "how to get power" guide. The influence of the West, NATO and the EU is keeping these nations in check.
 
Russian KIA numbers:


No one is going to be doing that math in an official letter, it's also going to be classified. It's also a picture that I can recreate in 5 minutes without any authentication signs whatsoever. Looks extremely fake.


 
Are Russia really paying 122,000 USD for each soldier? Highly sceptical to be honest.
They are but they do everything possible not to — the most common tactic is to simply proclaim someone MIA instead of dead.
 
They are but they do everything possible not to — the most common tactic is to simply proclaim someone MIA instead of dead.
I looked it up, the 7m figure does seem to be mentioned by a couple of sources. So they're trying everything to avoid it? Could create resentment among their family members.

Anyway, that document would also then indeed somewhat confirm Ukraine's estimated numbers.
 
I looked it up, the 7m figure does seem to be mentioned by a couple of sources. So they're trying everything to avoid it? Could create resentment among their family members.

Anyway, that document would also then indeed somewhat confirm Ukraine's estimated numbers.
Original numbers were 7,4 million for a dead family member and something incredible like 3 million for wounded. Obviously the first issues began with the wounded soldiers — in the first months they were paying everyone, then they've tried to limit it to serious injuries, I believe etc.

But since the official number of losses is classified and there's tons of different bureaucracy surrounding the "special military operation", it's not hard to at least to prolongate the waiting period if not to escape having to pay anything at all. Look at the amount of bodies of Russian soldiers that Ukrainians still store in their freezers (and have they been doing it for months) — if there's no body, a soldier is proclaimed to be MIA so no compensation is needed. There were also reports of army officials/officers somehow tricking the system and taking the compensation money for themselves.

The sinking of Moskva was one of the few cases where the massive fraud with those compensations got exposed since they've refused to admit that Moskva was even participating in the operation, let alone that it was sank by a Ukrainian missile.

It's really simple in the end — you can't build an effective system when the data that it's supposed to be based upon is classified and the government is invested in keeping both the number of losses and the number of compensations as low as possible. As for the resentment among the family members? Yeah. Deaths of their children are also supposed to create such resentment but somehow it still haven't amounted into anything concrete.
 
Billionaire wants sanctions relief.

Russian businessman Mikhail Fridman is offering to transfer $1 billion of his personal wealth into a Ukrainian bank he co-founded, a proposal that people familiar with the issue said is intended to persuade the U.K. to lift sanctions against him.

Mr. Fridman’s proposal is among a number of overtures that blacklisted business executives, banks and companies are quietly making to Western authorities as those nations prosecute a campaign to economically cripple Russia in response to its war in Ukraine, according to U.S. officials.
Mr. Fridman denied having made a quid pro quo offer to Ukraine.
“The U.K. does not condone any sanctions avoidance,” the British Foreign Office said.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia...raine-in-hope-of-sanctions-relief-11662659071
 
As expected, decision made by the Bosnian FA about friendly with Russia has received huge backlash, especially from the Ukrainians. Official pages of NFSBIH are filled with comments of shocked Ukrainians who are very vocal in condemning us.

The damage is done, fecking nazi idiots have managed to put us all in the same basket.

Thanks for the support to the guys who responded to my tweet, I'm not going to post there anymore about Bosnia as that would mean derailing the thread and going offtopic.

I just hope we somehow find the way to limit influence of Serbs at least on these secondary things such as football, because regardless of how meaningless it is in grand scheme od things, it is sad to read what Ukrainians have to say about us, and not being able to respond knowing they are ultimately right.
 
As expected, decision made by the Bosnian FA about friendly with Russia has received huge backlash, especially from the Ukrainians. Official pages of NFSBIH are filled with comments of shocked Ukrainians who are very vocal in condemning us.

The damage is done, fecking nazi idiots have managed to put us all in the same basket.

Thanks for the support to the guys who responded to my tweet, I'm not going to post there anymore about Bosnia as that would mean derailing the thread and going offtopic.

I just hope we somehow find the way to limit influence of Serbs at least on these secondary things such as football, because regardless of how meaningless it is in grand scheme od things, it is sad to read what Ukrainians have to say about us, and not being able to respond knowing they are ultimately right.
I wouldn't put too much stock into online comments.
 
Sadly, I can't enjoy this as much as I would like.

This might be slightly off-topic, but not completely, and I'm just going to write it here to show you how difficult it is to deal with Russian satellite states.

As most of you are probably well aware by now, Bosnia is made od two entities, one of which (Republic of Srpska) is completely pro-Russian. Serbs gained it in 1992-1995 war, effectively splitting country in two parts, and the separation is visible in every possible way. To cut the long story short, Serbs have a long term goal of separating from Bosnia, and in order to do so, they are attempting to prove every day that coexistence is impossible.

Serbia is Russian ally, and has instigated a lot of political unrest in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro recently, with a long term goal of creating Greater Serbia, a country in which all Serbs would live. Of course, it has large parts of neighbouring countries in it.

Now, as I said, nothing is immune to this political divide. Bosniaks and Croats (well, mostly) are pro-European, pro-EU and pro-NATO, as we are well aware that it is our only way of survival to integrate into Europe and western civilization. But we can't make any decision without acceptance of Serbs. And they are not pro EU and are definitely anti-NATO, spewing some neutrality shite and hoping that Serbia will one day walk in there and liberate them the same way Russia is liberating Ukraine. Infact, there are lot of similarities in Russian and Serbian propaganda and war doctrine.

Information has come out today that Bosnian FA has accepted invitation from Russia to play a friendly in november in St. Petersburg. That was made possible by the fact that FA is now run by Serbs due to the rotation policy in Presidency. Vico Zeljkovic is president now, he is nephew of Serbian leader Milorad Dodik and yields a great amount of power. Dodik is Putin's lapdog.

I know football is not important, but this is football forum and I'm taking a wild guess many will see in november that Bosnia is playing Russia and take a guess that we are pro-Russian oriented. I just wanted to move your attention to the fact that we aren't. At least majority isn't. Serbs are. And their attempts to break away from Bosnia are well supported by Russia.

Once again, someone may dismiss this writing as bollocks and offtopic, but to me it isn't. I see this as just another step in attempting to cut us off from west and keep us in Russian sphere of interest. We don't want that, we need people to know where we stand but also that our hands are tied.

I for one always struggle to understand the politics of former Yugoslavia so thanks for that, tough times. There isn't another thread covering Russia's general antics and influence around the world so this is the place for it.
 
Putin: Now you see how right I was??

EDIT: if Germany indeed provided WW2 archive maps :nervous: :lol:
I'm pretty sure Ukraine has more modern maps of the area :lol:

However geography as such doesn't change so I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine is now reusing Wehrmacht battle plans. After all there is not much difference, the heavy weaponry is more modern and has longer ranges, but apart from that what does it matter? The basic principles still exist.
 
So much going on right now, reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs all over the Izyum area and even as far south as Lyman. There is talk of Russian troops scattered all over the place and retreating in full panic.
This is looking more and more like another goodwill operation from the Russians, similar to Kyiv and Snake Island.