Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Zehner said:
WHy do they do that only now, not earlier? Is it desperation or is something else behind that?
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Being able to gradually sell more to India and China. They need the money.
 
Zehner said:
WHy do they do that only now, not earlier? Is it desperation or is something else behind that?
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I don't think it would have made sense to do this earlier IF you fully believed (as I'm sure Putin did) that this would be a short war, and he could swiftly return to the 'status quo ante', except now with Ukraine within Russia's sphere of influence. It's now become apparent that this is impossible. So he needs a new plan, effective over a longer period of time.

What Putin has done is inflict severe short and medium term pain on European economies and people, at the expense of causing longer term pain on his own economy. It's a policy with a serious and potentially permanent downside for Russian finances, power, and influence. I'm guessing that 6 months ago he didn't think it was worth the pay-off. As I say, i'm suspicious that he really hasn't been given the whole truth by his advisers, so it's taken him longer than most to realise and come to terms with the fact that there will be no purely military victory. I think he assumed that after a military victory, with Zelensky captured or killed and a pro-Russian leader in his place, that these 'facts on the ground' would lead to the West eventually turning away, like they did with Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk. Had he known in advance that this would become a protracted conflict then I imagine he would have done precisely as you say, and turned off the taps from day one.
 
Zehner said:
But wouldn't it have made sense to do this earlier? I mean, the question is which side will lose more by it and if Russia is convinced it is Europe, then why not do it immediately?

I feel the impact would have been much harder than it is now a few weeks or even months ago.
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The moment Russia decides to actively shut down the pipeline is the moment when they are breaching their contracts and appearing as untrustworthy. So far they could (rightly) say that they are a reliable partner, and as long as that situation persisted there was the option that Europe starts buying again. During the whole war gas was flowing from Russia through Ukraine to Europe and neither of them dared to shut it down. Only now Russia has to realize that Europe will not step back from their decision and now is the only time to still have some leverage.
 
Zehner said:
But wouldn't it have made sense to do this earlier? I mean, the question is which side will lose more by it and if Russia is convinced it is Europe, then why not do it immediately?

I feel the impact would have been much harder than it is now a few weeks or even months ago.
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I'd imagine that cutting off the only reliable method of raising money that's been used to paint over the cracks on the entire foundation of Russia's failing economy was a big factor against doing it.

Limiting the supply allows you to both increase the pressure on Europe and keep the money flowing (less supply = higher price). Shutting it down leaves you with nothing.
 
harms said:
I'd imagine that cutting off the only reliable method of raising money that's been used to paint over the cracks on the entire foundation of Russia's failing economy was a big factor against doing it.

Limiting the supply allows you to both increase the pressure on Europe and keep the money flowing (less supply = higher price). Shutting it down leaves you with nothing.
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I think you're right but I'd love to see the numbers for this. We know he can keep selling to particularly China and India, but 1- it's at a discount, and 2- they don't have the infrastructure to sell as much as they did to Europe. It must be hurting Russia's economy significantly.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think you're right but I'd love to see the numbers for this. We know he can keep selling to particularly China and India, but 1- it's at a discount, and 2- they don't have the infrastructure to sell as much as they did to Europe. It must be hurting Russia's economy significantly.
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Russia is as capable of selling to other places as Europe is of buying it in other places. They will need massive new infrastructure, either in pipelines or LNG terminals to export elsewhere. Which is why they are burning it.
 
Sorry if this is a stupid question, I'm a real novice at this. Doesn't this mean he's effectively played his highest card? He can't switch off gas again, and surely Europe will just become more insistent on not remaining so dependant on Rusia? Does he have any larger economic tactic he can use, or has he now effectively run the full gamut of his economic strategy?
 
Erebus said:
Sorry if this is a stupid question, I'm a real novice at this. Doesn't this mean he's effectively played his highest card? He can't switch off gas again, and surely Europe will just become more insistent on not remaining so dependant on Rusia? Does he have any larger economic tactic he can use, or has he now effectively run the full gamut of his economic strategy?
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I also would like to know this. Is there any more impactful economic card Putin can play here?
 
Russian economy in big problems?

Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage

Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government.

The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...er-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns
 
Erebus said:
Sorry if this is a stupid question, I'm a real novice at this. Doesn't this mean he's effectively played his highest card? He can't switch off gas again, and surely Europe will just become more insistent on not remaining so dependant on Rusia? Does he have any larger economic tactic he can use, or has he now effectively run the full gamut of his economic strategy?
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He was ways going to cut off supplies this winter before people can put infra and supply chains in place for next winter

Gut feel they are hoping with a cold winter and facing potential black outs and gas cuts some countries may push for sanction relief / exemptions for gas

Probably not going to work as the eu seems fairly unified.
 
Ben Wallace with new stats on Russian casualties. Over 25K Russians estimated to have been killed.
More than six months into its war in Ukraine, Russia "has yet to achieve any of its strategic objectives" in its invasion, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Monday.

Russia "continues to lose significant equipment and personnel" in the war, he added, saying that the losses will have a lasting impact on Moscow's future combat effectiveness.

"It is estimated to date that over 25,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives. If you include killed, casualties, captured or the now reported tens of thousands of deserters — over 80,000 dead or injured and the other categories," Wallace said during a statement to lawmakers in the House of Commons.
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https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-05-22/index.html
 
Abizzz said:
Russia is as capable of selling to other places as Europe is of buying it in other places. They will need massive new infrastructure, either in pipelines or LNG terminals to export elsewhere. Which is why they are burning it.
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Yep, that was kind of my point!
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think you're right but I'd love to see the numbers for this. We know he can keep selling to particularly China and India, but 1- it's at a discount, and 2- they don't have the infrastructure to sell as much as they did to Europe. It must be hurting Russia's economy significantly.
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Russian ministry of finance predicts that the export of oil and gas is going to account for more than 40% of Russia's state budget revenue in 2022 (that's from the 20th of June).
Based on the numbers from January to May 2022 Russia has already earned ~59% of what they expected to earn from oil & gas prices in 2022.



Here's an article that seems to cover a lot of points on gas exports (Carnegie are usually decent)
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If Russia stops selling gas to Europe, its budget losses may reach $40 billion. That’s certainly a significant sum for the Russian government, but it is an easier sacrifice than oil. And if gas sales are not stopped altogether, but merely curtailed, much of the monetary loss could be recouped through price growth. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller boasted recently that decreased exports to the EU are fully compensated for by higher prices, and his company couldn’t be happier about it.
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It will be almost impossible to recoup those losses in short-to-mid perspective. The pipeline to China only can move 38 billion m2 of gas per year while North Stream-1 alone moves more than 59 billion m2. And, obviously, China and India are in a very comfortable position negotiation-wise — Russia has to sell it to them, it simply doesn't have any other options.
 
harms said:
Russian ministry of finance predicts that the export of oil and gas is going to account for more than 40% of Russia's state budget revenue in 2022 (that's from the 20th of June).
Based on the numbers from January to May 2022 Russia has already earned ~59% of what they expected to earn from oil & gas prices in 2022.



Here's an article that seems to cover a lot of points on gas exports (Carnegie are usually decent)


It will be almost impossible to recoup those losses in short-to-mid perspective. The pipeline to China only can move 38 billion m2 of gas per year while North Stream-1 alone moves more than 59 billion m2. And, obviously, China and India are in a very comfortable position negotiation-wise — Russia has to sell it to them, it simply doesn't have any other options.
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That's a very useful article, thanks!
 
Wonder if we'll hear more noise about upping military aid to Ukraine.

 

Signs of desperation there, not like North Korea would have been storing their ammo from 60s in any better conditions than Russia. Most of it likely to be found unusable when it arrives to the front. Also, could be China supplying it actually via NK, but who knows.
 
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Early signs but it seems that Rascist Kherson frontline is beginning to crumble. Fingers crossed.
 
Rajma said:
Early signs but it seems that Rascist Kherson frontline is beginning to crumble. Fingers crossed.
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Let’s hope so. Interesting that Ukraine said today that they were expanding their counter attack across the South-East and East of the country. I have no idea which army is capable of fighting along the longest front line, Ukraine must think it is them who can.
 
Ukraine are doing a good job of keeping their activities quiet, there's hardly any footage getting out, just the odd titbit.

Moving past destroyed enemy armour is certainly a good sign, but this might just be one road on what is a massive front.
 
Simbo said:
Ukraine are doing a good job of keeping their activities quiet, there's hardly any footage getting out, just the odd titbit.

Moving past destroyed enemy armour is certainly a good sign, but this might just be one road on what is a massive front.
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Considering the success stories about geolocation, I'm happier to see as little as possible right now.
 
Simbo said:
Ukraine are doing a good job of keeping their activities quiet, there's hardly any footage getting out, just the odd titbit.

Moving past destroyed enemy armour is certainly a good sign, but this might just be one road on what is a massive front.
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"AFU is punishing the occupants for illegal parking on the territory of Ukraine"
 
According to Sky within the last hour:

Ukraine to announce 'good news' on counteroffensive tonight

An adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Serhiy Leshchenko, said: "Tonight there is going to be great news from President Zelenskiy on [the] counteroffensive operation in Kharkiv region."

He did not give any further details.

It's interesting to see the effective radio silence observed by Ukraine whilst attacking, as compared to the Russian's and their almost deliberate lack of any notion of operational security.

Let's hope it's something positive. I feel like we'd know if there had been any kind of large scale collapse of the Russian front line but again, that's me incorrectly basing my expectations on the media output during the Russia offensive.
 
Jotun said:
Source?
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Just a general feeling of mine after seeing an uptick in losses and POWs from Russian side in Kherson region from multiple sources and the issues with ammo supplies they’re faced after all the bridges have been put out of order. I think in two months time we should see Ukraine holding the Kherson again.
 
Rajma said:
Just a general feeling of mine after seeing an uptick in losses and POWs from Russian side in Kherson region from multiple sources and the issues with ammo supplies they’re faced after all the bridges have been put out of order. I think in two months time we should see Ukraine holding the Kherson again.
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Can you link some of those sources. I'm struggling to find anything meaningful regarding the operation.
 
dove said:
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Good thread. I suspect the Russians are in a bit of a quagmire because they don't have the resources to do anything other than defend (other than using nukes of course, which are a non starter)
 
stefan92 said:
They neither expected the war to escalate to this level nor the fierce response to it.
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It’s pretty negligible not to account for all possible outcomes in advance though. It’s not exactly been that crazy a scenario so far, even if not the one they expected.
 
VeevaVee said:
It’s pretty negligible not to account for all possible outcomes in advance though. It’s not exactly been that crazy a scenario so far, even if not the one they expected.
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The invasion has been done based on fundamentally flawed assumptions and view of reality due to the consistent misreporting of intel. I mean their baseline scenario was probably around 2 weeks of combat, so you can see how they might not even have considered such a fallout.
 
Rajma said:
The invasion has been done based on fundamentally flawed assumptions and view of reality due to the consistent misreporting of intel. I mean their baseline scenario was probably around 2 weeks of combat, so you can see how they might not even have considered such a fallout.
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I'd think that your 2 weeks of combat would have been their worst case scenario... their move for Kiyv looked like they tried to repeat Germany taking Austria in 1938 (no shots fired)...
 
stefan92 said:
I'd think that your 2 weeks of combat would have been their worst case scenario... their move for Kiyv looked like they tried to repeat Germany taking Austria in 1938 (no shots fired)...
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I think they would have expected some resistance in Donbass for a couple of weeks from some units even with Kiyv captured and Zelensky gone.
 
stefan92 said:
I'd think that your 2 weeks of combat would have been their worst case scenario... their move for Kiyv looked like they tried to repeat Germany taking Austria in 1938 (no shots fired)...
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I feel 2 weeks is pushing it a bit, they will have known that the Ukrainian air force might survive the initial attempt at destruction, and again will have known that battles for places like Kyiv could turn into street-by-street urban warfare. Plus the vast size of the country of course, which would allow the formation of armies in places like Lviv. I think what they weren't prepared for was the systematic destruction of a huge portion of their military power and equipment. Their previous tactics (if you want to even call them that) seem to have involved forcing victory through sheer weight of numbers. I don't think they ever made a proper plan for what would happen if Ukraine began to achieve parity, the idea would have seemed absurd to a Kremlin war planner
 
NicolaSacco said:
I feel 2 weeks is pushing it a bit, they will have known that the Ukrainian air force might survive the initial attempt at destruction, and again will have known that battles for places like Kyiv could turn into street-by-street urban warfare. Plus the vast size of the country of course, which would allow the formation of armies in places like Lviv. I think what they weren't prepared for was the systematic destruction of a huge portion of their military power and equipment. Their previous tactics (if you want to even call them that) seem to have involved forcing victory through sheer weight of numbers. I don't think they ever made a proper plan for what would happen if Ukraine began to achieve parity, the idea would have seemed absurd to a Kremlin war planner
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The point is, it didn't (partially) look like they expected having to fight at all. Reports were that the VDV that landed near Kiyv started controlling traffic. You don't do that if you fight a war, you do that if you are part of a (mostly peaceful) regime change.
 
Will be somewhat fascinating to see how the Ukrainian population moves on from this war once it's over (and won). Will it strengthen their feeling of nationhood? Will it leave them traumatized? How do those who mainly speak Russian (Kharkiv region I think) reflect on this?

Where I come from, war stories tend to be passed down from elders to youngsters and it's a popular subject at dinner tables, especially when alcohol makes the men emotional. For Ukrainians, their heroic defence will surely be mythologized in their own folklore.
 
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