Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Polish President Duda just announced that Poland will hand over a certain amount of Leo tanks to Ukraine as part of the broader coalition. Hopefully the floodgates will open up now.
 
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Polish President Duda just announced that Poland will hand over a certain amount of Leo tanks to Ukraine as part of the broader coalition.
Now that's gonna be interesting. This is either a breach of contract, or Poland did get green light from Germany for that transfer.

In the latter case this would open the possibility for lots of countries to provide Leopard tanks, and if he talks about a broad coalition I think that's probably the case.
 
There have been talk of a coalition between Leopard using countries to create a pool of tanks from their stocks to give to Ukraine, Sounds like this is happening now.

A company of tanks is what Poland is giving according to Twitter that sould mean something like 14-17 tanks.
 
This time, it sounds serious.
So far the battle isn't over, but it doesn't look good for Ukraine. There even is a video already showing Wagner's head Prigozhin below the front line (in the tunnels of the salt mine, referring to Ukrainians being 2km above him). But of course that might be fake, there are plenty of mines in Russia where you could film such a video.

But so far the AFU haven't left Soledar and keep fighting.
 
An Italian newspaper citing a “military source” worried about the West actually depleting their own primary stocks with all these passing on to Ukraine.

Unlike Russia, western nations aren't under sanctions and have the wherewithall to replenish what they use. But given that they are at war with Russia (albeit as a proxy war), they are actually using their munitions for the reason they were created in the first place.
 

Surovikin didn’t last too long. The strategy of his to bombard the Ukraine has resulted in influx of western AD systems in huge numbers while depleting strategic stocks of cruise missiles and failing to blackout Ukraine amidst the winter.
 

Surovikin didn’t last too long. The strategy of his to bombard the Ukraine has resulted in influx of western AD systems in huge numbers while depleting strategic stocks of cruise missiles and failing to blackout Ukraine amidst the winter.


He can return to his career as a Dr. Evil impersonator
 

Surovikin didn’t last too long. The strategy of his to bombard the Ukraine has resulted in influx of western AD systems in huge numbers while depleting strategic stocks of cruise missiles and failing to blackout Ukraine amidst the winter.

While that strategy failed did the Russian troops on the ground not have too many setbacks during Surovikin's time in charge. Yes, they did lose Kherson, but even that was not as chaotic as other retreats and they were on losing grounds when he started.

Let's hope they start actung stupid again under Gerasimov's command.
 
UK to supply Ukraine with tanks (likely Challengers).


Kasparov as always on point, I have been saying the same from day 1.
 
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This is a concern. Holding out in Bahmut and getting weapons but is it worth it in regards to man power. Russians have still about 100.000 soldiers or something yet to be thrown to the front.

I think its fairly normal for Wagner to make occasional gains in certain areas. Although smaller in number, they are well trained from past experience. The Ukrainians simply have continue executing their plans to continue chipping away at territory in the south and east and be prepared for another offensive to reclaim all lost territory once the weather clears up in March.
 
UK to supply Ukraine with tanks (likely Challengers).


Kasparov as always on point, I have been saying the same from day 1.

The cynic in me thinks the west are using this as an opportunity to completely deplete Russia at the expense of Ukraine. Had the west done all of that from day 1, Russia would still have its army as well as its ’aura’
 
I think its fairly normal for Wagner to make occasional gains in certain areas. Although smaller in number, they are well trained from past experience. The Ukrainians simply have continue executing their plans to continue chipping away at territory in the south and east and be prepared for another offensive to reclaim all lost territory once the weather clears up in March.
Unfortunately, due to slow and low supplies from the west in terms of heavy weapons means that Russia will gather resources for another offensive first, and only after Ukraine withstands this final push they will have the window for a final counteroffensive, likely in the early summer. It was an arm race (for the next offensive attempt) and west has failed Ukraine as it had all the momentum.
 
Not sure how those different tanks they’ll be getting will work out logistically speaking on the front, I’d rather countries would have just agreed to deliver a big quantity of one model of which there are huge stocks (e.g. Abrams).
 
Unfortunately, due to slow and low supplies from the west in terms of heavy weapons means that Russia will gather resources for another offensive first, and only after Ukraine withstands this final push they will have the window for a final counteroffensive, likely in the early summer. It was an arm race (for the next offensive attempt) and west has failed Ukraine as it had all the momentum.
Yes, the supply lines are so slow and the politics are abysmal. But we can't forget that there have been hundreds if not thousands of Ukrainian soldiers overseas to be trained to use all this "western" hardware, it's not like they can just hand them over in a matter of speech without any training or instruction.
 
Yes, the supply lines are so slow and the politics are abysmal. But we can't forget that there have been hundreds if not thousands of Ukrainian soldiers overseas to be trained to use all this "western" hardware, it's not like they can just hand them over in a matter of speech without any training or instruction.
Russia is now playing a long game and stalling things using all its means because it knows how fragile western politics are at the moment. This year will already gonna be occupied by the upcoming Presidential elections in US and the support for Ukraine will further diminish via public pressures given the resources Russia pouring into the troll armies / bots and populist politicians. For me the most infuriating thing about our supposed western leaders is that they did not provide absolutely everything at the peak of the support for Ukraine across general population. Clowns.
 
Russia is now playing a long game and stalling things using all its means because it knows how fragile western politics are at the moment. This year will already gonna be occupied by the upcoming Presidential elections in US and the support for Ukraine will further diminish via public pressures given the resources Russia pouring into the troll armies / bots and populist politicians. For me the most infuriating thing about our supposed western leaders is that they did not provide absolutely everything at the peak of the support for Ukraine across general population. Clowns.
I work in intelligence and I am also familiar with our Political scene here - so yes it's been as you described, but we can't also forget how European countries are seriously lacking the military needs themselves also. It's been widely known and said how the situation within many was before the war and how it was hard to make a lot of them to submit their 2% for NATO. There is a reason why Estonia/Latvia/Poland etc are the front runners.
 
I work in intelligence and I am also familiar with our Political scene here - so yes it's been as you described, but we can't also forget how European countries are seriously lacking the military needs themselves also. It's been widely known and said how the situation within many was before the war and how it was hard to make a lot of them to submit their 2% for NATO. There is a reason why Estonia/Latvia/Poland etc are the front runners.
That’s true for Europe but I’m also blaming Biden for a very reserved approach, the US has so much military capacity just dusting off somewhere in Nevada deserts that it could blow away Russia a few times over in no time instead the best of Ukrainian people are dying for no good reason but for hesitation of Biden admin.
 
I think its fairly normal for Wagner to make occasional gains in certain areas. Although smaller in number, they are well trained from past experience. The Ukrainians simply have continue executing their plans to continue chipping away at territory in the south and east and be prepared for another offensive to reclaim all lost territory once the weather clears up in March.
Yes but is UAF losing too many soldiers in Bahmut which can be used elsewhere. Also theres still a possibility of Russians pushing from Belarus. As the article says casualties kaj for men are going in Russia favour apparently.
 
That’s true for Europe but I’m also blaming Biden for a very reserved approach, the US has so much military capacity just dusting off somewhere in Nevada deserts that it could blow away Russia a few times over in no time instead the best of Ukrainian people are dying for no good reason but for hesitation of Biden admin.

He had to navigate the midterms first. And he had to get his European allies (France, Germany, and Italy) to agree to crossing that line with him. Plus, it is not as straightforward as you make it sound with "so much military capacity just dusting off somewhere."

This quotation comes from an insightful paper published by The Washington Post a few weeks ago.

"A shortage of artillery ammunition of all sorts remains a weakness. Although production increases are planned, the U.S. defense industry can presently build about 14,000 155 mm howitzer rounds per month, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said in an interview. According to U.S. defense officials, Ukrainian forces have fired that amount in two days during periods of heavy fighting."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/23/ukraine-weapons-biden/


This being said, I am more optimistic now, since Zelenskiy's visit to D.C... Most of the hesitation seems to be behind us now.
 
Very serious, a small town (2km long) with remaining population of 500 people in ruins might be finally taken after half a year of enormous losses. Master strategists.
I'm saying it looks legitimate this time.
 
While that strategy failed did the Russian troops on the ground not have too many setbacks during Surovikin's time in charge. Yes, they did lose Kherson, but even that was not as chaotic as other retreats and they were on losing grounds when he started.

Let's hope they start actung stupid again under Gerasimov's command.

I think they most likely will. I watched Mark Hertling giving his opinion to Erin Burnett's show almost an hour ago, and he said that putting Gerasimov in that position is like pulling Gen. Mark Milley out of his position as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff so he can command the troops directly on the ground. It is not a job for a 4-star general, but he is most likely there because he's a member of Putin's inner circle.
 
Prigozhin just uploaded photos of Christopher Parry’s and Andrew Bagshaw’s passports :(

Those are (were?) the 2 volunteers that disappeared a few days ago near Soledar, they were helping to evacuate civilians.
 

With all due respect it’s clearly mostly nonsense, once Russia got pushed out from Kiev it was clear back then what sort of weapons they’ll eventually require to liberate their territories fully. It’s purely political unwillingness, Poland has offered to transfer their Mig fighters that Ukrainians operate already long time ago but US refused, longer range (140km) HIMARS rockets refused despite Ukraine operating them for several months, they would have known at the beginning that without western tanks and IFV they wouldn’t stand a chance to liberate full territory, meaning either they refused or didn’t set the war aims properly due to hesitation.
 
With all due respect it’s clearly mostly nonsense, once Russia got pushed out from Kiev it was clear back then what sort of weapons they’ll eventually require to liberate their territories fully. It’s purely political unwillingness, Poland has offered to transfer their Mig fighters that Ukrainians operate already long time ago but US refused, longer range (140km) HIMARS rockets refused despite Ukraine operating them for several months, they would have known at the beginning that without western tanks and IFV they wouldn’t stand a chance to liberate full territory, meaning either they refused or didn’t set the war aims properly due to hesitation.
Agree with you. Obviously you can't just send complicated stuff and immediately use it, but there was a lot of time to already take care of training etc so that things could be send now.
 
Russia is now playing a long game and stalling things using all its means because it knows how fragile western politics are at the moment. This year will already gonna be occupied by the upcoming Presidential elections in US and the support for Ukraine will further diminish via public pressures given the resources Russia pouring into the troll armies / bots and populist politicians. For me the most infuriating thing about our supposed western leaders is that they did not provide absolutely everything at the peak of the support for Ukraine across general population. Clowns.
The long game is all Russia has, they lack the power for short term tactical wins, and even there, their hand is weak. Bleeding money and weapons, the destabilising effect on russian politics of two huge mercenary groups, massive increases in crime, Putin's own health issues. The pressure is far more on them than on the west.
 
The cynic in me thinks the west are using this as an opportunity to completely deplete Russia at the expense of Ukraine. Had the west done all of that from day 1, Russia would still have its army as well as its ’aura’
I'm think you're giving you're giving our politicians way too much credit. They don't think that far ahead and are only thinking in the terms of the next election. The truth is more prosaic me thinks. A substantial amount of the population in the West is afraid of Russian retaliations. The big bear to the east with it's wonder weapons still weighs heavily on the minds of many. Maybe less so in the UK than other European countries.
 
I'm think you're giving you're giving our politicians way too much credit. They don't think that far ahead and are only thinking in the terms of the next election. The truth is more prosaic me thinks. A substantial amount of the population in the West is afraid of Russian retaliations. The big bear to the east with it's wonder weapons still weighs heavily on the minds of many. Maybe less so in the UK than other European countries.

It’s even more prosaic: many politicians in the West were directly or indirectly paid by Russia as lobbyists or worse.