Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Counterfactual said:
OK, I may be utterly wrong here, but does anyone else think that the Russians have what they want currently? They have Crimea, plus the "land bridge" from Russia through Ukraine. Is it possible they just dig in, hold what they have and hope the West get bored?
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That is probably their gameplan right now. Thing is, they need to legalize their conquests in order to get rid of the sanctions, and Ukraine isn't going to settle for the current scenario. So they would need a significant change of heart in the West in order to get rid of the sanctions and get back to "normal". And time would cost them money and people.
 
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Counterfactual said:
OK, I may be utterly wrong here, but does anyone else think that the Russians have what they want currently? They have Crimea, plus the "land bridge" from Russia through Ukraine. Is it possible they just dig in, hold what they have and hope the West get bored?
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I think militarily, this is probably all they're capable of, I just don't see how Putin can spin it politically. He entered them into this conflict with very grandiose claims, and now all they have to show for it is, I think, 15% of Ukrainian territory.
 
Counterfactual said:
As someone who doesn't follow it minute-to-minute, the map seems fairly static to me.
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You are right. But it's static because currently Russia's attacks are all repelled and the Ukrainian try very little at the moment, possibly because they are to busy defending.
 
Counterfactual said:
OK, I may be utterly wrong here, but does anyone else think that the Russians have what they want currently? They have Crimea, plus the "land bridge" from Russia through Ukraine. Is it possible they just dig in, hold what they have and hope the West get bored?
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Territorially, perhaps. But more than anything, what they wanted was regime change and to be able to have decisive political power in their sphere of influence. Not only have they not got that, but if Ukraine doesn't get a peace they can be happy with, they might get a angry ill disposed neighbor armed to the teeth next to them.
 
Krakenzero said:
That is probably their gameplan right now. Thing is, they need to legalize their conquests in order to get rid of the sanctions, and Ukraine isn't going to settle for the current scenario. So they would need a significant change of heart in the West in order to get rid of the sanctions and get back to "normal". And time would cost them money and people.
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even if Russia settled for this,
Even if the west got bored and legitimised this approach,
Ukraine wouldn’t stop fighting either, they just wouldn’t be able to keep the areas safe.
 
Counterfactual said:
As someone who doesn't follow it minute-to-minute, the map seems fairly static to me.
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You also have to bear in mind that Ukraine are well past the point of return in terms of settling for anything less than reclaiming all of their land. The sanctions on Putin also wouldn't go away if there was a peace agreement since he would still be sitting on stolen land. This conflict will continue until one of the two sides is vanquished.
 
stefan92 said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-03/germany-sweden-in-talks-over-anti-missile-systems-for-ukraine?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall

Interesting talk. Just about launchers and missiles, but not about radars or control units.

If that really is the full scope I can only assume that this means adding the Swedish IRIS-T SL launchers as short range option to the medium range IRIS-T SLM systems, but not creating new air defense units. Which would make a lot of sense because that way the unmodified IRIS-T can be used, of which a lot of stock exists due to it being the default AA missile of the Eurofighter and the more expensive and rare bigger variant would only be used if really necessary.
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Using the SLS missiles in order to save the SLM's makes a lot of sense since they are mostly used against low flying targets where it's usually radar coverage that is the limiting factor, not missile range.
 
What he actually means is the preservation of his own regime and life.

 
Organic Potatoes said:
You don't need to regularly remind us that no one knows anything. It is kind of baked in to the general consciousness at this point.

And besides: you don't know that.
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Whatever i need is not of your concern. Ill post is as much times i feel like ;)

Thanks
 
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Norway has officially ordered 54 new Leopard 2A7 to replace our old 36 (operational) Leopard 2A4. It probably won't really affect deliveries of equipment to Ukraine, at least not in the short to medium term, but it's very likely that it was itself affected by the war. For a while now there were basically two candidates, the Leopard 2A7 or the South Korean K2 Black Panther, and more recently the discussion turned to whether or not we even needed to buy new tanks at all, or perhaps spend it on other equipment. Seems likely that the war pushed the debate in the favour of getting the new tanks, and more specifically getting the Leopards that all of our close neighbours use.

We were actually supposed to order 18 more, and still might, but I reckon that's going to be sort of the compromise. We'll probably spend the money on artillery and/or anti-air systems.
 
nimic said:
Norway has officially ordered 54 new Leopard 2A7 to replace our old 36 (operational) Leopard 2A4. It probably won't really affect deliveries of equipment to Ukraine, at least not in the short to medium term, but it's very likely that it was itself affected by the war. For a while now there were basically two candidates, the Leopard 2A7 or the South Korean K2 Black Panther, and more recently the discussion turned to whether or not we even needed to buy new tanks at all, or perhaps spend it on other equipment. Seems likely that the war pushed the debate in the favour of getting the new tanks, and more specifically getting the Leopards that all of our close neighbours use.

We were actually supposed to order 18 more, and still might, but I reckon that's going to be sort of the compromise. We'll probably spend the money on artillery and/or anti-air systems.
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The manufacturer is going to make zillions during and after this war for a long time. Tip for investing :drool:
 
the hea said:
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Apparently, these will arrive in the spring together with new HIMARs launchers programmed which will accommodate for these bombs. However, Ukraine still needs long-range ACATMS missiles for deterrence purposes, based on symmetrical warfare principles. Only long-range capabilities will make Russia think about conducting these massive strikes on civilians in the rear.
 
Raoul said:
The pros and cons of killing Zelenskyy

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In ice hockey, we often say that you should not start something that can't finish. In other words, you better be ready to anwser the bell (i.e. drop the gloves and fight) once you throw a dirty hit because you will be regarded as a dirty pussy if you don't.

The point of that hockey reference? If those Russians approve of targeting a Head of State, then they better understand that Putin becomes a target as well.
 
WASHINGTON — The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials.

The Russian military has been following the Wagner playbook and deliberately using the poorly trained troops to draw, and deplete, Ukrainian fire, senior American military and defense officials said.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html
 
VorZakone said:
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We all know that Russians are paying for propaganda in the West. It was the same during USSR, they were giving money to various communist parties in European countries.

I don't know why nothing is being done about this. Recently, some EU officials (among them a Greek member of the European parliament) were jailed because of the Qatargate. I'd guess that Russians give much more money than Qatar and Morocco, but I have never heard about any arrests for Russian money.
 
frostbite said:
We all know that Russians are paying for propaganda in the West. It was the same during USSR, they were giving money to various communist parties in European countries.

I don't know why nothing is being done about this. Recently, some EU officials (among them a Greek member of the European parliament) were jailed because of the Qatargate. I'd guess that Russians give much more money than Qatar and Morocco, but I have never heard about any arrests for Russian money.
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There have been in the US, jail for some of them
 
Red in STL said:
There have been in the US, jail for some of them
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Well, I mean in Europe. And about politicians. In Qatargate they jailed the vice-president of the European Parliament (which is a good thing, in my opinion... and it shows that they can do it, if they want to).

But anyway, since I am not familiar with the US cases, did they jail any politicians over Russian money?


(Edit: Perhaps the Russians and KGB have much more experience in paying European politicians, so they don't leave traces, Qatar was inexperienced... )
 
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Raoul said:
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Problem is the timing, everything is taking so long, when exactly are these rockets going to be ready? Nothing in stock as it needs to be manufactured first, such decision (providing longer range) should have been made a few months ago at very least for it to properly impact the state of affairs in the theater. That’s why ATACMS still make sense in current situation as it something that can be delivered instantly, having an immediate effect.
 
VorZakone said:
What the hell is this? :lol:

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Dude, who got thrown out of the Far-right Party here and just showed up at their meeting - not 100% sure of the details, but you can't really now say that he might not be paid off by Russians themselves or just a moron.
 
A bit desperate to do shit-posting like this with their official MFA account, isn't it? :lol:
 
frostbite said:
(Edit: Perhaps the Russians and KGB have much more experience in paying European politicians, so they don't leave traces, Qatar was inexperienced... )
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That definitely makes more sense than suggesting the justice system in European countries are willingly turning a blind eye to Russian corruption only to fight corruption by “more friendly” countries…
 
Rajma said:
Problem is the timing, everything is taking so long, when exactly are these rockets going to be ready? Nothing in stock as it needs to be manufactured first, such decision (providing longer range) should have been made a few months ago at very least for it to properly impact the state of affairs in the theater. That’s why ATACMS still make sense in current situation as it something that can be delivered instantly, having an immediate effect.
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At this stage you never believe official, or leaked, timelines
 
Rajma said:
Problem is the timing, everything is taking so long, when exactly are these rockets going to be ready? Nothing in stock as it needs to be manufactured first, such decision (providing longer range) should have been made a few months ago at very least for it to properly impact the state of affairs in the theater. That’s why ATACMS still make sense in current situation as it something that can be delivered instantly, having an immediate effect.
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The production might not take as long as one would expect at first, the GLSDB is actually made out of two already existing components, the air launched Small Diameter Bomb from Boeing and rocket engines from decommissioned M26 rockets for the M270/M142 system. So although it's a new type of ammunition most of the components are already available from current stocks, it's only the production of the adapter and assembly that would be required.
 
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