Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Morty_ said:
At some point you just got to blame the people for falling for obvious BS though.

Different case, but, take Brexit, i don't blame "remain" nearly as much as i blame the opposition for being idiots, they even had a chance to correct it but didn't, oh well.
Click to expand...
Problem is, being duped or not, they also vote. Governments must deal with this.
 
Morty_ said:
Which again, makes little sense.

NATO-countries are not exactly bankrupting themselves on Ukraine, they are not even spending that much compared to GDP.

The money that goes to Ukraine isn't going to save the healthcare or education system, that would simply be misinformation.
Click to expand...
I mean, people not seeing the long-term picture and generally being selfish is shocking, right? That's why the likes of Putin and Xi have been doing what's best for their country for the long term, without all this stupid stuff like voting and democracy, because what would the average citizen know?

At least that's what they said in those countries, including mine.
 
I'm sceptical about "no concessions" regarding Crimea but we'll see.

 
VorZakone said:
Popular current narrative is that Russia is "losing" or has "lost" the war from a strategic viewpoint.

Personally, I think the situation remains rather dire for Ukraine nevertheless. Putin will continue the war and the Russian military is far from defeated yet. So I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine defeats Russia on the battleground. Not without both countries going absolutely all the way, risking major economic/demographic collapse while losing millions of men.

There is this weird notion on Reddit sometimes of Russia being just on the brink of collapsing. It's just not true. There are, depending on your source, about 200,000 to 400,000 Russian troops still present in Ukraine and they can throw in more if they want. The usual arguments about "logistical problems" and such may be valid but Ukrainians are still getting killed everyday so evidently Russia is arming its troops. If you think there'll be a moment in the short term where the Russians will be without weapons or ammo, I got a bridge to sell you.

With all that being said, we should keep supporting Ukraine. But unless we increase both the pace and amount of aid we deliver, this will remain a grinding attrition war that could last a couple of years more. And Putin will be all to happy to turn this into a frozen conflict and keep Ukraine unstable, scare investors away from Ukraine, and destroy hopes of Ukraine joining EU or NATO.

I hope I'm wrong but sadly it seems Ukraine would need a miracle for this war to end quick, like Putin getting overthrown or dying from natural causes and his successor blaming it all on Putin and withdrawing.
Click to expand...

I agree people need to give up the notion of Russia possibly collapsing, I think that's a hangover from Ukraine's large territorial gains last year and casual observers thinking its still a possibility again. I don't see that opinion being widespread, though I don't spend much time on the reddit subs. Also, people do need to snap out of the idea of this ending any time soon. Humans are impatient, its only natural, checking for Ukraine updates in 4 month increments is probably the way to go. Personally I don't see that much urgency on Ukraine's side, its just about getting the job done at minimal cost and the only cost that matters is Ukrainian lives. Of course there's a cost of delay, the people suffering in occupied territories, and there's a cost of action. Only the Ukraine leadership can weigh those scales.

Having said that, Ukraine is clearly winning from a strategic viewpoint and I don't see much debate in it. They have made enormous gains this year and will continue to do so. People just looking at territorial changes are completely missing what a strategic view actually is.

When was the last time we heard about Russia's massive artillery advantage? Numbers of around 7-1 used to be the norm of what we'd hear from focal points on the front lines. I'm not sure when that ended, but you hear more nowadays about Russian troops' complaining about lack of ammo. Sure Russian isn't ever "running out of ammo", but lets not pretend they are ever getting that advantage back. Ukraine's own ammunition production and commitments from the EU and elsewhere only continue to grow.

Russia's ballistic missile capability has greatly diminished, both in depleted stocks and Ukraine's defence against them. At the same time Ukraine has gained its own ballistic missile and long range drone capability, a huge swing in Ukraine's favour.

All the other equipment that continues to flow in, Abrams and challengers might get the headlines, but they are minor compared to the hundreds of other tanks and vehicles delivered from various countries. Not to mention the F-16's... Ukraine soon gets a much needed replenishment of its air force, with something that can pretty much use any weapon in the NATO arsenal.

Ukraine has pretty much won the Naval war... Ridiculous. Have some people missed this event? Vital for opening Crimea up to attack, which they have effectively demonstrated, and preventing naval supply if/when the land bridge is cut.

If Russian has actually gained a strategic advantage in any area the last 6 months, please enlighten me, there must be something. The information war maybe...

Almost forgot about the mutiny... Anyone who thinks Russian politics is stable can go bridge shopping too. Oh and their economy, Putin's own budget might just do more damage than any sanction scheme could.
 
Last edited:
VorZakone said:
Click to expand...

Feels like this has been going on for a long time now. Just look at Elon Musk and all the shit he is spreading to sow discord, along with the likes of a Marjorie and Donald. And it seems to work on a certain contingent of people. Seems like there is a serious groundswell of anti Ukranian sentiment growing in Europe as well.
 
VorZakone said:
Click to expand...

Well that’s been obvious for months. What isn’t obvious are the many well thought of steps undertaken to stop this. Where are they?

This is what pisses me of. And it’s not just about Ukraine. Every three year old who once pooped on their parents sociology book understands what’s been happening for years. But as I understand it, no bigger government is doing anything to stop the spread of misinformation via the internet. It’s just complaining here and there and otherwise it’s business as usual. The whole political landscape worldwide is under attack and nobody seems to think it’s their job to do something about it.
 
Redplane said:
Feels like this has been going on for a long time now. Just look at Elon Musk and all the shit he is spreading to sow discord, along with the likes of a Marjorie and Donald. And it seems to work on a certain contingent of people. Seems like there is a serious groundswell of anti Ukranian sentiment growing in Europe as well.
Click to expand...

At least a decade really.
 
The Ukrainians have also started to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to scan large amounts of imagery and so identify objects with specific forms, such as rectangular features with specific width and length ratios, so revealing Russian trucks and tanks for targeting.

Once the leaves fall and the ground is covered with a thin layer of snow, with mud that cuts through the snow, anyone walking or driving a tracked vehicle will be detected by AI. What will it do? Properly designed AI will browse enormous amounts of imagery and find objects within the images, or changes revealing activity or the lack of it.
Click to expand...
https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-war-of-the-treelines/
 
Are there any parallels to the Russian/Afghan war?
Russia didn’t really lose that one iirc, just got worn down from the casualty rate and probably more importantly for them, the cost of it.
Different stakes here alright though.

So, how long till Russia goes broke?
Is that what the west wants?
And then what - a power vacuum in Russia? That may not suit the west.
 
utdalltheway said:
Are there any parallels hto the Russian/Afghan war?
Russia didn’t really lose that one iirc, just got worn down from the casualty rate and probably more importantly for them, the cost of it.
Different stakes here alright though.

So, how long till Russia goes broke?
Is that what the west wants?
And then what - a power vacuum in Russia? That may not suit the west.
Click to expand...
The Soviet Union was a stronger power than Russia and the Mujahideen weren't as equipped as the Ukrainians. The casualties that Russia is taking in Ukraine are far greater than the Soviets in Afghanistan.

The Afghan war took a big toll on Soviet economy if I recall correctly. The same is expected to happen to Russia but we're not there yet.
 
utdalltheway said:
So, how long till Russia goes broke?
Click to expand...

That's the question everyone is asking. They've saved a ton of foreign currency over the years selling gas and oil to Europe and especially Germany. It will take some time to deplete them, although if reports are true and Putin plans to use every third ruble on his war machine next year, they could collapse faster. They have also many Oligarchs and other CEOs Putin can bleed. Some of them fell out of the window last year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022–2023)

But this could also be dangerous for Putin. If he kills too many, the others might start leaving the country and then he is truly finished.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Putin will go all-in in this war aside from nukes. Until their people start to revolt or the country is broke. The west needs to prepare for a long support if Russia is to be defeated.
Click to expand...
The people will never revolt. They are too conditioned to accepting the Soviet/Russian way and will also not want to end up in prison. The country is not for saving.
 
Afghanistan, from what I've read, was very ambush focused from afghanis. Ukraine is all open fields and heavy drone usage and all other tech really eliminates that aspect and makes it head on fighting.
 
Looks like Ukraine destroyed the next S-400 battery, this time in Belgorod. Russia really has trouble operating a multi-layered air defense. This kind of drone attack should be prevented by putting a Pantsir or similar system next to the long range S-400.

 
calodo2003 said:
S-400s cost over a billion each?
Click to expand...
At least as export price, yes. India bought 5 batteries for 5.5 billion shortly beforebthe war started.

Each includes a radar, control vehicle, several launch vehicles and a bunch of ammunition. You can be sure that Russia itself has to pay much less than export customers, and also that not everything was destroyed (simply because most of the missiles included in that $1.1b will be in storage because they simply don't fit all into the launchers). Nonetheless it is a very valuable asset for Russia.
 
VorZakone said:
Popular current narrative is that Russia is "losing" or has "lost" the war from a strategic viewpoint.

Personally, I think the situation remains rather dire for Ukraine nevertheless. Putin will continue the war and the Russian military is far from defeated yet. So I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine defeats Russia on the battleground. Not without both countries going absolutely all the way, risking major economic/demographic collapse while losing millions of men.

There is this weird notion on Reddit sometimes of Russia being just on the brink of collapsing. It's just not true. There are, depending on your source, about 200,000 to 400,000 Russian troops still present in Ukraine and they can throw in more if they want. The usual arguments about "logistical problems" and such may be valid but Ukrainians are still getting killed everyday so evidently Russia is arming its troops. If you think there'll be a moment in the short term where the Russians will be without weapons or ammo, I got a bridge to sell you.

With all that being said, we should keep supporting Ukraine. But unless we increase both the pace and amount of aid we deliver, this will remain a grinding attrition war that could last a couple of years more. And Putin will be all to happy to turn this into a frozen conflict and keep Ukraine unstable, scare investors away from Ukraine, and destroy hopes of Ukraine joining EU or NATO.

I hope I'm wrong but sadly it seems Ukraine would need a miracle for this war to end quick, like Putin getting overthrown or dying from natural causes and his successor blaming it all on Putin and withdrawing.
Click to expand...

Or is the status quo what Putin wants?

No major defeats or victories. The war rumbles on and each month the West pours more of their money into Ukrainian aid whilst the West's unity starts to crumble.
 
Russian Troops Cede Ground and Strike Back, Frustrating Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

But one unusually daunting obstacle to Ukrainian troops is a tactic adopted by Russian forces: ceding ground and then striking back.

Rather than holding a line of trenches at all costs in the face of Ukraine’s assault, security experts say, Russian commanders have employed a longstanding military tactic known as “elastic defense.”

To execute the tactic, Russian forces pull back to a second line of positions, encouraging Ukrainian troops to advance, and then strike back when the opposing forces are vulnerable — either while moving across open ground or as they arrive at the recently abandoned Russian positions.
Click to expand...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/03/...c-defense-counteroffensive.html?smid=tw-share
 
utdalltheway said:
Are there any parallels to the Russian/Afghan war?
Russia didn’t really lose that one iirc, just got worn down from the casualty rate and probably more importantly for them, the cost of it.
Different stakes here alright though.

So, how long till Russia goes broke?
Is that what the west wants?
And then what - a power vacuum in Russia? That may not suit the west.
Click to expand...
Aside from America supplying some manpad type munitions, Afghanistan was a very different conflict.

Russia seized all the key assets quickly but then faced a sort of insurgency once they were in place.

The difficulty they then faced was occupation of this territory, which has hundreds of avenues of attack along remote mountain roads, almost purpose built for ambush attacks.

Afghanistan also has a history of various tribal warlords exercising power in a few locations. These warlords have had a history of creating loose alliances, and then changing allegiances if a better offer came along.

I suppose the main similarity would be that Russian propaganda meant few Russians were aware of how bad the occupation was going.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.