Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

Forgive my wording. I do have a genuine point. Londoners bitching about bendy bananas when farmers in my region are being wiped out.

That's a point, fair enough. That's down to the MP actually bringing the issue to parliament though.
 
The real takeaway from the Irish and UK elections - don't be a left-wing junior partner in a coalition with the right.
Haven't heard about the Irish results. Did they get destroyed?
 
Why not? They're hardly 'regularly switching' between Enoch Powell and Tony Benn. They are both Thatcherite parties these days. I say again, the NHS is a 'genuinely socialist' policy, and is about as popular here as Islam in Saudi Arabia.

Where's your evidence that policies that are polled as popular among the British public wouldn't be popular enough in these marginal constituencies to pull in a Labour vote?
The US voted for the New Deal in the 30s, and would still not give up social security to this day. But Obamacare, which is pretty right wing, was decried as communist and is unpopular among the majority. You can't compare things voted for generations ago to what would be voted for now. You can't even compare people voting for Blairite social spending 17 years ago, the situation is so different. You can believe Labour lurching left would win them a majority if you wish, I'm just not sure you could find a political scientist anywhere that agrees.
Maybe, but then Labour and even LibDems have drifted to the centre to get votes. The outliers with a clear identity, eg BNP and Ukip (regardless of tonight) will not be backed in elections.
There's a thing called Duverger's psychological effect, essentially that voters in a FPTP system will avoid voting for minor parties in elections so as not to waste their vote. In PR, that effect is largely eradicated. A vote for a minor party would not only likely contribute to an MP's election, the party you vote for also always has a chance of a place in government. Parties would still aim for the centre, but it would be far less like the current situation of three parties looking to dance on a pinhead.
 
There's a thing called Duverger's psychological effect, essentially that voters in a FPTP system will avoid voting for minor parties in elections so as not to waste their vote. In PR, that effect is largely eradicated. A vote for a minor party would not only likely contribute to an MP's election, the party you vote for also always has a chance of a place in government. Parties would still aim for the centre, but it would be far less like the current situation of three parties looking to dance on a pinhead.

Some constituency elections are very much fought on local issues though. Would love to see any solid research about influence of local issues vs those who will only ever vote for one party.

Oh god, nine alerts, can barely keep up. Need to shower and have to take the cat to the vet at 10am!
 
What would people set the over/under on the number of UKIP seats in the next general election?
 
The US voted for the New Deal in the 30s, and would still not give up social security to this day. But Obamacare, which is pretty right wing, was decried as communist and is unpopular among the majority. You can't compare things voted for generations ago to what would be voted for now. You can't even compare people voting for Blairite social spending 17 years ago, the situation is so different. You can believe Labour lurching left would win them a majority if you wish, I'm just not sure you could find a political scientist anywhere that agrees.

There's a thing called Duverger's psychological effect, essentially that voters in a FPTP system will avoid voting for minor parties in elections so as not to waste their vote. In PR, that effect is largely eradicated. A vote for a minor party would not only likely contribute to an MP's election, the party you vote for also always has a chance of a place in government. Parties would still aim for the centre, but it would be far less like the current situation of three parties looking to dance on a pinhead.

run off voting should also be considered. At least that way people give their second preference and forces a 50% requirement.
 
No one believed in New Labour but the leaders. No one but David Cameron really believes in what he wants the the Conservative party to be. It's not that different trying to bridge two parties differences to trying to bridge the gap between one party's base and their leadership.

Not sure what you are trying to say. I think people bought heavily into new labour and had genuine hope it would improve the country.
 
Not sure what you are trying to say. I think people bought heavily into new labour and had genuine hope it would improve the country.
Voters did but there was always a disconnect between Blairite thinking and what Labour party activists wanted.
 
Is Blair still not a dirty word in the UK?

Well, he's gone from new hope to war criminal in a lot of people's eyes...

Jippy...you better look after your cat mate :)

Aye, we will. We found what looks like a bite on him. Stray we took in five weeks ago, then disappeared and we found him again. He came back a bit knackered and he has already cost us a bomb but we love him. Poor thing hates being in the carry case though:(
 
How does this work, exactly? Sounds at face value like a good system.

I think it's an offence not to vote isn't it? Quite well known. Would be easy to enact. The workers lose tax relief on pension contributions if they don't vote, those in social welfare lose benefits. With postal votes etc...no-one has an excuse not to except apathy or disengagement.
They have a top three vote too from what I remember. Voter turnout is a disgrace in the UK.
 
I think it's an offence not to vote isn't it? Quite well known. Would be easy to enact. The workers lose tax relief on pension contributions if they don't vote, those in social welfare lose benefits. With postal votes etc...no-one has an excuse not to except apathy or disengagement.
They have a top three vote too from what I remember. Voter turnout is a disgrace in the UK.

Ah, I meant more the particulars of how they're "punished" for not voting. You're right that it's a disgrace in the UK, we do need to fix it, would probably be worth looking into something like this. I'm not sure I agree with their sanctions but we do certainly need to do something over here.

We are now talking William Hague, right?

:lol: Yeh, DOTA meant he's craving a porno titled "Blair in the Hague".

(EDIT: I crave this too)
 
I think it's an offence not to vote isn't it? Quite well known. Would be easy to enact. The workers lose tax relief on pension contributions if they don't vote, those in social welfare lose benefits. With postal votes etc...no-one has an excuse not to except apathy or disengagement.
They have a top three vote too from what I remember. Voter turnout is a disgrace in the UK.
if democracy cant motivate, something is going wrong anyway.
 
if democracy cant motivate, something is going wrong anyway.

Well, they are claiming now the turnout was 43% for the euros. I think general elections generally get more in the region of 55-65%. What can you do except legislate- loads of people don't care. My brother is a lab manager doing a Phd at UCL and he has never voted, nor does he have any political interest. He is not an idiot though (overall).
 
Well, he's gone from new hope to war criminal in a lot of people's eyes...



Aye, we will. We found what looks like a bite on him. Stray we took in five weeks ago, then disappeared and we found him again. He came back a bit knackered and he has already cost us a bomb but we love him. Poor thing hates being in the carry case though:(


know all about pets and what they cost mate.....
 
The stray we've taken in we've called Bubble. His nickname is Bad Boy Bubble in honour of your favourite Aussie film.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106341/
BBB is unique amongst unique films. i havent sseen a film that mixes such taboo subjects as rape, incest, and psychological abuse and uplifting mesaages such as love, compassion, and being an individual, and makes such a great film. this film will take you on a rollercoaster of emotions, you will feel uplifted, joyous, and two minutes later disgusted and dirty. while the ending is a bit corny and predictable, the film still leaves you feeling satisfied overall. it is truly hard to convey into words this film, so go see it if you can find a copy, its worth the effort.
Hmm...
 
Maybe one?
See this is why I ask, I saw Paddy Power had the over/under at 0.5 and I was really curious. I get that the UK system is ridiculously discriminatory to the lesser parties in terms of what they should get and I get that UKIP support collapsed between the last Europeans and general, but that was when they were seen as more of a one-issue party. The latest "if there were a general election tomorrow" poll had them at 23%. The Lib Dems got 22% in 2010 and got 57 seats. I know that in all likelihood they won't get 23% (or probably close) in 2015, but only 1 seat? Really? Could someone explain that to me?
 
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See this is why I ask, I saw Paddy Power had the over/under at 1.5 and I was really curious. I get that the UK system is ridiculously discriminatory to the lesser parties in terms of what they should get and I get that UKIP support collapsed between the last Europeans and general, but that was when they were seen as more of a one-issue party. The latest "if there were a general election tomorrow" poll had them at 23%. The Lib Dems got 22% in 2010 and got 57 seats. I know that in all likelihood they won't get 23% (or probably close) in 2015, but only 1 seat? Really? Could someone explain that to me?
The Lib Dems have bases. It took the Green party absolutely ages just to get their first MP, by concentrating their efforts on Brighton pavillion. UKIP can finish third in a lot of places. Second in some. But there's hardly anywhere that they could win.
 
See this is why I ask, I saw Paddy Power had the over/under at 1.5 and I was really curious. I get that the UK system is ridiculously discriminatory to the lesser parties in terms of what they should get and I get that UKIP support collapsed between the last Europeans and general, but that was when they were seen as more of a one-issue party. The latest "if there were a general election tomorrow" poll had them at 23%. The Lib Dems got 22% in 2010 and got 57 seats. I know that in all likelihood they won't get 23% (or probably close) in 2015, but only 1 seat? Really? Could someone explain that to me?

Relative party turnout. People who vote UKIP, realistically, are a hell of a lot more worried about the EU and European elections. They'll have a much higher relative turnout than the other parties (so, maybe >60-70% UKIP voters turned out to vote, vs ~40% overall). In a proper election the numbers of people voting Lab, Con and LD will be much higher. Couple that with people who'll vote UKIP as a protest vote in the EU then return to voting Con or whatever at a proper election.