Alex Salmond and Independence

The cost to the UK will be in the form of transaction fees, which are a few hundred million pounds per year. This sounds like a lot to the average person, but it is basically a rounding error in the grand scheme of things when you compare it against the UK's GDP (£2.4 trillion). Transaction fees really are not worth talking about because it's such a small issue.

Currency union is more expensive in the long run because it's one country supporting two countries that are competing against each other - which will result in higher borrowing costs for the UK.

Besides, it would be a grossly-unfair union due to the proportional size of the two countries' economies - the rUK could basically do whatever it wants and Scotland couldn't do anything about it (if it could, it would be a disproportionate level of control, and the rUK, still one of the largest economies in the world, would never agree to that). And it could hardly be called independence when monetary policy is controlled by a foreign nation.

Salmond is silent on the currency issue because he knows the true proposal, should Scotland vote Yes, is that an independent Scotland would have their own currency. However, if he were to say that before the referendum, it would torpedo the Yes vote. Would Scottish people exchange British pounds for Scottish pounds, not knowing the true value in advance, without a proven economy and fiscal and monetary policies backing it? What would happen to pensions?

Personally I would prefer Scotland to have its own currency in time and have no qualms about voting yes for this reason - but this is the white paper put forward for the referendum and its the uncomfortable (and probably not well chosen) terms on which the debate has to be had. I'm just explaining the attitude of the majority of yes voters toward the issue.

It would be fair to say a basic lack of trust means its a non-issue for a good chunk of voters. Of course the average voter is not an economic expert and as the facts are being lost a fog of propaganda from both sides, the swing in favour of yes in recent weeks (despite Salmond's drubbing over the currency) suggests undecided voters have adopted the attitude that it can't be deciphered - "its not the currency but whose pockets it goes to" becomes the focus.

The reason the currency union issue is only being seen this way is due to the way the Better Together campaign has handled itself over the past two years. If it had been less aggressive and hyperbolic this issue would probably kill independence dead, but because of their conduct it isn't being seen as an isolated policy of the main parties. Instead its viewed in the context of an ongoing attempt to avoid the disastrous impacts of independence for the British establishment. The largest economic cost for the rest of the UK to consider when we vote yes is the one that Westminster is truly terrified of - the £20billion+ new base to keep a nuclear deterrent in Britain. The cost of moving from Faslane may reach a point where they would have to consider the future of Britain's nuclear weapons program altogether.
 
Have you ever been held? I mean really held, with tenderness.

My allegiance is to the United Kingdom and nobody else, if they want out then they are out, they don't get to have the benefits of leaving and none of the downsides giving us additional responsibilities in the process.

That's a no guys

He needs to be held underwater for about three minutes.

This exchange makes me laugh to this day.
 
The largest economic cost for the rest of the UK to consider when we vote yes is the one that Westminster is truly terrified of - the £20billion+ new base to keep a nuclear deterrent in Britain. The cost of moving from Faslane may reach a point where they would have to consider the future of Britain's nuclear weapons program altogether.
Again a tiny amount in the grand scheme of the rUK and UK's GDP, and that £20b would be spread out over many years because you can't build nuclear facilities in a few months (you can't decommission it in a few months, either). Moving or decommissioning Trident could also have implications on an independent Scotland's Nato membership.

A lot of the debate has been petty and aggressive, but on both sides. Theresa May's threat to remove British passports and Salmond's continuous threats to walk away from debt spring to mind. The debate has been touchy but this is because independence is touchy.

Remember, the No campaign can afford to be more negative because the burden of proof is on those who wish to challenge the status quo.
 
I don't think its fair to disregard it as insignificant. The costs involved along with the costs of upgrading the weapons would be enough to trigger a debate over the need to maintain trident in Britain and the Ministry of Defence will understandbly avoid this at all costs.

Remember, the No campaign can afford to be more negative because the burden of proof is on those who wish to challenge the status quo.

That's what they are banking on. We will see if they could afford to approach the issue this way in September. It's already cost them hugely, they could have this wrapped up by now but instead the polls are tightening. It was clear from the get go that they had underestimated the disconnection between Scotland and Westminster and the longer the campaign goes on, the more obvious this becomes to voters and the more damaging that strategy gets.

There are two huge voids in these campaigns. Better Together have failed to make a case that the UK will be more desirable to Scottish voters than it is today. Have they forgotten that these are the same voters that turned against Labour and the Liberals in favour of the SNP in 2011? Now with far more anger toward Westminster after 4 years of austerity under a Tory/Lib Dem co-alition and an unpopular leader of the opposition. The polls predicted an SNP win that day but no-one foresaw the landslide they achieved - heck I wouldn't have voted for them if I believed they'd get a majority. Don't be surprised if the Yes Vote outperforms the polling figures too. Who is more likely to turn out and vote - angry people hopeful of change, or discontent people who are scared of it?
 
I don't think its fair to disregard it as insignificant. The costs involved along with the costs of upgrading the weapons would be enough to trigger a debate over the need to maintain trident in Britain and the Ministry of Defence will understandbly avoid this at all costs.

There is already a fair bit of debate on Trident, though. It's more of a political problem than a financial one, because a nuclear sub is way more efficient than any sort of military force, and a strong nuclear deterrent is even more important than ever with a certain nuclear nation recently annexing part of its neighbour. Because of Nato, it's not a decision that even the UK can make by itself - an independent Scotland certainly can't just decide against it if the US and France don't agree (at least not without consequences).

That's what they are banking on. We will see if they could afford to approach the issue this way in September. It's already cost them hugely, they could have this wrapped up by now but instead the polls are tightening. It was clear from the get go that they had underestimated the disconnection between Scotland and Westminster and the longer the campaign goes on, the more obvious this becomes to voters and the more damaging that strategy gets.

They don't really have to "bank" on the strategy - it's a natural consequence. Voting "No" keeps Scotland in the UK - which everyone in Scotland is familiar with, because they are in the UK already. Technically, all they really have to do is rebut the Yes campaign.

Besides, No still has a commanding lead in the polls. By the latest YouGov polls, No would win even if every single undecided vote went to Yes.

There are two huge voids in these campaigns. Better Together have failed to make a case that the UK will be more desirable to Scottish voters than it is today. Have they forgotten that these are the same voters that turned against Labour and the Liberals in favour of the SNP in 2011? Now with far more anger toward Westminster after 4 years of austerity under a Tory/Lib Dem co-alition and an unpopular leader of the opposition. The polls predicted an SNP win that day but no-one foresaw the landslide they achieved - heck I wouldn't have voted for them if I believed they'd get a majority. Don't be surprised if the Yes Vote outperforms the polling figures too. Who is more likely to turn out and vote - angry people hopeful of change, or discontent people who are scared of it?

Most opinion polls with a good methodology are roughly right. One or two polls being wrong doesn't change that.

Regarding the bold bit - you can take a look at poll methodologies. YouGov, for example, weights their polls to those who say they are likely to vote to get more accurate results. In addition to that, this referendum is significantly more important than any election (starting a new country is a very big deal, as some people have hopefully realised by now), and the campaigning has gone on longer than any election, so I daresay the level of consciousness is higher and more passionate - a late swing of votes is less likely (unless Darling or Salmond utterly mess the next debate up).
 
Besides, No still has a commanding lead in the polls. By the latest YouGov polls, No would win even if every single undecided vote went to Yes.

Of course no is likely, it seemed almost inevitable a month ago. Can you link me to the full results of these polls with undecided included?

Don't disagree with you for a second about the polls or question their methodology but there has been a historic pattern of unpredictablity and establishment parties underperforming in Scottish elections, with the Greens, Scottish Socialists and independents gaining seats that polls suggested were unwinnable. And I don't expect a dramatic late swing but it would be foolish to rule it out.

Regarding the bold bit - you can take a look at poll methodologies. YouGov, for example, weights their polls to those who say they are likely to vote to get more accurate results. In addition to that, this referendum is significantly more important than any election (starting a new country is a very big deal, as some people have hopefully realised by now), and the campaigning has gone on longer than any election, so I daresay the level of consciousness is higher and more passionate - a late swing of votes is less likely (unless Darling or Salmond utterly mess the next debate up).

You couldn't be more right about this - the apathy has faded away from both sides but the longer this debate has gone the bigger the yes vote has gotten. The sheer length of the campaign, along with the lies trotted out from key members of each and every establishment party on a regular basis - claims about how we will face an increased terrorist threat, a lack of organ donations, a VAT on food, RBS moving to London - all while actively pressing for the European isolation of an independent Scotland. As you say, more and more are realising how important this is for Scotland and this realisation has been helped along by the sheer transparency of the attacks from the political class.
 
I can answer 'the point', it would obviously be temporary as a start. Interested in the 'very costly' though, I can see how it could be costly, but does it have to be, and for how long? Genuine question, I'm no expert.

Things such as not having the UK underwriting debt and borrowing, and losing a AAA credit rating make borrowing more expensive. High dependence on oil revenue which is volatile, meaning national income and govt revenue can fluctuate significantly create less certainty and increased risk to lenders, add in existing forecasts of declining north sea oil revenue, and non EU membership at least in the short term, I think it could be costly.

Personally I don't really care which way the vote goes, if the people want independence I'm happy for them to have it. I would oppose an independent scotland getting a free ride in any way from the UK though. Scotland entered a union several centuries ago, I'm a little puzzled at the timing of the charge for independence bearing in mind the broader economic picture.
 
Anybody watching this debate? I don't have a hugely strong opinion on the independence but Salmond is a complete ass.
 
Anybody watching this debate? I don't have a hugely strong opinion on the independence but Salmond is a complete ass.

He's a joke, I personally have no problem with whatever Scotland choose to do, they're welcome to stay and good luck to them if they decide to go. But if I was a resident I'd want a condition on the yes vote that makes sure he has no place making decisions.
 
Salmond is only popular with SNP voters, not across Yes voters. Its widely agreed across the political spectrum that he crushed Darling tonight though. Guardian/ICM poll at 71% to Salmond, even the BBC's John Curtice struggles to spin it in favour of Darling.
 
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Yeah, whatever your views Salmond comfortably won tonight. He was kind of half-arsed last night, but realised he had to up his game in this one.
 
Ah its just so perfect. My mums an undecided Labour voter, disgusted that they've aligned themselves with the Conservatives for this campaign - hopefully this gets the ball over the line :lol:
 
What a silly advert.

I think Salmond 'won' the debate but I think that's more because of how poor Darling is. Despite that, I didn't hear many answers for Darling's questions and the incessant interruption was annoying.

What do you two think will be the outcome?
 
What a silly advert.

I think Salmond 'won' the debate but I think that's more because of how poor Darling is. Despite that, I didn't hear many answers for Darling's questions and the incessant interruption was annoying.

What do you two think will be the outcome?

I'm 99% certain its going to be a no but it can't be said its decided. A six point lead is not insurmountable but the Yes camp probably need a miracle or an incredible ground game for the last push. This is from a Daily Mail funded poll as reported by a pro-unionist newspaper today.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...endence-poll-yes-up-after-tv-debate-1-3524657

Of the 1,001 Scottish residents over 16 who were surveyed, 47.6 per cent said they were planning to vote No on September 18 - down from 50.3 per cent three weeks ago, while support for independence rose from 37.2 per cent to 41.6 per cent.

The number of Scots still undecided fell from 12.5 per cent to 10.8 per cent. When those who are undecided are excluded from the research, support for No is at 53 per cent, with Yes on 47 per cent.
 
There's been a definite swing again in the past couple of weeks, even without looking at polls. The final push, if you want to call it that, seems to be having a very positive effect.
 
Is this really any more than the usual coming together of polls before an election?

I would have thought that this was always likely to happen in the last couple of weeks. The polls and bookies still unanimously say there's going to be a no vote... my only worry would be if turnout if significantly different from predicted.
 
Is this really any more than the usual coming together of polls before an election?

I would have thought that this was always likely to happen in the last couple of weeks. The polls and bookies still unanimously say there's going to be a no vote... my only worry would be if turnout if significantly different from predicted.

The odds have certainly come down on a Yes vote a bit though.
 
Its kind of mad that so little attention is being paid to this vote over here in little old Ireland. If its a yes vote that would be huge. You wouldn't even know this vote was coming up in the Irish media.
 
Nigel Farrage has come out and being calling Salmond a "communist", claiming over 50% of Scots claim benefits of some kind, and that Salmond is inciting the excessive nationalism which is apparently the reason Farrage is hated up here.

Keep it up Nigel, we can see what you're doing...
 
Nigel Farrage has come out and being calling Salmond a "communist", claiming over 50% of Scots claim benefits of some kind, and that Salmond is inciting the excessive nationalism which is apparently the reason Farrage is hated up here.

Keep it up Nigel, we can see what you're doing...

:lol:
 
Its kind of mad that so little attention is being paid to this vote over here in little old Ireland. If its a yes vote that would be huge. You wouldn't even know this vote was coming up in the Irish media.
In truth mate, there's not much mention of it in England either.
 
Apart from an article in every newspaper every day.
Don't read newspapers. However, its barely mentioned on the news channels or the BBC news website.
Obviously the closer it gets to the vote the more coverage it will get, but at the moment you wouldn't know anything was going on.
 
Not sure it really matters for people in England and what will remain of Britain, but makes me sad to think we could no longer be united with Scotland, you think about all Scottish people who have fought wars for Britain/died for Britain/competed for Britain on the world stage (Olympics etc) and its just sad :(

I think what's even sadder is a large part of Scots who will be voting 'yes' will only be voting yes due to their hatered of England, more so than what's really best for them and for Scotland as a whole.

I think they could come to regret it if Salmond gets what he wants.
 
Well, I guess you could think about all the Scottish people who died fighting for independence against the English if that would make you feel any better.
 
That's ancient history, there's no one alive from those days, but there are Scots around now who have lost limbs who have fought in WW2/Falklands/Gulf/Alfganistan and other places for British interests - Scottish families with missing dads/sons/daughters, If Scotland are divided from a country their loved ones fought and died for, what comfort is that?

I say to Scottish people voting, rather than watching American make-believe bullshit (Braveheart) featuring a Australian William Wallace, watch and look into things that's real and matter today.
 
I imagine the comfort is that when those people went to war, they weren't thinking of Britain, or the King/Queen, they were thinking of their loved ones. I'd say that's what they were fighting for.