Predict the outcome of every Euro 2016 game and win £50m

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Vote Leave launches unprecedented competition - 50million.uk

Predict the European Championships and win £50 million - the amount we send to the EU every single day


Vote Leave has today launched 50million.uk, a competition to win £50 million - the amount of money we hand over to the EU every single day.

The competition is free to enter and involves the public using their skill and judgement to predict who they think will win each game of the 2016 European Football Championships this summer.

If they predict the outcome of each game correctly, the line up at the knockout stage, and all the games including the final then they will win £50 million. If no one predicts all the results then there is a guaranteed prize of £50,000 for the person who gets the most consecutive games correct from the first game of the tournament.

The competition is open to any member of the public who is over the age of 18 and is registered to vote in the EU referendum. How someone votes in the referendum or whether they even vote is irrelevant to whether they can enter and win.

Vote Leave is funding the £50 million prize via an insurance policy taken out with underwriters at Lloyds. The competition is based on a similar competition run by Warren Buffett based on March Madness basketball in the US.

Vote Leave’s Campaign Director, Dominic Cummings, said:

‘Every day we spend at least £50 million on the EU - that’s £350 million a week which is enough to build an NHS hospital. We want as many people as possible to know that we are sending life changing sums to the EU every single day so we’re giving them a chance to win it. It’s a bigger prize than any one person has ever won on the national lottery.

‘This is the chance of a lifetime - just imagine what you could do with the £50 million we send to the EU every single day. We want everyone to have the chance to win the sort of money most people can only dream of, unless they are a banker or a Euro MP.

‘Too many people, particularly younger voters, don’t engage in politics and do not plan to vote in the referendum. For years there’s been a lot of talk about this problem but it’s got worse. 50million.uk is an attempt to engage with large numbers of people who normally ignore politics. We’ll be able to speak to them about the issues, give them some facts, and answer their questions.

‘We’re big underdogs in this campaign. The Government sets the rules. We don’t get millions from the big investment banks and we can’t spend millions of taxpayers’ money like the IN campaign. We have to innovate. If you want to win the amount of money that British taxpayers spend on the EU every single day, take a shot at our competition and spread the word to family and friends. After we Vote Leave and take back control, we’ll be able to spend the money we now waste on the EU on our priorities like the NHS.’

ENDS


In 2014, the UK’s gross contributions to the EU budget were £19,107 million, or £52 million every day (ONS, 30 October 2015, tab 9.9, link).
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It's obviously unlikely anyone will do it, but the fact you have to predict the outcome, rather than the scoreline, makes it worth a pop.
Love the use of gross figures by the way...(Assume they mean LLoyd's of London, not Lloyds Banking Group, but accuracy is seemingly not a prerequisite on either side of the debate).
 
That's actually quite clever.
 
The small print will probably show what comes back the other way and the winner will have to pay the net income figure to the organisers.
 
Is that predicting wins/losses/draws? Or the actual scoreline... the first is barely possible, the later is completely impossible.
 
Someone will get it. Far easier than that williamhill's final Premiership table.

I dunno, correctly guessing the outcome of 52 (if my maths is right) games? I doubt anyone will do it... probably why they're prepared to front up £50mil
 
They mean line up of teams at the knockout stage, can't be about team line ups, that would be insane and waste.

And I reckon if it's free, you can gather as many as possible of your pals and add multiple (dozens, hundreds?) of different outcomes. Share the winnings later. :cool:

Is it free, btw?
 
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They mean line up of teams at the knockout stage, can't be about team line ups, that would be insane and waste.

And I reckon if it's free, you can gather as many as possible of your pals and add multiple (dozens, hundreds?) of different outcomes. Share the winnings later. :cool:

Is it free, btw?
Yeah it's free. The 'line-up of the knock-out stages' line is superfluous- you will do that if you get every result right.
 
Jeez, even if 1000 people divide it equally, it's still 50,000. 10,000 and it's 5,000. :o

Of course, how one would coordinate all those people, that would be a nightmare. And would the winner really abide with the gentlemen agreement? :)


Cafe members should try it.
 
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Another marketing stunt. No chance at all that anyone would ever get it.

3^51 = 2 153 693 963 075 557 766 310 747 outcomes

Good fecking luck.
 
Another marketing stunt. No chance at all that anyone would ever get it.

3^51 = 2 153 693 963 075 557 766 310 747 outcomes

Good fecking luck.

Wow thats bad - think I'll stick to the lotto. I feel like I have a good chance now.
 
Is that predicting wins/losses/draws? Or the actual scoreline... the first is barely possible, the later is completely impossible.
ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS PREDICT WHO WINS EACH GAME.
YOU DON’T EVEN HAVE TO GUESS THE SCORES!
IF NO ONE MANAGES IT THEN CLOSEST ENTRY WINS £50,000!
 
Another marketing stunt. No chance at all that anyone would ever get it.

3^51 = 2 153 693 963 075 557 766 310 747 outcomes

Good fecking luck.

Not all outcomes are equal possibility though. You help your chances by each time you select an outcome like France beating Albania which is more like 85% probability than standard 33%. I'd probably expect this to be in the range of 1 to a few billion.
 
I think this could actually be a lot easier than usual.

We all know that

The final will be Germany vs Spain
Germany will beat France in the semi final
England will lost to Portugal in the Quarter Final.
Spain will therefore beat Portugal in the second semi final.

So just work your way back from there! hehe
 
Not all outcomes are equal possibility though. You help your chances by each time you select an outcome like France beating Albania which is more like 85% probability than standard 33%. I'd probably expect this to be in the range of 1 to a few billion.

Last time someone tried to apply this theory:

Possible outcomes ≠ Realistic outcomes, of course.

We probably know 6 of the top 7, and know that Liverpool/Tottenham will not win the league. So we also know the top 4, or at least have a good idea.
There are probably 5 teams that look likely to go down - IMO Norwich, Bournemouth, Leicester, Watford and Sunderland.

This narrows it down hugely, and of course the middle section is going to be tough. But I think if you have the time/knowledge you can make a real educated guess.
 
So, how much would you win, if you'd bet, say 1€, at your preferred betting company, just for the group stage games?
 
It's basically a 51 fold accumulator, I've never been able to predict even a 10 fold correctly...
 
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Another marketing stunt. No chance at all that anyone would ever get it.

3^51 = 2 153 693 963 075 557 766 310 747 outcomes

Good fecking luck.
There's more than 51 games played, no?

There's 8 groups, 3 matchdays with 2 games on each, that's already 48 games. So then round of 16 (8), quarter finals (4), semi finals (2) and final (1), for a total of 63 games.

3^63 = 1.14x10^30

Edit: scrap that, this would be true for the world cup. Guess the new format for euros got me confused.
 
There are 52 games. 6 groups, mate.

6 x first two + 4 x best third placed teams for 1/8 finals.

51. No such thing as bronse final.
 
The small print will probably show what comes back the other way and the winner will have to pay the net income figure to the organisers.
This is why I'm not going to take part:smirk:
 
Last time someone tried to apply this theory:
Yep of course it doesn't work like that but even then he was correct about the usual teams being in top 6 bar Leicester swapping their expected position with Chelsra basically. Major competition tend to have these Leicesters too - Greece in 2004, France in 2006 was also a big surprise, Russia in 2008, Ghana in 2010, Italy were surprise in 2012 and Costa Rica last time.
 
So as the real amount is £23 million a day, if you win it you will only get £23 million, another lie from Brexit.

If the UK actually leave the EU and the UK becomes bankrupt because of it, will Leave still pay out ?
:lol:Should've known you'd spot this. Dunno if @Nick 0208 Ldn ventures into this forum much!