Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

Nick 0208 Ldn said:
It has highly doubtful whether such change would have occurred without the referendum, and i think many will consider a more flexible policy to be welcome. Perhaps you can explain to me why it should not be classified as another indirect consequence of the vote?
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What change?

All Osborne has said is that he will be 'tough on the deficit' but now thanks to the 'significant negative shock for the British economy' we now have to be 'realistic about achieving a surplus'.

He hasn't abandoned his policy, or announced a change of tact, he's just dialling back expectations of what can be achieved thanks to Brexit.

In fact, what he's actually said is that under his chancellorship there will be more austerity.
 
rotherham_red said:
As someone with a disability, I'll believe it when I see it... All the economic predictions were the exact opposite and stated that Brexit would bring about an extension of austerity, rather than a reprieve.
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This is fundamentally just a statement of reality e.g. I'm gonna have to borrow money cos the economy will be weaker as a result of Brexit, so I'm abandoning my target to get borrowing down to £0 by 2020.

I wouldn't read anything more into it than that. The next Prime Minister might spend more cash on infrastructure to try and keep the economy afloat. I can't see any kind of wholesale change in policy.

The reality is, given our economy will shrink, it's inevitable austerity will go on far beyond 2020 now. Before 2020 looked like it'd be the end of it. Whatever end was in sight before is in the distant future thanks to Brexit.
 
NinjaFletch said:
What change?

All Osborne has said is that he will be 'tough on the deficit' but now thanks to the 'significant negative shock for the British economy' we now have to be 'realistic about achieving a surplus'.

He hasn't abandoned his policy, or announced a change of tact, he's just dialling back expectations of what can be achieved thanks to Brexit.

In fact, what he's actually said is that under his chancellorship there will be more austerity.
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This is the thing with his plan; if its wasn't for the Brexit then he would have come up with another excuse. There was never an end target or reason for his actions - it's always been about cutting back on public funding and helping out his backers/funders. He's probably known that from the start when he was feeding the public his "balancing the books and live within our means" rubbish. He hoped that he could either fudge the numbers so in a few years time he could wriggle out of difficult questions regarding his record, and if that didn't happen then he would look for another excuse to be why he hasn't reached his target. Every year he always has a reason; uncertainty in the market, poor weather, weak Yen or dollar. The same things that every other chancellor has to deal with, yet he has constantly failed. Luckily for him, the Brexit gives him a premature excuse.
 
NinjaFletch said:
What change?

All Osborne has said is that he will be 'tough on the deficit' but now thanks to the 'significant negative shock for the British economy' we now have to be 'realistic about achieving a surplus'.

He hasn't abandoned his policy, or announced a change of tact, he's just dialling back expectations of what can be achieved thanks to Brexit.

In fact, what he's actually said is that under his chancellorship there will be more austerity.
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You expect his chancellorship to be long for this Earth? We are doing away with an impediment to investment, namely Osborne himself.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
This is the thing with his plan; if its wasn't for the Brexit then he would have come up with another excuse. There was never an end target or reason for his actions - it's always been about cutting back on public funding and helping out his backers/funders. He's probably known that from the start when he was feeding the public his "balancing the books and live within our means" rubbish. He hoped that he could either fudge the numbers so in a few years time he could wriggle out of difficult questions regarding his record, and if that didn't happen then he would look for another excuse to be why he hasn't reached his target. Every year he always has a reason; uncertainty in the market, poor weather, weak Yen or dollar. The same things that every other chancellor has to deal with, yet he has constantly failed. Luckily for him, the Brexit gives him a premature excuse.
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Doubtful.

I think Osborne's plan was to get into a surplus and then spend it all on a massive tax cut ahead of the 2020 election. He's not stupid. He recognises austerity is unpopular, and that a big tax cut would've been popular, probably popular enough to win an increased majority. Yes, he has had difficulty meeting the targets but if you look at the size of the deficit, its not that far behind where his target says it should be. He probably would've been able to do some serious pre-election giveaways but for Brexit. That's over now.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Then why did you post it and try and pass it off as a 'post-Brexit positive' if you think its irrelevant?
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It is relevant in what it portends, when a cornerstone of that stubborn man's vision begins to crumble. For some time there have been rumours of discontent within the Cabinet surrounding his programme of cuts/investment.
 
rotherham_red said:
As someone with a disability, I'll believe it when I see it... All the economic predictions were the exact opposite and stated that Brexit would bring about an extension of austerity, rather than a reprieve.
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He's not saying he's abandoning any cuts, just that even with those cuts, he doesn't think he can get to a surplus. I would imagine the tory party will double down on cuts to disability and out-of-work benefits in the next few years.

EDIT: Didn't realise I wasn't on the last page, so this has been done already...
 
Quite a few council by-elections tonight showing very promising results for the Lib Dems.
 
So sounds like May's debut PMQs was a bit scary.
 
Watching it now, I'm unsure what to make of May. Sometimes she regresses into the typical Cameron mudslinging and pointless comments to direct people away from what matters, but the whole thing did feel a lot more civil at certain points. Corbyn's got a really poor questioning style though.
 
I thought she pretty much flattened him apart from some cheap moralising from him he had no solutions.
 
My Twitter timeline was basically just people rocking back and forth saying "oh god, it's Thatcher again".
 
In some lighter news, anyone seen the stuff about Steven Woolfe? UKIP are fecked.:lol:
 
Cheesy said:
In some lighter news, anyone seen the stuff about Steven Woolfe? UKIP are fecked.:lol:
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Now been excluded and 3 NEC members have resigned over it. How they can complain when he allowed his membership to lapse, put his nomination papers in late AND failed to disclose a drink driving conviction, I have no idea.

UKIP collapsing in on itself would at least be one positive political development this year, here's hoping.
 
The suspension of Suzanne Evans (I think that's her name - the woman who wrote their manifesto for the last GE) was really weird too.

She's the one I would've been most worried about.
 
Ubik said:
Now been excluded and 3 NEC members have resigned over it. How they can complain when he allowed his membership to lapse, put his nomination papers in late AND failed to disclose a drink driving conviction, I have no idea.

UKIP collapsing in on itself would at least be one positive political development this year, here's hoping.
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Is it positive, especially in the short term? It just means there's no splitting the vote on the right, and all committed leavers are forced to vote Tory. While the centre-left will have 3/4 options depending on where you are: Lib Dems, Corbyn's Labour, Smith's Labour, and maybe SNP/Greens. Leavers are still in the majority, or at least plurality. It's going to be the biggest rout ever.
 
berbatrick said:
Is it positive, especially in the short term? It just means there's no splitting the vote on the right, and all committed leavers are forced to vote Tory. While the centre-left will have 3/4 options depending on where you are: Lib Dems, Corbyn's Labour, Smith's Labour, and maybe SNP/Greens. Leavers are still in the majority, or at least plurality. It's going to be the biggest rout ever.
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The movement from UKIP back to the Tories has already been happening since the referendum. I know people have been blaming the growing gap between Labour and the Tories on the rebellion, but if you actually look at the trends it becomes clearer:




Labour have been trending on the same slope downwards for months, and the Tory uptick since the referendum has come at the expense of UKIP support. But there looks to have been very little movement from UKIP back to Labour. So the nightmare scenario is rather that the Tories bring back all their lost support, but UKIP survive as a northern anti-immigration party severely eroding Labour's base of support.
 
Ubik said:
The movement from UKIP back to the Tories has already been happening since the referendum. I know people have been blaming the growing gap between Labour and the Tories on the rebellion, but if you actually look at the trends it becomes clearer:




Labour have been trending on the same slope downwards for months, and the Tory uptick since the referendum has come at the expense of UKIP support. But there looks to have been very little movement from UKIP back to Labour. So the nightmare scenario is rather that the Tories bring back all their lost support, but UKIP survive as a northern anti-immigration party severely eroding Labour's base of support.
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Fair enough though I would think that you need a few more polls/more time to say if definitely.
 
Ubik said:
Now been excluded and 3 NEC members have resigned over it. How they can complain when he allowed his membership to lapse, put his nomination papers in late AND failed to disclose a drink driving conviction, I have no idea.

UKIP collapsing in on itself would at least be one positive political development this year, here's hoping.
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The basic argument seems to be he's the only one capable of leading the party at all - it seems silly though when he's fecked himself over with errors that were of his own doing.

It's funny, because they were poised in a great position to further dent Labour in the north, and could've held Tory support by pressuring them on EU negotiations. But Farage's ego has always dominated the party and as a result any potentially capable leaders like Evans have been quashed. The problem with a small party becoming so big so quickly is becoming evident: they have a much wider voter base than their narrow, small number of public figures can handle.

DiseaseOfTheAge said:
The suspension of Suzanne Evans (I think that's her name - the woman who wrote their manifesto for the last GE) was really weird too.

She's the one I would've been most worried about.
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It was pretty much Farage's ego from what I remember, trying to ruin anyone within the party who didn't follow every last word he said. Might be coming back to bite him.
 
So according to Theresa May the BMA are 'playing politics' by opposing a contract intended to introduce 'the 7 day NHS', a political slogan which has no basis in fact, and, if one were being cynical, is purely designed to push NHS services to breaking point so that further privatisation can be presented as the solution.
 
If the best counter-argument you can muster is that your opponent is 'playing politics' you are probably in the wrong (see Tim Cook).
 
Untied said:
So according to Theresa May the BMA are 'playing politics' by opposing a contract intended to introduce 'the 7 day NHS', a political slogan which has no basis in fact, and, if one were being cynical, is purely designed to push NHS services to breaking point so that further privatisation can be presented as the solution.
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Actually the BMA leadership endorsed the deal didn't they - put it to the m,embers who rejected it
As far as I know (as of yesterday evening) they had refused to say which part they were objecting to now - this making negotiations more difficult.
Its not a good situation of course but one thing that looks certain is that with the new PM coming out against the strikes there wont be any backing down from the government side (though given her past record her solution probably wont be to bring in foreign doctors who will sign the contract)
It will get messy - but as to the rights / wrongs and details it will get lost in the spin and no doubt all be rolled into a larger "evil tories" (lead by thatcher mk2) vs trotsyky/momentum unionists narrative (lead by comrade clusterfek)
 
sun_tzu said:
Actually the BMA leadership endorsed the deal didn't they - put it to the m,embers who rejected it
As far as I know (as of yesterday evening) they had refused to say which part they were objecting to now - this making negotiations more difficult.
Its not a good situation of course but one thing that looks certain is that with the new PM coming out against the strikes there wont be any backing down from the government side (though given her past record her solution probably wont be to bring in foreign doctors who will sign the contract)
It will get messy - but as to the rights / wrongs and details it will get lost in the spin and no doubt all be rolled into a larger "evil tories" (lead by thatcher mk2) vs trotsyky/momentum unionists narrative (lead by comrade clusterfek)
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Well yes, but they are a democratic organisation: it was rejected by members, so the then committee chair resigned, and the current committee has voted in favour of the planned five day strikes.

Yes. May's honeymoon period isn't going to last very long, lets put it that way.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37251361

What do we think of the Greens and their co-leaders concept?
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I get the feeling Lucas will quickly end up appearing as the de facto sole leader to most people, mainly because she's far and away their best politician. Remains to be seen how it'll work practically, potential for tension is pretty large even for a small party.
 
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