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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Oddly enough Hamburg is Europe's 3rd largest port

If I'm not mistaken germans are more "fluvial oriented", when France's maritime industry is naturally huge. The numbers are weird but I just read that the French Maritime industry weight +60bn€ compared to the 22.2bn£ of the Uk.
 
If I'm not mistaken germans are more "fluvial oriented", when France's maritime industry is naturally huge. The numbers are weird but I just read that the French Maritime industry weight +60bn€ compared to the 22.2bn£ of the Uk.

Germany use Rotterdam and Antwerp (the two biggest ports in Europe) as their ports as well as Hamburg and Bremen - a lot of traffic up the Rhein/Meuse and canals to/from Antwerp and Rotterdam as well as the fast cargo rail link Betuweroute between Rotterdam and Germany which I believe is completed or nearing completion.
A lot of shipments to/from France are trans-shipped in Antwerp as it is now a major hub like Rotterdam.
The Uk no longer rule the waves.

I have spent the last 30 years of my life importing and exporting from Europe
 
According to WTO chief the WTO deal will cost the UK £9B a year. The UK will have to renegotiate trade deals with all 161 WTO countries some of whom are EU members and other historical British allies like lets say Argentina and Russia. That would take time
Well I'm sure we've started negotiating already, so nothing to worry about there.
 
Germany use Rotterdam and Antwerp (the two biggest ports in Europe) as their ports as well as Hamburg and Bremen - a lot of traffic up the Rhein/Meuse and canals to/from Antwerp and Rotterdam as well as the fast cargo rail link Betuweroute between Rotterdam and Germany which I believe is completed or nearing completion.
A lot of shipments to/from France are trans-shipped in Antwerp as it is now a major hub like Rotterdam.
The Uk no longer rule the waves.

I have spent the last 30 years of my life importing and exporting from Europe

Yeah, that's why the comment is weird.
 
Well I'm sure we've started negotiating already, so nothing to worry about there.

You haven't done a trade deal in the past 4 decades. You've quickly assembled a team of people who still understaffed, whom they had never worked with one another and whose lead by brilliant people like erm, Boris to work on concurrent deals with the EU, WTO and a series of countries for long deals which often take nearly a decade to complete. These groups will be reluctant to work with you until you've sorted your issues with the EU and they know exactly what you can or cannot offer. They are in no hurry. They got trade deals already in place and would rather work on a deal with the EU which is a much bigger market then with you.

Jeez your foreign secretary didn't even knew that Turkey can't sign trade deals without the EU being involved in it. Turkey is in the customs union
 
Well I'm sure we've started negotiating already, so nothing to worry about there.

Your posts are a fine example of Brexiters' firmly head in the sand approach.

It's exactly because of such attitudes that the referendum should never have taken place.
 
It has little to do with friendship.

The countries of Europe are friendly to their own interests. They won't damage them to spite the British.

Those on your side of the fence have been wrong about everything so far. They'll be wrong about this as well.

Eventually a trade deal will emerge which will save Europe's blushes, but which both sides can live with.

Its highly ironic to expect countries to be pragmatic and put the economic benefits first when the UK itself is not being so.Especially when you consider that there's a substantial number of EU countries barely get any business from the UK itself. All governments need to take in account a certain degree to cheap populism. Just as May is bending over backwards, in total disregard to the economy, to appease some uneducated leaver who blame everything over the EU, other PMs will be expected to act tough against a nation whose limiting their freedom of movement and had labelled their people as persona non grata (if not even crooks).



That's it their own interest which vary from one country to another and all armed with a VETO. Germany would probably be happy with a trade deal and the UK contributing to the EU budget. The Eastern European countries do not care about that and they want freedom of movement. Spain wants shared sovereignty with Gibaltar and probably a way to get rid/tax more the hordes of ancient expats living off their NHS. Some are building their own financial centre and would love seeing the UK losing its financial passport so that some of these companies will move there.

The EU is great to sign simple trade deals like the one with Iceland. However it had struggled to sign more complex trade deals and this is one of the most complex at all. If these countries had made a stand with the US, an economy which is far richer and bigger then the UK and which unlike the UK it had never turned its back to Europe, then why should they work differently with you?


I am sure that they will offer a trade deal and they will do that to save Europe's blushes and not make themselves look like cnuts in front of the world fora. With that deal be acceptable? I much doubt it.



The more time that passes, the more I am confident that hard Brexit is not a choice for the UK to make
 
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Just read this and looked up 2 countries - Denmark and Holland. Well that's 2 of our friends in the EU.

Denmark -

Denmark has been one of the staunchest supporters of the UK’s demand for renegotiation of the British terms of membership. The current Danish government which was elected in June 2015 has been supportive of the substance of the British demands and, in a more fundamental sense, the UK’s basic approach strikes a chord with the Danish government. The reason for this has historical roots as expressed by the Danish foreign minister, Kristian Jensen, in the Folketing on 29 March 2016:

Denmark and the UK have a close historical relationship, … we entered the EU at the same time… we have been accompanying each other and we have had joint priorities on the way in the struggle to ensure that the EU was … efficiently managed … with a focus on competitivity [and] job creation, and we often see eye to eye….from a Danish point of view an EU without the UK will be a different EU, a weaker EU…without the same cultural plurality… and …political impact.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/...ark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/


Holland -

The words: "Don't leave me this way," in English, and the Union Jack splashed across the front page of Wednesday's
edition of the best-selling daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad reflect the general view of the Dutch establishment about a possible Brexit.

The Dutch currently hold the presidency of the EU, but it is not just the prospect of an unprecedented crisis happening on their watch that is causing jitters in the Netherlands.

Dutch politicians, especially on the right, regard Britain as a bulwark against the more protectionist tendencies of some of the bigger EU states.

As one of the grand old men of Dutch politics, the former leader of the centre right VVD party and former EU Commissioner Frits Bolkestein told me: "Holland and Britain look at the seas.

"We are maritime people and believe in trade with other parts of the world.

"Continental powers, like France and Germany, very important members of the EU, think differently."

So, what if Britain left the EU?

"The Dutch would feel they've lost an important ally in the balance of powers within the European Union," he said.

"Our message is, 'Hang in there, don't leave Holland, support free trade.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36549603


You're confusing friends with allies. For example, during WW2 the UK allied with the USA and the Russians against the Nazis. That didn't stop Churchill to draft operation unthinkable who would have seen British-German-US forces invading Russia with the aid of the atomic bomb. Friends work differently. For example Blair supported Bush in Iraq even though he probably suspected he will get screwed by it.

As EU member, the UK is a valid ally. Its (or was) a staunch supporter of the pro business vibe, its against red tape and the one fits all mentality. Once outside the EU, the UK will have little say with what happens within the EU and will become a competitor. No one like competitors especially those who cant resist insulting their competition.
 
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£ and € will definitely reach parity at some point in the coming months.
 
You'll find plenty of people who wouldn't want the UK gone. Even my country had been pretty vocal about your concerns about the EU. However things change quickly when you ask them if they want to get screwed by you on their way out

The UK within the EU can be an ally. The UK outside the EU is a competitor. No one likes to help competitors

The EU will make the best deal for the EU and will only give something to the UK if it is to their benefit, which isn't really a surprise. I doubt they will punish the UK even if the result is punishing.
 
£ and € will definitely reach parity at some point in the coming months.
I got 1.0013 from one of the no commission cash dispensers at the airport on the way over to Slovenia last week so we're not that far off on a personal level.
 
I got 1.0013 from one of the no commission cash dispensers at the airport on the way over to Slovenia last week so we're not that far off on a personal level.

I was getting 0.94 from some places in Barcelona a few weeks back.
 
The EU will make the best deal for the EU and will only give something to the UK if it is to their benefit, which isn't really a surprise. I doubt they will punish the UK even if the result is punishing.

If you ask me, I think the EU will give the UK a cosmetic deal which is not what the UK needs. Its not a matter of punishing the UK. Its a matter of setting a deal all 27 countries will agree upon in a ridiculous time window of just 2 years.
 
You're confusing friends with allies. For example, during WW2 the UK allied with the USA and the Russians against the Nazis. That didn't stop Churchill to draft operation unthinkable who would have seen British-German-US forces invading Russia with the aid of the atomic bomb. Friends work differently. For example Blair supported Bush in Iraq even though he probably suspected he will get screwed by it.

As EU member, the UK is a valid ally. Its (or was) a staunch supporter of the pro business vibe, its against red tape and the one fits all mentality. Once outside the EU, the UK will have little say with what happens within the EU and will become a competitor. No one like competitors especially those who cant resist insulting their competition.
You are also confusing friends with allies. There are no friends among countries, only allies. You've got it wrong about Blair and Bush too. They weren't friends they were allies, because the countries are allies.
 
Your posts are a fine example of Brexiters' firmly head in the sand approach.

It's exactly because of such attitudes that the referendum should never have taken place.
Eventually some will realise that we are more than capable of standing on our own two feet, it will take time and they'll be loathe to admit it but they will realise. Until then these same people will continue to make derogatory posts about Brexiters. Fortunately our attitudes to the EU were what gave us a referendum and ultimately gave us Brexit. We took our head out of the sand and looked intently at the EU for what it was rather than what we were led to believe it was. I'll be forever grateful that enough of us had the courage and sense to do that and to speak out.
 
Eventually some will realise that we are more than capable of standing on our own two feet, it will take time and they'll be loathe to admit it but they will realise. Until then these same people will continue to make derogatory posts about Brexiters. Fortunately our attitudes to the EU were what gave us a referendum and ultimately gave us Brexit. We took our head out of the sand and looked intently at the EU for what it was rather than what we were led to believe it was. I'll be forever grateful that enough of us had the courage and sense to do that and to speak out.

Most of the stuff Brexiters, including yourself, whine about are the product of the unfair system in the UK. But do go on playing the Joan of Arc role, it suits you.
 
Most of the stuff Brexiters, including yourself, whine about are the product of the unfair system in the UK. But do go on playing the Joan of Arc role, it suits you.
Come back to me when we fail to flourish out of the EU. Or when the EU falls apart. Until then we should just accept that our opinions differ and as yet neither of us have any idea whether out or in will be the best way forward. We will in time though.
 
If these countries had made a stand with the US, an economy which is far richer and bigger then the UK and which unlike the UK it had never turned its back to Europe, then why should they work differently with you?


I am sure that they will offer a trade deal and they will do that to save Europe's blushes and not make themselves look like cnuts in front of the world fora. With that deal be acceptable? I much doubt it.

For the last time - I'm not British!:D

The EU's position on the proposed TTIP agreement with the US is based on a judgement that such a change in its existing trade relationship with America would be detrimental to its interests.

The EU has an existing trade relationship with Britain from which both parties benefit. The introduction of significant trade restrictions will disrupt that relationship and be harmful to both Britain and the EU. It makes more sense to let sleeping dogs lie.

There's a difference between telling workers all across Europe: "You must lose your jobs because we want to make an example of the bad British", and rejecting a radical alteration in the way Europe presently does business with the US.

The EU has a larger economy than Britain and has the advantage in that respect. But the British economy is not chopped liver and the EU can't hurt Britain without hurting itself. The British will come to the negotiating table as junior partners, not with a begging bowl. In the final analysis commonsense will prevail and all the multi-various strands linking Europe and Britain won't be cut out of a transient sense of pique.

I've said the same thing on this subject now for several posts going back to before the referendum. There's no point in saying it again. We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong and still around, I'll come to this thread and acknowledge my mistake.
 
For the last time - I'm not British!:D

The EU's position on the proposed TTIP agreement with the US is based on a judgement that such a change in its existing trade relationship with America would be detrimental to its interests.

The EU has an existing trade relationship with Britain from which both parties benefit. The introduction of significant trade restrictions will disrupt that relationship and be harmful to both Britain and the EU. It makes more sense to let sleeping dogs lie.

There's a difference between telling workers all across Europe: "You must lose your jobs because we want to make an example of the bad British", and rejecting a radical alteration in the way Europe presently does business with the US.

The EU has a larger economy than Britain and has the advantage in that respect. But the British economy is not chopped liver and the EU can't hurt Britain without hurting itself. The British will come to the negotiating table as junior partners, not with a begging bowl. In the final analysis commonsense will prevail and all the multi-various strands linking Europe and Britain won't be cut out of a transient sense of pique.

I've said the same thing on this subject now for several posts going back to before the referendum. There's no point in saying it again. We'll see what happens. If I'm wrong and still around, I'll come to this thread and acknowledge my mistake.


But you do realize that the UK and not the EU want to change the relationship? If the UK wants to leave the single market, non-tariff-barriers will exist again, just like with any other country that isn’t part of the single market. That has nothing to do with punishment or hostile behavior.

The EU will offer the UK a deal, that is somewhat similar to the ones that they have with other nations. In the end the UK has to decide what it wants, but it can hardly complain about getting unfair treatment. Tariff barriers won’t be a big issue anyway, because despite all the misinformation, that EU doesn’t have big tariffs on imports/exports (on average). The reduction of internal non-tariff barriers is what makes the single market so special, but that is precisely the part that the UK wants out of.

We’ll see what this means for the British economy, but it is common knowledge, that NTBs will affect the British exporting particularly strongly, because (financial)services and goods like drugs/ pharmaceutical products face a lot more regulation.
 
It seems on this board at least the people most worried about Brexit are foreign, or Brits living abroad. This could mean the real Brits are all a bit on the thick side of course, but it is odd. Some of the foreign members are absolutely obsessed with the subject. Always an interesting read though.
 
It seems on this board at least the people most worried about Brexit are foreign, or Brits living abroad. This could mean the real Brits are all a bit on the thick side of course, but it is odd. Some of the foreign members are absolutely obsessed with the subject. Always an interesting read though.
With Stan and Will in your corner you're hardly in a position to call out any of the Remainers credentials. Most of us who live it on a daily basis have just given up responding to most of the same old bullshit posted by the Brexiters in here. As many of your lot are now saying, it's a done deal and we'll only get to see how bad things are going to get when/if A50 is activated and the negotiation process is well underway.

I'd stand by every prediction I have made about quite how bad things will get and am not surprised in the least that the tories are proposing foreigner registration already since we have legitimised immigration as the key topic of national importance and need to be clear on how we're going to round 'em up and ship 'em out. We're just so proud that you lot are going to make Britain great again but hope that at some time soon realisation is going to dawn on you all that this move is completely and utterly fecking stupid and will sink this country, not much hope though so we're manning our lifeboats to feck off from this petty, vicious little country once and for all when you lot have done royally screwing things up.
 
It seems on this board at least the people most worried about Brexit are foreign, or Brits living abroad. This could mean the real Brits are all a bit on the thick side of course, but it is odd. Some of the foreign members are absolutely obsessed with the subject. Always an interesting read though.

Probably looking in from the outside a more rational perspective can be gained; the rest of Europe on the whole would like the UK to remain part of the EU to provide balance politically and continue trading as they have.
Another advantage is that those outside the UK have not been brainwashed by Boris, Farage and the like or be subjected to newspapers like the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express.

The Uk should look internally for their problems rather than trying to blame everyone else or think that the grass is always greener .. etc
 
Come back to me when we fail to flourish out of the EU. Or when the EU falls apart. Until then we should just accept that our opinions differ and as yet neither of us have any idea whether out or in will be the best way forward. We will in time though.

Again your views are pure fantasy. Why should I and other sensible people have to defend the position that leaving the biggest trade market in the world will make you worse off? If you had a job but you got sacked and someone came along and said 'prove to me that you won't be better off sacked than in work' you'd laugh. And you are putting the onus on remain voters to demonstrate why you're delusional? I despair.
 
With Stan and Will in your corner you're hardly in a position to call out any of the Remainers credentials. Most of us who live it on a daily basis have just given up responding to most of the same old bullshit posted by the Brexiters in here. As many of your lot are now saying, it's a done deal and we'll only get to see how bad things are going to get when/if A50 is activated and the negotiation process is well underway.

I'd stand by every prediction I have made about quite how bad things will get and am not surprised in the least that the tories are proposing foreigner registration already since we have legitimised immigration as the key topic of national importance and need to be clear on how we're going to round 'em up and ship 'em out. We're just so proud that you lot are going to make Britain great again but hope that at some time soon realisation is going to dawn on you all that this move is completely and utterly fecking stupid and will sink this country, not much hope though so we're manning our lifeboats to feck off from this petty, vicious little country once and for all when you lot have done royally screwing things up.

Nice assumptions about 'your corner' and 'you lot' Bury, I voted Remain and would vote Remain again.
And where did I 'call out credentials' exactly? I made no criticism except in your paranoid head. Read Paul's reply below.
I do have views on how to go about Brexit now it's here, but that doesn't mean it is what I wanted.

Probably looking in from the outside a more rational perspective can be gained; the rest of Europe on the whole would like the UK to remain part of the EU to provide balance politically and continue trading as they have.
Another advantage is that those outside the UK have not been brainwashed by Boris, Farage and the like or be subjected to newspapers like the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and Express.

A lot in this Paul, I'm sure.
 
Again your views are pure fantasy. Why should I and other sensible people have to defend the position that leaving the biggest trade market in the world will make you worse off? If you had a job but you got sacked and someone came along and said 'prove to me that you won't be better off sacked than in work' you'd laugh. And you are putting the onus on remain voters to demonstrate why you're delusional? I despair.
There aren't any views in that post. Anyway, it's pointless to keep moaning and whinging about Brexit because the vote was won and we will leave. It's even more pointless to keep insulting people who think differently than you.
 
There aren't any views in that post. Anyway, it's pointless to keep moaning and whinging about Brexit because the vote was won and we will leave. It's even more pointless to keep insulting people who think differently than you.

There're no insults there but a nice simile trying to show why I think your views are irrational. It reflects the reality of the situation. As for Brexit, there's no point arguing about staying in the EU even though that's the best option but a hard brexit will be an economic Russian roulette and the people with no rational thought who are proven failures and lack proper knowledge, such as Davis, Fox and Duncan-Smith, should not be allowed to make those decisions. Also, this bit about 'no complaining' did not seem to be preached by Brexiters on their issue before the referendum and now all of a sudden we all have to fall in line? I thought Brexiters loved democracy?

By the way, I am not British but I saw my future in this country before the vote. I am not sure I'm welcomed any more after it and no amount of 'reassurances' can hide the fact the environment is pretty nasty towards foreigners based on nothing whatsoever except jealousy and irrational fears preached by the Farage and his ilk (who btw got his German passport immediately after the vote...).

My job is to look at risks, so if I had a penny for the amount of times someone told me to stop 'moaning' and then I was proven right, I'd be a rich man. Sometimes people with knowledge should not be afraid to take a stand against obvious lies spouted by demagogues like Farage and Boris sponsored by Murdoch (yuk, need to wash my fingers after writing his name).
 
There're no insults there but a nice simile trying to show why I think your views are irrational. It reflects the reality of the situation. As for Brexit, there's no point arguing about staying in the EU even though that's the best option but a hard brexit will be an economic Russian roulette and the people with no rational thought who are proven failures and lack proper knowledge, such as Davis, Fox and Duncan-Smith, should not be allowed to make those decisions. Also, this bit about 'no complaining' did not seem to be preached by Brexiters on their issue before the referendum and now all of a sudden we all have to fall in line? I thought Brexiters loved democracy?

By the way, I am not British but I saw my future in this country before the vote. I am not sure I'm welcomed any more after it and no amount of 'reassurances' can hide the fact the environment is pretty nasty towards foreigners based on nothing whatsoever except jealousy and irrational fears preached by the Farage and his ilk (who btw got his German passport immediately after the vote...).

My job is to look at risks, so if I had a penny for the amount of times someone told me to stop 'moaning' and then I was proven right, I'd be a rich man. Sometimes people with knowledge should not be afraid to take a stand against obvious lies spouted by demagogues like Farage and Boris sponsored by Murdoch (yuk, need to wash my fingers after writing his name).
Well I don't know where you live but where I live I haven't come across any animosity to foreigners, before or since Brexit and for what it's worth not one single person...and I mean not one....ever mentioned immigration during any discussion about whether to vote Leave or Remain. It was always the EU/Brussels stuff that was the deciding factor.

Farage's appeal was because he gave everyone who wanted to leave the EU a "voice" so to speak, more than anything else. Before that the EU was something we just had to accept because it was impossible to leave. He made the possibility of getting out a reality. We were in something we never voted to be in so getting out was a dream for many and it had little or nothing to do with immigration. Many people wanted to leave the EU long before immigration became an issue for anyone.
 
You seem like one of those Brexiters that voted for sovereignty who claims everyone did the same, not realising 90% of the vote was down to 'we don't want any more foreigners'. Personally, I understand the concerns on immigration but they have been stoked by government policy for years and years. Nothing to do with the EU, especially because it does not control non-EU immigration.

In fact, the government has made EU's migrants life very difficult lately. I had to wait 5 months to get a work permit (I am Bulgarian) after I graduated which was only based on a ticking a box saying I have a degree. You would not believe the amount of red tape introduced by May's Home Office in the last few years and it's getting worse.

Reading and listening to her speech and those of her cabinet, I am seriously thinking whether I have missed an election in the last 12 months. She's turning the country on its head with no mandate to do so. This won't end well.
 
You seem like one of those Brexiters that voted for sovereignty who claims everyone did the same, not realising 90% of the vote was down to 'we don't want any more foreigners'. Personally, I understand the concerns on immigration but they have been stoked by government policy for years and years. Nothing to do with the EU, especially because it does not control non-EU immigration.

In fact, the government has made EU's migrants life very difficult lately. I had to wait 5 months to get a work permit (I am Bulgarian) after I graduated which was only based on a ticking a box saying I have a degree. You would not believe the amount of red tape introduced by May's Home Office in the last few years and it's getting worse.

Reading and listening to her speech and those of her cabinet, I am seriously thinking whether I have missed an election in the last 12 months. She's turning the country on its head with no mandate to do so. This won't end well.

I'd love to know where you got that "90% of the vote was down to not wanting foreigners" idea from when the statistical breakdowns I saw at the time suggested it was more like a third of leavers who named immigration as their #1 reason for voting to leave.

Seems like you're one of the 90% of people who make up nonsense stats on the spot. :P
 
I'd love to know where you got that "90% of the vote was down to not wanting foreigners" idea from when the statistical breakdowns I saw at the time suggested it was more like a third of leavers who named immigration as their #1 reason for voting to leave.

Seems like you're one of the 90% of people who make up nonsense stats on the spot. :P

What percentage of that percentage told the truth