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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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I don't agree with all the assumptions and arguments of the author, but it is still a good comment in a time, when both sides use rather divisive rhetoric. These negotiations are not a zero-sum game. Cooperation is in the interest of both sides and keeping as many ties as possible with the UK is desirable.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/10/punishing-britain-with-a-tough-brexit-will-harm-everyone/

Punishing Britain with a tough Brexit will harm everyone
The mood against Britain in Europe is hardening, with French president François Hollande calling for a tough Brexit to deter other states from leaving. But, argues Stefan Kooths, this is an enormous mistake. The uncertainty will harm everyone involved in negotiations. If Britons are to be convinced of the EU’s benefits – and perhaps one day decide to rejoin – we should keep as many bridges as possible between the UK and the EU. That probably means giving up the principle of freedom of movement of labour.
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Paul the Wolf said:
Yes I agree with both of you and a hard border would be a disaster.
I am thinking of the practicalities.

There are all sorts of ramifications though which I haven't had time to completely think about but just off the top of my head.
Lorry or container arrives into Ireland carrying goods from Poland, for example. If the Uk are out of the single market and tariffs are imposed on these goods, duty payable etc . These goods can be sold within Ireland without payment of duty etc, or declaration and are in free circulation and can be sold to an Irish buyer. If the lorry decided to drive into Northern Ireland and sell the goods there or the Irish buyer decides then to sell the goods to a buyer in Northern Ireland, what happens then. Where are the custom controls and who pays the duties etc. The reverse can also be true.

Also the people who live in Ireland can pop into Northern Ireland and freely buy goods and vice versa, who will be monitoring the formalities of this?
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Aye, it's a logistical nightmare, as well as a boon for smugglers:

http://m.independent.ie/opinion/com...pen-the-northern-ireland-border-34833965.html
 
Red Defence said:
Mervyn King said:
"During the referendum campaign, someone said the real danger of Brexit is you'll end up with higher interest rates, lower house prices and a lower exchange rate, and I thought: dream on.

"Because that's what we've been trying to achieve for the past three years and now we have a chance of getting it."
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Maybe that will help explain things a bit.
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Well that's the bit that was missing from the Guardian piece Nick quoted and whilst I'll agree that long term something to reduce the housing bubble, encourage savers and kick start pension funds and possibly even restart our manufacturing industries are all good things and goals that the Bank of England sought for many years I do question how many people will suffer badly in the short to medium term as they are plunged into negative equity yet can't afford to meet the rising costs of their mortgages that have not moved in the last 8 years. Similarly our industry is no longer geared up for manufacture, we sold all of that down the river chasing the dream of a service economy decades ago; even the handful of manufacturers we do have only make components which head onto the continent to wind up in products finished elsewhere, jobs which could be moved offshore if we do go for a hard Brexit.
 
Xeno said:
Why is there a fat man dressed as a dairy cow on CNN discussing the falling pound?
14671119_649994488499183_3583706020082715371_n.jpg
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He's probably the fatted calf Brexit have promised
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes I agree with both of you and a hard border would be a disaster.
I am thinking of the practicalities.

There are all sorts of ramifications though which I haven't had time to completely think about but just off the top of my head.
Lorry or container arrives into Ireland carrying goods from Poland, for example. If the Uk are out of the single market and tariffs are imposed on these goods, duty payable etc . These goods can be sold within Ireland without payment of duty etc, or declaration and are in free circulation and can be sold to an Irish buyer. If the lorry decided to drive into Northern Ireland and sell the goods there or the Irish buyer decides then to sell the goods to a buyer in Northern Ireland, what happens then. Where are the custom controls and who pays the duties etc. The reverse can also be true.

Also the people who live in Ireland can pop into Northern Ireland and freely buy goods and vice versa, who will be monitoring the formalities of this?
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My guess is a hardline on travel from Northern Ireland to mainland Britain and sort of give up on a losing border battle, that's why this talk of legal smuggling is starting to grow up here.
It's an enormous loophole that's impossible to plug in the current climate imo.
 
PedroMendez said:
I don't agree with all the assumptions and arguments of the author, but it is still a good comment in a time, when both sides use rather divisive rhetoric. These negotiations are not a zero-sum game. Cooperation is in the interest of both sides and keeping as many ties as possible with the UK is desirable.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/10/punishing-britain-with-a-tough-brexit-will-harm-everyone/
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How dare you! He's a foreign expert, clearly his advice should be thrown in the gutter.
 
Scholesy said:
I would like the UK to be a country of no imports and exports, stand on our own
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It's impossible, even a country like Russia who has most of the crucial raw material can't. And what do you do with financial exports and the City in general?
 
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Imagine if a quid equalled a dollar. Not that far off now.
 
berbatrick said:
How dare you! He's a foreign expert, clearly his advice should be thrown in the gutter.
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:lol:
JPRouve said:
It's impossible, even a country like Russia who has most of the crucial raw material can't. And what do you with financial exports and the City in general?
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It is not just impossible, but it would be utterly stupid. You’d destroy an incredible amount of wealth (probably cut the GDP in half). Modern western life-style is completely unthinkable without trade.



+

Here is an essay that explains what "hard-brexit" could mean for the financial industry in the UK. It is quite technical, but should help to understand what discussion about financial passports is all about.
 
I suspect it'll drop further once we've left the EU cum March.
 
PedroMendez said:
It is not just impossible, but it would be utterly stupid. You’d destroy an incredible amount of wealth (probably cut the GDP in half). Modern western life-style is completely unthinkable without trade.
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I know, I had in mind an hypothetical world where it wouldn't lead to degrowth.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It will surely drop a lot more when the UK leaves the EU, but that won't be in March. The earliest the UK leaves the EU will be (within - supposedly) two years from the date Article 50 is triggered - 2019 onwards
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Sorry my mistake...I should've said it'll nosedive again once article 50 is triggered.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I wouldn't be so sure
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I could pick all sorts of goods that it would rule out consuming, but it literally amounts to someone saying:

I would like the UK to be a country of no tea (and coffee)

Possibly the most un-British statement imaginable
 
Cina said:
These other countries haven't been a part of a 600m+ people single market for 20+ years and had the vast majority of the imports and exports go through it, as well as their capital city be arguably the most important financial centre in the world as a result of it.
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Both those assertions are untrue. The vast majority of Britain's trade is not with the EU, and London was one of the world's top financial centers long before Britain joined the EEC.

There's no need to go into meltdown simply because the pound has fallen. It's been overvalued for years, mainly due to the large amounts of money which flow into London because of its attractions as a global financial center, creating a huge asset bubble, in particular the gross inflation of the London property market.

Britain's real economy has suffered as a consequence of this, with a pound which may be as much as 20% above its natural level without those large financial flows. Exporters have had a tough time. Britain has been running a trade deficit for the past 15 years, and in the last few years the situation has deteriorated further, with the deficit rising to between 5% and 6%. It's past time the pound fell, and the present drop may be just what the doctor ordered.
 
Untied said:
I could pick all sorts of goods that it would rule out consuming, but it literally amounts to someone saying:

I would like the UK to be a country of no tea (and coffee)

Possibly the most un-British statement imaginable
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I know, I was joking, but there have been some idiotic statements on this thread
 
Member 5225 said:
Fundamentally disagree with this bit. The EU causing uncertainty about their 'project' is a huge reason for why Brexit happened. From a trading union to social union, political union and now talk of military union - who knows what's next? In fact, if they had been (are) just open and upfront about their aims, what they ultimately want to achieve (ala UN when it was setup), then they'd have far less angst their way IMHO.
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Institutions evolve, I don't see why you expect that they'll know where they will be when the world changes around them
 
Will Absolute said:
Both those assertions are untrue. The vast majority of Britain's trade is not with the EU, and London was one of the world's top financial centers long before Britain joined the EEC.

There's no need to go into meltdown simply because the pound has fallen. It's been overvalued for years, mainly due to the large amounts of money which flow into London because of its attractions as a global financial center, creating a huge asset bubble, in particular the gross inflation of the London property market.

Britain's real economy has suffered as a consequence of this, with a pound which may be as much as 20% above its natural level without those large financial flows. Exporters have had a tough time. Britain has been running a trade deficit for the past 15 years, and in the last few years the situation has deteriorated further, with the deficit rising to between 5% and 6%. It's past time the pound fell, and the present drop may be just what the doctor ordered.
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:confused: 44% was with the Single Market last year. It's a far higher number than the next closest (USA: 14.8%)
 
Mozza said:
Institutions evolve, I don't see why you expect that they'll know where they will be when the world changes around them
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When as a British person by birth did I sign up to my country being in some social union where we are borderless and 'share culture' with an ever growing number of countries? Not that it's bad, but when did I sign up to it? I think the manner almost pushed a lot of people (including me) just over the edge IMHO.
 
Member 5225 said:
When as a British person by birth did I sign up to my country being in some social union where we are borderless and 'share culture' with an ever growing number of countries? Not that it's bad, but when did I sign up to it? I think the manner almost pushed a lot of people (including me) just over the edge IMHO.
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You are not borderless and no one asked you to share your culture, in fact the UK have the chance to not have to learn other countries language for example.
 
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