2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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senorgregster said:
Less than 270 by any candidate is also a deadlock, right? I wonder if he'll start registering in states others than Utah now that people know his name? Way too late?
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He's registered in a number of states. The issue with him is very few Republicans will vote for him because they know he has no chance of winning and are generally in a crazed pro-Trump state. In fact Gary Johnson will almost certainly get more votes across the country than McMullin, although the latter has a much better chance of actually getting Utah's 6 electoral votes.

If you combine the possibility of Clinton winning Arizona and McMullin depriving Trump of 6 EVs in Utah, it would more or less offset the loss of a state like Ohio for Hillary.
 
Raoul said:
He's a Republican protest candidate who entered the race so normal Republicans could vote for someone they could bear, without the future political baggage of having voted for Trump. He is a mormon, so his numbers in Utah aren't entirely surprising, although not too many people thought he would win the state.
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Clinton would be best asking her democrats to vote for him as well. I'm sure some of this is going on.

Used to this in NI, where Nationalists will vote unionist to keep a DUP candidate out of the seat
 
senorgregster said:
Less than 270 by any candidate is also a deadlock, right? I wonder if he'll start registering in states others than Utah now that people know his name? Way too late?
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You'd have to look state by state at the deadlines for getting a candidate on the ballot, but I would guess that with less than a month to go that yes it is far too late to get him on the ballot in any state he is not already on.
 
bazalini said:
What's that poll? Whats behind it
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It's the most accurate poll in 2012, pretty similar to USC/Dornsife in that regard.

There's been a sharp divergence of online pollsters and live interview pollster this year. The average difference is about 4 points. The 'rolling panel' ones like LAT and IBD are the most favourable to Drumpf.

One reason maybe that he has a much more robust presence online, making it harder to select the samples. With the notable exception of Michigan, a state with horrible data to poll in the Dem primary, live interview polls have been pretty close this cycle so there's no reason to think that they are off by 7/8 points.
 
senorgregster said:
I used a confusing word there. I meant "registering in voters' minds" in that they'd actually think about voting for him.
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If people are really looking for a protest vote but don't want to vote Trump, they might seek out other options, but unless the news starts talking about him I doubt he has the money to put any effort into ads in any states.
 
Just proves what most people assumed -- he never believed any of the shit he was spewing. He just knew that the GOP base would eat it up.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
It's the most accurate poll in 2012, pretty similar to USC/Dornsife in that regard.

There's been a sharp divergence of online pollsters and live interview pollster this year. The average difference is about 4 points. The 'rolling panel' ones like LAT and IBD are the most favourable to Drumpf.

One reason maybe that he has a much more robust presence online, making it harder to select the samples. With the notable exception of Michigan, a state with horrible data to poll in the Dem primary, live interview polls have been pretty close this cycle so there's no reason to think that they are off by 7/8 points.
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Thanks for info.

No movement in the betting market, so I'll give it a wide ball.

Clinton presently 1.21 on Betfair.
 


Clinton lost NH by 22 points in the primaries, Drumpf won.

Probably the most illuminating contrast between primary vs general electorate.
 
Palin probably looks quite sensible compared to Trump.
 


My question - who the hell thought "bargain" was a good idea?!
 
Apparently Trump has invited James O'Keefe (the guy who made those videos about Creamer and Foval) to the debate.
 
Theme: Fairness/Families

A fair shot and a fair deal

Hillary - For Fairness. For Families.

Building a fairer future today

Fairness worth the fight

Fairness First.

Putting Fairness First

A fair chance for families

A fair fight for families

You’ve earned a fair shot

You’ve earned a fair chance

A fair chance to get ahead

Families first

Building a fairer future

Fairness for all our families



Theme: Fighter

Fighting for Fairness. Fighting for you.

She’s got your back

Your family is her fight

Your family. Her fight

Your future is her fight

Your future. Her fight.

A force for families

No Quit

A fighting chance for families


Theme: Basic Bargain/Making America Work

Renewing America’s promise

Renewing our basic bargain

A new promise for a new time

A better bargain for a better tomorrow

Get ahead. Stay ahead.

A better bargain. For all.

An America that works for you.

An America built for you.

A new bargain for a stronger America

Time for a better bargain.

Putting America to work for you

Making America work for you

A promise you can count on



Theme: Strength

Stronger together

A stronger tomorrow

Strength and fairness

Together we’re strong

Strength you can count on

A stronger America working for you

The ideas we need and the strength to deliver

A stronger America for a new day

America’s strength. America’s promise.

American strength from American families

Stronger at home

For an America that leads

America gets strong when you get ahead

A stronger America one family at a time

Strength for all our families


Theme: Results/Count on

Real Fairness; Real Solutions

New Solutions Real Results

A new bargain we can count on.

Progress for the rest of us


Theme: In it together

Progress for people

Progress for all

Getting ahead together

Making America work. Together.

Moving Ahead. Together.


Theme: Future/Forward

Your future. Your terms.

Lifting us up. Moving us forward.

Building tomorrow’s America

Building a better tomorrow

Our Families, Our Future

Secure the Future

A future worth fighting for

For your family. For America's future

Don’t turn back

Keep moving

Move up

Rise Up

Own the future

Go further

Move ahead

Climb higher

Unleash opportunity


Theme: It’s about you

It's about you. It's about time

It’s about time…and it’s about you.

It’s about you.

Because your time is now

It’s your turn

It’s your time

It’s your time

Next begins with you

They make a bit more sense when you see them divided by theme. Early campaign brainstorming, I guess.
 
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