Global economy - Future stock market collapse..

This blows my simple mind. How can everyone be up to their eyeballs in debt? Surely all that debt is equally matched by national banks who that money is owed to? Just seems crazy that every government everywhere owes a shit-load of money. As though it's dissapearing into a black hole, rather than just moving around. Which is what I always thought happened. What the feck happened to that $216tn?!?


It is not "net-debt", but overall debt of government, private households and corporations (both financial and non-financial) combined.
Most governments have a debt-to-GDP ratio between 60%-150% (Japan is #1 with over 225%). Countries with very little debt either defaulted recently, are fairly underdeveloped or have access to natural resource (with few exceptions). Household debt varies massively and poorer countries have smaller levels of private debt. In Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, Netherlands, Canada, NZ, Norway, UK, SK, USA and Sweden households have an aggregated debt level between 80%-125% of the GDP. The rest of the debt is issued by companies.

It is up for debate which levels of debt are sustainable or reasonable, but these are historically high numbers (both relative and absolute). Most governments don't even try to balance their budgets nowadays anymore and made new debt in almost every year since wwII. Politicans just follow very bad incentives (low taxes + high expenditures).
It is completely normal for households to make huge amounts of debt and it is fairly easy. Think of all the student-loans, cars-loans, credit-card-debt and obviously debt for housing (which is obviously normal to some extend).
Profitable corporations can refinance themselves extremely cheaply, which gives them a huge incentive to make debt. Bayer just bought Monsanto for 62bn and the majority of this takeover is financed with new debt. The financial industry is also horribly over-leveraged.

Recently more people are getting aware of it, but there is no credible commitment to reverse/stop this development. There is an unholy alliance between economists, who tell politicians and central bankers that they need to stimulate demand by making debt. Politicians love that because it justifies their spending sprees and are following this mantra for a couple of decades now. Central bankers are also 100% captured by this idea and lowered their interest-rates + QE to push more debt onto people.
 
While we applaud the idealistic German press for holding out such a hard line stance, we are certain that the collective sentiment will quickly change if and when some €560 billion in German deposits are suddenly in danger of being either bailed-in or defaulted upon, and - just as in the US - will promptly demand a taxpayer funded bailout if confidence in DB once again vaporized, leading to the next leg lower in the bank's securities.
 
There's zero chance she won't be elected next year.
I can live in hope

Lets see next year, if she's voted back in after spending loads of german tax payers money on Greece and the migrant chaos, then German folks are as stupid as the UK folks that put Cameron in charge of leaving the eu
 
I can live in hope

Lets see next year, if she's voted back in after spending loads of german tax payers money on Greece and the migrant chaos, then German folks are as stupid as the UK folks that put Cameron in charge of leaving the eu

So far we've payed nothing for Greece and the migrant chaos isn't one anymore. In most parts of Germany, it's a non-issue these days, the structures have settled.
 
So far we've payed nothing for Greece and the migrant chaos isn't one anymore. In most parts of Germany, it's a non-issue these days, the structures have settled.

Really, its all settled I hadn't noticed? I had looked at the recent election results which were terrible for Merkel and the continuing problems in the middle east and the record increasing numbers of refugees and thought there might be a few problems to resolve but its all sorted. Thank goodness I was worrying unduly.
 
Really, its all settled I hadn't noticed? I had looked at the recent election results which were terrible for Merkel and the continuing problems in the middle east and the record increasing numbers of refugees and thought there might be a few problems to resolve but its all sorted. Thank goodness I was worrying unduly.

It's sorted for Germany. All what I was referring to here. Numbers have dropped considerably, we have enough room for the ones already here and the adminstration has build up the structures necessary.
And the election results weren't great, but far from terrible.
It was eastern Germany, it's not like they really matter in the grand scale.
People over there were always prone to protest voting, that's what we are seeing right now.
Well and there are a lot of racists over there who now have a party to vote for, there's that.
Still, I would be bewildered if the AfD as a whole would make it above 10 percent in 2017 in the general election.
They have their voterbase, it always existed and will continue to do so, but that's it.
Someone here talked about SPD-Grüne_Linke being a realistic possibility, it's not.
The Linke isn't fit to rule and the partybase of the SPD would probably riot if they got anywhere near that coalition.
It's far more likely Merkel will just take Die Grünen as a partner next time.
 
Great Interview with one of my favorite economists, who summaries some problems of the current monetary policy in a way that the layman can understand it. You don’t even need to read anything, because it is recorded. 45 minutes well spend, if you are interested in economics.




WilliamWhite's interview by Cris Sheridan,Senior Editor Financial Sense
The interview took place on 27 September 2016 with Cris Sheridan, Senior Editor, Financial Sense

Follow this link to hear the interview: http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2016-0928-white-s9j3n7c.mp3

Publication:
Financial Sense
Date:
27 September, 2016
 
Staggering that the FTSE 100 missed a record close by a whisker today. I must be missing something. It's not even 'irrational exuberance'. It's been the most hated rally ever, obviously driven by central bank policy.
God knows how bad it will be when the mood turns.
 
Here is a good example, why I frequently rant about finance regulations:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-for-clearing-crisis-the-next-too-big-to-fail

CCPs were promoted by politicians as panacea against all the evils/risks of derivatives. Well turns out they are not (which is/was quite obvious), so they need to introduce more regulation to “fix” the problem. At least they are honest about all the mumbo-jumbo. In the end it just a fancy way for to get tax-payer money:

“Should these options be unavailable or be demonstrably insufficient to safeguard financial stability, government participation in the shape of equity support or temporary public ownership could be considered as a last resort,” according to the proposal. Those steps would need to comply with EU rules on state aid.
 
In oversight we trust. :wenger:

Deutsche Bank was given special treatment in EU stress tests
German lender’s result was boosted by a special concession agreed by the European Central Bank

Deutsche Bank was given special treatment in the summer EU stress tests that promised to restore faith in Europe’s banks by assessing all of their finances in the same way.


By signing up you confirm that you have read and agree to the terms and conditions, cookie policy and privacy policy.

Germany’s biggest lender, which has seen its share price fall as much as 22 per cent in recent weeks on fears that it could face a US fine of up to $14bn, has been using the results of the July stress tests as evidence of its healthy finances.

But the Financial Times has learnt that Deutsche’s result was boosted by a special concession agreed by its supervisor, the European Central Bank.

Deutsche’s results included the $4bn proceeds from selling its stake in Chinese lender Hua Xia even though the deal had not been done by the end of 2015, the official cut-off point for transactions to be included.

The Hua Xia sale was agreed in December 2015. It has still not been completed and now faces a delay after missing a regulatory deadline last month, though the bank is still confident of completion this year.

The Hua Xia treatment was disclosed in a footnote to Deutsche’s stress test results. None of the other 50 banks in the stress tests had similar footnotes, even though several also had deals agreed but not completed at the end of 2015.

In one case, Spanish lender Caixabank completed the €2.65bn sale of foreign assets to its parent company Criteria Holding in March but was still not allowed to include the impact of that sale in its results.


“This [Deutsche’s treatment] is perplexing,” said Chris Wheeler, an analyst at Atlantic Equities. “The circumstances mean that it is inevitable the market watchers will be suspicious and have some concern about the veracity of the results.”

Deutsche’s common equity tier one capital fell to 7.8 per cent after the bank was subjected to the stress tests’ imagined doomsday scenario of fines, low interest rates and low economic growth.

Without the Hua Xia boost, the ratio would have been 7.4 per cent, a level comfortably above regulatory minimums. Still, the higher published result helped reassure investors who were growing increasingly nervy about the bank’s capital adequacy.

Nicolas Véron of Bruegel, the Brussels think-tank, said it was important that both the ECB and the European Banking Authority, which oversaw the tests, could “explain and defend their methodological choices”, especially given the market focus on Deutsche.

“Stress testing methodologies should be applied uniformly and without any special treatment,” he added. “This of course equally applies to banks that are systemically important, such as Deutsche Bank.”

The ECB, is responsible for approving any deviations to the published methodology for banks in the eurozone countries it supervises. The EBA does not have the power to reject deviations.

The ECB said it “treats all banks equally in line with the regulation”. It would not comment on the Deutsche case specifically.

The EBA said that there were more than 20 “one-offs” approved in the stress tests. “The one-offs are designed to avoid obvious anomalies in the forward-looking stress test where events have already taken place in 2015,” the EBA said.

Stress testing methodologies should be applied uniformly and without any special treatment

Nicolas Véron, Bruegel
Research by the FT shows that the other “one-offs” were disclosed citing a clause in the methodology that permits limited concessions around “administrative expenses, profit or loss from discontinued operations and other operation expenses”.

The Deutsche disclosure simply says that the results include the proceeds of the Hua Xia sale, which “will be closed in 2016”. There is no effort to reconcile that to the official rules, which say: “any divestments, capital measures or other transactions that were not completed before 31 December 2015, even if they were agreed upon before this date, should not be taken into account in the projections”.

Deutsche declined to comment. The German bank still took a battering from the stress tests: its capital position was hit by 540 basis points, compared with an average in the sample of 380 basis points.

Additional reporting by Tobias Buck in Madrid
 
Ah the Deutsche Bank. How this criminal institution is still running is beyond me. Fraud, bribery, money laundering, systematic tax evasion the only distinction between them and the Cosa Nostra is the fact that the Mafia doesn't make as much money.

This bank should have been split up, sold to the highest bidders and the people in charge should rot in jail for the rest of their life's. Instead we are talking about bailing them out with tax payer money. I don't even know what to say to this anymore, it's soooo insane yet the thing most of my dear countrymen seem to be concerned with is how we will be able to pay for all the refugees coming into the country.

I'm honestly starting to lose my faith in society over shit like this. :(
 
brilliant podcast episode. Generally speaking, econtalk is often good, but this episode is particularly interesting.
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/10/chris_arnade_on.html
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/10/chris_arnade_on.html

Chris Arnade, former Wall Street trader turned photographer and social chronicler, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about what he learned from the front lines of the financial industry in the 1990s and 2000s when everything slowly and then very quickly began to fall apart. He also discusses his transition into observer and photographer of drug addicts, the poor, and the forgotten parts of America.
 
Portugal as a country is in shambles for quite some time. They were hit very hard by the economic crisis and never really got out of it. Their reforms were not a success. They struggle with unemployment and debt and things don’t look particularly bright. Years ago all the big rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch) downgraded their credit-worthiness below IG. A small Canadian rating agency (DBRS), that is almost completely irrelevant outside of Canada, disagrees and continues to rate them with IG status(BBBlow =Baa3=BBB-). This week they renewed this assessment in their new report against any common sense or expertise (they are the only rating agency that is giving Portugal an IG rating for the last 5 years).

So why does that matter? The ECB is only allowed to buy government bonds or accept them as security, when at least one rating agency gives these bonds an IG rating. Without this IG rating, Portugal’s re-financing costs would sky-rocket and the country would take a big step towards a “Greece-like situation”. They’d need to negotiate another “aid-package” with Europe and the IMF to raise money for their banks and their government, which would be problematic given all the tension that exists in Europe already.

All that is pretty much well known. The ECB deliberately accepts this ridiculous assessment from DBRS to prevent another political crisis in European. Kick the can down the road. It also proves again, that the ECB is not an independent institution anymore that acts according to its statutes, but a political actor that only follows political considerations.
 
Portugal as a country is in shambles for quite some time. They were hit very hard by the economic crisis and never really got out of it. Their reforms were not a success. They struggle with unemployment and debt and things don’t look particularly bright. Years ago all the big rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch) downgraded their credit-worthiness below IG. A small Canadian rating agency (DBRS), that is almost completely irrelevant outside of Canada, disagrees and continues to rate them with IG status(BBBlow =Baa3=BBB-). This week they renewed this assessment in their new report against any common sense or expertise (they are the only rating agency that is giving Portugal an IG rating for the last 5 years).

So why does that matter? The ECB is only allowed to buy government bonds or accept them as security, when at least one rating agency gives these bonds an IG rating. Without this IG rating, Portugal’s re-financing costs would sky-rocket and the country would take a big step towards a “Greece-like situation”. They’d need to negotiate another “aid-package” with Europe and the IMF to raise money for their banks and their government, which would be problematic given all the tension that exists in Europe already.

All that is pretty much well known. The ECB deliberately accepts this ridiculous assessment from DBRS to prevent another political crisis in European. Kick the can down the road. It also proves again, that the ECB is not an independent institution anymore that acts according to its statutes, but a political actor that only follows political considerations.
I think the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place tbh. The last thing anyone needs is another run on Portuguese government bonds.
Maybe the ratings agency says they are investment grade cos they are backstopped by the ECB. Obviously a bit dodgy.
Having been to Greece earlier this month and spoken to people there, they feel stuck in a never-ending recession. God knows how it all ends.
 
I think the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place tbh. The last thing anyone needs is another run on Portuguese government bonds.
Maybe the ratings agency says they are investment grade cos they are backstopped by the ECB. Obviously a bit dodgy.
Having been to Greece earlier this month and spoken to people there, they feel stuck in a never-ending recession. God knows how it all ends.

My fear is they stop voting left to challenge the system and start voting for a right wing alternative to challenge the system.
 
I think the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place tbh. The last thing anyone needs is another run on Portuguese government bonds.
Maybe the ratings agency says they are investment grade cos they are backstopped by the ECB. Obviously a bit dodgy.
Having been to Greece earlier this month and spoken to people there, they feel stuck in a never-ending recession. God knows how it all ends.

The ECB doesn’t have the authority to make this decision. They are massively overstepping their institutional mandate. If the EU-19 want to “bailout” another country, they should do it through the front door and not illegally behind the back of the public, who doesn’t understand these issues. I’d have some sympathy for the ECB, if their policy of financing countries would actually help, but it doesn’t. It is harmful, because it allows governments to continue their irresponsible policies. They are driving the excavator that is digging the hole deeper and deeper.

Who is getting fooled here? Banks and investors know that this is just a trick, but they are not at risk when the ECB acts as backstop. It is just a cheap PR exercise to deceive the public. The cat is dead. It is time to open the box, burry the carcass and move on.
 
It is hard to see how the EU can go on as it is. The weak southern states are trapped in a no growth debt spiral as we seemingly head into a global economic downturn.
The ECB is all but out of ammo. Everyone talks about replacing QE with fiscal stimulus but that means even more debt.
We ppronably need the mother of all recessions to shake it all out, but it will be painful.
 
Sadly I am not sure that central banks & politicians are really out of ammo. Negative interest rates were unthinkable 10 years ago, now they are almost the new normal. I am not sure anymore that they stop at this point. As long as people believe that you can spend your way out of excessive indebtedness, this idiocy will continue.
 
Sadly I am not sure that central banks & politicians are really out of ammo. Negative interest rates were unthinkable 10 years ago, now they are almost the new normal. I am not sure anymore that they stop at this point. As long as people believe that you can spend your way out of excessive indebtedness, this idiocy will continue.
It is remarkable that negative yielding bond issues are oversubscribed.
Whole developed world is turning into Japan.
 
Italy’s NPLs:
EUROZONE-BANKS.jpg


http://uk.reuters.com/article/eurozone-banks-italy-badloans-repeat-pix-idUKL8N1CT0F6

"(…)Documents associated with a single loan can take up an entire cupboard. In one case I remember half a room filled with papers related to just one loan.(…)"

“(…)To shed the bad debts, Monte dei Paschi is relying on a guarantee provided by the state and a major investment by Atlante, a state-sponsored bailout fund financed by leading Italian financial institutions.

(…)”

I got interested how this Atlante fund was able to raise money. Officially the government wasn’t able to bail out the banks. So for some reason various banks that try to load off bad loans actually capitalize this fund, which is just mind-boggling. Does that make any sense? No, who cares. Additionally I just discovered this beauty: http://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-banks-italy-pension-funds-idUSL8N1AB1VU
So the government tried to “encourage” pension funds to invest in this garbage to raise additional money. While some stupendous operative initially pledged to support the fund, the CEOs of these pension funds pulled the plug and prevented this madness. Still tells you a lot about the government, when they are willing to throw pension funds under the bus.

In the end Atlante II failed to raise the money, they planned to get, which probably tells you how bad this investment must be.

That is all the Italian government was able to come up with to solve the crisis in their banking sector. I’d laugh, if it wouldn’t be so sad.
 
I got interested how this Atlante fund was able to raise money. Officially the government wasn’t able to bail out the banks. So for some reason various banks that try to load off bad loans actually capitalize this fund, which is just mind-boggling. Does that make any sense? No, who cares. Additionally I just discovered this beauty: http://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-banks-italy-pension-funds-idUSL8N1AB1VU
So the government tried to “encourage” pension funds to invest in this garbage to raise additional money. While some stupendous operative initially pledged to support the fund, the CEOs of these pension funds pulled the plug and prevented this madness. Still tells you a lot about the government, when they are willing to throw pension funds under the bus.

In the end Atlante II failed to raise the money, they planned to get, which probably tells you how bad this investment must be.

That is all the Italian government was able to come up with to solve the crisis in their banking sector. I’d laugh, if it wouldn’t be so sad.

Has anyone in history, government or private sector, not been willing to throw the pension funds under the bus? I tend to think that their permanent status is tied to a railroad, waiting for the next train to run them over.
 
There are many people who are going off the rails, when praising Scandinavian countries for their policies. These countries are often portrait as the be-all-end-all, but the reality is a bit more complicated. Here is a fairly biased but still an interesting article that is taking a different perspective. Take it with a pinch of salt.


https://mises.org/blog/when-it-comes-household-income-sweden-and-germany-rank-kentucky

When it Comes to Household Income, Sweden and Germany Rank with Kentucky
 
There are many people who are going off the rails, when praising Scandinavian countries for their policies. These countries are often portrait as the be-all-end-all, but the reality is a bit more complicated. Here is a fairly biased but still an interesting article that is taking a different perspective. Take it with a pinch of salt.

https://mises.org/blog/when-it-comes-household-income-sweden-and-germany-rank-kentucky

Ooooohh, you're going to pay for that...

That rank does line up with my anecdotal, not even based on a single statistic or calculation, impression: the only people I've gotten to know a few of that seemed generally more minted than the Americans are the Swiss.
 
Ooooohh, you're going to pay for that...

That rank does line up with my anecdotal, not even based on a single statistic or calculation, impression: the only people I've gotten to know a few of that seemed generally more minted than the Americans are the Swiss.

:lol:
These kinds of analysis are always biased, but the data in this one is not deliberately false. Generally speaking I don’t think that it makes particularly much sense to compare a country like the USA with a country with <10m population. It is quite remarkable, that the USA is performing (economically) so well despite being so large and diverse. It is great fun to listen to the center-left in Europe talking about the USA. You’d get the impression that the USA has to be a mad-max like dystopian world, where half of the population is starving. The delusion is strong, but sadly a lot of people believe this crap. Heck, these people even oppose more free-trade with Canada, because apparently Canada’s social standards are not high enough.
If anyone wants to point to a prime example of good governance in Europe, Swiss has to be the first country that comes to mind. It is not even close. Yet for rather obvious ideological reasons, many people point to Scandinavia…..Swiss is just too committed to free markets and a decentralized political system. Anyway, maybe that is food for thought for anyone who thinks that “more government” is the answer to all our problems.
 
The Swiss are a pariah state, robbing other nations tax take, as are Luxembourg

The US has great natural resources and wasn't devastated by war a little over 60 years ago, ofcourse they should be ahead. Life in Western Europe is pretty comfortable
 
:lol: Krugmann is a clown.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.


oooops. How can someone be so clueless about everything and yet people still take him seriously. :lol:
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ing-for-the-worlds-progressives-a7416016.html
Could have posted this in a number of threads but i'm posting it here because I have questions on 2 parts:
It sucked into its territory the net exports of economies such as those of Germany, Japan and later China, providing the world’s most efficient factories with the requisite demand. How was this growing trade deficit paid for? By the return of around 70 per cent of the profits made by foreign corporates to Wall Street, to be invested in America’s financial markets.
As a percentage of global income, the planet’s total savings are at a world record level while aggregate investment is at its lowest.
Are these statements true? No doubt a large share went to the US, but surely not anything like 70%? (I'd google it myself, but i'm unsure what i'd be searching for) Are "total savings" really at a world record level?

Other than that I think i'll give this Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 a chance and look into it.
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...ing-for-the-worlds-progressives-a7416016.html
Could have posted this in a number of threads but i'm posting it here because I have questions on 2 parts:


Are these statements true? No doubt a large share went to the US, but surely not anything like 70%? (I'd google it myself, but i'm unsure what i'd be searching for) Are "total savings" really at a world record level?

Other than that I think i'll give this Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 a chance and look into it.
The second one wouldn't surprise me.