Trump and Brexit: What has happened to the world?

Thought this summary from the FT was bang on:

Behold the bonfire of the certainties. In combination with June’s Brexit vote, the political reaction that many assumed would hit in 2009 has finally come to pass. The US wants to reverse globalisation, as does the UK, while France, Germany and Italy all have a chance to upend the status quo at the ballot box in the coming months.


The certainties that had reassured the investors and financiers since the era of Thatcher and Reagan and that are now in question include a global commitment to free trade, independent central banks, a financialised version of capitalism, and relatively limited social safety nets. Although many of those voting for British exit from the EU, and for a Donald Trump presidency, have a deep distrust of governments, the likely result is more interventionist governments.

Mr Trump’s unpredictable character adds a layer of uncertainty. As President Barack Obama argued, to no avail, it is worrying when someone who will now have control of the nuclear codes cannot be trusted with their own Twitter account. This uncertainty will itself damage securities prices and shake confidence.

In the broader picture, the result should not have been a surprise. Back in 2008, as the financial crisis broke, many thought a political crisis would ensue within months. The surprise is that the denouement has been so long delayed.

Blaming central bankers, as many of the people behind the UK and US populist revolts tend to do, misses the point. The loose monetary policies of the last eight years helped deepen inequality by raising the wealth of those who already had assets, without breathing sufficient life into the US or UK economy.

But central bankers were following these policies to buy time for politicians. Necessary action — whether it was a big programme of infrastructure investment or a painful structural reform — has not been forthcoming. Central banks have looked increasingly uncomfortable with their new role.

For the next few days, we can expect to follow the “Brexit playbook”. A big sell-off of US assets is a given, as is a subsequent bounce. Emerging markets will be a particular victim due to their dependence on trade. They appeared to be at the beginning of a renaissance; that is now in question. Markets tend to overshoot, and this will produce some buying opportunities and bargains.

Only once Mr Trump is in office will a clear direction be set. The first item on the agenda is the Federal Reserve. The market sell-off should force the Fed not to go through with raising rates next month. A move to curb the Fed’s independence, or an exit by chairwoman Janet Yellen, could create alarm.

After that, it is over to President Trump. The range of outcomes is huge. An aggressive fiscal expansion — such as slashing corporate tax — would presumably pass the Republican House. That could raise inflation, but might well cheer asset markets.

Meanwhile, the tariff war he often promised in the campaign would be unalloyedly negative for capital markets — and this is an area where the president has relatively great freedom to act, without reference to Congress.

So in historical terms, the range of possibilities goes from the early Reagan years (when a great bull market took root), to the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs that followed the 1929 crash. Extreme volatility is certain.

What is undeniable is a deep pessimism and anger within the electorate. A famous work of stock market history is called Triumph of the Optimists; it argues that the second half of the 20th century, with the rebirth of Germany and Japan, the peaceful end of the cold war, and widening free trade, was a triumph for those who looked to the future optimistically at mid-century.

Markets peaked at the end of 1999. The advances from 1950 to 2000 then taken for granted are now in doubt. As certainties disappear, this election marks the triumph of the market pessimists.
 
Why am I not surprised by this outcome

The same type of voters voted for Trump as for Brexit.
A large portion of which are white, older generation, poorly educated and/or xenophobic who feel disenfranchised, there are also idealists and those that reject the status quo and think for some reason the grass is greener on the other side.

2017 will show if these advocates of "change" will start to fulfil what they promised, The Brexiters have not started very well, see how far Trump gets.
Of course when things start to go wrong it will be someone else's fault.

When things don't go the way those who voted for Trump or Brexit expect, what happens then?

The question you should be more afraid of is, what happens if things go the way they expected?
 
Which would be all fine and dandy if Trump had proposed a 'proper debate' on immigration but everything he said on the topic is demonstrably racist.

FWIW I think the 'can't talk about immigration without being seen as racist' line of thinking is terribly overstated.
Very much this.
I'm actually so so SO fecking sick and tired of hearing this same "argument" over and over again. People who just say plain open racist stuff but when you say that they get all worked up and talk about others telling them what to think. I mean seriously WTF? Same goes for sexism and all the other stuff.
 
Cost of housing and zero hour contracts, just 2 things that have the power to financially cripple people. Up until Mike Ashley was revealed to be running a sweat shop nothing tangible was being done about either. Labour, Tory and Lib Dems all helped to clear the path for these things and sat back and watched as they proliferated. Even now I can name you 3 places of work that match pretty accurately to the descriptions of Ashley's setup (don't worry redcafe lawyers I won't). There was a UN report just days ago highlighting disability rights violations by the UK government in relation to benefits.

Whether these are decisive factors or not in pushing people away from the mainstream I can't be sure, or if there is enough of these desperate people to make an electorial difference, but let's not pretend that some people are not being brutalised under the rule of our current status quo governments. How can you expect these poor bastards to just go back and vote for Cameron, Blair, Clinton, when these types helped put them there in the first place.

Anyway that's me and politics done again till the next big craze, I don't have the mentality for this (or the genuine fear that it would lead to me lying in a bathtub with opened veins). I'm off to watch cartoons.
 
The choice to not vote for an ultra right-wing sociopathic idiot?

So they voted for a Billionaire who has a rich father and they were both part of the establishment... Yep makes perfect sense lol!

But trump is exactly the opposite of that. A tax dodging white billionaire. The anti-establishment rhetoric fails to consider that..

You're all right in that the choice is there, but put yourself in their shoes - to them, Clinton is the face of the establishment. She's a career politician. For those who voted, they didn't want another politician. Trump's background marks him as an outsider, and so to them, it's a chance of not having "more of the same".

I don't know if everyone knows how bad it is in the "Rust Belt" of the USA - think the destruction of the working class in the UK in the 80s, but at a slower rate and a much higher population figure involved. There are a lot people there who aren't dumb (along with people who are, but as I said, dumb people alone cannot carry unpopular decisions to a majority), they just want a better life. I doubt many like Trump, but to them, it's a protest. Again, it's not too different from Brexit.

Just can't shake the feeling Bernie would've walked this and today would have been an incredible day towards a new future, instead... :(
I believe that too - unfortunately his party threw him under a bus.
 
The chances that either of these events happening, would have greatly diminished if the Democrats had a stronger candidate than Clinton and if the leader of the Labour Party was not a limp piece of celery like Corbyn.

The Americans get can rid of Trump in 4 years time. Brexit is for at least a generation.
 
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People just got sick of how the establishment is running things.

The wealth of the world's richest 1% equals to the other 99%, and every year the gap keep increasing. Its fecking ridiculous, and that have been happening under democrats and republicans, right and left governments, so people is waking up to the scam that their democracy was not a real democracy.

Hillary is the only reason Trump won. She is the official mascot, the political face of the establishment. People is fed up with them.

If Bernie had ran, he would have won this shit.

2020 is the chance for a third party runner to take over.
What I don't quite understand, is how can this be combated by a nation who are so vehemently against any form of socialism? Surely the obvious go to solution of tax the rich and give it to the poor, is totally contrary to the principles their nation was built on?
 
Well now you're going down the Sam Harris route of there being no such thing as free will. An interesting philosophical debate but taken to its logical conclusion society has no right to punish rapists or paedophiles. So let's not go there.

You are right, we are not far from such philosophical debates. However, I would argue that they are relevant in understanding the situation. As for your objection, the logical implication would be that rapists or paedophiles cannot be held morally responsible for their actions. The society might still find it useful to take measures in order to protect the rest of society (but without the moral component in the sentence, you would not "punish" the rapist as some evil being). But you are right, this might take us far from the issue at hand.

I was being a bit glib tbf. Mainly because I'm a fan of Sam Harris's theory. And @Werewolf 's point was reasonable. I still think it's a cop out to imply that anyone was "forced" to vote for Trump, no matter how dire their circumstances.

Yes I agree.
I just think that if people keep dismissing it instead of trying to understand it, its only going to get worse.

I would argue the exact opposite. Finding out the factors which explain the voters' decision plays a huge part in understanding it. When all the factors are taken into account, you would have nothing left to argue that the voters' were not "forced" to vote for Trump. Granted the factors might be numerous and complex to analyze, but they can all be given in terms of genetics or environment which are ultimately not the result of the voters' decision. On the other hand, saying that the Trump's voters could have "chosen" otherwise might push us to discard their decisions as mere "choices", which frankly is something that seems obscure to me (you would have to argue how the basis of such "choice" can come from anything other than genetics/environment).

To sum up, understanding how the voters' were "forced" to vote for Trump allows us to : (1) leave out accusations or blame which might block any discussion, (2) analyze the factors to hopefully grasp what exactly lead to the current situation.
 
Random points:
1. Every Dem (including Clinton) has done well (solid majorities) among union households in the rust belt as compared to non-union families of people doing the same jobs.
You can see what unionised workers thought of Trump's attempts to win them over here, and, significantly, what they thought of Hillary.
“In all reality, I see Trump as an opportunist,” said Robert James, 57, a forklift driver at Carrier.

“He’s full of shit,” Tay Walker, 52, another Carrier worker, told me.

“I don’t think he’s for the people,” said Ron Terry, 60, who has worked in shipping and receiving at the plant for 17 years. “He’s for his pockets.”

“He’s a loudmouthed fraud,” said Frank Staples, 37, an-11-year veteran at Carrier.

In fact, in a dozen interviews with Carrier workers at the rally, members of United Steelworkers Local 1999, I couldn’t find a single Trump supporter, though workers told me they existed. “There are a few people out there that support him,” Staples said. But by and large, they see in Trump the same kind of corporate greed that led Carrier executives to outsource their own jobs.

“His own clothes come from China,” Staples said. “He’s talking about American workers. There’s 1,400 people losing their jobs at Carrier. He could employ 1,000 people making his clothes. Bring his company to Indiana. Bring something that’s not going to fail to Indiana. Everything he’s ever ran has [fallen]. His airline fell. He got kicked out of his own Miss America pageant. I mean, come on. The Apprentice fell. He’s a reality star.”

Trump loves Carrier. Turns out, many Carrier workers don’t love him back.
...
Even if Sanders cedes the nomination battle to Clinton, and Clinton faces Trump in the general, he won’t vote for Trump. “I will probably end up writing Bernie in,” he said. “I hope he runs as an independent if he doesn’t get the nomination.”


2. The wealth gap showing that "it can't be poor people's resentment" is misleading.
A lot of the margin Clinton had in the lowest income brackets would be through minorities. For it to remain even vaguely competitive, it means a hefty polarisation for Trump among poor whites.
However, these things are certainly true: the rich are more likely to vote Republican; if 2 people have the same money but different education, the more educated one goes Democratic.

3. Trade: Trump was more hated than her in WI. He won because of trade. If you trust the exit poll numbers (CNN), it's clearly visible.

4. Racism: the exit polls skirt around the question and ask it indirectly. "Do you think in the US today, a. whites are running things? b. minorities are running things?" In FL and NC a and b both were about 15-20% of the electorate, of which the voters went 95-5 in the direction you'd expect them to.
 
"White people in majority white country having a say is a problem"
To paraphrase the words of so many right now

It's not white people having a say that's a problem (that would be absurd), but when us white people begin to actively vote for a candidate who is running on a White Nationalist platform who may want to suppress non-whites, then there's a major problem that needs to be addressed.
 
It's not white people having a say that's a problem (that would be absurd), but when us white people begin to actively vote for a candidate who is running on a White Nationalist platform who may want to suppress non-whites, then there's a major problem that needs to be addressed.

Firstly, it's not white people like us. I don't know you and I have nothing in common with you. I'm an individualist, and don't perceive any connection between people because they share a similar color of skin.
Secondly, there was no white nationalist platform, and there's no suppression of non-whites.
Thirdly, is it a problem that the majority want to benefit though? Isn't that how we decide ethics and morality in the first place, it's what the majority want.
And finally, even if what you said was true, it doesn't change the absolute garbage spouted by many about whites being a problem and white people deciding the vote and that somehow being bad.
 
At the very least you can't trust numbers from places like CNN. They've been demonstrably wrong about everything.

These numbers have been consistent throughout the election, and agree with interviews of Trump supporters too.
 
Enjoy your winnings. The fact you think these events leave you richer because you won chump change off a bookie speaks volumes.

Don't be jealous. It's unbecoming and speaks volumes alongside your usual pontificating.
 
Media goes a lot further than the Daily Mail and The Sun, and a lot of it is heavily and vocally left leaning.

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Sun, Mail, Mirror.
 
Still, put yourself in their shoes for a moment. Some guy in middle america living in a town that has gone through the shitter because its local factory / mine or whatever closed down. The town relied on this pretty much 100%

If some guy was promising to fix this, I would at least give him the time of day
There's an old saying, 'watch out when someone makes you an offer that seems too good to be true as it usually is.'
 
The fact that people like you automatically assume and label people that disagree with you are stupid or racist.
That's a huge part of your answer. People are sick of being told what to think and who they should be by people who believe they're better than them.

There's a difference between thinking all Trump supporters are stupid and racist and pointing out that a large amount of his supporters are exactly that. The KKK backing him is hardly a plus.

Labelling those who think differently to you as racists and idiots is never a good way to get them on your side.

Neither is ignoring the problem. There are reasons for voting for Trump but I haven't seen any rational ones put forward aside from "he's not Clinton". Every other argument is either irrational (e.g. "Clinton is worse", "he's a great businessman") or based primarily on a fear of not living in the early 1900s anymore (e.g. "Make America Great Again") and that's coming from someone who is normally critical of the people most commonly referred to as SJWs.

It's wrong to boil all this down to race and ignorance but wrong to ignore that it was a large part of it. It was a mixture of idiots, racists, diehard Republicans and desperate people who opted for the unknown.
 
Firstly, it's not white people like us. I don't know you and I have nothing in common with you. I'm an individualist, and don't perceive any connection between people because they share a similar color of skin.
Secondly, there was no white nationalist platform, and there's no suppression of non-whites.
Thirdly, is it a problem that the majority want to benefit though? Isn't that how we decide ethics and morality in the first place, it's what the majority want.
And finally, even if what you said was true, it doesn't change the absolute garbage spouted by many about whites being a problem and white people deciding the vote and that somehow being bad.

You mean the man who stated he wants to ban Muslims from the US, who consistently said Mexicans are criminals and rapists, who was endorsed by the KKK, who continued to challenge the birthplace of a non-white President quite clearly because of his skin colour, and who has regularly incited racial hatred was not running on a white nationalist platform, to any degree? Come off it.
 
How about no vote? You don't get to vote for the first 18 years of your life, so apply the same rule to the last 10 years of the average life span in a given country.

Silly line of argument. Older people have much more experience of life and, more importantly, many will have been around before we joined the EU so they can give an accurate judgment about what its like not to be part of it versus being part of it. I think their opinion is much more valid than the younger population - many of whom couldnt be bothered to turn out to cast their vote. People need to have some respect for the people who have lived through more than they have.
 
You mean the man who stated he wants to ban Muslims from the US, who consistently said Mexicans are criminals and rapists, who was endorsed by the KKK, who continued to challenge the birthplace of a non-white President quite clearly because of his skin colour, and who has regularly incited racial hatred was not running on a white nationalist platform, to any degree? Come off it.

- Islam isn't a race. Anyone can be a Muslim. Clearly not racist
- Some Mexicans are rapists and criminals. He didn't say all of them are, he also didn't consistently say anything negative about Mexicans. He was consistently anti-illegal immigration though. Which has nothing to do with race
-Who cares who endorses him. Saudi Arabia and Qatar support Hillary, so her supporters must love corporal punishment, honor killings and hate gays right? RIGHT?
-Lots of people questioned Obama's place of birth. Some of the people who did so could be racist. So? Do you have proof that anyone who did is racist? No you don't. Trump also takes the piss all the time. Take it with a grain of salt. People could also openly question the birth place of white presidents if they doubted they were born in the US, rightly or wrongly.
-Trump didn't incite racial hatred. No one running for president is going around inciting racial hatred.
 
- Islam isn't a race. Anyone can be a Muslim. Clearly not racist
- Some Mexicans are rapists and criminals. He didn't say all of them are, he also didn't consistently say anything negative about Mexicans. He was consistently anti-illegal immigration though. Which has nothing to do with race
-Who cares who endorses him. Saudi Arabia and Qatar support Hillary, so her supporters must love corporal punishment, honor killings and hate gays right? RIGHT?
-Lots of people questioned Obama's place of birth. Some of the people who did so could be racist. So? Do you have proof that anyone who did is racist? No you don't. Trump also takes the piss all the time. Take it with a grain of salt. People could also openly question the birth place of white presidents if they doubted they were born in the US, rightly or wrongly.
-Trump didn't incite racial hatred. No one running for president is going around inciting racial hatred.


This must be a piss-take post right @Swaters16 ?
 
Silly line of argument. Older people have much more experience of life and, more importantly, many will have been around before we joined the EU so they can give an accurate judgment about what its like not to be part of it versus being part of it. I think their opinion is much more valid than the younger population - many of whom couldnt be bothered to turn out to cast their vote. People need to have some respect for the people who have lived through more than they have.

You sound like a Liverpool supporter.

I disagree that older people shouldn't be allowed to vote btw. But to suggest their opinion is more valid than others is laughable.
 
Silly line of argument. Older people have much more experience of life and, more importantly, many will have been around before we joined the EU so they can give an accurate judgment about what its like not to be part of it versus being part of it. I think their opinion is much more valid than the younger population - many of whom couldnt be bothered to turn out to cast their vote. People need to have some respect for the people who have lived through more than they have.

Just because you have lived a long life don´t make people wise or more intelligent. It is a fact that Britain was far worse of economically pre EU than after and also a lot of old people always remember the good times and forget how hard it was. A lot of elderly in Britain voted brexit without even knowing the basics of how EU functions and what laws are entirely made by their own parliament. They ignore all logical arguments and just decided to go with the Braveheart approach ( a lot did, but not all granted ).... FREEEEDOM! that is not wise or an intelligent way to deal with complicated issues.
 
Facebook has more users seeing it's news feed than all those combined, then doubled, and more.

Are you saying Facebook is left leaning?

Silly line of argument. Older people have much more experience of life and, more importantly, many will have been around before we joined the EU so they can give an accurate judgment about what its like not to be part of it versus being part of it. I think their opinion is much more valid than the younger population - many of whom couldnt be bothered to turn out to cast their vote. People need to have some respect for the people who have lived through more than they have.

1. Old people have more experience of life but that doesn't make them smarter or mean they make better choices. They're also more likely to be nostalgic or vote based on fear of a changing world (how often does that work out?).

2. There are so many other factors that have changed the UK over the last 43 years that believing you can tell the effect the EU has had just by being around for that time is a huge stretch.

3. Young people that didn't vote don't make the ones that did less important or their views less valid.

4. "People need to have some respect for the people who have lived through more than they have." - Why? How about having respect for the next generation who have decades ahead of them?
 
Silly line of argument. Older people have much more experience of life and, more importantly, many will have been around before we joined the EU so they can give an accurate judgment about what its like not to be part of it versus being part of it. I think their opinion is much more valid than the younger population - many of whom couldnt be bothered to turn out to cast their vote. People need to have some respect for the people who have lived through more than they have.

Turnout was almost identical across all age ranges.
 
You sound like a Liverpool supporter.

I disagree that older people shouldn't be allowed to vote btw. But to suggest their opinion is more valid than others is laughable.
Everyone's opinion is of equal value, we need to move away from this "young people have more to lose/old people have more experience" line.

Baby Boomers like me (and there are a lot of us) hope to still have a good number of years left to live and therefore decisions made about the future of our country are very important. I can also understand why people just starting out in life feel aggrieved, but I'm afraid being young doesn't make your opinion more valuable than that of someone in their 50, 60s or whatever.

All I can say is that having been around and doorstep-campaigned for us to join the EEC when I was a teenager in the 1970s, my sense of loss is just as great as someone who's never known a Pre-Europe UK.
 
What part of it was taking the piss?
It's all true.

To say "some Mexicans ARE rapists and murderers so it's alright to say what he said because it's just the truth" is the biggest load of bollocks I've heard in a long time.

He said "they're not sending us their best, they're sending their rapists and murderers" and it's a fecking disgusting, racist, xenophobic thing to say.
 
The effects of the political climate around the world will be absolutely devestating, to me there's very little doubt about that. This election result is not the final nail in the coffin, but we're getting very close now. It looks like everything is falling down slowly but steadily while no one can really stop it, as a matter of fact there's so much damage that has been done this during this year with many people hardly realising it happened. Devestation as an end result is hardly a bold prediction by the way, and it's not doom mongering either, when looking back at history and the enormous ammounts of unsolved big societal problems of the last decades.

What can you do against this mechanism? Is there something to be done, should something be done? I'm still not sure, and I've been fascinated by this concept long before I ever went to law school, and even after finishing and thinking about these type of subjects for years I still don't really have an answer. It's a given that history will repeat itself, that's about the safest bet you can ever make. Things go well - relatively speaking - then they fall down, and usually they have to fall all the way down before they can be built up again. It's an endless loop, that seems to be as old as nature itself.

In the end I guess, while there's not much that can be done, you can always do a little bit. First by realising how lucky you sometimes are, to be doing what you while living where you are living, and not taking that for granted. Never give up the fight, that's a good start too. And I don't mean that in an idealistic or political way at all, feck idealism and most definitely double feck politics. If you think you know what's right and what's wrong, don't talk too much about it. Talk is cheap, the only thing you honestly should interested in is in walking the actual walk.

Do something about it (and please forgive me for my hollow phrasing). You're not helping the world by donating 5cts of your purchase at H&M to Unicef, going to some outdated protest, or by getting angry and dissappointed at the news of people making silly decisions. Just try to think of a concrete problem in your life, see if you can help yourself, someone else and then do it. If you succeed, don't be happy. Try to do more, you can always do more. And try not to care abou whether your efforts get appreciation. Then maybe you can help the world a little bit. not much perhaps, but at least something will be more than nothing.

On a sidenote, I can't actually believe I just wrote this, and I hope no one actually reads it. Normally I'd probably rather literally kill myself than resort to these type of shallow points and fake idealistic logic that doesn't really say or change anything.

But today is a very historic day, it's a date to remember for always, and not for good reasons.
 
To say "some Mexicans ARE rapists and murderers so it's alright to say what he said because it's just the truth" is the biggest load of bollocks I've heard in a long time.

He said "they're not sending us their best, they're sending their rapists and murderers" and it's a fecking disgusting, racist, xenophobic thing to say.

My favourite bit was when he said Trump is definitely not inciting racial hatred because... he's running for president. Um. Ok.
 
Everyone's opinion is of equal value, we need to move away from this "young people have more to lose/old people have more experience" line.

Baby Boomers like me (and there are a lot of us) hope to still have a good number of years left to live and therefore decisions made about the future of our country are very important. I can also understand why people just starting out in life feel aggrieved, but I'm afraid being young doesn't make your opinion more valuable than that of someone in their 50, 60s or whatever.

All I can say is that having been around and doorstep-campaigned for us to join the EEC when I was a teenager in the 1970s, my sense of loss is just as great as someone who's never known a Pre-Europe UK.

Exactly my point. If we step away from that we're stepping into dangerous ground.