Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Paul the Wolf]

Anyone who uses terms like remoaner is seriously nowhere above 5-year-olds in terms of brain activity. Those that use the term and proclaim to support democracy are hypocrites on top of everything else.

Not only that, he claims to have voted Remain himself and is apparently willing to accept without complaint of all the shite that's going to come the Uk's way and complain about other remainers moaning because they realise what's going to happen .

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't want to shock your view of the world but have you ever thought about that the UK, as most countries, do need to import lots of goods first in order to manufacture something that can be exported? And that those goods that need to be exported are more expensive as the pound drops?

It's baffling how in 2017 some people still believe this one-sided BS that Brexiters spread.

To be fair, a lot of people who voted Leave were just agreeing with Michael Gove. They're sick and tired of exports.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Sure we need to import but the fact is not every nation is pro EU and it stands to reason that would help us because they want the same thing. There is ALWAYS a counter argument equally as strong. Any country that is against the EU and it's dictatorship (What difference is a single person dictator and this EU? That can dictate to nations? It's a form of...dictatorship)...But ultimately the Uk will have allies. This monopoly will be broken and for the betterment of every nation. So that every nation can stand up for itself. Nations are being destroyed because you cannot see the bigger picture. Think bigger....Why are nations being flooded by immigration? Why are we seemingly always at war when most people don't want war? Think bigger...Sometimes you have to go backwards, because sometimes you have to know when you are being fecked and only an idiot would keep walking into it. There are bigger issues here and people in 2017 should learn some home truths. For example - why should there be debt on our money? Who makes our money? You control money, you control nations....Who do you think is in charge? The people are meant to be and we're not and neither are the governments. If they were, they wouldn't be in fecking debt would they. You only get into debt if you are government if you are stupid or controlled. As tempting as the former is, that's not the answer.

Nurse! We need to up the meds here. Let's go with twice daily.

 

[Bury Red]

If you give it out you really shouldn't be complaining about receiving it, it seems so weak and hypocritical.

Remoaners is a term of endearment compared the shite remainers called everyone who voted leave or even contemplated doing so. I voted remain but I like to be consistent in terminology. If you are a remoaner you reaped what you now sow even if you just can't take it.

We held a referendum to decide whether the UK stayed in the EU or left the EU. The UK voted to leave. I think that people like me are the mainstay of democracy because even though I got out voted I row in behind the decision wish it all the best.

It might be wrong, it might be right but remoaners are going to remoan or perhaps it is more like The Ramones.

That's the problem though, we're reaping what others sowed and we're still of the opinion that the simpletons that voted out were planting the three magic beans they traded for our cow, why should we take it, why should we not call out the lies and idiocy that put us in this mess whilst it's still democratically possible to prevent Article 50 being triggered, the referendum was a non binding advisory to government after all.

 

[staubsauger]

What difference is a single person dictator and this EU? That can dictate to nations? It's a form of a dictatorship.

I'd say the most important differences between a dictator and the EU are the need for consensus and the right to veto.

 

[Dobba]

Sure we need to import but the fact is not every nation is pro EU and it stands to reason that would help us because they want the same thing. There is ALWAYS a counter argument equally as strong. Any country that is against the EU and it's dictatorship (What difference is a single person dictator and this EU? That can dictate to nations? It's a form of...dictatorship)...But ultimately the Uk will have allies. This monopoly will be broken and for the betterment of every nation. So that every nation can stand up for itself. Nations are being destroyed because you cannot see the bigger picture. Think bigger....Why are nations being flooded by immigration? Why are we seemingly always at war when most people don't want war? Think bigger...Sometimes you have to go backwards, because sometimes you have to know when you are being fecked and only an idiot would keep walking into it. There are bigger issues here and people in 2017 should learn some home truths. For example - why should there be debt on our money? Who makes our money? You control money, you control nations....Who do you think is in charge? The people are meant to be and we're not and neither are the governments. If they were, they wouldn't be in fecking debt would they. You only get into debt if you are government if you are stupid or controlled. As tempting as the former is, that's not the answer.

Open your eyes sheeple. It's not the EU that is controlling the government, it's the lizard people.

 

[Sweet Square]

Worth a watch

 

[Will Absolute]

You do realise that we still haven't left? That this is just a small bubble on current stock that is more attractive to overseas buyers because of the currency devaluation? That when the currency devalues we get less for our money on imports? Which leads to cost-push inflation? Which leads to prices rises? Which is bad for ivestment? Which is bad for savings? It could also lead to hyperinflation? Or even stagflation?

And the sky could fall on our heads. What's to be expected is a small (2% to 3%), one-off rise in UK prices as higher import costs kick in. Stagflation or hyperinflation are not so easily triggered, and certainly not in the present deflationary economic conditions.

We're already seeing a rise in British exports in the wake of the pounds fall. This should provide a boost to economic growth and lower unemployment. The immediate impact should be higher growth, lower unemployment and a drop in the standard of living of those already in employment who don't negotiate wage increases to compensate for the increased cost of living.

Pre-referendum, most economists believed the pound was greatly overvalued, and a decade long current account deficit provides definitive support for that view. Most experts, not rabidly anti-Brexit, agree that the pound's fall was in itself a long overdue and natural adjustment.

Remember that some of the world's most prosperous countries made a living keeping their currencies artificially low. During their periods of greatest post-war growth, Germany and Japan were notorious for holding down the values of the mark and the yen. Devaluation is not a national disaster; as Ireland showed in the late 1980s, the competitive edge of a low currency can be worth its weight in gold.

 

[devilish]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...gn-office-despiar-civil-servant-a7509181.html

He wrote: “The Foreign Office is reported to be in despair over Boris Johnson: he is, apparently, not reading his briefs, not providing clear guidance for his officials, alienating other EU foreign ministers whose goodwill we will need to a successful negotiated exit, and failing to hammer out any framework for Britain’s future foreign policy towards Europe.”

Lord Wallace went on to say that while David Davis has “a better reputation” he had also been told that visitors seeing the minister were warned to only say positive things about Brexit.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

I don't want to shock your view of the world but have you ever thought about that the UK, as most countries, do need to import lots of goods first in order to manufacture something that can be exported? And that those goods that need to be exported are more expensive as the pound drops?

It's baffling how in 2017 some people still believe this one-sided BS that Brexiters spread.

Whats baffling is this,

The drop in the economic indicator I am quoting from the BBC site post the Brexit vote had all kinds of negative implications when it suited the remoaners to do their doom and gloom remoaning on this very thread, if memory serves.

Then the uptick in the very same economic indicator doesn't mean anything and shouldn't be mentioned at all. One sided BS indeed.

There is no lack of doom mongers on this thread, so I will continue to address the one sided nature of this discussion when I see positive indicators especially when we still don't know which way this is going to go.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Construction closes the year out expanding at the fastest rate for 9 months.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38505221

 

[Ultimate Grib]

And the sky could fall on our heads. What's to be expected is a small (2% to 3%), one-off rise in UK prices as higher import costs kick in. Stagflation or hyperinflation are not so easily triggered, and certainly not in the present deflationary economic conditions.

We're already seeing a rise in British exports in the wake of the pounds fall. This should provide a boost to economic growth and lower unemployment. The immediate impact should be higher growth, lower unemployment and a drop in the standard of living of those already in employment who don't negotiate wage increases to compensate for the increased cost of living.

Pre-referendum, most economists believed the pound was greatly overvalued, and a decade long current account deficit provides definitive support for that view. Most experts, not rabidly anti-Brexit, agree that the pound's fall was in itself a long overdue and natural adjustment.

Remember that some of the world's most prosperous countries made a living keeping their currencies artificially low. During their periods of greatest post-war growth, Germany and Japan were notorious for holding down the values of the mark and the yen. Devaluation is not a national disaster; as Ireland showed in the late 1980s, the competitive edge of a low currency can be worth its weight in gold.

Well you're wrong in the first instance because Tesco and Sainsburys have already announced 5-10% price increases to be expected which is way more than the 2-3% you claim.

Exports have gone up in the short term because its cheaper to buy them from abroad after the devaluation but they will go down again because it will cost more to import the materials required for manufacturing so the price of goods will rise which will mean domestic buying power will fall.

We didn't see wage increases during stable and prosperous economic years so doubt there will be any during periods of uncertainty. And as for unemployment well it only takes one big business to take their operations abroad and leave thousands unemployed which will most definitely happen if we don't stay in the single market. Getting favourable deals is out of question because negotiations cannot be concluded within the two years that Article 50 allows so single market will be key for a lot of corporations.

Gradual devaluation is not that bad although I personally prefer to have more buying power for my pounds but when you get instant drops of 20% like when the Brexit vote happened that sends shockwaves through the economy wiping trillions of British companies. It also plunges us in a period of uncertainty which can lead to flash crashes like the one in October where the pound fell to its lowest point since 1985. The trigger for that flash crash were indications that Britian was heading for a hard Brexit. Then pound rallied again when Brexit minister hinted that we could stay in tye single market. Uncertainty is never good in economy as it drains investment.

I do agree with you that hyperinflation and stagflation are not triggered easily. It would take a catastrophic downturn of events for the economy to take a big enough hit to possibly trigger them. Something like a hard Brexit.

 

[Stanley Road]

The question i have is after exiting, will i be able to buy english bacon back home that doesnt say 'produce of holland'?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The question i have is after exiting, will i be able to buy english bacon back home that doesnt say 'produce of holland'?

I thought the English liked Danish Bacon

 

[Stanley Road]

I thought the English liked Danish Bacon

Me and a mate were laughing about ot cos we cant get bacon like that in the supermarket here, you have to go to the butcher for it.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Me and a mate were laughing about ot cos we cant get bacon like that in the supermarket here, you have to go to the butcher for it.

This will make you laugh, photo's from 1968

Spoiler: bacon

 

[Stanley Road]

Lol

 

[Stanley Road]

Finally, stricter border controls on InterLand transport

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archiv...pping-up-border-controls-after-berlin-attack/

 

[Will Absolute]

Well you're wrong in the first instance because Tesco and Sainsburys have already announced 5-10% price increases to be expected which is way more than the 2-3% you claim.

Exports have gone up in the short term because its cheaper to buy them from abroad after the devaluation but they will go down again because it will cost more to import the materials required for manufacturing so the price of goods will rise which will mean domestic buying power will fall.

We didn't see wage increases during stable and prosperous economic years so doubt there will be any during periods of uncertainty. And as for unemployment well it only takes one big business to take their operations abroad and leave thousands unemployed which will most definitely happen if we don't stay in the single market. Getting favourable deals is out of question because negotiations cannot be concluded within the two years that Article 50 allows so single market will be key for a lot of corporations.

Gradual devaluation is not that bad although I personally prefer to have more buying power for my pounds but when you get instant drops of 20% like when the Brexit vote happened that sends shockwaves through the economy wiping trillions of British companies. It also plunges us in a period of uncertainty which can lead to flash crashes like the one in October where the pound fell to its lowest point since 1985. The trigger for that flash crash were indications that Britian was heading for a hard Brexit. Then pound rallied again when Brexit minister hinted that we could stay in tye single market. Uncertainty is never good in economy as it drains investment.

I do agree with you that hyperinflation and stagflation are not triggered easily. It would take a catastrophic downturn of events for the economy to take a big enough hit to possibly trigger them. Something like a hard Brexit.

I was making a crude estimate of the overall change in the cost of living, or inflation blip, to be expected after a devaluation of the currency.

Britain currently imports about 29% of its goods and services.

Roughly 50% of her imports come from the EU - that's about 15% of everything British people buy. The pound is currently down about 6% against the Euro; if all of that increase in the sterling cost of goods imported from the Eurozone was passed on to the British consumer (which won't happen because of market pressures) a cost of living increase of 15% X .06 = .9% would be expected. That's less than a 1% rise in the cost of living from the impact on Britain of increased prices for half of her imports. That's on the assumption that all the price changes resulting from devaluation are passed on - which, as I've already said, is not going to happen.

14% of Britain's imports come from the US. That's about .14 x .29 = 4% of everything British people buy. The pound has dropped about 14% against the dollar. Under the same assumptions as above, this results in an inflation blip of .14 X .04 = .5%.

Accounting for Britain's two major trading partners, Europe and America, from which about two thirds of her imports are drawn, this gives an inflationary effect of .9 + .5 = 1.4%, under worse case conditions. If an equivalent calculation is done for Britain's other trading partners, accounting for the remaining third of her imports, I think you'll find my 2% to 3% estimate was a good first approximation, even if it was a little pessimistic.

 

[Mozza]

Oil is traded in dollars which you need to factor into the price of almost everything

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Luckily the UK is self-sufficient for 71% of it's goods and services and the pound won't devalue considerably more if they hard Brexit...umm, no, that's not right, is it?

 

[Simbo]

You may as well treat that remaining 34% of imports as Dollars too. The vast majority of goods bought from ROW is paid for in USD. Then you probably won't be far out.

Oil imports are probably factored into that 29%? No different than any other commodity really.

 

[Ultimate Grib]

I was making a crude estimate of the overall change in the cost of living, or inflation blip, to be expected after a devaluation of the currency.

Britain currently imports about 29% of its goods and services.

Roughly 50% of her imports come from the EU - that's about 15% of everything British people buy. The pound is currently down about 6% against the Euro; if all of that increase in the sterling cost of goods imported from the Eurozone was passed on to the British consumer (which won't happen because of market pressures) a cost of living increase of 15% X .06 = .9% would be expected. That's less than a 1% rise in the cost of living from the impact on Britain of increased prices for half of her imports. That's on the assumption that all the price changes resulting from devaluation are passed on - which, as I've already said, is not going to happen.

14% of Britain's imports come from the US. That's about .14 x .29 = 4% of everything British people buy. The pound has dropped about 14% against the dollar. Under the same assumptions as above, this results in an inflation blip of .14 X .04 = .5%.

Accounting for Britain's two major trading partners, Europe and America, from which about two thirds of her imports are drawn, this gives an inflationary effect of .9 + .5 = 1.4%, under worse case conditions. If an equivalent calculation is done for Britain's other trading partners, accounting for the remaining third of her imports, I think you'll find my 2% to 3% estimate was a good first approximation, even if it was a little pessimistic.

Erm its not just imports that you will need to factor in to inflation it is all domestic products that require imported goods which includes pretty much all industries that use oil and transport somewhere along the chain.

Oil is just one of the many things that will push prices up and as for your calculations they are based on current exchange rate where Brexit still has not taken place. And as a final note on that your calculation is based only on the inflation caused by currency devaluation and you haven't taken into account normal inflation which was already predicted at the 2% target.

 

[Stanley Road]

Price of oil can feckk off, barrel price comes down 20%, people get 1% reduction.

 

[sun_tzu]

Price of oil can feckk off, barrel price comes down 20%, people get 1% reduction.

Well given that the vast majority of what we pay is the vat and fuel duty on a refined product that has to be shipped around the world, processed and then transported to point of sale it sounds about about right that a drop in the crude price wouldn't necessarily follow through doesn't it?

 

[Will Absolute]

Erm its not just imports that you will need to factor in to inflation it is all domestic products that require imported goods which includes pretty much all industries that use oil and transport somewhere along the chain.

Oil is just one of the many things that will push prices up and as for your calculations they are based on current exchange rate where Brexit still has not taken place. And as a final note on that your calculation is based only on the inflation caused by currency devaluation and you haven't taken into account normal inflation which was already predicted at the 2% target.

That's a little muddled, if I may say so. That 29% import figure includes consumer goods and services, intermediate goods and services, capital goods and services, and raw materials. All inputs into the production of other goods and services, including oil, are taken into account. Nothing is overlooked.

Currencies rise and fall, sometimes by large amounts in short periods. Governments and financial authorities, being creatures of the status quo, often see devaluations in a negative light, but are usually proven wrong. Ireland, for instance, devalued the punt by 10% in 1993, with the Government, in company with the entire financial and business establishment, having fought tooth and nail to avoid it, and instead of being the predicted disaster, the devaluation proved to be a springboard for the most sustained period of economic growth in the nation's history.

 

[GloryHunter07]

For example - why should there be debt on our money? Who makes our money?

What on earth are you talking about?

"Debt on our money"?

Must be one of the most ignorant posts ive read in this whole thread.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

That's a little muddled, if I may say so. That 29% import figure includes consumer goods and services, intermediate goods and services, capital goods and services, and raw materials. All inputs into the production of other goods and services, including oil, are taken into account. Nothing is overlooked.

Currencies rise and fall, sometimes by large amounts in short periods. Governments and financial authorities, being creatures of the status quo, often see devaluations in a negative light, but are usually proven wrong. Ireland, for instance, devalued the punt by 10% in 1993, with the Government, in company with the entire financial and business establishment, having fought tooth and nail to avoid it, and instead of being the predicted disaster, the devaluation proved to be a springboard for the most sustained period of economic growth in the nation's history.

Leaving the ERM had a beneficial effect on the UK economy.

The drop in currency value reduces comparable fixed costs and labour costs, while that might not help when we compare costs with China feck me it helps if your main competitors are in Germany, The Netherlands or France.

If the option is deflation then inflation at 1 or 2 % higher than current isn't all bad either. It encourages spending and devalues debts which almost all developed nations have plenty of. It could lead to higher interest rates but there are plenty of experts saying that the continued very low interest rate policies are damaging.

The big downside of leaving would be if inward investment remained depressed but at the moment it looks like the initial shock is beginning to be overcome.

 

[Stanley Road]

There is a time to listen to experts
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Humans in not being able to predict the future with 100% accuracy shocker.

 

[Stanley Road]

Lol

Experts, we should start listening to them

 

[devilish]

The UK is still part of the EU

 

[Rightnr]

As I keep insisting, Brexiteers' insistence on laughing at what they deem 'false' forecasts, instead of focussing on the core underlying expectations and assumptions just reveals a total lack of knowledge and awareness of economic sciences.

I can compare a conversation on economics with someone who believes in Brexit to arguing with a child who every time you rebuke the point goes on saying nah-nah-nah and sticking their tongue out. You just cannot win even if you know you're right.

 

[Rightnr]

On another note, I noticed 10p increases on two items in my shop yesterday which constitutes anything between 5 to 10% inflation. Those take back control loving people in the north might be in for a nasty wake-up call.

 

[711]

Yes, but only the ones in the North, not the ones anywhere else.

 

[Rightnr]

Well, seeing as they go on about the poor economic conditions in the North compared to the South, you'd think they would feel the impact more heavily. I personally will be fine but it's never nice to see people inflict pain on themselves unknowingly.

I am obviously generalising here.

 

[Stanley Road]

As I keep insisting, Brexiteers' insistence on laughing at what they deem 'false' forecasts, instead of focussing on the core underlying expectations and assumptions just reveals a total lack of knowledge and awareness of economic sciences.

I can compare a conversation on economics with someone who believes in Brexit to arguing with a child who every time you rebuke the point goes on saying nah-nah-nah and sticking their tongue out. You just cannot win even if you know you're right.

It's knowing you are always right that is a problem for remain voters

Did you ever hear the story about the boy who cried wolf? It's a goodn

 

[Stanley Road]

On another note, I noticed 10p increases on two items in my shop yesterday which constitutes anything between 5 to 10% inflation. Those take back control loving people in the north might be in for a nasty wake-up call.

My cigarettes went up by a euro, damn that Brexit

 

[Paul the Wolf]

It's knowing you are always right that is a problem for remain voters

Did you ever hear the story about the boy who cried wolf? It's a goodn

Did you ever hear the story about the Wolf who is always right? It's going to take about 2 or 3 years to prove it but something to look forward to (or not)

 

[Stanley Road]

Did you ever hear the story about the Wolf who is always right? It's going to take about 2 or 3 years to prove it but something to look forward to (or not)

I'll put a note in my diary