Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
MoskvaRed said:
It was only a 4% margin and, being blunt, a fair chunk of those leavers will be dead in the next 10-15 years. It would be a political highwire act but, with Labour currently a circus, I think it is doable without committing political suicide.
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That rate is as big as it is because they believe that leaving the single market is suicide. I believe that the vast majority of the UK are eurosceptic who hate a united Europe. That's fair enough but the EU can't keep on tolerating an 'enemy within' who keeps sending the likes of Farage in the EP and who vetoes any sort of collaboration between EU countries

Brexit will be tough for the EU but its also an opportunity to get rid from a country who never really believed in the project in the first place
 
JPRouve said:
You have not answered the question, the EU isn't a country, every member is sovereign. So how do you take important decisions without having the approval of everyone?
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As someone who's against the idea of the EU, I hardly need to answer that question. In a Europe of nation states, you don't need to answer it.

The problem is simple. Sovereignty can't be shared without being lost. But the EU can't function without shared sovereignty.
 
devilish said:
If the US commands the UK to jump it will keep on jumping till it does of exhaustion. Even now, Boris had to go begging at Trump's feet for a trade deal and that after previously saying that he doesn't go New York because he risk meeting him there.

Eastern Europe should stop provoking Russia by treating Russian speaking citizens differently. Russia is our neighbour and we should respect it. There again, I think Brexit will strengthen their hand rather then weakening it. With the UK having zero influence over Europe, the EU can move to an EU army without risking the veto
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Is that really how they're provoking Russia? Nothing to do with Putins ambitions? And decades/centuries of Russian control and meddling in the area?
 
Silva said:
Is that really how they're provoking Russia? Nothing to do with Putins ambitions?
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I got Eastern European friends, who aren't exactly pro Russian but who claim widespread discrimination in their own country because of their Russian origins. A friend of mine wasn't accepted to a top quality school because she had a Russian surname and that despite being an Estonian citizen + all her family were born there. In matter of fact that's why she moved to the UK
 
JPRouve said:
I was going to tag you, you are right Germany and France are pretty close. I also noticed that German politicians are fairly strict when it comes to EU principles, they will probably be the most difficult to convince.
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With good reason. It is true that the effects of hard Brexit might be the highest in Germany as it is Europe´s biggest economy and heavily focused on export business. However, Germany is also the country which is the most invested in keeping the Union stable for both economical and political reasons. Any preferable deal for Great Britain would had the potential to cause a domino effect of other countries also pushing for the same path, ultimatively splitting the Union in two parts, the richer West and North and the less wealthy South and East.

I actually expect Germany to be the frontrunner in driving a hard bargain in the negotiations. It also helps that the UK government is so without a real plan that it gives at least the large German companies time to prepare for the blow a hard Brexit might bring. The moment the British voted out was the moment the economical focus shifted away from Great Britain, mostly in the Eastern direction.

If GB leaves the single market, they won´t be a different trading partner than let´s say India or China afterall.
 
Will Absolute said:
As someone who's against the idea of the EU, I hardly need to answer that question. In a Europe of nation states, you don't need to answer it.

The problem is simple. Sovereignty can't be shared without being lost. But the EU can't function without shared sovereignty.
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So no single market?
 
devilish said:
I got Eastern European friends, who aren't exactly pro Russian but who claim widespread discrimination in their own country because of their Russian origins. A friend of mine wasn't accepted to a top quality school because she had a Russian surname and that despite being an Estonian citizen + all her family were born there. In matter of fact that's why she moved to the UK
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Sure, but it's not so simple. The USSR was going strong within living memory, after all.
 
Will Absolute said:
That's hardly an anti-Brexit argument. It's a 'Both Germany and Britain have a lot at stake, so let's all be reasonable about a post-Brexit trade agreement argument.'
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If the UK hadn't gone for Brexit there would be no jeopardy so that alone is an anti-Brexit argument. Remember who started this.

On those figures alone who has the most to lose. Yes it doesn't suit anyone but the fault lies where.

Thirdly if it is a hard Brexit, Germany still have trade deals set up with the rest of the EU and other agreements elsewhere. The moment the UK leave the EU under a hard Brexit they have deals with nobody and start all over again.
 
Sphaero said:
With good reason. It is true that the effects of hard Brexit might be the highest in Germany as it is Europe´s biggest economy and heavily focused on export business. However, Germany is also the country which is the most invested in keeping the Union stable for both economical and political reasons. Any preferable deal for Great Britain would had the potential to cause a domino effect of other countries also pushing for the same path, ultimatively splitting the Union in two parts, the richer West and North and the less wealthy South and East.

I actually expect Germany to be the frontrunner in driving a hard bargain in the negotiations. It also helps that the UK government is so without a real plan that it gives at least the large German companies time to prepare for the blow a hard Brexit might bring. The moment the British voted out was the moment the economical focus shifted away from Great Britain, mostly in the Eastern direction.

If GB leaves the single market, they won´t be a different trading partner than let´s say India or China afterall.
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I expect the same. Boris should change completely his strategy, he needs to convince the countries that the UK are currently insulting, those are the countries who are able to convince Germany.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If the UK hadn't gone for Brexit there would be no jeopardy so that alone is an anti-Brexit argument. Remember who started this.

On those figures alone who has the most to lose. Yes it doesn't suit anyone but the fault lies where.

Thirdly if it is a hard Brexit, Germany still have trade deals set up with the rest of the EU and other agreements elsewhere. The moment the UK leave the EU under a hard Brexit they have deals with nobody and start all over again.
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There's no fault. The British people made a sovereign decision to enter the EEC; they've now made a sovereign decision to leave the EU.

The 'deals with nobody' stuff is nonsense. Britain has existing trade relations with countries all over the world. It's not all going to suddenly stop because Britain leaves a trading bloc. The world doesn't work like that.
 
Silva said:
Sure, but it's not so simple. The USSR was going strong within living memory, after all.
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Putin is no saint. However Russia is a powerful neighbour who will never go away. Them poking the bear while thinking the EU will protect them is stupid. For a Union that is so proud with equal rights it should keep the Eastern European countries under check on this especially in terms of citizens of Russian descend and Roma people.
 
Will Absolute said:
There's no fault. The British people made a sovereign decision to enter the EEC; they've now made a sovereign decision to leave the EU.

The 'deals with nobody' stuff is nonsense. Britain has existing trade relations with countries all over the world. It's not all going to suddenly stop because Britain leaves a trading bloc. The world doesn't work like that.
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So they made the decision and that decision brings consequences.
The only trading they could do is through WTO
 
Will Absolute said:
There's no fault. The British people made a sovereign decision to enter the EEC; they've now made a sovereign decision to leave the EU.

The 'deals with nobody' stuff is nonsense. Britain has existing trade relations with countries all over the world. It's not all going to suddenly stop because Britain leaves a trading bloc. The world doesn't work like that.
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The EU deal as a group and once a country leaves the group then those trade deals do not apply anymore. Hence why an independent Scotland can't use the UK EU membership to remain in the EU
 
devilish said:
The EU deal as a group and once a country leaves the group then those trade deals do not apply anymore. Hence why an independent Scotland can't use the UK EU membership to remain in the EU
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I was about to write that, too. I never stop being amazed how little those who voted for Brexit know about the EU. That the EU do trade deals for all members which cannot have separate one has been written in the papers before the referendum and almost daily afterwards, and still some people ignore it.
That's the main reason the UK suffer from a shortage of experts in trade deals. There simply was no need to have them.
 
devilish said:
Putin is no saint. However Russia is a powerful neighbour who will never go away. Them poking the bear while thinking the EU will protect them is stupid. For a Union that is so proud with equal rights it should keep the Eastern European countries under check on this especially in terms of citizens of Russian descend and Roma people.
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Again, you're right, but it's still not so simple. Rights in Europe are only good relative to most other places - i.e, I doubt those Roma or Russian speaking people would fare any better or have more rights in Russia. And now, at least they have venues for recourse and can take those countries to the European courts.
 
Silva said:
Again, you're right, but it's still not so simple. And rights in Europe are only good relative to most other places - i.e, I doubt those Roma or Russian speaking people would fare any better or have more rights in Russia. And now, at least they have venues of recourse and can take those countries to the European courts.
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It is that simple. I assure you I am talking from experience. I come from a country who was a spit away from the mad dog himself
 
712 said:
I don't think there's any chance of a trade deal now because Poland et al will not budge from demanding free movement. After a hard brexit however the picture changes, the Polands would have nothing further to lose on movement, and the question then would be whether a new deal would be mutually beneficial or not. I'd expect that to be some time further on, with a lot of damage done in the meantime, more so to Britain than the EU of course, but it's a scenario I can envisage.
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The later it's left before either free trade or a transitory deal is agreed, the more businesses will leave the UK for Europe, so the more in Europe's interests it is to promise nothing until the latest point possible (if ever). Not just a hard Brexit, but a delayed period of uncertainty is going to cause significant damage to the UK economy, and that at least, looks inevitable now.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
So they made the decision and that decision brings consequences.
The only trading they could do is through WTO
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Who knows the details at this stage. But something will be worked out. Countries trade with each other - militaristic dictatorships trade with Swedish hippies; fervent Islamic states overcome their religious scruples to trade with the infidel West; the sacred trades with the profane and the pure with the corrupt; they all do it to make money. Britain isn't going to be sent to the corner to sit by itself.
 
Will Absolute said:
I liked the original idea of a Common Market - the body that Britain and Ireland joined in the 70s. Once you go beyond that, you're undermining the idea of the nation state itself, which is a whole different ball game.
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How is it undermining nation states, they are still free to do what they want?
 
Will Absolute said:
Who knows the details at this stage. But something will be worked out. Countries trade with each other - militaristic dictatorships trade with Swedish hippies; fervent Islamic states overcome their religious scruples to trade with the infidel West; the sacred trades with the profane and the pure with the corrupt; they all do it to make money. Britain isn't going to be sent to the corner to sit by itself.
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Yes trading will continue, but there will be no deals in place, which means import/export licences, tariffs, VAT, customs inspections etc which hasn't applied to half their trade in recent times. It's a massive change.
If the Uk want to carry on trade with the EU as before, everyone knows the price.
 
ThierryHenry said:
The later it's left before either free trade or a transitory deal is agreed, the more businesses will leave the UK for Europe, so the more in Europe's interests it is to promise nothing until the latest point possible (if ever). Not just a hard Brexit, but a delayed period of uncertainty is going to cause significant damage to the UK economy, and that at least, looks inevitable now.
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I hope not, but that's the way I see it. To some it will be worth it of course, to others not.
 
Trade gap increases to £4.2bn as figures 'paint mixed picture' of UK economy



Britain's trade gap widened to £4.2 billion in November as the collapse in the value of the pound failed to significantly boost exports.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the goods and services deficit - the gap between exports and imports - increased by £2.6 billion from October.

The figures reflect a £3.3 billion increase in imports, while Britain recorded only £700 million of exports.

The ONS said: "The widening of the deficit in November 2016 is attributed to trade in goods in which there were increased imports from both EU and non-EU countries, partially offset by an increase in exports to EU countries.

Sterling fell on the news, with the battered pound down 0.47% to 1.21 US dollars on the day.

The statistics body also released data on industrial output, which showed more encouraging signs.

Industrial output rose by 2.1% in November, ahead of economists' expectations, helped by an increase in oil and gas output and a 1.2% rise in manufacturing activity.

Senior ONS statistician Kate Davies said: "Today's figures continue to paint a mixed picture of the UK's economic performance. Production saw significant growth, mainly down to increased oil and gas output as the Buzzard field came back online along with a boost from the volatile pharmaceuticals industry.


"However, the trade deficit widened as imports of transport equipment, chemicals and portable computers helped eclipse rising exports, while falls in repair work and commercial building led to a small overall decline in construction.

Data out on Wednesday also showed that construction output in November contracted for the second consecutive month, falling 0.2%.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "A mixed set of November economic releases for the UK economy, which on balance kept the economy in with a good chance of recording ongoing resilient GDP growth in the fourth quarter. We estimate expansion of 0.5%.

"Business confidence is likely to be hampered by mounting uncertainty over the Brexit process and slowing economic activity, constraining investment plans and limiting demand for capital goods. This uncertainty will likely be magnified once the government triggers Article 50 and negotiations over the UK's exit from the European Union come to the forefront."

On Tuesday, a forecast by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) showed that the economy will grow at its slowest pace since the 2009 recession this year as soaring inflation and lacklustre wage growth bring an end to Britain's consumer spending boom.
 
I wonder if even this tsunami of evidence will convince Brexiters.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ould-make-eu-unity-a-priority-in-brexit-talks

The Social Democrats’ positioning coincides with a survey indicating that German business remains relaxed about negative consequences of Britain leaving the union. According to a study by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, more than nine out of 10 German firms do not expect strong effects from Brexit on their business activities in the near future.

The survey of 2,900 firms found that only a small share of 2-3% of companies believed Britain’s departure from the bloc of states would have strong negative consequences on their investment and employment. Meanwhile, a quarter of German firms expected to benefit from diversion of business activities away from the UK.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ould-make-eu-unity-a-priority-in-brexit-talks

The Social Democrats’ positioning coincides with a survey indicating that German business remains relaxed about negative consequences of Britain leaving the union. According to a study by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, more than nine out of 10 German firms do not expect strong effects from Brexit on their business activities in the near future.

The survey of 2,900 firms found that only a small share of 2-3% of companies believed Britain’s departure from the bloc of states would have strong negative consequences on their investment and employment. Meanwhile, a quarter of German firms expected to benefit from diversion of business activities away from the UK.
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Always nice to see the subjective vibes one is surrounded with confirmed. :)
 
Ah, so now you want to listen to Carney. Right.
 
Stanley Road said:
When he admits he's wrong yes, when he's full of shit no
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Directly from Nigel's Bible on Brexit then. Anyone who disgrees with me is not a decent person, corrupt or has ulterior motives.

I personally think Mark is quite fond of his life in London and is trying hard to change course, so auntie May does not sack him because he disagrees with her Highness.
 
Carney now thinking re Brexit

" The risk was greater for continental Europe than for the UK, he said."

This from the remainers favourite who will now no doubt be talking shite.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
Carney now thinking re Brexit

" The risk was greater for continental Europe than for the UK, he said."

This from the remainers favourite who will now no doubt be talking shite.
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As shite as ''we had enough of experts'' was, anyone who believe economists know the future have only themselves to blame.
 
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