Unlikely in Germany. They are more likely to hold the liberal flag up high.
German Elections 2017
- Thread starter Kasper
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
There is not gonna be a great change in the end. Grand coalition is what awaits Germany. Maybe we are only gonna see CDU together with Green and FDP.
The right are already part of the gouvernment though
It's practically inevitable that the AfD will make it into the Bundestag, my guess is somewhere between 10 and 15%. This will hurt the possibilities of majority coalitions of the democratic parties.
CDU+FDP+Green/SPD. I can't see any problem.
Last edited:
I can't see a Jamaica coalition happening, never been much love between Greens and FDP. The SPD might be dumb enough to get into bed with the CDU/CSU and the FDP but they'd probably get enough seats just together with the CDU anyway so that's unlikely as well. It's really an odd situation right now with so many uncertainties, there can happen a lot within the next 9 months.
Right now it actually reminds me of the situation before the last election despite the strong numbers the AFD has.
There's a slim chance for a majority for CD/CU+Greens (while uncertain if they'd be willing and ultimately they were not). There's a slim chance an SPD-Left-Green coalition would have a majority and it would (up to now this time afair only: likely) not even happen then and there's an extremely high chance of a CD/SU-SPD coalition having a majority and they'de be willing.
Well back then they had still some hope for black-yellow but tbf the majority would have been so slim even if the FDP had made it..
There's a slim chance for a majority for CD/CU+Greens (while uncertain if they'd be willing and ultimately they were not). There's a slim chance an SPD-Left-Green coalition would have a majority and it would (up to now this time afair only: likely) not even happen then and there's an extremely high chance of a CD/SU-SPD coalition having a majority and they'de be willing.
Well back then they had still some hope for black-yellow but tbf the majority would have been so slim even if the FDP had made it..
I agree but the difference this time is that it's almost certain that the AfD will get into parliament and the FDP possibly as well.
Schulz will join a meeting of SPD/Greens/Linke next week, so it could be the first time that the SPD doesn't reject a left wing coalition - would be quite ironic if they finally make their mind up on that in the election where RRG won't have enough seats...
The problem is that SPD is the first not to want it. It's easier to be junior coalition partner with CDU rather than the biggest party with Linke and Green for them.
That's not the issue, the issue is that Die Linke just isn't ready to be part of the gouvernment. At least have of their personel is absolutely estranged from reality.
Yeah of course the situation itself is very different. Likely about 20% of the seats go to parties currently not in the parliament. Which makes it somewhat funny that we're still talking about exactly the same coalitions.
Anyway I'd like to see them go for R2G but it's true that it would be very hard to actually get a majority. The SPD is just so weak at the moment but even if they manage to get more votes I'm not sure if that wouldn't mostly be votes from the Left/Greens.
I know it's easier but the SPD have to do something to stop the downfall. They can't just continue to go on like that and while I think many of them are clowns it's not like they don't know that the situation is bad.
I completely agree with you. If they didn't want to form a government with Green and Linke they should at least refuse to join CDU once again.
Germany needs to get over the Holocaust
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/german-populist-ignites-outrage-with-call-to-end-nazi-guilt/
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/german-populist-ignites-outrage-with-call-to-end-nazi-guilt/
At least they are showing their true colors.
He didn't call to end 'Nazi guilt'. Also, remembering and warning is not the same as feeling guilty. I myself don't feel guilty for the actions of my (great-)grandparents and their generations, but I think that Germany as a nation has a unique duty to warn against fascist tendencies, discrimination of minorities, and attacks on the freedom of expression. For this, the monuments of Nazi crimes must be preserved for everyone to see.
What Höcke effectively was saying: Hey, let's go back there and be a totalitarian militaristic nation once more! Let's not look back in horror, but pride, it was kind of great, and so were we!
Björn Höcke is a blatant Nazi, and everyone who says otherwise is blind or a Nazi himself.
It's not a surprise, as he comes from the former DDR. It's full of Nazi out there.
So does the current chancellor, who is seen as one of the last truly liberal political leader in the world. East Germany is also the biggest stronghold of the countries socialist/leftist politics (the other end of the political spectrum).
I´ll tell you a little secret about radical political ideologies. They feed off the frustration and poverty of the people. As East Germany still has parts (mostly rural ones), where the standart of living differs quite significantly from the countries average, the brown swamp finds good soil to grow on. The same can be seen in poorer parts of cities in West Germany aswell, though, like the former coal cities of the Ruhr area (Bochum, Gelsenkirchen, Dortmund). This has little to nothing to do with political views of people from the DDR, but economical factors.
I was in a hurry so i wrote quickly. Yep, when the DDR collapsed it left many people in disarray, as it was the state who employed them.
Martin Schulz appointed as the candidate for the SPD (center-left)
Schulz it is! Certainly the better option than Gabriel, although there are voices that he should've been spared in this election (which Merkel will win most likely anyway) and saved for the next one where the CDU will probably be more vulnerable without Merkel. Given that the other option would've been Gabriel it's still better to send him this time I think as the SPD might've gotten their worst result in history otherwise.
Think it will either be Groko or Rot Rot Grün. I dont see any other outcome
RRG is unlikely to obtain any majority, imho. Maybe if both FDP and AfD would fail the 5% barrier, which is bloody unlikely.
You think he has any chance? Would SPD be willing to make a left wing coalition?
Schulz is a far stronger candidate than Gabriel. He isn't part of the current government, so he has more freedom to attack Merkel. He also is way better at connecting with people, because he can be far more outspoken/direct. Additionally Germany is fairly europhile, so his former job could be seen as a positive. There is more, but the gist is, that the SPD made a good decision.
Here are the poll-numbers of different pollsters: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The number in brackets is the result from the last general election.
CDU/CSU (41,5%): 32,5-37%
SPD (25,7%): 20-23%
Green Party (8,4%): 8,5-10%
DieLinke (8,6%): 9-11%
FDP (4,8%** = not in the parliament): 5-7,5%
AfD (4,7% = not in the parliament): 11,5-15%
If you add up the high estimations of red-red-green and the low of all the other parties it still wouldn't be enough (23+10+11=44% vs 32,5+5+11,5= 49%). Even if the FDP doesn't reach 5%, which is certainly possible, they'd still struggle to get a majority.
With Schulz as candidate they might have a shot at finish around ~25% again (instead of falling below 20%.), but there will be an inverse relationship between the results of the three left wing parties. Not all three of them are going to outperform their polls at the same time. We also have to factor in that pollsters might underestimate the AfD. It is fairly unlikely the there will be a left-wing majority.
My personal opinion: I think overall these polls give a good indication how things will turn out. The SPD will do alright, while the Green Party and DieLinke will lose votes compared to the last election. It is imo 50/50 if the FDP gets over 5% and the AfD might slightly outperform their current polls. Another 4 years of "GroKo" are imo the most likely result.
Here are the poll-numbers of different pollsters: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The number in brackets is the result from the last general election.
CDU/CSU (41,5%): 32,5-37%
SPD (25,7%): 20-23%
Green Party (8,4%): 8,5-10%
DieLinke (8,6%): 9-11%
FDP (4,8%** = not in the parliament): 5-7,5%
AfD (4,7% = not in the parliament): 11,5-15%
If you add up the high estimations of red-red-green and the low of all the other parties it still wouldn't be enough (23+10+11=44% vs 32,5+5+11,5= 49%). Even if the FDP doesn't reach 5%, which is certainly possible, they'd still struggle to get a majority.
With Schulz as candidate they might have a shot at finish around ~25% again (instead of falling below 20%.), but there will be an inverse relationship between the results of the three left wing parties. Not all three of them are going to outperform their polls at the same time. We also have to factor in that pollsters might underestimate the AfD. It is fairly unlikely the there will be a left-wing majority.
My personal opinion: I think overall these polls give a good indication how things will turn out. The SPD will do alright, while the Green Party and DieLinke will lose votes compared to the last election. It is imo 50/50 if the FDP gets over 5% and the AfD might slightly outperform their current polls. Another 4 years of "GroKo" are imo the most likely result.
Last edited:
I agree with @PedroMendez thoughts on this. I guess they'd be willing this time to form a left wing coalition but as others said its fairly unlikely even if you take into context that a lot can happen from now to September. It's quite ironic that it would've been enough the last three elections but they always decided against it and now that they would take it they probably won't get it.
Thanks, that's pretty much what I thought. Just wanted to hear it from someone more knowledgeable.
Last edited:
If the SPD couldn't form a left-wing coalition they shouldn't just join Merkel again. Just oppose her. It's time to reinvent yourself.
If there isn't a left coalition or SPD+CDU, there can be no government because of AfD's numbers (judging by that poll)
As a party member and someone working for it, I can assure you there is zero possibility for a left wing coalition. The right wing part of the base and the establishment will make sure of that.
That's really sad. The SPD is not gonna exist anymore if they keep on behaving like this.
You probably have no idea what Die Linke is. What they stand for. And how utterly incompetent their personal is, apart from the few front figures. If getting Die Linke into the gouvernment is the price for gouverning again, it's not worth it. It would burn the country to the ground and destroy our party. There is zero will, nor the relevant knowledge in that party to gouvern anything.
Wagenknecht is undistiguishable from the AfD these days and she is not the only one. The party is deeply anti-EU and anti-NATO. There's no common ground between us.
And that's ignoring the fact they still have Stasi- and SED members in their leadership. Gysi is an amazing politician, but also a coward, a traitor and a despicable human being.
Interesting. That pretty much ensures that there will be a Grand Coalition again, doesn't it?
Neither the Union nor the SPD want that. CDU/CSU probably hope for Union/FDP, Union/Greens, or even Union/Greens/FDP.
So why have you formed many local governments with them?
Basically, the EU is anti-left wing entity. But we already know it.
Because local gouvernment is different. NATO, TTIP and EU are hardly an issue in Thüringen. Also, the eastern parts of the party have a more realistic stance on most matters. The western parts are unbereable, that's why there never was any coalition there.
On a local level, we have coalitions with every party in Germany except the right wing ones.
Fair point. The fact is that the SPD doesn't know how to return to win the elections though, with or without hard left.
I know but that doesn't seem possible at this point, does it? Perhaps the latter has a chance, mathematically, but would the Greens agree to it?
Pretty sure they would. There are working Green/CDU coalitions at state level.
I was talking about the Jamaica one. Seems unlikely that CDU / Green get the votes.
Saarland was gouverned by such a coalition. Can work.