German Elections 2017
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
It collapsed eventually but I don't know the exact circumstances so I won't argue about it. I've been living in Germany for two years and still new to the politics. This is the first election I'm following. Thanks for the info.
FDP had some scandals. Nothing on policy matters.
Die Linke is product of the merging of WASD and PDS (former SED). PDS were part of coalitions and local gouverments from the start. They were used to gouvern in some sense and no radical left wing politicians.
WASD was a party formed out of the radical western parts of SPD, led by Oskar Lafontaine (former minister under Schröder). This was a protest movement against Agenda 2010 and consisted put of communists intellectuals, populists left wing workers and former radical members of the 68 movement.
They have a strong hatred for the SPD and never actually tried to go into the ugly depths of actually gouverning, neither before they left the party nor after they left it. They are often some kind of national socialists, not in the NSDAP kind, but in an anti EU and anti globalization/big business sense.
Weird people, had to work with some of those in a local parliament. It's pretty trumpish in some way.
Read two days ago that Schulz and Merkel are tied in some polls. But the CDU is well-ahead as party.
Spoken like a true Steinmeier
I agree with certain parts of what you write in here, that the eastern part of the Links is way better than their western counterpart and thy have indeed a lot of incompetent idiots but pretty rich for someone to call Wagenknecht indistinguishable from the AfD while using similar populist statements such as "They would burn the country to the grounds."
As if they would actually have that much power in a three party coalition.
You throw the words "Anti-EU" out without distinguishing what they actually criticise (they don't want to leave the EU btw just change things) and their foreign policy has been more than spot on on a lot of occasions. They remain the only party not no have shouted for an intervention in the middle east at least once in the last 20 years (apart from demanding support for the Kurds) and the only one who's opposing the pathetic arms export business Germany has been doing for ages.
Your disdain for left policies is the symptomatic problem of why the SPD has lost so many voters since 2002. Praising the agenda 2010 and badgering to the CDU in order to hope to get some votes, pathetic.
Oh and calling Gysi a traitor (why exactly?) is quite ironic coming from the party that betrayed left ideals and the German people 100 years ago.
Spoken like a true Steinmeier
I agree with certain parts of what you write in here, that the eastern part of the Links is way better than their western counterpart and thy have indeed a lot of incompetent idiots but pretty rich for someone to call Wagenknecht indistinguishable from the AfD while using similar populist statements such as "They would burn the country to the grounds."
As if they would actually have that much power in a three party coalition.
You throw the words "Anti-EU" out without distinguishing what they actually criticise (they don't want to leave the EU btw just change things) and their foreign policy has been more than spot on on a lot of occasions. They remain the only party not no have shouted for an intervention in the middle east at least once in the last 20 years (apart from demanding support for the Kurds) and the only one who's opposing the pathetic arms export business Germany has been doing for ages.
Your disdain for left policies is the symptomatic problem of why the SPD has lost so many voters since 2002. Praising the agenda 2010 and badgering to the CDU in order to hope to get some votes, pathetic.
Oh and calling Gysi a traitor (why exactly?) is quite ironic coming from the party that betrayed left ideals and the German people 100 years ago.
As you may know, Gysi acted as a lawyer for regime critics in the DDR but actually spied on them for the Stasi. Which does make you a traitor in my eyes. And a despicable human being.
And calling their foreign policy spot on ... oh my. They do not even have a foreign policy to speak off. It's just: let's not get involved in anything. They also did not support the Kurds.
Also, you should probably watch and read what Wagenknecht has done the last few months. Her and Petry in that talkshow lately, I wondered if they actually fell in love that day.
I also wonder whom we betrayed in 1917, but anyway.
The SPD is a centrist left party, always has been. Whoever does not like this is free to leave. Doesn't mean they are right.
Rosa!?!
Anyway, I read up on Wagenknecht's statements. The Left should do better than trying for cheap votes at the expense of immigrants/refugees.
I think he was referring more to Wilhelm II, Falkenhayn and the likes. But the Rosa thing is part of that story of course.
Wagenknecht always had a knack for that kind of populism. She's certainly a worthy heir to Lafontaine.
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The first part has never been proven to be true and Gysi has won nearly every court ruling on that matter.
I disagree with Wagenknechts rhetoric in the recent months (and she has been called out on it by her own party) although she's right that we can't have Merkel criticism as something only the AfD is allowed to do. She might have taken a way position during the refugee crisis than her European counterparts but that doesn't make her policy flawless and calling that out shouldn't be left to the right wingers alone.
Your statement that their only foreign policy position (I didn't call it spot on generally btw.) is "to do nothing" is wrong but I'm no surprised by your answer as the general position of SPD/CDU regarding the Left is generally "It's unrealistic" or "They have no policy.
If you don't know what happened a century ago you should maybe check Burgfrieden and everything that followed.
Indeed, the murder of her and Lieberknecht and the involvement of SPD guys like Noske is shockingly seldom discussed.
Burgfrieden was more than 100 years ago. Also, I fail to see how any of this is relevant today. All people involved are long dead.
Regarding Gysi, it is proven. Gysi has just made sure nobody can actually publish it. Still a traitor. And a living one at that.
And yes, all of the lefts foreign policy is unrealistic to downright stupid.
First part may be irrelevant but your reaction is symbolic to how ignorant the SPD is in regards to their own past.
Second part is a contradiction in itself and the third part is a nice summary of the overall quality of your ability to discuss content in here. Cheers.
Part of the SPD and DieLinke leadership just hate each other with passion. I doubt that ideology is the reason, but wounded pride/vanity on both sides. The way Lafontaine&Co left wasn't pretty.
DieLinke/PDS certainly made a mess out of their special relationship with the SED. Andrej Holm is just another one of those incidence. Just to make this clear: I wouldn't have a problem when former supporters of the DDR regime would seek public office again. The necessary condition would be honesty, transparency and reflection about this past; not denial and obscuration. DieLinke sends very very "mix signals" in this regard to say the least.
That reflects parts of the general sentiment so. There is a lot of romanization about the nature of the DDR.
I think she knows fairly well why many people vote for her party.....they don't care about high minded principles or ideology, but want more state intervention in the economy and more social welfare. The AfD promises all of that as well. DieLinke also attracted protest voters in the past, but the AfD is taking over this role in the next election, too.
Overall you can see the influence of the AfD on the rhetoric of all parties so. Gabriel just gave a Spiegel-interview where he talked about a "Kulturkampf gegen Islamismus" (hard to translate because there is always the danger of changing nuances of the meaning; the whole quote would be something like: "If we want to get serious about our fight against terrorism and Islamism, we also have to fight it on a cultural level".).
If the AfD would have said something like that a couple of month ago, everybody would have labelled them as Nazis.
DieLinke/PDS certainly made a mess out of their special relationship with the SED. Andrej Holm is just another one of those incidence. Just to make this clear: I wouldn't have a problem when former supporters of the DDR regime would seek public office again. The necessary condition would be honesty, transparency and reflection about this past; not denial and obscuration. DieLinke sends very very "mix signals" in this regard to say the least.
That reflects parts of the general sentiment so. There is a lot of romanization about the nature of the DDR.
I think she knows fairly well why many people vote for her party.....they don't care about high minded principles or ideology, but want more state intervention in the economy and more social welfare. The AfD promises all of that as well. DieLinke also attracted protest voters in the past, but the AfD is taking over this role in the next election, too.
Overall you can see the influence of the AfD on the rhetoric of all parties so. Gabriel just gave a Spiegel-interview where he talked about a "Kulturkampf gegen Islamismus" (hard to translate because there is always the danger of changing nuances of the meaning; the whole quote would be something like: "If we want to get serious about our fight against terrorism and Islamism, we also have to fight it on a cultural level".).
If the AfD would have said something like that a couple of month ago, everybody would have labelled them as Nazis.
Oh, alright, it was indeed about Rosa.
No you were right I was indeed referring to the events at the beginning of WWI:
what do you say about your JuSo leader saying in her last Focus interview, that she is against another GroKo and for a left-wing coalition?
The Jusos have been against a big coalition already in 2013. That does not really matter...
But - I doubt there will be the chance for a leftwing coalition anyways.
that is true, but various of their MPs would fancy such an arrangement as well. There were also a few meetings/conferences between various MPs of these three party, where they discussed policies. While there is always some level of dialogue, they expanded in size/scope. Thats a pretty good sign, that such a coalition is not unthinkable for these parties.
Nobody cares what the Jusos say. They are completely irrelevant these days. Dreamers who have never left university.
I find it quite weird there is more hate towards left-wing ideas in a so-called "centre-left party" than in a right-wing one.
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Why? The CDU and SPD aren't so far away from each other with their politics today. Both are more center left (SPD) and center right (CDU) than they really are left or right parties.
That is the current poll data if the Election for the Bundestag would be now:
The seats (as 5% will fall to smaller parties) would be distributed like this (it would be a little more difficult because of the 1st and 2nd vote and so called Überhangmandate - but that would be to difficult to tell here)
CDU/CSU 37.9 %
SPD 25.6 %
Die Linke 10.5 %
Grüne 8.4%
FDP 6.3 %
AFD 11.6 %
So possible coalitions:
Big coalition CDU/CSU/SPD 63.5 %
CDU/CSU/Grüne/FDP 52.6 %
SPD/Die Linke/Grüne 44.5 %
Nobody will do a coalition with the AFD - and the FDP or CDU/CSU will never make a coalition with "Die Linke"
Even if the polls in the USA or prior to the Brexit might have shown some wrong tendencies they never were really heavily of the track so that they were more than e.g. 5 % off the results. So it for sure does not look like the AFD has a lot chances to get big...
I was kidding. I know many centre-left parties are very close to the centre than the left.Why? The CDU and SPD aren't so far away from each other with their politics today. Both are more center left (SPD) and center right (CDU) than they really are left or right parties.
That is the current poll data if the Election for the Bundestag would be now:
The seats (as 5% will fall to smaller parties) would be distributed like this (it would be a little more difficult because of the 1st and 2nd vote and so called Überhangmandate - but that would be to difficult to tell here)
CDU/CSU 37.9 %
SPD 25.6 %
Die Linke 10.5 %
Grüne 8.4%
FDP 6.3 %
AFD 11.6 %
So possible coalitions:
Big coalition CDU/CSU/SPD 63.5 %
CDU/CSU/Grüne/FDP 52.6 %
SPD/Die Linke/Grüne 44.5 %
Nobody will do a coalition with the AFD - and the FDP or CDU/CSU will never make a coalition with "Die Linke"
Even if the polls in the USA or prior to the Brexit might have shown some wrong tendencies they never were really heavily of the track so that they were more than e.g. 5 % off the results. So it for sure does not look like the AFD has a lot chances to get big...
Early polls indicate Schulz might stand a chance, 50% wish for him to be chancellor, 34% Merkel. SPD is up to 28% in the latest polls. Even as a SPD member, I'm pretty surprised.
Yep, good polls for the SPD. But the real change would be, if possible, to try something different from the past.
Certainly a strong improvement from them. Good news in general is that the AfD seem to be stuck around the 10-15% mark, seem more like UKIP in the UK in that regard.
Don't be fooled by their support in the east. Most states there don't have many inhabitants so in the grand scheme of things, the AfD will never get near 20%. the Ruhrgebiet has more than 1/3 of the population of all of eastern Germany.
So Schulz is more of center-left figure, right. How strong are the fractions between the left and the right wing in the SPD?
The polls about him will be more interesting in 2 or 3 months. Right now he is the new one nobody really knows.
Funny about the AFD (or before the NPD) is that they are especially strong in areas in which barely a foreigner lives. Only 0.48 % of the inhabitants of Sachsen are muslims - all of East Germany has about the same percentage. Whereas there is e.g. 8% in North Rhine Westfalia.
It's the same in a lot of places, really. In the US Trump and the Republicans were clearly the less positive party when it came to immigrants, and they were successful in a lot of rural counties that I'd imagine have minimal interactions with immigrants. That's not to demean those with legitimate concerns over immigration, of course, but it does often seem to come from people who don't have as much interaction with them.
It's always easier to make something seem scary when your audience doesn't know much about it.
Actually, Schulz is within the SPD more on the right wing. Within the general spectrum of politi in the center.
@fcbforever as a member of the party will know better but as a non-party member, I perceive the left wing of the SPD to be recognizable, with a little influence here and there on the party manifesto but that's about it. On a federal level that is.
As you might know, Germany is a federal state with every state having its own elected Ministerpräsident. (They lead their states but also convene in a second federal chamber, the Bundesrat. They have to approve certain bills before they can be implemented in the law, and they can start initiatives for bills, too.)
In some states, the left wing of the SPD has more influence than in others (e.g. Hesse, the state in which Frankfurt and Wiesbaden are located). In the majority of states though, either the center of the SPD or the right wing is. more influential.
In my memory, the left wing had much more influence before then Chancellor Schröder implemented his Agenda 2010, which weakened workers protection and welfare. Many left wing party members made an exit and joined the party Die Linken (The Left).
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Owen Jones pointed out that in England, the strongest BNP vote (in the early/mid 00s) came from areas with no migration or very little but very recent migration (people had just started coming). Places with large and/or established immigrant communities mostly weren't attracted to the BNP.
I'd like to add something that hasn't been mentioned yet as far as I can see.
Die Linken have formed a number of coalitions in Eastern parts of Germany (including Berlin) on a state and community level. IMO, these experiences, particularly the ones on a state level, grounded them from any high-fly socialist illusions they might have had; they are more realistic what's actually achievable.
Ya, both answers suggest that experience in govt itself was a big factor, and that makes sense.
Perhaps you know the site but I thought I share anyway: If you're interest in all our German elections, polls and laws and everything, on the federal but also on state levels (North-Rhine Westphalia being the most important one this year), you might want to visit http://www.wahlrecht.de/ .
It's run by an independent group and obviously in German. They have some pages in English language, too, but these might not be up to date http://www.wahlrecht.de/english.htm. Among other things, they compile all sorts of polls that get published by different groups/organizations/media. I also recommend following them on Twitter for the most recent polls https://twitter.com/wahlrecht_de .
Thanks mate, I'll check it out. I know German, so it's all good.
I think the pragmatism/extremism gap is not only down to government experience, but also to the history of the party. It is (in part) based on the strategic readjustment implemented by Gysi, Bisky and Brie in the mid 90s, who steered the party towards an almost distinctly “non-ideological” path. I don’t really know enough about this, but I think both campaign tactical thoughts and a shift in attitude of these two people were the reasons for that. At least that seem plausible to me.
The party got radicalized again, when they merged with the WASG (+Lafontaine). Internal critics like Wagenknecht (a die-hard communist) were aligning themselves with the new members who had a particular antipathy towards the SPD and their 3rd way policies. These new members had particular strong influence in the western parts of the country, where the PDS never really gained ground. This marriage (fig. and lit.; Wagenknecht married Lafontaine in 2014) between extreme ideologues and people, who were butt hurt, is extremely toxic.
I agree with Crossie, that government experience (especially in Berlin after 2001) had moderating influence on them as well. Promising more money for everybody is easy, but that is just not realistic.
The party got radicalized again, when they merged with the WASG (+Lafontaine). Internal critics like Wagenknecht (a die-hard communist) were aligning themselves with the new members who had a particular antipathy towards the SPD and their 3rd way policies. These new members had particular strong influence in the western parts of the country, where the PDS never really gained ground. This marriage (fig. and lit.; Wagenknecht married Lafontaine in 2014) between extreme ideologues and people, who were butt hurt, is extremely toxic.
I agree with Crossie, that government experience (especially in Berlin after 2001) had moderating influence on them as well. Promising more money for everybody is easy, but that is just not realistic.
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Most of the partys left, especially the far left, left the party under Schröder. This diminshed their influence. They also have problems getting voted into office or even being considered by the party before that, since distinctive left positions are hard to sell when the people you want to appeal to will just vote Die Linke. There is no major left wing politician left in the SPD; although their base is still probably around 1/3 of the party.
You touch up on a good point there, that there's a lot of personal grudge and baggage from defected ex-SPD not-Linke folks in the Western states of Germany. It'll be interesting to see if that'll be extinct once these guys get dementia or die.
I remember Gysi as a Senator of Economy in Berlin who woke up and smelled the coffee. Of course he's still a leftie but he's very well aware that a lot of promises his party makes are not from this world. I don't remember him saying it explicitly, but I'm sure he secretly subscribes to Franz Müntefering's famous sentence: 'Opposition ist Mist!'.
Their influence is limited as I said earlier but I perceive Ralf Stegner & friends in Schleswig-Holstein as well as Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel & friends in Hesse to be still quite active.
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Stegner is not even prime minister and Schäfer-Gümbel has lost two elections to date, they are hardly what we once had with people like Lafontaine.
Incredible harsh way to look at Schäfer-Gümbel; after the Ypsilanti disaster in 2008 there was no way to achieve a good result in 2009 and he did a surprisingly good job of building the SPD up after that and was extremely unlucky not to end up as the minister in 2013. I can't recall many more impressive SPD results in the last decade than Hessen 2013 given the circumstances.
I got the feeling that Lafontaine hurt the party more than he helped them on a long term perspective. He was widely (and rightfully) regarded as a sore loser and like you said created a toxic environment. Wagenknecht is an important piece tho, she's an amazing debathe and with her countless appearances in talk shows etc she's pushing the publics presence in the media.