Politics at Westminster | BREAKING: UKIP

[Untied]

No mention of climate change in a budget in 2017 is, well, we're fecked basically. (Not that a single budget can make much difference but it indicates the complete lack of political will/concern)

To be fair they have every right to do so. I'm still shocked seeing Tories so keen to increase taxes.

The NI rise for self-employed people, speaking as one, is a little bit of a concern. While I get that the pension contribution disparity is no longer an issue (for most people) I still worry about the difference in sick pay, paid leave etc.

It's just an indication of how broken politics is. Run on a manifesto making cast iron guarantees that you abandon after two years.

 

[12OunceEpilogue]

It's just an indication of how broken politics is. Run on a manifesto making cast iron guarantees that you abandon after two years.

My understanding is that the Tories' manifesto pledge of 'no increase in Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance' was written into law, in the case of NI, as no rise in Class 1 contributions while today's announcement is for Class 4 increases from 9% to 10% in 2018, up to 11% in 2019. So while Hammond has broken the spirit of his party's 2015 manifesto in effect his changes haven't peeled back anything that has been actioned since 2015.

Besides which I don't mind new governments who come in mid-term deviating here and there from the previous government's manifesto. Though technically it does also cover their mandate, as they stood on the thing at the time too, I think new governments should have some leeway here.

As for the policy itself, we'll see. I'm always wary of employee/self-employed comparisons, as they can too easily be used by politicians to pit two groups against each other rather than keeping their anger and scrutiny fixed firmly on the people in power.

 

[Unmutual]

It's just an indication of how broken politics is. Run on a manifesto making cast iron guarantees that you abandon after two years.

In all honesty, I think the Brexit decision has changed things so much that the manifesto isn't quite the set of commitments it would otherwise have been. And yes the Tories should probably seek another mandate from the country, but I dont think there's any appetite from the Tories, Labour or from the electorate at the moment for a GE.

On the NICs, Labour will take this opportunity to attack the Tories, because they get so few chances these days. But in truth every time they affirm the basic principle that paying more taxes is a bad thing, they make it harder to justify their principles of an empowered state. Labour has spent too many years trying to match the Tories on cutting taxes while promising to spend more, something that clearly doesn't add up. Corbyn didn't mention the NICs in his response - probably because it was a boilerplate speech - but I kind of hope they stick to attacking the Tories for their low levels of investment in people and infrastructure rather than complaining about them increasing taxes.

 

[Unmutual]

A follow up from that



If this is correct then, yeah, I'm behind that.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

OBR forecast- the business rates are highlighted but the large expected increase in receipts over the next 6 years of Income tax, NI contributions and VAT took my attention

 

[Untied]

A follow up from that



If this is correct then, yeah, I'm behind that.

As they are raising the threshold on top rate tax. Those at the top will still be net gainers

 

[Ubik]

Here's the broader picture

 

[Unmutual]

As they are raising the threshold on top rate tax. Those at the top will still be net gainers

True enough, though that doesnt mean I disagree with the NIC part.

 

[Smores]

OBR forecast- the business rates are highlighted but the large expected increase in receipts over the next 6 years of Income tax, NI contributions and VAT took my attention

The OBR forecasts are very rarely right but thats quite interesting indeed. They expecting inflation to significantly push up wages? Probably altered by the Treasury mind you.

I'll have a read later of the report like the sad bastard that i am

 

[Smores]

No mention of climate change in a budget in 2017 is, well, we're fecked basically. (Not that a single budget can make much difference but it indicates the complete lack of political will/concern)

Or housing which is an even bigger suprise and confirmation that they're now just happy to let ownership drop. Still nothing announced is still probably better than what Osbourne was delivering.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The OBR forecasts are very rarely right but thats quite interesting indeed. They expecting inflation to significantly push up wages? Probably altered by the Treasury mind you.

I'll have a read later of the report like the sad bastard that i am

Unless the Uk will be living in Boris's Lala Land or there'll be a sudden influx of highly paid immigrants - struggle to see how those forecasts will be met.
Or in other words looks like borrowing will need to be increased sharply.

 

[Jippy]

To be fair they have every right to do so. I'm still shocked seeing Tories so keen to increase taxes.

The NI rise for self-employed people, speaking as one, is a little bit of a concern. While I get that the pension contribution disparity is no longer an issue (for most people) I still worry about the difference in sick pay, paid leave etc.

I dunno- 1% is a relatively modest rise, albeit with another 1% in 2019. I used to be freelance and I paid far less tax than I do now I'm taxed at source- even as a freelance journalist -not exactly the most capital intensive industry- I was able to write all manner of bollox of against my tax bill- even part of my Sky TV bill.

 

[Smores]

I dunno- 1% is a relatively modest rise, albeit with another 1% in 2019. I used to be freelance and I paid far less tax than I do now I'm taxed at source- even as a freelance journalist -not exactly the most capital intensive industry- I was able to write all manner of bollox of against my tax bill- even part of my Sky TV bill.

You managed to deduct porn charges from your tax bill

 

[Jippy]

You managed to deduct porn charges from your tax bill

Only about 10% of my subscription, but yeah, although I referenced Bloomberg TV rather than Babestation.

 

[12OunceEpilogue]

I dunno- 1% is a relatively modest rise, albeit with another 1% in 2019. I used to be freelance and I paid far less tax than I do now I'm taxed at source- even as a freelance journalist -not exactly the most capital intensive industry- I was able to write all manner of bollox of against my tax bill- even part of my Sky TV bill.

Yes indeed. I'm certainly not complaining, I think now that self-employed workers' pension and benefits have been largely drawn into line with those of employees it's only fair NI starts to move that way too. However the lack of coverage for leave and sickness, though part and parcel of self-employment, can be shitty, and even a small tax rise as well could be a pain for some of my colleagues and me.

Nicely done on the Sky subscription by the way, I've set all my filming and editing equipment against tax too.

 

[Mozza]

To be fair they have every right to do so. I'm still shocked seeing Tories so keen to increase taxes.

The NI rise for self-employed people, speaking as one, is a little bit of a concern. While I get that the pension contribution disparity is no longer an issue (for most people) I still worry about the difference in sick pay, paid leave etc.

All those courier drivers, uber drivers and other self employed spivs of the Gig economy are going to love this

 

[Jippy]

Yes indeed. I'm certainly not complaining, I think now that self-employed workers' pension and benefits have been largely drawn into line with those of employees it's only fair NI starts to move that way too. However the lack of coverage for leave and sickness, though part and parcel of self-employment, can be shitty, and even a small tax rise as well could be a pain for some of my colleagues and me.

Nicely done on the Sky subscription by the way, I've set all my filming and editing equipment against tax too.

Yep, holiday pay and pension contribution were the main pains back in the day. I claimed part of my rent and bills, then weird stuff like mag subscriptions, postage, anything I could really without pushing it too far.

 

[Unmutual]

Or housing which is an even bigger suprise and confirmation that they're now just happy to let ownership drop. Still nothing announced is still probably better than what Osbourne was delivering.

tbf they released a white paper just a month ago

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/housing-white-paper

 

[Unmutual]

The fallout from this budget is getting kind of odd. Among a budget of bad news, the NIC raise is pretty much the only thing the IFS & Resolution Foundation both back as being a good thing. Yet Labour are opposing it, mainly because they sense the chance to give the Chancellor a bloody nose. That the other people opposing it include John Redwood and the Daily Mail makes the whole thing quite unusual.

If Labour play their cards right they could turn this into a major win. With a handful of Tories bound to rebel, the Government is going to need Labour's votes to get the changes through the house (which will need separate legislation). They could make the price for pushing through that legislation a commitment to doing something around the rights of self employed workers, like a firmer commitment around mat pay and sick pay. That's what effective opposition is all about.

Either way, it highlights the perils of having a working majority of about 20. If May fails to get this through, Id say the odds of a snap General Election shorten a fair bit.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Just a point 'snap elections' are impossible today thanks to the fixed term parliament act.

To have an early election, may would have to hold, and win, a vote of no confidence in her own government.

 

[12OunceEpilogue]

The fallout from this budget is getting kind of odd. Among a budget of bad news, the NIC raise is pretty much the only thing the IFS & Resolution Foundation both back as being a good thing. Yet Labour are opposing it, mainly because they sense the chance to give the Chancellor a bloody nose. That the other people opposing it include John Redwood and the Daily Mail makes the whole thing quite unusual.

If Labour play their cards right they could turn this into a major win. With a handful of Tories bound to rebel, the Government is going to need Labour's votes to get the changes through the house (which will need separate legislation). They could make the price for pushing through that legislation a commitment to doing something around the rights of self employed workers, like a firmer commitment around mat pay and sick pay. That's what effective opposition is all about.

Either way, it highlights the perils of having a working majority of about 20. If May fails to get this through, Id say the odds of a snap General Election shorten a fair bit.

It's funny how much controversy Hammond has whipped up with a budget he made crystal clear was meant to be as uneventful as possible. As discussed on the Daily Politics today he has hit three groups of traditionally Tory voters, broken a manifesto pledge and angered his backbenchers over a policy that will generate about £145 million for treasury coffers. Very odd.

Just a point 'snap elections' are impossible today thanks to the fixed term parliament act.

To have an early election, may would have to hold, and win, a vote of no confidence in her own government.

Or repeal the act. It would be controversial though, and she might decide she quite likes no effective parliamentary opposition and a sure win in 2020.

 

[NinjaFletch]

Just a point 'snap elections' are impossible today thanks to the fixed term parliament act.

To have an early election, may would have to hold, and win, a vote of no confidence in her own government.

Not really. It's a constitutional point that Parliament can't be bound by a previous act of Parliament.

All they need is a simple majority to repeal the bill.

 

[Unmutual]

Not really. It's a constitutional point that Parliament can't be bound by a previous act of Parliament.

All they need is a simple majority to repeal the bill.

Quite, Labour have repeatedly said they'd back an early General Election, so at this point its entirely down to May's discretion.

 

[Kentonio]

In all honesty, I think the Brexit decision has changed things so much that the manifesto isn't quite the set of commitments it would otherwise have been. And yes the Tories should probably seek another mandate from the country, but I dont think there's any appetite from the Tories, Labour or from the electorate at the moment for a GE.

I absolutely don't understand why the Tories are election shy at the moment. They've basically stolen the ground from under UKIP (except amongst Labour heartland areas, where UKIP would actually take votes from Labour anyway) and they're streets ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems in every way. They're also facing the risk of taking a massive kick in the face once Brexit negotiations get properly underway.

I know the rules changed on holding snap elections (they need 2/3's of MPs to vote in favour of an election now or a vote of no confidence apparently), but they could have insisted a new mandate was required post referendum and basically bullied Labour into going along with it.

I'm glad they didn't, because now the next election will be after the Brexit fallout hits, but it does seem extremely stupid of them.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I absolutely don't understand why the Tories are election shy at the moment. They've basically stolen the ground from under UKIP (except amongst Labour heartland areas, where UKIP would actually take votes from Labour anyway) and they're streets ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems in every way. They're also facing the risk of taking a massive kick in the face once Brexit negotiations get properly underway.

I know the rules changed on holding snap elections (they need 2/3's of MPs to vote in favour of an election now or a vote of no confidence apparently), but they could have insisted a new mandate was required post referendum and basically bullied Labour into going along with it.

I'm glad they didn't, because now the next election will be after the Brexit fallout hits, but it does seem extremely stupid of them.

I don't think they are tbh. A Tory grandiose breaking rank and calling for an election can only mean one thing, whatever they said in public. They must be considering it in the background, and are testing the waters.

 

[Kentonio]

I don't think they are tbh. A Tory grandiose breaking rank and calling for an election can only mean one thing, whatever they said in public. They must be considering it in the background, and are testing the waters.

They've left it a bit late to be honest. Brexit negotiations are about to start, and that could be really murky water depending on how it transpires.

 

[12OunceEpilogue]

I absolutely don't understand why the Tories are election shy at the moment. They've basically stolen the ground from under UKIP (except amongst Labour heartland areas, where UKIP would actually take votes from Labour anyway) and they're streets ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems in every way. They're also facing the risk of taking a massive kick in the face once Brexit negotiations get properly underway.

I know the rules changed on holding snap elections (they need 2/3's of MPs to vote in favour of an election now or a vote of no confidence apparently), but they could have insisted a new mandate was required post referendum and basically bullied Labour into going along with it.

I'm glad they didn't, because now the next election will be after the Brexit fallout hits, but it does seem extremely stupid of them.

I think May is backing herself to still be riding relatively high in the polls and, as Labour have indicated will be the case, facing Corbyn's Labour in the 2020 election. Assuming she'll win that easily, she can get through as tricky a couple of years pretty much any postwar PM has had without an effective parliamentary opposition and still have a great chance of increasing her majority in 2020.

 

[Unmutual]

I absolutely don't understand why the Tories are election shy at the moment. They've basically stolen the ground from under UKIP (except amongst Labour heartland areas, where UKIP would actually take votes from Labour anyway) and they're streets ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems in every way. They're also facing the risk of taking a massive kick in the face once Brexit negotiations get properly underway.

I know the rules changed on holding snap elections (they need 2/3's of MPs to vote in favour of an election now or a vote of no confidence apparently), but they could have insisted a new mandate was required post referendum and basically bullied Labour into going along with it.

I'm glad they didn't, because now the next election will be after the Brexit fallout hits, but it does seem extremely stupid of them.

One thing's for sure, they wouldn't do it before A50 was triggered, just in case a party campaigning to stop Brexit got the wind in their sails and nailed most of that 48%. Extremely unlikely, but the eurosceptic Tories have been plotting for 3 decades, they're not going to take risks now. If there is an early General Election it'll be after A50 is triggered but before the negotiations begin in earnest. Which means if we reach the summer recess without Parliament being asked to vote for an election, we probably won't see one til 2020. I wouldn't totally rule out a vote in late spring for an October election though.

 

[711]

Just a point 'snap elections' are impossible today thanks to the fixed term parliament act.

To have an early election, may would have to hold, and win, a vote of no confidence in her own government.

Or Labour propose a vote of no confidence and enough Tories support them to win. The fixed term parliament act is pretty meaningless really.

 

[berbatrick]

 

[Ubik]

Why is Corbyn forgetting to ask questions at PMQs.

 

[Smores]

Wow that was an horrendous PMQ from May. She really didn't learn a lot from Cameron at all.

When asked about the blackhole now created her response "If Labour care so much about balancing the books, why do they want to borrow £500bn?"

Fecking juvenile and considering it was over a 2bn budget blackhole i cant see that going down well.

 

[12OunceEpilogue]

Why is Corbyn forgetting to ask questions at PMQs.

He was wrong-footed by the u-turn, which was timed by the Tories to do exactly that. Of course they're perfectly entitled to time their announcements, even of bad/inconvenient news, to be as advantageous to them as possible and Corbyn has walked into the trap.

If the government are truly as bad as Corbyn makes out, and I have more than a little sympathy with that viewpoint, he should have attack lines coming out of his arse, but he's too leaden-footed to react.

 

[JON.B]

Was Corbyn replaced with a robot today? Terrible delivery from him yet again and and his questions, well they weren't really questions.

Angus Robertson really is a detestable little scroat.

 

[12OunceEpilogue]

Was Corbyn replaced with a robot today? Terrible delivery from him yet again and and his questions, well they weren't really questions.

Angus Robertson really is a detestable little scroat.

Yet he's able to land more telling blows on May with two questions than Corbyn can manage with six.

 

[JON.B]

Yet he's able to land more telling blows on May with two questions than Corbyn can manage with six.

Yes you're right, which shows how ineffective Corbyn is as a leader. Just can't stand the arrogance Robertson shows and his tunnelled vision on a Scottish referendum.

 

[Ubik]

He was wrong-footed by the u-turn, which was timed by the Tories to do exactly that. Of course they're perfectly entitled to time their announcements, even of bad/inconvenient news, to be as advantageous to them as possible and Corbyn has walked into the trap.

If the government are truly as bad as Corbyn makes out, and I have more than a little sympathy with that viewpoint, he should have attack lines coming out of his arse, but he's too leaden-footed to react.

Governments are usually too worried about announcing massive u turns before the PM gets unloaded by the Commons because Oppositions are usually competent enough to embarrass them at the dispatch box. Unfortunately under the current embarrassment leading the opposition, they can bet decent money that he'll screw it up.

 

[Ubik]

Osborne to edit the Evening Standard

 

[Untied]

Osborne to edit the Evening Standard

He's currently juggling more jobs than some people have in their entire career

 

[Untied]

Seriously though, is there no prohibition from being a sitting MP and EDITING A NEWSPAPER (the UKs fourth largest)