General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time

[villain]

Some event that gets the young vote out would be handy.

I'm not holding my breath, but I think this will be the highest turnout for young voters in quite some time.

 

[altodevil]

Clive Lewis seems like a possible compromise but I'm not sure the centrist-wing will be too keen on him.

He fancies PR so would get my vote. I still reckon Corbyn stays on, with centrist Labour/Tories either joining Libs or starting a new party on a PR platform.

 

[Cheesy]

They most certainly will and as relevant as it is I'm not sure it'll do the job.

Aye, I'm not sure it will. Unsure what the best option is either; can see why Corbyn's supporters would be pissed off if his wing of the party are ousted, but at the same time the centrists probably have some fair points, and I still think a defeat's a poor result for Labour. If everyone could act like adults, perhaps they'd reach an alright compromise...

 

[Untied]

I do wonder what it'll mean if it ends up close. Will he stay on and will the party try to maintain this momentum or still try to revert to the centre and argue amongst itself.

Labour will still have lost so the PLP arguably will have been proven right but that doesnt mean a shift is needed. Back to the same post Ed situation basically

I'm obviously biased here but I think it looks like Corbynism was the right direction. The manifesto is great, there's no doubt about that. Far from the suicide note of '83. The lead among the young is nuts, even if the turnout ends up not being great, in 4-5 years time you try to build on that by keeping the current 18-24s on board and appealing to the new ones. You do not revert back to Blair/Brown/Milibandism.

 

[Smores]

To be fair, most would probably argue that while Corbyn's ran a fantastic campaign, he's benefited from being up against an appalling Prime Minister who's running a horrendously bad campaign. And while the increased vote share is a positive, it's partly because of the decline of the Lib Dems - had they been sitting on 7% in the Blair era, Labour might have been hitting 50%.

Definitely true but the public's reaction to the policies and language is key. The idea of what electable looks like seems a very difficult and fluid one to settle on.

 

[DOTA]

Aye, I'm not sure it will. Unsure what the best option is either; can see why Corbyn's supporters would be pissed off if his wing of the party are ousted, but at the same time the centrists probably have some fair points, and I still think a defeat's a poor result for Labour. If everyone could act like adults, perhaps they'd reach an alright compromise...

That's the dream.

Alas, first New Labour ignored the wishes of their membership for many years and then the membership took their chance to ignore the wishes of the PLP.

 

[Smores]

I'm obviously biased here but I think it looks like Corbynism was the right direction. The manifesto is great, there's no doubt about that. Far from the suicide note of '83. The lead among the young is nuts, even if the turnout ends up not being great, in 4-5 years time you try to build on that by keeping the current 18-24s on board and appealing to the new ones. You do not revert back to Blair/Brown/Milibandism.

I suppose it depends on what state the economy is in, if the economy dives post Brexit a more centrist platform may be the better option.

Still it'll probably be a landslide, i shouldn't trust the polls

 

[Sweet Square]

I'm obviously biased here but I think it looks like Corbynism was the right direction. The manifesto is great, there's no doubt about that. Far from the suicide note of '83. The lead among the young is nuts, even if the turnout ends up not being great, in 4-5 years time you try to build on that by keeping the current 18-24s on board and appealing to the new ones. You do not revert back to Blair/Brown/Milibandism.

Pretty much this. This election manifesto will have to be the ground bases for anyone who wants to be leadership candidate.


Personally I think the PLP are fecked, as the members can say that the laughable bad coup and attacks stopped Labour getting that extra bit in the polls(If the polls are right and it's a close election), wither this is right or wrong isn't really the point. It's a stronger than anything the PLP will have.

 

[montpelier]

I'm not holding my breath, but I think this will be the highest turnout for young voters in quite some time.

There is the ''the old have wrecked our futures'' perspective caused by the Brexit vote which is a new factor, perhaps
(not convinced meself tbh, )

 

[DenisIrwin]

 

[Silva]

 

[Sweet Square]

For a party that's the most open to decriminalising drugs - you would think, that they are socially liberal.

Really odd. You would have image there's going to be some serious talks about the failing of them this elections, Farron again today couldn't say that gay sex isn't a sin(I image because he believes it is).

Awful awful party.

I say things like that...

The pill has put oestrogen in to the water. It's great! We all have bigger tits, more empathy and more open mindedness of our sexuality.

I know I can't see the problem.

 

[villain]

 

[RedSky]

 

[DenisIrwin]

Pay no attention to polls. Like this one...

 

[Kentonio]

I'm struggling to understand how the Tories will manage a landslide victory. I think they will be in power but I just hope Labout and other parties (bar ukip) are resilient enough to challenge it.

You know, in some ways it could be the best possible outcome for Labour (and by extension the people) for it to be a very slim Tory win. It would make the Tories and May look utterly ridiculous for holding an expensive election that delivers basically no change in parliament, they would remain responsible for the damage that hits with Brexit, and the narrow majority and weakened government reputatation would make it very hard for them to push through any more severe austerity measures. Corbyn meanwhile would have proven that he's a viable leader, and he could spend the next 5 years building up Labour as a real force again. If things went too badly we could even end up with a quicker election via a vote of no confidence.

I'd still be very happy if there's a hung parliament, but it worries me that the Tories might manage to slither out of taking responsibility for what they've set in motion, and then transfer the blame onto the left.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Live a little, go for the crazy radical left wing option. How do you know you won't like it if you don't try it?

Nobody will like the hangover though, which is when the Tories get elected again and have to institute significant cuts because Corbyn's economic plan was a fiasco. Bills and taxes will have been rising all the while as well. This is assuming that our increased national debt doesn't collide with another financial crash of course.

 

[QuackQuack]

You know, in some ways it could be the best possible outcome for Labour (and by extension the people) for it to be a very slim Tory win. It would make the Tories and May look utterly ridiculous for holding an expensive election that delivers basically no change in parliament, they would remain responsible for the damage that hits with Brexit, and the narrow majority and weakened government reputatation would make it very hard for them to push through any more severe austerity measures. Corbyn meanwhile would have proven that he's a viable leader, and he could spend the next 5 years building up Labour as a real force again. If things went too badly we could even end up with a quicker election via a vote of no confidence.

I'd still be very happy if there's a hung parliament, but it worries me that the Tories might manage to slither out of taking responsibility for what they've set in motion, and then transfer the blame onto the left.

The results in 2015 really left me so depressed as I didn't think it would turn out like that. This year I am expecting a majority tory government. That said we live in a world where people voted to leave the EU and Trump got elected, anything can happen.

 

[RedSky]

Nobody will like the hangover though, which is when the Tories get elected again and have to institute significant cuts because Corbyn's economic plan was a fiasco. Bills and taxes will have been rising all the while as well. This is assuming that our increased national debt doesn't collide with another financial crash of course.

The current Tory economic plan is a fiasco Nick given that the National Debt hasn't down down despite the heavy cuts in Public Services.

 

[Silva]

Pay no attention to polls. Like this one...

IT'S ON!

 

[Ubik]

Sunday papers will be fun.

 

[Pexbo]

I've absolutely no idea what will happen in the election, in my heart of hearts I know that the Conservatives will probably win it by at least a 10 point lead but it's interesting nonetheless that the polls have shifted so much over the last fortnight.

People treat them as if they are merely guesswork on what people might do, a figure pulled out of the head of an expert but the fact is that they are based on collected data. 2+ weeks ago 15-20% more people were voting Conservative than Labour and that gap has now closed so that surely has to mean something and will be reflected on the day?

 

[Kag]

There's a small part of me that won't be too disappointed with the eventual Tory outcome. They'll hang themselves in the next few years regardless.

Labour, with similar policies, the same attitude and a stronger leader could do very, very well in the future. I think Brexit is going to feck the governing party up regardless, so (to steal a barmy phrase from the FF) maybe a loss is a win after all...

That, or I'm gloriously deluded. I'd hate for Labour to go on and win this and then be effectively hamstrung by the Brexit process.

 

[Cheesy]

The current Tory economic plan is a fiasco Nick given that the National Debt hasn't down down despite the heavy cuts in Public Services.

Not to mention they didn't bother their arses to cost their manifesto.

 

[Cheesy]

Funny seeing all the leaders in a poor position there, relatively speaking. Worst bunch in a good while.

 

[DenisIrwin]

Edit: While this might not be strictly "on topic", I suspect it will have a bearing. A lot of people will draw comparisons between Bernie's campaign and "what might have happened" with Corbyn's.

Edit 2:

 

[Dobba]

How the feck is Nuttall on a satisfied rating of 18?

 

[Unmutual]

123456

 

[rcoobc]

Live a little, go for the crazy radical left wing option. How do you know you won't like it if you don't try it?

I mean, I'm primarily a lefty.

But I like things to move slowly over time. Doing everything Labour want to do in a single term would be really difficult to get right. And all on the back drop of Brexit.

My Manifesto Review, spoiler ed as its massive

Spoiler

What I like:

Deliver safe staffing levels in the NHSand reduce waiting lists
Vital.

Scrap NHS pay cap
Vital.

NHS will receive more than £30bn in extra funding over the next parliament
Great

Mental health budgets will be ring-fenced, and Labour will ensure all children in secondary schools have access to a counselling service.
Vote Labour

Scrap Conservatives' Brexit White Paper and replace with "fresh negotiating priorities" with strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the single market and customs union
Good. This should have been bigger.

International students will not be included in immigration numbers, but the party will crack down on "fake colleges".
Seriously, even the Tories will start doing this soon. International Students pay excruciating fees! They are vital for our universities.

Guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK and work to "secure reciprocal rights" for UK citizens elsewhere in the EU
Good.

Keep EU-derived laws on workers' rights, equality, consumer rights and environmental protections
Good.

Re-introduce the 50p rate of tax on the highest earners (above £123,000) and Income tax rate 45p on £80,000 and above
Good. Possibly this should be done in another way, but we need to raise receipts one way or another


Reintroduce maintenance grants for university students and abolish university tuition fees
If they can do this, it would be amazing

A National Education Service for England to incorporate all forms of education
Possibly the type of thing that needs to be cross-party to be done properly

Promise to reduce class sizes to "less than 30" for five, six, and seven-year-olds
Great. Pretty much every party has promised this over the years.

Ensure that 60% of the UK's energy comes from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030
Sadly, there has been nearly no mention of this. Of course it's quite a generic "look at us, we're green!" commitment that is so far away, everyone will have forgotten about it. But still, important.

A ban on fracking
Again, no one is talking about this.

Nuclear power "will continue to be part of the UK energy supply"
A surprising but important commitment.

More free childcare, expanding free provisions for two, three and four year olds
Good.

Hire 10,000 new police officers, 3,000 new firefighters
Needed.

Accept the EU referendum result and "build a close new relationship with the EU" prioritising jobs and and workers' rights
Good.

Free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees.
Schools meals are awful, but this can only be a good thing

Maximum pay ratios of 20:1 to be rolled out in public sector
Now that is a good one

Ban unpaid internships
I'd agree with that, even if it's just at the apprentice rate, it's clearly needed. Interns in Mexico get paid, for christ sake.

Give all workers equal rights from day one, whether part-time or full-time, temporary or permanent
Pretty much already the case anyway

Abolish employment tribunal fees - so that people have access to justice
Makes sense

Legislate to ban letting agency fees for tenants, and look at giving the Mayor of London power to give London renters "additional security"
I like it.

Make 4,000 additional homes available for rough sleepers to end homelessness.
Sure, sounds like a good idea.

End hospital car parking charges
I'd rather just the NHS own the car parks, and charge a high rate, with discounts for frequent fliers. But okay.

Homeowners will be offered interest free loans to improve their properties
Can see the logic in that. Everyone benefits in the long term. But room for abuse.

Guarantee help to buy funding until 2027 and give locals buying their first home "first dibs on new homes built in their area"
Would like this to go further, but important.

An end to the so-called "rape clause" - part of the policy of restricting child tax credits to the first two children in a family. It means mothers who have a third child as a result of rape can be exempted, but would have to provide evidence in order to do so
Can you believe the Conservatives created a rape clause.

A review into reforming council tax and business rates, in favour of options such as a land value tax
Lib Dems, is that you?

Deliver universal superfast broadband availability by 2022
Why not.

Scrap quarterly reporting for businesses with a turnover of under £85,000.
Could see this being helpful

One million people will be taken off NHS waiting lists by "guaranteeing access to treatment within 18 weeks"
Not really explained how, but good.

Cuts to bereavement support payment will be scrapped, as will the bedroom tax and the "punitive sanctions regime"
Seems weird the BBC have thrown these three in together. But yeah, sure.

Rejects" proposal to increase state pension age further
This is a weird one. Ask any young person in industries like finance and they'll say, they do not think our generation will get a state pension at all (or rather, it will be reserved only for the poorest). I'm all for this, as long as it doesn't bring a collapse do the whole thing.

Maintaining access to the EU's internal energy market and retaining access to nuclear research programme Euratom will be a priority in Brexit negotiations.
Can't argue with that.

Extend high speed rail link HS2 to Scotland
Arguably good or bad. Arguably vital. The limitations of HS2 and HS1 become more pronounced with time, but still important.

Build a new Brighton main line for the SouthEast
This is why we love Labour.

Build Crossrail 2 - to run north-south through London between Hertfordshire and Surrey - "to ensure our capital continues to prosper"
Bit confused by this pledge, but why not.

Recognise the need for additional airport capacity in the South East (but there's no mention of Heathrow).
I agree, expand Gatwick and Heathrow (but not over the M25)... but actually try to reduce the number of planes in Heathrow over time, and move some of the services to Gatwick. Then build a fast 15 minute shuttle between the two to allow both to act as a joint hub. That's what I'd do anyway.

Support the renewal of the Trident submarine system
The cost of trident is around £2 bn per year. Much of that at least goes back into the UK economy in the form of jobs, although it's still a waste on something that will hopefully never be used. Government spending is around £750 bn per year. The GDP of the UK was £2.2 trillion in 2005. In a way, Trident is pointless. The biggest nuclear threat to this country isn't over states, it's terrorist organisations (along with chemical and biological attacks), or maybe rogue foreign security services. And unlike what Piers Morgan believes, Trident does not offer Tactical Nuclear capabilities, (or if it does, it does so barely). But in another way, it's important to maintain the status quo that's allowed peace to prosper. It can also be used as a bargaining chip in future...

Work with international partners and the UN on multilateral disarmament "to create a nuclear-free world"
... Such as in this situation.

Insulate the homes of disabled veterans for free.
Yeah, why not.

Labour will not "scapegoat migrants" and will not set a cap on immigration, describing targets as "bogus"
Good!

Maintain UK's leading research role by seeking to stay part of Horizon 2020 and its successor programmes
Great.

Seek to maintain membership of European organisations which offer benefits to the UK such as Euratom and the European Medicines Agency
Great.

Will not allow Brexit to be used as an excuse to undercut UK farmers and flood Britain's food chain with cheap and inferior produce.
Had never even considered this. Sure.

A "meaningful" role for Parliament throughout Brexit negotiations
Sure

Bring the railways back into public ownership as franchises expire
Rail does seem to be one of the few things that should be nationalised. Even many on the right agree with that (Peter Hitchens). My one worry is in major rail investment, what will the impact of self driving cars in 20 years time. Could have gone in indifferent or good.

Regain control of energy supply networks through the alteration of operator license conditions, and transition to a publicly owned, decentralised energy system
I was going to put this in the indifferent pile, but it does look good. Possibly. Need more info about it.

Boost wages of 5.7m people earning less than minimum wage to £10 an hour by 2020
This could have been an indifferent one, or a good one for me. Min Wage is set to be £9 per hour by 2020 anyway. But, it is interesting how this could affect the economy. A 48 hour working week at £10 per hour is £25k a year. £25k a year, as the new effective minimum wage. Will this push the middle wages upwards.. If the economy improves, I think it would.

Deliver rail electrification "including in Wales and the South West".
Sure. Kind of bland, but good.

Indifferent:

Build over one million more homes, with at least half for social rent
I think I'd rather just increase the private sector houses being built to be honest, and reduce the housing cost over time in other ways. The two issues for me are; jealousy amongst the private renters, and neighbourhoods where lots of 'noisy' people in one place. This thread probably sums up my thoughts on it. That's not to say it couldn't be done right though.

Guarantee triple lock for pensioner incomes
This will make virtually no difference to individual pensioners, and cost a fortune. Sad as it is to say, our ageing population is causing a huge strain on the NHS, a huge strain in providing pensions for everyone, so increasing those pensions themselves is a triple cost. If it can be afforded, great. If not...

An end to zero-hours contracts to guarantee workers a "number of hours each week
In the retail sector, this would be a great thing. No reason for Sports Direct to be using zero hours contracts at all. In other sectors though, banning them would be madness, and turn us into France.

Labour would slap a levy of 2.5 per cent on earnings above £330,000 and of five per cent on pay above £500,000.
Not sure about this one. 50% income tax, 2% Employees National Insurance, 13.8% Employers National Insurance, and now a 5% Levy... That's not to say I'm against the idea, but I would want to see caution.

Replace water system with a network of regional publicly-owned water companies
Why?

Reverse the privatisation of Royal Mail "at the earliest opportunity"
Why? I wasn't for RM to be privatised, but there is plenty of competition here, and traditional Letters will disappear over time, in favour of parcels. Even HMRC uses TNT and similar.

Create at least one publicly-owned energy company in every region of the UK, with public control of the transmission and distribution grids
Why?

Increase corporation tax to 26%
I think the affect on this by the right has been massively oversold. We would be middling in Europe for corporation tax, and still the lowest in the G7. But - raising corporation tax does tend to persuade companies to leave, and could actually *possibly* cause corporation tax rates to decrease. I'd put it back to 20%

£6.5bn from tax avoidance programme
The annual tax avoidance pledge.

Create a National Transformation Fund that will invest £250bn over 10 years in upgrading the economy
What does this mean? How will this work?

A National Investment Bank as part of a plan to provide £250bn of lending power over the next decade for infrastructure
Again, what does this mean?

Reinstate the lower small-business corporation tax rate
I don't think this will make any difference. Or only affect a few. Maybe it will help turn us into a German "small and medium sized business power house, but I doubt it. Also open to abuse.

Introduce four extra public holidays each year to mark national patron saints' days
Probably a good thing, but I'd rather have them on Monday or Friday

"Clamp down on bogus self-employment" and extend rights of employees to all workers - including shared parental pay
Don't know how this would work, and actually already happens.

Guarantee trade unions a right to access workplaces
Trade Unions in the manifesto

End the public sector pay cap
Highly depends where we are talking. NHS obviously yes.

Enforce all workers' rights to trade union representation at work
We already have this, which is why it says enforce... but I couldn't say if it's a problem or not.

Shifting the burden of proof, so the law assumes a worker is an employee unless the employer can prove otherwise.
Well, I can see how this would be abused. Not saying it's a good idea or not.

Devolve responsibility for skills to city regions or devolved administrations
How does this square with the National Education Service?

Reinstate housing benefit for under-21s
I think this might end up as a bad thing.

Guarantee state pension triple lock, as well as the winter fuel allowance and free bus passes
Again, aging population that have had all the advantages. If we can afford it, great.

Introduce an immediate emergency energy price cap to ensure the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below £1,000 per year
Won't work in the long term, without reforming the energy market.

A national review of local pubs to examine the causes for their large-scale demise, as well as establishing a joint taskforce that will consider future sustainability.
Pointless. Waste of money.

Establish a Scottish Investment Bank, with £20bn for local projects and Scotland's small businesses, creating work and stimulating the economy
I still don't understand what this is.

Build on the Development Bank of Wales using more than £10bn from Labour's new National Investment Bank
And again.

Dislike:

Repeal the Trade Union Act and roll out sectoral collective bargaining, whereby industries can negotiate agreement as a whole
Too much of a stick to beat Labour with. In the modern days of Health and Safety, is this necessary? Several European countries have this, and it does seem to hold them back, and add complexity to legislation.

Use public spending power to drive up standards, including only awarding public contracts to companies which recognise trade unions.
Sounds like something written by a trade union.

The Missing

- Reform the House of Lords

- Firm commitment to stay in the Single Market

- Legalise Weed

- Change Drug Policy

- Global Britain should negotiate free trade deals and borders to other Western countries.

- Commitments to fight Terrorism, and what methods and tools we give our police

There is a lot to like in the Manifesto, which is I guess why they did so well since launching it. I think the IFS criticism of the potential tax revenue increases is valid however. In some places, I don't think it goes far enough, or lacks details.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

The current Tory economic plan is a fiasco Nick given that the National Debt hasn't down down despite the heavy cuts in Public Services.

Certainly, the 2010 vision was shown to be flawed in its severity, and i honestly expected to see some noteworthy infrastructure spending in May's manifesto. However Corbyn has gone too far the other way, which will create its own enduring problems for the country. The renationalisations, the scale of increase to corporate rates during Brexit, the 11bn on uni tuition e.t.c. The former has been a whopping deception of the voters in particular, as the impression given by Labour is that there will be no cost to them personally. Patently false.

 

[DenisIrwin]

 

[montpelier]

I've absolutely no idea what will happen in the election, in my heart of hearts I know that the Conservatives will probably win it by at least a 10 point lead but it's interesting nonetheless that the polls have shifted so much over the last fortnight.

People treat them as if they are merely guesswork on what people might do, a figure pulled out of the head of an expert but the fact is that they are based on collected data. 2+ weeks ago 15-20% more people were voting Conservative than Labour and that gap has now closed so that surely has to mean something and will be reflected on the day?

The trends they show tend to be pretty concrete - Corbyn support is solid & strengthening, May's is drifting away slightly. Actual figures tend not to be great.

Remain were still favourites to win by 5% even after the vote had closed. Who's to say their carefully constructed model isn't up the spout this time too?

Having said that...

Unfortunately, I have a sense (a total guess) that May's rock solid support is a lot firmer than the Labour bedrock which is gonna cost Corbyn seats he should be winning while a decent showing elsewhere doesn't really help in winning more seats than he should have done anyway without the surge in support.

Where for Labour the story becomes increased vote in some places but they aren't particularly useful. The reverse for May, her pick ups (because I think they still exist) will make seats go her way.

 

[esmufc07]

You don't pay tax, you're on holiday!

Touché!

I'm back next week though.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Edit: While this might not be strictly "on topic", I suspect it will have a bearing. A lot of people will draw comparisons between Bernie's campaign and "what might have happened" with Corbyn's.

Hope he endorses Corbyn. They're very similar, albeit Corbyn is more of an actual socialist. But they tapped in to very similar movements. Two political parties which should be leftist pivoted to the centre to get elected leaving the electorate with the sense that the choice on offer between Left and Right is not much of a choice at all.

The same disillusionment basically, with both opposing the populist movements of the right wing which feed into the same phenomena (Trump/Brexit nationalism).

 

[Scrumpet]

How big a majority would you say May needs to get to justify having called the election?

 

[DenisIrwin]

Hope he endorses Corbyn. They're very similar, albeit Corbyn is more of an actual socialist. But they tapped in to very similar movements. Two political parties which should be leftist pivoted to the centre to get elected leaving the electorate with the sense that the choice on offer between Left and Right is not much of a choice at all.

The same disillusionment basically, with both opposing the populist movements of the right wing which feed into the same phenomena (Trump/Brexit nationalism).

Yes. I added a tweet with a short video to my post above.

 

[Raees]

Yup.

Its about momentum now, Corbyn is everywhere, and not as a joke, not as a broken man, but as the guy people are waiting for hours to see and listen to.

May is in hiding, has a candidate facing charges for electoral fraud, yesterday defended another candidate for claiming women getting raped is their own fault (she said it was in the past, irony given her attacks on corbyn) and has hitched her future on dorito mussolini, who just declared war on the entire planet.

I have never seen anything like this since devon loche failed to win the National.

#doritomussolini - that is genius

 

[Ubik]

How big a majority would you say May needs to get to justify having called the election?

At the start of the campaign, they'd have said anything under 80 would be a bit disappointing. Now, they'd probably snap your hand off for 50.

Was still the strategically correct thing to do mind, they just screwed it up.

 

[rcoobc]

I can no longer reply in this thread due to that long manifesto post I did... whoops!