Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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    194
  • Poll closed .
IWat said:
None of the concessions in anyway gave the UK the ability to reduce immigration though did they? They put some limits on when people coming could claim welfare, a lot of which would only have been in effect for 7 years. That's not what was asked for, that's not even a compromise, it gave the UK no means by which to reduce EU immigration.
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At what point does a migrant become entitled to welfare? Are they supposed to work in this nation but never be granted the same rights as natives? Not exactly fair is it to forever be a second class citizen.

The Tories never defended migration, came up with an arbitrary target for numbers and then expected the EU to play along with their politics to satisfy racists.
 
rcoobc said:
You can! It's easy! Maybe not within the strict rules of the European Union, but free movement doesn't depend on that. We can allow European nationals to live here permanently without the EU getting involved. And we can reduce immigration whilst doing it. How?

Keep "free" movement, but make the Personal Allowance something that is earned over time; not an automatic right.

Anyone from Europe can come to work here, but they would be paying a high level of tax, so wage deflation would be much less of a thing. And of course, because someone previously earning £18,000 a year would take home only £11k instead of £15.5k, immigration would be reduced. You can make certain vital jobs like Doctors, Nurses and Scientists automatically get the Personal Allowance, and even extend that to cherry pickers if you want...

Now before the Left jump on me as saying this is "modern slavery"; it's surely better than having a red-line "NO YOU CANT WORK OR LIVE HERE".

This is how the Left and Right has to come together to sort this mess out. Keep "Free" movement, but reduce the incentive for low wage (depreciating wage) workers to do so.

And whilst we are at it, why not open up free movement to the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and elsewhere? Increase the labour pool from 750 million, to over a billion. Cut red tape - allow employers to bring in workers from all these countries without needing to complete complicated Visas!

The UK Tax system is one of the most robust in the world. We don't need to create entire departments to sort out who can work here and who can't. Let the markets decide!!!
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That's unfair. Also the Whiteosphere, another shit idea
 
IWat said:
Yes, the Shane Ridge thing is stupid. I'm in no way advocating for something that harsh. I guess I am maybe looking at it through the lens that we'd have competent goverment and civil service capable of managing it properly and effectively. People that are already here, are already here. I'm not saying to go back through everyone and analyse if they should be able to stay.

Australia and a number of other countries have systems that looks at if a person coming to the country has skills in areas that the country requires as part of applying, it's not impossible to implement.
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The points based system isn't by any means terrible, but it is quite complicated.

Australia spends a huge amount of money on immigration prevention (largely due to the offshore detention program), and then there are a huge number of different Visas you need for different things. (2) (3)

Why does it need to be that complicated? I'm a believe in a small government (as small as possible whilst still giving us everything we need). How big is the department that sorts out who can live here and who cannot going to be?

- Will an EU Citizen living in the UK now, who goes away for 6 months, be allowed to return?
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his UK born children here?
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his non-UK born children here?
- Will an EU Citizen who marries a British citizen, takes his family abroad for 3 years, then returns to the UK, be allowed to come with them?
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to bring his foreign wife to the UK, if he earns enough money?

10% of the population in the UK are not British, and 14% of the population were not born here. 3 million people live here are EU Citizens. There are far too many fringe cases, to run immigration by looking at each case individually.

Now to be fair, Australias immigrant population far exceeds are own as a percentage (27% vs 15%)

But why does it have to be this complicated? We are putting off EU Doctors and Nurses, and making them want to leave.

Why not keep "free" movement, but create a tax system that runs the immigration system for us.
 
Mozza said:
That's unfair. Also the Whiteosphere, another shit idea
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Someone from the Left will think it's unfair, and someone from the Right will think it's not enough.

That's compromise.

And yeah I did choose those countries because they are the English speaking ones the likes of Dan Hannan usually bring up, but I'd happily extend it to the 40 other democratic western countries that have a GDP per Capita of say half the UK Average.
 
Mozza said:
At what point does a migrant become entitled to welfare? Are they supposed to work in this nation but never be granted the same rights as natives? Not exactly fair is it to forever be a second class citizen.

The Tories never defended migration, came up with an arbitrary target for numbers and then expected the EU to play along with their politics to satisfy racists.
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In my opinion, providing they have come to work in a job that the economy is in demand for, then they should have full access within a relatively short period of time. If they have come to apply for jobs we have an over-subscription for, they shouldn't be allowed in to work in the first place.

rcoobc said:
The points based system isn't by any means terrible, but it is quite complicated.

Australia spends a huge amount of money on immigration prevention (largely due to the offshore detention program), and then there are a huge number of different Visas you need for different things. (2) (3)

Why does it need to be that complicated? I'm a believe in a small government (as small as possible whilst still giving us everything we need). How big is the department that sorts out who can live here and who cannot going to be?

- Will an EU Citizen living in the UK now, who goes away for 6 months, be allowed to return?
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his UK born children here?
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his non-UK born children here?
- Will an EU Citizen who marries a British citizen, takes his family abroad for 3 years, then returns to the UK, be allowed to come with them?
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to bring his foreign wife to the UK, if he earns enough money?

10% of the population in the UK are not British, and 14% of the population were not born here. 3 million people live here are EU Citizens. There are far too many fringe cases, to run immigration by looking at each case individually.

Now to be fair, Australias immigrant population far exceeds are own as a percentage (27% vs 15%)

But why does it have to be this complicated? We are putting off EU Doctors and Nurses, and making them want to leave.

Why not keep "free" movement, but create a tax system that runs the immigration system for us.
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This is entirely my opinion.

- Will an EU Citizen living in the UK now, who goes away for 6 months, be allowed to return? - Yes providing they apply for the status that the goverment are proposing for existing EU citizens in the UK.
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his UK born children here? - Yes.
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his non-UK born children here? - Yes providing the type of work they are looking for is the type you can support children on. They could apply for citizenship after the required time period or would face the same restrictions when an adult.
- Will an EU Citizen who marries a British citizen, takes his family abroad for 3 years, then returns to the UK, be allowed to come with them? - Yes.
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to bring his foreign wife to the UK, if he earns enough money? - Providing he has the money to support her and she isn't looking for work in an area of the economy that is oversubscribed, I don't see a problem.

The thing with taxation is you end up having to do a lot of the same catagorisation when it comes to the jobs the economy needs also.

Another point, the average household income in Poland for example is roughly £13.75k, would removal of certain tax benefits really still make it an uneconomical decision?
 
IWat said:
What power is that?
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The unrestricted power to do whatever the hell we pleased with non-EU immigration, and the power to enforce rules such as 3 months without a job and you have to leave for EU immigrants. Which we never bothered enforcing.
 
@IWat Why the obsession with EU citizens, do you think that they are a burden?
 
JPRouve said:
@IWat Why the obsession with EU citizens, do you think that they are a burden?
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No. But in an unrestricted, imbalanced system elements can be, and this goes both ways, not just for people coming to the UK. From the Migration Observatory at Oxford Univesity http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....ngs/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/

The impacts of immigration on the labour market critically depend on the skills of migrants, the skills of existing workers, and the characteristics of the host economy.
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All my suggestions would do is make the system more effective at doing that, not sure how you can draw I think EU citizens as a collective are some kind of burden from that?
 
IWat said:
Another point, the average household income in Poland for example is roughly £13.75k, would removal of certain tax benefits really still make it an uneconomical decision?
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We don't want to make it uneconomical for everyone, we just want to reduce the downward pressure on wages. Someone earning £20k in Poland will probably have a much better lifestyle than someone earning £20k in the UK.

GDP per Capita (nominal) in the UK - £42,481
GDP per Capita (nominal) in Poland - £12,316
GDP per Capita (PPP) in the UK - £40,096
GDP per Capita (PPP) in Poland - £27,764

(all numbers from wikipedia)

So although GDP per Capita (which although is not the same as the average wage, is still a useful metric) is 3.44 times lower, it only "feels" like being 1.44 times lower - due to house prices, price of goods, etc.

So if an Eastern European worker was earning £18,720 in the UK (minimum wage at the maximum 48 hours per week), their take home pay would be £16011. If we say, that their rent and living costs were £10k, then they'd be left with £6k to save and take home.

Would removing the personal income tax allowance and personal national insurance allowance for people just entering the UK (you'd earn them back over time) really make a difference.. yes I think it would make a huge difference, reducing the take home pay to just £12.5k and realistically making them better off working in Eastern Europe (earn less, but it would be a much better standard of living).
 
IWat said:
No. But in an unrestricted, imbalanced system elements can be, and this goes both ways, not just for people coming to the UK. From the Migration Observatory at Oxford Univesity http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....ngs/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/



All my suggestions would do is make the system more effective at doing that, not sure how you can draw I think EU citizens as a collective are some kind of burden from that?
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But that's why I'm asking you:

It found that non-EU immigration was associated with a reduction in the employment of UK-born workers during 1995-2010. No statistically significant effects were found for EU immigration.
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The article somehow target non EU immigrants.
 
The point is

Creating a "Red Line" where we say; you can't work here, and you can't work here because you are Polish, and you are Italian... that's stupid and it's wrong.

At the same time, there are tens of thousands of families, maybe more, being split up because of the UK rules requiring them to earn £18,000-£25,000 to bring their husband or wife to this country. That isn't some far off future, that is here right now. It's one rule for the rich, and another rule for the poor.

(1) (2)

And families wanting to join their loved ones may have to pay excruciating fees

At the same time, English speaking people from other Western countries may find it difficult to come work here.

We need a system that isn't complicated, and doesn't cost tonnes of money, and doesn't stop families being together.

A taxation system works
 
IWat said:
In my opinion, providing they have come to work in a job that the economy is in demand for, then they should have full access within a relatively short period of time. If they have come to apply for jobs we have an over-subscription for, they shouldn't be allowed in to work in the first place.



This is entirely my opinion.

- Will an EU Citizen living in the UK now, who goes away for 6 months, be allowed to return? - Yes providing they apply for the status that the goverment are proposing for existing EU citizens in the UK.
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his UK born children here? - Yes.
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to keep his non-UK born children here? - Yes providing the type of work they are looking for is the type you can support children on. They could apply for citizenship after the required time period or would face the same restrictions when an adult.
- Will an EU Citizen who marries a British citizen, takes his family abroad for 3 years, then returns to the UK, be allowed to come with them? - Yes.
- Will an EU Citizen be allowed to bring his foreign wife to the UK, if he earns enough money? - Providing he has the money to support her and she isn't looking for work in an area of the economy that is oversubscribed, I don't see a problem.

The thing with taxation is you end up having to do a lot of the same catagorisation when it comes to the jobs the economy needs also.

Another point, the average household income in Poland for example is roughly £13.75k, would removal of certain tax benefits really still make it an uneconomical decision?
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So if you fall in love with someone who works in an oversubscribed area you are shit out of luck, great system, really shows your humanity.
 
rcoobc said:
Someone from the Left will think it's unfair, and someone from the Right will think it's not enough.

That's compromise.

And yeah I did choose those countries because they are the English speaking ones the likes of Dan Hannan usually bring up, but I'd happily extend it to the 40 other democratic western countries that have a GDP per Capita of say half the UK Average.
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No its unfair regardless of your political leaning, the right winger just doesn't give a feck that it is.

He picks them because they are full of white people
 
Mozza said:
No its unfair regardless of your political leaning, the right winger just doesn't give a feck that it is.

He picks them because they are full of white people
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But is it worse than not having free movement at all?
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
Sometimes he is some times he's a stubborn old goat.

He doesn't want hardship to continue but he isn't enamored with the idea that the present generation has it so much harder because he thinks you really don't.

He was almost three years old when the second world war broke out and didn't get to eat a banana until rationing ended when he was about fouteen. Trust me when I say you are not winning the hardship debate with him.
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Oh yeah I don't think that would work at all(And he might have a point about his generation). I just find it hard to understand why past generations who had to work most of their adult for such a basic necessity, want the same to happened to the younger generation(Although thats not much of problem as working with the end goal of owning your own home is a bit of a fantasy now)

It might be for another thread but I do think at a certain point(Long term social status, age or how they consume news) theres no convincing some people of moving even slightly in a different political outlook.
 
JPRouve said:
But that's why I'm asking you:



The article somehow target non EU immigrants.
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a) Increased unemployment is not the only potential effect of increased immigration in certain areas, it can also contribute to wage stagnation
b) I never once said immigration as a whole was a negative

Immigration can have a positive effect on aggregate demand, paticularly if the jobs are well paying and/or there wasn't someone from the UK that could do that job. When it comes to lower ends of the economy such as retail, customer service, care etc the jobs don't pay enough for the benefit in aggregate demand to be worthwhile and they are typically areas where there already which is backed up by the BOE http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf

Mozza said:
So if you fall in love with someone who works in an oversubscribed area you are shit out of luck, great system, really shows your humanity.
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Seems perfectly reasonable to me, my missus most likely wouldn't get through Australian immigration checks because she doesn't work in a nominated skilled occupation that they are looking for, do you know the solution? We wouldn't emigrate to Australia.
 
IWat said:
a) Increased unemployment is not the only potential effect of increased immigration in certain areas, it can also contribute to wage stagnation
b) I never once said immigration as a whole was a negative

Immigration can have a positive effect on aggregate demand, paticularly if the jobs are well paying and/or there wasn't someone from the UK that could do that job. When it comes to lower ends of the economy such as retail, customer service, care etc the jobs don't pay enough for the benefit in aggregate demand to be worthwhile and they are typically areas where there already which is backed up by the BOE http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf
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Once again, I'm trying to understand why you targeted EU citizens and why you consider that it's an important subject in a brexit thread when the two articles you posted say that UE citizens have a negligible impact on unemployment and wages.

6. Conclusions
This paper asks whether immigration has any impact on wages. It answers this question by
considering the variation of wages and immigration across regions, occupations, and time.
Occupations turn out to be a relatively important dimension. Once the occupational
breakdown is incorporated into a regional analysis of immigration, the immigrant-native
ratio has a significant small impact on the average occupational wage rates of that region.
Closer examination reveals that the biggest effect is in the semi/unskilled services sector,
where a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 2
percent reduction in pay. Where immigrants come from — EU or non-EU — appears to
have no impact on our economy wide results; with the impact within the semi/unskilled
services sector being small. These findings accord well with intuition and anecdotal
evidence, but do not seem to have been recorded previously in the empirical literature.
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It reads like you are making a mountain out of a molehill.
 
JPRouve said:
Once again, I'm trying to understand why you targeted EU citizens and why you consider that it's an important subject in a brexit thread when the two articles you posted say that UE citizens have a negligible impact on unemployment and wages.



It reads like you are making a mountain out of a molehill.
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Because the United Kingdom has control over its immigration policy for every country outside the EU, it doesn't for those within? The EU makes up nearly 50% of all immigration but the UK has no/very little control over that. Why would I focus on non-EU citizens when the UK already has the right to control that? When you consider non-EU migration has increased a bit over 150% since the early 90's and EU migration has increased at a far, far more rapid pace, paticularly since the inclusion of some Eastern European.

Net%20migration%20graph.PNG


Consider it an important subject? It was one of several points I made, in response to someone who had included the point within their post. I am not sure what your agenda is here? If you're trying to paint me as someone who has some kind of vendentta against people within the EU, then you're incorrect. All I would like is for all potential migrants to face the same process irrespective of where they come from, seems fair to me? I'd also be more than happy for some kind of streamlined process for EU applicants considering geographical proximity and fact they are likely to be a fair sized proportion on their own.
 
IWat said:
Because the United Kingdom has control over its immigration policy for every country outside the EU, it doesn't for those within? The EU makes up nearly 50% of all immigration but the UK has no/very little control over that. Why would I focus on non-EU citizens when the UK already has the right to control that? When you consider non-EU migration has increased a bit over 150% since the early 90's and EU migration has increased at a far, far more rapid pace, paticularly since the inclusion of some Eastern European.

Net%20migration%20graph.PNG


Consider it an important subject? It was one of several points I made, in response to someone who had included the point within their post. I am not sure what your agenda is here? If you're trying to paint me as someone who has some kind of vendentta against people within the EU, then you're incorrect. All I would like is for all potential migrants to face the same process irrespective of where they come from, seems fair to me? I'd also be more than happy for some kind of streamlined process for EU applicants considering geographical proximity and fact they are likely to be a fair sized proportion on their own.
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I don't have any agenda. I'm trying to understand the problems and solutions that you are trying to expose, since I failed to spot the specific problems and only saw the solutions I asked a you question and the more you answer, the more I see that there is no clear problems and it's just a control for control type of situation, which is perfectly fine.
 
JPRouve said:
I don't have any agenda. I'm trying to understand the problems and solutions that you are trying to expose, since I failed to spot the specific problems and only saw the solutions I asked a you question and the more you answer, the more I see that there is no clear problems and it's just a control for control type of situation, which is perfectly fine.
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You can't see why the UK might benefit by limiting immigration in areas where there is already job saturation?

original.jpg


UK wages have seen comparatively rubbish performance since the financial crisis, now I am not putting that at the foot of immigration, it's because of all kinds of reasons. You say a 2% deduction in some areas with a 10% increase in immigration is a molehill. Yet Britain has seen a huge surge as seen by the graph, and since 2005 had increased another 3.5% to 13.5%.

graph9_22.jpg
 
I think the argument is relatively simple. No FOM no unrestricted access to the single market. The more restrictions the UK want on immigration the more restrictions there need to be on the single market.
 
Typical May posturing. Why the hell does she have to wait even more to make this nonsense intervention and waste even more time after she threw away 3 months already.

It's as if the government is functioning independently of her instead of her being in charge. What shambles this Tory party is.

Amidst all of that the clown Rees-Mogg is being touted as a potential minister. The mind boggles.
 
Rightnr said:
Typical May posturing. Why the hell does she have to wait even more to make this nonsense intervention and waste even more time after she threw away 3 months already.

It's as if the government is functioning independently of her instead of her being in charge. What shambles this Tory party is.

Amidst all of that the clown Rees-Mogg is being touted as a potential minister. The mind boggles.
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I have a terrible record of predicting U.K. elections, but I'd stake a fortune that that ridiculous tit will never win a general election.
 
Kentonio said:
Mysterious..

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...nt-intervention-guy-verhofstadt-a7929526.html
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Both sides just seem utterly useless. Some of the posturing from Britain over the bill etc has been stupid and it's taken over a year for us to even remotely get our shit together. The EU are being silly over this EU citizens within the UK still coming under the ECJ expectation and expecting the UK to accept a bill without any negotiation over what parts of what it is paying for it is going to retain access to until 2020.
 
IWat said:
Both sides just seem utterly useless. Some of the posturing from Britain over the bill etc has been stupid and it's taken over a year for us to even remotely get our shit together. The EU are being silly over this EU citizens within the UK still coming under the ECJ expectation and expecting the UK to accept a bill without any negotiation over what parts of what it is paying for it is going to retain access to until 2020.
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The EU are only being silly if you think they have a huge stake in getting a substantial deal put together with the UK. Personally I think if they get a deal over the EU citizens in the UK, and the UK citizens in the EU, along with a decent exit bill, they probably won't lose much sleep over the rest.
 
Kentonio said:
The EU are only being silly if you think they have a huge stake in getting a substantial deal put together with the UK. Personally I think if they get a deal over the EU citizens in the UK, and the UK citizens in the EU, along with a decent exit bill, they probably won't lose much sleep over the rest.
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It's mutually beneficial for both sides, more so the UK yes. But you can't forget the Eurozone was only a few years ago on the edge of the abyss. Greece, Italy and Portugal are rocking some monstrous public debt as a result. They could do without the economic boat being rocked at all.
 
I think the best way for the EU-UK to act is to mastermind an orderly divorce. Once out of the EU the UK can shape its own future and negotiate a new trade deal with the EU
 
Silva said:
I'm pretty sure someone from the PM's office said they're going to stage a walk out at some point in September. Some people in the city are going to make a killing with the next round of currency fluctuations and stock collapses.
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Like her husband.
 
IWat said:
Seems perfectly reasonable to me, my missus most likely wouldn't get through Australian immigration checks because she doesn't work in a nominated skilled occupation that they are looking for, do you know the solution? We wouldn't emigrate to Australia.
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I'm not talking about people choosing to emigrate together somewhere. You'd set up a system that stops your partner joining you in the country of your birth
 
Silva said:
I'm pretty sure someone from the PM's office said they're going to stage a walk out at some point in September. Some people in the city are going to make a killing with the next round of currency fluctuations and stock collapses.
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Well, if there's any truth to that, this country and its PM has lost its mind. Why is this female dinosaur allowed to implement her ideas from the 1950s in the 21st century is beyond me. Even worse if any of the sensible Tories support this charade.
 
Silva said:
I'm pretty sure someone from the PM's office said they're going to stage a walk out at some point in September. Some people in the city are going to make a killing with the next round of currency fluctuations and stock collapses.
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I hope the EU will anticipate that by saying that if the UK leaves the negotiation tables then it shouldn't bother itself returning to it. There again, if the UK does return to the negotiation table after staging such stunt then its hand will further weakened
 
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