German Elections 2017

Rightnr said:
It seems the Brexit trend of the less foreigners you have living around you, the likelier you are to be afraid of or be resentful of immigration is present in Germany. Hardly surprising given it is so much easier to scare people who do not come into contact with 'aliens' on a day-to-day basis.
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I think that's BS TBH. Having an endless flows of (mostly) unskilled, traumatised and poorly educated immigrants at your doorstep is challenging. I got a mate who lives in Marsa were immigrants shit on the streets, are drunk day and night and harass their wives/daughters simply because wearing skirts is interpreted by them as being prostitutes. Not to forget that there's tangible intel that say that terrorists are using the immigration flow to bring terrorists into Europe.

We have the duty to save these people from dying but lets not kid ourselves in thinking that any resistance towards this endless and uncontrolled flow is irrational. There's a reason why every country (Europe, ME, Africa) in the world would rather see them move elsewhere then remain in their backyard.
 
fcbforever said:
What a load of bullshit. Leaving the EU would be suicide for Poland, even the dumbasses ruling atm know that. There's zero backing for that in the population. Similar in Hungary. GB and brexit was a special case. Most things the EU got blame for there aren't even in EU responsibility. There's isn't really anything the EU could have done to change that result.

As for Ukraine, if you would have put even the most limited amount of effort into your cute little rant, you would have realized that Crimea was already officially annexed by Russia more than a year before the refugee crisis started. Why do people don't want to go to Russia? Because it's poor as feck

As for what Merkel did: please, elaborate the alternatives she had that very day despite shooting people down at the border. Let's not forget that the influx of people died down pretty shortly afterwards and is barely an issue today, apart for people desperately searching for issues to support their respective agendas.
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Well, not 'zero' backing in Hungary. The majority would be against leaving the EU, for sure; we're not THAT stupid. But according to the latest surveys that I could find, 9% believes that being part of the EU is a bad thing for Hungary. Not a huge amount, and actually went down from the year before but still. Just look at what's happening in Catalonia: public opinion can change very quickly.
 
Cheesy said:
Probably just the fact that rural areas tend to be more right-wing with fewer immigrants and the AfD are very, very right-wing.
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I think in this case it's quite clearly down to east/west differences. Even in Eastern German cities like Dresden, Leipzig, Rostock, the AfD scored ~1.5-3 times as high as in most rural parts of Western Germany. It only gets closer in some southern parts, especially Bayern (where it also has to be kept in mind that many right-wing voters traditionally vote CSU).

For everyone interested in a breakdown:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deuts...-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html
(click at 'Zweitstimme')
 
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Blackwidow said:
Where the most foreigners live:
DKj4r8OW4AA81M-.jpg


Where the AFD got the most votes:

DKj4r8OWkAAJHXp.jpg
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What constitutes a foreigner in that graphic?
 
Blackwidow said:
Where the most foreigners live:
DKj4r8OW4AA81M-.jpg


Where the AFD got the most votes:

DKj4r8OWkAAJHXp.jpg
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Happens to be the case in most developed countries.
Saw an interview with a woman in Dresden.
She claimed things were better during the communist regime because everyone was white and she doesn't want her children/grandchildren growing up in a multi-cultural society.
This was during the height of that Pegida nonsense.
Fared Zakeria had a documentary on the concept. Vast majority of Americans who harboured fears of Islam had never met a Muslim before.
 
Adisa said:
Happens to be the case in most developed countries.
Saw an interview with a woman in Dresden.
She claimed things were better during the communist regime because everyone was white and she doesn't want her children/grandchildren growing up in a multi-cultural society.
This was during the height of that Pegida nonsense.
Fared Zakeria had a documentary on the concept. Vast majority of Americans who harboured fears of Islam had never met a Muslim before.
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I remember an AfD supporter was asked on the Heute Show a year ago or so when he last saw a muslim. The last occurance he could remember was years before in fecking Armenia.
 
11101 said:
What constitutes a foreigner in that graphic?
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It's based on the last zensus and shows people with migration background. Migration background is defined by the German statistics office as "people hving been born without a German passport or at least one parent being born without a German passport". So basically, if you have been born with a German passport in 1980, your mother is German, but your father an Italian having migrated here in 1960 and having been naturalized in 1970, you would show up as a foreigner in that graphic.

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrationshintergrund
 
fcbforever said:
It's based on the last zensus and shows people with migration background. Migration background is defined by the German statistics office as "people hving been born without a German passport or at least one parent being born without a German passport". So basically, if you have been born with a German passport in 1980, your mother is German, but your father an Italian having migrated here in 1960 and having been naturalized in 1970, you would show up as a foreigner in that graphic.

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrationshintergrund
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So similar to the UK then. Turkeys tend not to vote for Christmas. It's not really surprising areas with lots of immigrants/descendants of immigrants vote against anti-immigration parties.
 
So it's now a CDU-FDP-Greens or (less likely) back to CDU-SPD or there will be early election? I hope the first scenario materalizes because it keeps AfD as a lesser party in the Bundestag.

I just don't get the melodramatic headlines in media over the AfD gains, they got just short of the 5% cut-off in 2013, and they've been polling between 9 and 14% for almost two years. It's nothing shocking compared to other populists' gains in 2016.
 
fcbforever said:
Eh...what? No. What the feck is your agenda here. They do live predominantly in the west
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images

Relative frequency of Russian citizenship at the district level in 2014 in relation to other foreign populations

I'm sure most Russian-Germans (German citizens/voters of Russian descent) still live in the east.
 
United_We_Stand said:
images

Relative frequency of Russian citizenship at the district level in 2014 in relation to other foreign populations

I'm sure most Russian-Germans (German citizens/voters of Russian descent) still live in the east.
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Wrong kind of Russians here friend. We are talking Spätaussiedler, that's something entirely different.

Also your gespickt is relativevand thus useless. 100 people of russian decent will get a district geeen in your map if it's populated by 100k people but 200 will be shown as brown when they live among 400k. If you use statistics, do it properly.
 
fcbforever said:
Eh...what? No. What the feck is your agenda here. They do live predominantly in the west.
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No agenda, just don't pick one small group and use it to distract from all the others. It's quite obvious areas with high immigrant populations will vote for parties favourable to immigration.

I dont know what your criteria for the ideal Russian is but all evidence that i can see suggest the majority live in the East, such as above.
 
11101 said:
No agenda, just don't pick one small group and use it to distract from all the others. It's quite obvious areas with high immigrant populations will vote for parties favourable to immigration.

I dont know what your criteria for the ideal Russian is but all evidence that i can see suggest the majority live in the East, such as above.
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The graphic above is meaningless. It doesn't show absolute population. And sure they will, because they actually know foreign people and that there isn't a problem with them.
 
fcbforever said:
Wrong kind of Russians here friend. We are talking Spätaussiedler, that's something entirely different.

Also your gespickt is relativevand thus useless. 100 people of russian decent will get a district geeen in your map if it's populated by 100k people but 200 will be shown as brown when they live among 400k. If you use statistics, do it properly
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I'm aware of the difference between spätaussiedler and the Russian nationals shown in the gespickt I shared. But I think the gespickt still somehow applies to both categories.
I think I put it wrong when I said "most Russian-Germans live in the east", it's no brainer that more spätaussiedler live in NRW, Bayern, Hessen or BW than in Thuringen or MV. My point was clear, the percentage (not number) of spätaussiedler to the general population is higher in the east.
So what I'm saying is that the lower HDI, the less diverse population and the Russian factor in the east have played a major role in the rise of AfD in eastern states.
 
Federal elections in Niedersachsen. The SPD is the winner (first time strongest party since 20 years). Yet their coalition government with the green party lost their majority.
Afd and fdp are in the parliament. DieLinke got probably not over 5% and is out. The greens lost many votes.



No idea which coalition is going to be viable, because the fpd doesn't seem to fancy 3-party coalitions and nobody is going to work with the afd.
 
So apparently they haven’t got a govt yet (no coalition agreed), and another general election likely?!
 
Member 5225 said:
So apparently they haven’t got a govt yet (no coalition agreed), and another general election likely?!
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No. Coalition negotiations were intentionally drawn out due to the schedule. The fdp already gave up on almost all the liberal red lines. They are selling out before it starts. I am so happy that I didn't vote for this assholes.
Green party and Merkel could start tomorrow. Only the power-struggle in the CSU and the pressure on Seehofer removes some wiggle room but a lot needs to happen for them to do more than bark.
Germany has a record budget and that's how they'll manager to come to an agreement: throw money at everyone's core clients.
 
PedroMendez said:
No. Coalition negotiations were intentionally drawn out due to the schedule. The fdp already gave up on almost all the liberal red lines. They are selling out before it starts. I am so happy that I didn't vote for this assholes.
Green party and Merkel could start tomorrow. Only the power-struggle in the CSU and the pressure on Seehofer removes some wiggle room but a lot needs to happen for them to do more than bark.
Germany has a record budget and that's how they'll manager to come to an agreement: throw money at everyone's core clients.
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Ahh, got it
 
PedroMendez said:
No. Coalition negotiations were intentionally drawn out due to the schedule. The fdp already gave up on almost all the liberal red lines. They are selling out before it starts. I am so happy that I didn't vote for this assholes.
Green party and Merkel could start tomorrow. Only the power-struggle in the CSU and the pressure on Seehofer removes some wiggle room but a lot needs to happen for them to do more than bark.
Germany has a record budget and that's how they'll manager to come to an agreement: throw money at everyone's core clients.
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Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87 said:
They usually take a few months to have a government, tbh.
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Apparently new elections now more likely than ever?
 
Member 5225 said:
Apparently new elections now more likely than ever?
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I don't think so. Just the last day of "Sondierungsgespräche", but they already agreed to continue the talks. There are always going to be ups and downs.

All three parties committed quite a bit of time to make this coalition happen. The afd would have a field day if this fails now. New elections would be a big risk for the Union and the FDP. I'd expect to know a lot more at the beginning of next week.
 
update: lots of chatter that the coalition talks have collapsed!
 
Coalition talks between CDU, FDP and Greens failed tonight. For the first time in our history, we are headed for immediate new elections. If someone in the CDU had the guts for it, this might even be Merkels end.
 
Didn't see this one coming at all. I honestly thought it was certain that they'd come to an agreement based on their common greed for power. I also don't quite understand the FDP's thinking behind this, I can't see them or CDU/CSU gain enough to make a coalition between them work (without the greens). Wouldn't at all be surprised if new elections yielded the same possible coalition partners.
 
Abizzz said:
Didn't see this one coming at all. I honestly thought it was certain that they'd come to an agreement based on their common greed for power. I also don't quite understand the FDP's thinking behind this, I can't see them or CDU/CSU gain enough to make a coalition between them work (without the greens). Wouldn't at all be surprised if new elections yielded the same possible coalition partners.
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The FDP is a 1-man party. Christian Lindner is an attention-seeking narcissist. He knows he will get into the parliament no matter what happens next (re-elections). Now he can also act like a noble man who isn't after power at all costs. FDP won't be the party to lose votes now.
 
Cait Sith said:
The FDP is a 1-man party. Christian Lindner is an attention-seeking narcissist. He knows he will get into the parliament no matter what happens next (re-elections). Now he can also act like a noble man who isn't after power at all costs. FDP won't be the party to lose votes now.
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Don't quite agree that the FDP is a 1-man party; I do agree about Lindner otherwise. I'll be surprised if the FDP gain anything from this, hard to rule anything out though. Merkel and CDU will always claim victory, for this and a potential new election (they'll be the largest party again), I can't see her going anywhere. (Then again I expected May to resign months ago, so my predictions aren't worth much :lol: )
 
It's quite obvious that the only option now is in true German tradition for Steinmeier to appoint Gauland as chancellor!
 
Kasper said:
It's quite obvious that the only option now is in true German tradition for Steinmeier to appoint Gauland as chancellor!
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But we don't have an article 48 anymore, so it wouldn't give us a proper Führer, even though Gauland is Hitler material.
 
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