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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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it's those in the UK that should be concerned if the UK goes for the cliff edge.

Quite so Paul and it seems to be giving you that itch you can't scratch because they don't seem concerned - very annoying isn't it, but hey don't worry yourself, you're nice and tucked up, safe in the cosy EU land bed, you can have your duvet-days without a care in the world, Mama Merkel will look after you, don't worry... be happy?
 


This thread is worth a read. And the guy writing works for “The Leave Alliance”. He wanted Brexit but is horrified about the balls up the Tories are making of the implementation. In a way it’s good to see that not all Brexiters have their heads in the sand but it’s shocking to hear how deep the government (and some people in this thread) have buried theirs.
 
This is so obvious.

Basically, the EU can't make it easy allow and a favourable divorce for the UK. If they do, all other EU nations would line up and demand similar. That would be a trigger for EU to cease existence in its present format.
 


This thread is worth a read. And the guy writing works for “The Leave Alliance”. He wanted Brexit but is horrified about the balls up the Tories are making of the implementation. In a way it’s good to see that not all Brexiters have their heads in the sand but it’s shocking to hear how deep the government have buried theirs.

I think what's blatantly obvious is that nobody ever expected it to go through, all Tories included. I doubt even Boris or Farage thought they had any hope either. It's pretty evident in how they have had absolutely no idea what to do since it happened.

Theresa should've stuck with her "Brexit means Brexit" speech, it was probably still fecking better with what they've done since.
 
Quite so Paul and it seems to be giving you that itch you can't scratch because they don't seem concerned - very annoying isn't it, but hey don't worry yourself, you're nice and tucked up, safe in the cosy EU land bed, you can have your duvet-days without a care in the world, Mama Merkel will look after you, don't worry... be happy?

So you're saying you now finally understand that if this all goes wrong its the UK not the EU who are fecked? And can you extend that chain of logic onto how it might effect the negotiating positions of each party?
 
I think what's blatantly obvious is that nobody ever expected it to go through, all Tories included. I doubt even Boris or Farage thought they had any hope either. It's pretty evident in how they have had absolutely no idea what to do since it happened.

Theresa should've stuck with her "Brexit means Brexit" speech, it was probably still fecking better with what they've done since.

Yer man’s timeline is an interesting read. Here’s another spot on observation.



The whole thing has been like watching an agonising slo mo car crash, with Maybot paralysed in the headlights and BoJo and his chums waiting to feast on her corpse. It’s all about tory wankers doing what’s best for their own careers without a moment’s thought about what is best for British citizens.
 
Having fixed border crossing points also pretty much guarantees that they'll be a major target.

Major target? for who, for what purpose?

It would seem the Republicans in NI long since gave up the idea they could bomb the province into a United Ireland and the Unionists realise that the Republican ideal of a United Ireland isn't going to go away.
Brexit will force a new look at things sure, but ultimately it won't be Brussels or London that solve the problem, it will be Dublin and Belfast and the whole of Ireland will probably be better off for it!
 
This is so obvious.

Basically, the EU can't make it easy allow and a favourable divorce for the UK. If they do, all other EU nations would line up and demand similar. That would be a trigger for EU to cease existence in its present format.

Not too many, to be fair....But there are some whose citizens might be tempted but whose politiocos don't feel the same....


I think what's blatantly obvious is that nobody ever expected it to go through, all Tories included. I doubt even Boris or Farage thought they had any hope either. It's pretty evident in how they have had absolutely no idea what to do since it happened.

Theresa should've stuck with her "Brexit means Brexit" speech, it was probably still fecking better with what they've done since.

Agree 101%.

Cameron and the Tories should have at least had an outline plan, but politicians and arrogance are inseperable.
 
Major target? for who, for what purpose?

It would seem the Republicans in NI long since gave up the idea they could bomb the province into a United Ireland and the Unionists realise that the Republican ideal of a United Ireland isn't going to go away.
Brexit will force a new look at things sure, but ultimately it won't be Brussels or London that solve the problem, it will be Dublin and Belfast and the whole of Ireland will probably be better off for it!
Man you really haven't a fecking clue do you.
 
So you're saying you now finally understand that if this all goes wrong its the UK not the EU who are fecked? And can you extend that chain of logic onto how it might effect the negotiating positions of each party?

Not at all I'm saying Paul can rest easy, the decisions in the EU will be taken for him, the only possible problem might be if the deal on nationals falls through, then perhaps, just perhaps he needs to look to his passport? However, as I say, Mrs Merkel has promised... well what exactly has she promised to Brits living in the EU? We know Theresa has offered to safeguard the rights of EU nationals living and working in Britain, but not heard much about the proposed reciprocal arrangements from Frau Merkel!.
 
The EU can be held accountable for the rules the EU sets though can't it?

It is the EU's rules that will prohibit the border being the way the UK and Ireland would prefer it to be.

Now the UK has decided to leave, the EU can hold to its rules on external borders given the changed circumstances or not. Let's not pretend that isn't a choice.

That's like selling your tickets for a United game and then blaming the club for not letting you in to watch the match. Who ever told you that the rest of Europe would change the way it works to suit the UK?
 
Major target? for who, for what purpose?

It would seem the Republicans in NI long since gave up the idea they could bomb the province into a United Ireland and the Unionists realise that the Republican ideal of a United Ireland isn't going to go away.
Brexit will force a new look at things sure, but ultimately it won't be Brussels or London that solve the problem, it will be Dublin and Belfast and the whole of Ireland will probably be better off for it!

During the general election campaign just gone, the UDF assassinated a man in front of his 3 year old in a supermarket car park. Eileen, the DUP leader and part of may's government, met him two days later, not to reprimand him for the violence, she has admitted in an interview she did not bring it up, because her party is the political wing of the UDF.

You seem unaware, but the UDF may not have received the same publicity as the IRA, as they were not bombing the mainland, but they were responsible for the single worst bombing throughout the troubles. We isolate NI in any way, and they will be bombing on the mainland itself.

The idea that its all gone away is risible, and take it from someone who has a brother who, to this day, suffers from the aftermath of being caught in the Birmingham bombings, this is not a subject to wrap in your ignorance.
 
Quite so Paul and it seems to be giving you that itch you can't scratch because they don't seem concerned - very annoying isn't it, but hey don't worry yourself, you're nice and tucked up, safe in the cosy EU land bed, you can have your duvet-days without a care in the world, Mama Merkel will look after you, don't worry... be happy?

Last time I looked I wasn't living in Germany. Brits obsession with Merkel again, she's a bit late with her intervention with Mrs May to resolve this problem and get the deal sorted. What's the weather like in Cloud Cuckoo Land? By the way my process to get French Nationality is nearly through - I realise now what you were getting at, sorry to disappoint you. By the way I didn't apply to Mrs Merkel as she doesn't run France like she does the UK:rolleyes:.
 
I would truly love to know how "the whole of Ireland will be better off" than a situation where we've a completely open border, Northern Irish people can get both Irish and UK passports, we're one of the safest places on earth, and the South is one of the richest countries on earth.

Maybe after Brexit some mythical leprechauns will show up and feck gold at all of us?
 
Its just another example of eu shirking, highlight a problem without offering a suggested solution. The fact the issue has arisen cos of the vote is irrelevant.

The EU have rules to allow an open border, they are the ones we live under now. It's the UK populous's inability to handle the sight of a few foreigners that has led to this
 
Not at all I'm saying Paul can rest easy, the decisions in the EU will be taken for him, the only possible problem might be if the deal on nationals falls through, then perhaps, just perhaps he needs to look to his passport? However, as I say, Mrs Merkel has promised... well what exactly has she promised to Brits living in the EU? We know Theresa has offered to safeguard the rights of EU nationals living and working in Britain, but not heard much about the proposed reciprocal arrangements from Frau Merkel!.

Ah this fantasyland nonsense again. You know who came out the day after the Brexit vote and gave reassurances about our rights as UK citizens living in Europe? That would be the European leaders in each country, who while the UK government were too busy panicking and then fighting for power, actually bothered to tell us that they'd make sure we'd be ok. There was fecking silence from Westminster, which then evolved into us becoming 'bargaining chips'. So spare me the lies about how the UK government have given one single feck about either us or the EU citizens in the UK.

Are you actually aware that the EU offered a deal whereby all UK citizens would retain all their current rights to live and work in the EU, for life? Weeks later the UK responded by offering a much, MUCH shittier deal, and then claimed that they were the only ones who had made an offer and that it was the EU being difficult. Of course the Mail and Express lapped that crap up, so a lot of UK people actually believed it, despite it being yet again a pile of complete dishonest horseshit.

You want to be taken seriously, then do some damn research before parroting the latest lies you've heard.
 
Are you actually aware that the EU offered a deal whereby all UK citizens would retain all their current rights to live and work in the EU, for life? Weeks later the UK responded by offering a much, MUCH shittier deal, and then claimed that they were the only ones who had made an offer and that it was the EU being difficult. Of course the Mail and Express lapped that crap up, so a lot of UK people actually believed it, despite it being yet again a pile of complete dishonest horseshit.

You want to be taken seriously, then do some damn research before parroting the latest lies you've heard.
interesting - as you say that has not been widely reported ... do you have some links to details of this proposal the EU made to the UK?
 
For those that are a bit slow on the uptake on the trading aspect of the Irish Border. Once upon a time...

Mr Antonio Conte In Italy sells a lorry load of Prosecco from Milan to Dublin, lorry gets on a ferry in Cherbourg and sails to Ireland and delivers the Prosecco to John O'Shea in Dublin. A few days later Mr Jonny Evans from Belfast decides to buy the Prosecco from Mr O'Shea and the said Prosecco is delivered to Belfast across the open border.

Meanwhile Mr Boris Johnson in Walthamstow sells a lorry load of Chocolate Cake to Mr Jonny Evans in Belfast and the lorry gets on a ferry in Liverpool and delivers the said Chocolate Cake and Mr Boris Johnson also decides to buy the Prosecco that is sitting in the warehouse in Belfast and takes it back in the lorry on the ferry back to Liverpool. Mr Jonny Evans calls Mr John O'Shea and asked if he is interested in buying the Chocolate Cake he has in stock, they agree a price and the Chocolate Cake is delivered to Dublin on a lorry across the open border.

It then occurred to Mr O'Shea that he remembered someone saying that the French loved the Chocolate Cake made in Walthamstow and called his mate Didier Deschamps in Bordeaux, a deal was agreed and the Chocolate Cake was put on a lorry, shipped on a ferry and duly delivered to Mr Deschamps' warehouse in Bordeaux (where it still sits today).

Question for Brexiteers : As there are no customs checks , where and when are the VAT and Duties paid and by whom, if at all?
 
interesting - as you say that has not been widely reported ... do you have some links to details of this proposal the EU made to the UK?

Here's a couple.

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/gu...t-deal-citizenship-rights-theresa-may-2017-7/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...threatens-veto-uks-damp-squib-offer-citizens/

Interesting to note also that the European Parliament get to vote on the agreement after the negotiations and are making very plain that no matter what is agreed between negotiators, they will not sanction a deal that removes citizens rights.
 
Well im certainly not a brexiteer - but to be fair who private individuals, are sole traders. who are limited companies and what countries are said companies incorporated

Actually it doesn't matter that much but for the sake of argument they're all companies.
Boris Johnson & Co. Ltd - registered company in Walthamstow, UK
Jonny Evans and Sons registered company in Belfast, UK
John O'Shea and Partners - registered company in Dublin, Ireland
Didier Deschamps & Fils SAS - registered company in Bordeaux, France
Antonio Conte SA - registered company in Milano, Italy
 
Actually it doesn't matter that much but for the sake of argument they're all companies.
Boris Johnson & Co. Ltd - registered company in Walthamstow, UK
Jonny Evans and Sons registered company in Belfast, UK
John O'Shea and Partners - registered company in Dublin, Ireland
Didier Deschamps & Fils SAS - registered company in Bordeaux, France
Antonio Conte SA - registered company in Milano, Italy

Well if you are a Limitied company your obligation is to add VAT (to Vat applicable products and services) and collect this on behalf of HMRC (or the appropriate authority in France / Italy etc)

I run the UK arm of a Dutch company with sister companies in France, Italy, (Germany, Norway, Spain, Belgium, Sri Lanka, & Gahna) so yeah you add tha appropriate VAT to your invoice and if you turn over a small amount per year you can wait till your paid by your customer to pay the VAT, but if you turn over a large amount the VAT is due once you issue the invoice (cash accounting vs invoice accounting) - its pretty straight forward but actually what your trading status is and where you are registered is pretty fundamental for determining what VAT is due and where (and when)
 
Well if you are a Limitied company your obligation is to add VAT (to Vat applicable products and services) and collect this on behalf of HMRC (or the appropriate authority in France / Italy etc)

I run the UK arm of a Dutch company with sister companies in France, Italy, (Germany, Norway, Spain, Belgium, Sri Lanka, & Gahna) so yeah you add tha appropriate VAT to your invoice and if you turn over a small amount per year you can wait till your paid by your customer to pay the VAT, but if you turn over a large amount the VAT is due once you issue the invoice (cash accounting vs invoice accounting) - its pretty straight forward but actually what your trading status is and where you are registered is pretty fundamental for determining what VAT is due and where (and when)

Well yes, but that's why I said a lorry load because the value will take you over the minimum - I've been trading worldwide since the 80s in a similar set up to yours. The question is for those who think an open border can work after having left the customs union and single market.
 
this is not a subject to wrap in your ignorance.

Oh dear we are back to the personal bluster and denigration again are we, you have learned nothing have you?

Whether you, or I, or the EU, or Britain, or anybody else likes it, the problems in Ireland, including borders, will ultimately only be solved by the Irish, themselves no matter how much others may wish to interfere such interference will always add a dimension too many, that is likely to prolong matters, not solve them, as the present scenario demonstrates!
 
I would truly love to know how "the whole of Ireland will be better off"

If you are referring to my comments you will notice I said 'probably' better off! this is based on what my Irish friends, some living in the north and some in the south, have indicated to me over a period of years.
The general feeling seemed to be "we love having visitors to this island, but we would like to manage our own affairs", as I say these are sentiments and comments expressed to me over the years, mostly in situations where little or no alcohol had been consumed!
 
Didn't it come with an impossible-to-accept that they were still covered / protected by the jurisdiction of ECJ rather than the UK Supreme Court ? And as they continue to push for.

Who knows....Maybe the UK responded along the lines of all UK citizens resident in the EU remain covered / protected by the jurisdiction of the UK Supreme Court rather the ECJ.

Result - Both totally unrealistic so deadlock.
I believe so ECJ was an expectation of the EU - though funnily enough I dont think UK citizens in the EU could appeal decisions in europe to the UK courts... so yeah a non starter really - unless there was another offer i dont recall.
To be clear i woud be happy for us to stay in the EU - but I feel the attempts so far (from both sides) at "negotiations" have been more posturing - I blame the UK for that more than the EU though as lets be honest we are playing poker essentially and at the moment we look to have a pretty poor hand so i dont blame EU negotiators for dragging the process as its in their interest to secure the best deal for the Eu which is of course their job
 
Oh dear we are back to the personal bluster and denigration again are we, you have learned nothing have you?

Whether you, or I, or the EU, or Britain, or anybody else likes it, the problems in Ireland, including borders, will ultimately only be solved by the Irish, themselves no matter how much others may wish to interfere such interference will always add a dimension too many, that is likely to prolong matters, not solve them, as the present scenario demonstrates!
It's all good you palming it off on Ireland but you're lot have created the fcukin problem. You should listen to yourself.... Christ.
 
If you are referring to my comments you will notice I said 'probably' better off! this is based on what my Irish friends, some living in the north and some in the south, have indicated to me over a period of years.
The general feeling seemed to be "we love having visitors to this island, but we would like to manage our own affairs", as I say these are sentiments and comments expressed to me over the years, mostly in situations where little or no alcohol had been consumed!
Oh ok, probably better off. That changes everything, except it doesn't, it's basically saying we will be better off, but adding a "probably" in front of it to cover your hole.

I don't know anyone, anyone in my life in Ireland who actually thinks we'd be better off outside the EU, or in your case, with the North outside the EU. I'd go so far as to say that anyone who genuinely thinks that things will "probably" improve between the North and South with them out of the EU is an absolute idiot.
 
For those that are a bit slow on the uptake on the trading aspect of the Irish Border. Once upon a time...

Mr Antonio Conte In Italy sells a lorry load of Prosecco from Milan to Dublin, lorry gets on a ferry in Cherbourg and sails to Ireland and delivers the Prosecco to John O'Shea in Dublin. A few days later Mr Jonny Evans from Belfast decides to buy the Prosecco from Mr O'Shea and the said Prosecco is delivered to Belfast across the open border.

Meanwhile Mr Boris Johnson in Walthamstow sells a lorry load of Chocolate Cake to Mr Jonny Evans in Belfast and the lorry gets on a ferry in Liverpool and delivers the said Chocolate Cake and Mr Boris Johnson also decides to buy the Prosecco that is sitting in the warehouse in Belfast and takes it back in the lorry on the ferry back to Liverpool. Mr Jonny Evans calls Mr John O'Shea and asked if he is interested in buying the Chocolate Cake he has in stock, they agree a price and the Chocolate Cake is delivered to Dublin on a lorry across the open border.

It then occurred to Mr O'Shea that he remembered someone saying that the French loved the Chocolate Cake made in Walthamstow and called his mate Didier Deschamps in Bordeaux, a deal was agreed and the Chocolate Cake was put on a lorry, shipped on a ferry and duly delivered to Mr Deschamps' warehouse in Bordeaux (where it still sits today).

Question for Brexiteers : As there are no customs checks , where and when are the VAT and Duties paid and by whom, if at all?


Great example, great question. Answer, no idea.

On the other hand, one could argue a case for an open border, whether people or goods, that any VAT / Duty becomes payable on arrival or departure from the island of Ireland, and not a politically created border.
 
Great example, great question. Answer, no idea.

On the other hand, one could argue a case for an open border, whether people or goods, that any VAT / Duty becomes payable on arrival or departure from the island of Ireland, and not a politically created border.

That's already been ruled out including by May ... next solution
 
I had a bit of hope the country would take a step back once we realised where this is headed.
We seem determined to go full on, head first for this car crash.
I am just curious to know how the Tories intend to blame Labour for this nonsense.
 
That changes everything

Yes it does, because that's what actually I said, not what you misquoted!

I don't know anyone, anyone in my life in Ireland who actually thinks we'd be better off outside the EU, or in your case, with the North outside the EU.

Did I say that they did?

For goodness sake man read the dammed post, before sounding off, you are making yourself look silly.

I expressed a sentiment put to me over many years by my friends in Ireland. Personally for me, if they choose to live in the EU thats fine, that is the Irish determining their own future.

Northern Ireland may well have to leave the UK, in order to join the EU as a separate entity, whether they could as an independent country or have to join with the Irish Republic, I don't know, maybe the Brexit situation may open that debate. At the moment there seems to be stalemate in NI anyway, Brexit may break the log-jam.

Whichever it is it is ultimately up to the people of Ireland to determine, collectively, or possibly as two independent States within an Irish Con-Federation, or some similar overarching structure that is accepted by the EU.
 
Oh dear we are back to the personal bluster and denigration again are we, you have learned nothing have you?

Whether you, or I, or the EU, or Britain, or anybody else likes it, the problems in Ireland, including borders, will ultimately only be solved by the Irish, themselves no matter how much others may wish to interfere such interference will always add a dimension too many, that is likely to prolong matters, not solve them, as the present scenario demonstrates!


Not bluster. I am telling you that, as someone whose brother was actually in the Tavern in the Town when the bomb went off, your ignorance on the subject won't get us anywhere. The consequences of this are very, very real, he still suffers 40 years later, this is far too important for your nonsense, because I would not wish what we went through on anyone.

It is not the IRISH problem, they did not vote for anything, it is the UK problem, we voted for the change.

If you want to take control of the borders, you will want a border there, our only land border with another country.

If you leave it open, then you have not got control of the borders and anyone, anyone at all, can cross directly from the EU into the UK as they wish, negating the big selling point of brexit.

It is a circle you cannot square, and it is entirely a problem that was predicted and warned about pre vote. It is our problem as a country, and brexit ministers in particular, to resolve. No one elses.
 
I had a bit of hope the country would take a step back once we realised where this is headed.
We seem determined to go full on, head first for this car crash.
I am just curious to know how the Tories intend to blame Labour for this nonsense.

Firstly they haven't yet realised where it is heading and secondly who cares - foreigners. Thirdly, Mrs Merkel has to relinquish power over the UK at any cost.
 
Not bluster. I am telling you that, as someone whose brother was actually in the Tavern in the Town when the bomb went off, your ignorance on the subject won't get us anywhere. The consequences of this are very, very real, he still suffers 40 years later, this is far too important for your nonsense, because I would not wish what we went through on anyone.

It is not the IRISH problem, they did not vote for anything, it is the UK problem, we voted for the change.

If you want to take control of the borders, you will want a border there, our only land border with another country.

If you leave it open, then you have not got control of the borders and anyone, anyone at all, can cross directly from the EU into the UK as they wish, negating the big selling point of brexit.

It is a circle you cannot square, and it is entirely a problem that was predicted and warned about pre vote. It is our problem as a country, and brexit ministers in particular, to resolve. No one elses.


Not wholly correct - both the British Isles and the island of Ireland have a very natural physical border to permit control of imports, exports and people.

However, if either the UK or the EU has already rejected this solution, then not too many other options are available to even negotiate about, let alone implement.