My point is that obviously that site promotes inaccurate and sensationalist material.
As for the Spanish pensions how does this affect the UK and Brexit?
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
My point is that obviously that site promotes inaccurate and sensationalist material.
As for the Spanish pensions how does this affect the UK and Brexit?
THREE BILLION.
ON PREPARATIONS.
LET THAT feckING SINK IN A MINUTE.
I can't wait to leave this fecking country.
And yet so predictable. When I look round the world there doesn't seem to be any shortage of stupidities though, but good luck with the search.
New Zealand. Never been there, know very little about the place, but people I know who say they want to wash their hands of the rest of the world and live a quiet life as subsistence farmers always seem to settle on New Zealand.
Lol, is this a serious post? Do you think that is sufficient to resolve the multitude of issues this country faces? Also, what happened to Brexiters' lack of faith in forecasts.
All of a sudden, anything that confirms the deluded's view of the world is 100% true and believable.
I am not a Brexiteer, just a realist. Those figures don't show us coming close to to a recession. Realistically after Brexit and all that is involved that would be decent growth.
Ignoring the large downgrade -
Genuine question, is this taking account of reverting to WTO rules or assuming a continuation of trading as you were?
Surely the latter. I think everyone is still working on the assumption a deal will be reached in the end. WTO rules would surely be much worse, regardless of what Brexiters say. I think even most of them would admit in the short term it will be a fair bit bumpier than these numbers imply. As evidenced by the ones that are also financial advisors telling investors to get their money the hell out of the UK.
That's what I thought too and as said all along the real economic disaster would happen if the UK left with no deal and reverting to WTO rules.
Just imagine if they announced a cancellation of Brexit today , how much the Uk economy would improve overnight.
France's growth since from 12 - 16 was 0.2, 0.6, 0.7, 1.0 & 1.1, how bad is it there?
I doubt these take into account WTO rules. I would be amazed if the UK performed that well after Brexit whatever the case. I would see that as a result, all things considered.
As I said all along the UK was way ahead of the EU including France up until 2015/16 but decided to shoot itself in the foot. Even your figures show a trend in an upwards direction for France in slower way but they're still improving.. Since the UK decided to do the deed what is the trend for the UK growth, the opposite and that's without taking into account WTO.
If the UK can leave the EU, the single market, customs union and we can then make trade deals freely with out countries whilst maintaining that growth then I would say that Brexit was a success. Future prospects would then all depend on how the country was managed after that of course.
That said, I'm hugely sceptical we will do that well.
Probably the biggest bullshit out there regarding Brexit. Nobody gives a feck about GB, if there’s any trade deals at all, they will be archieved from a position of a beggar.
Yes if the Uk managed that I would agree, but I cannot see how they could possibly do that , I am more than hugely sceptical. It's almost starting from zero even though May thinks she can paste and copy agreements.
Canada is one example -which would probably be one of the easier agreements to get - as per the meeting earlier between May and Trudeau , Trudeau said that with the agreement already in place with the EU would help with the establishment of an agreement between the Uk and Canada but the EU agreement would only form a base for the start of negotiations - not as May seems to interpret it as an almost immediate copy and paste agreement.
What happens in the meantime?
Alright buddy.
Truth hurts.
It would take a long time of course. It will take 10+ years before we could be truly prosperous again I would expect, which is pretty much why I voted remain
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Bit of both seems to be the answer. The OBR document only mentions 'Brexit' 46 times (to be fair it says 'exiting the EU' loads) and doesn't say 'WTO'.
http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.org.uk/Nov2017EFOwebversion-2.pdf
If you really see you own perception as definitive proof of the 'truth', given by the general bitter and arrogant tone of your posts it would fit.
I think plenty of countries will want to to do a deal with the fifth largest economy in the world, seems logical to me. Granted we will be the junior partner in a few cases but that does not mean that a beneficial deal cannot be struck for the UK.
A copy and paste of the Canada deal would be completely useless for us, it excludes services and our economy is 80% services.
I think you're being optimistic, what I can't see is how the Uk gets through the coming years without a major economic crisis if it goes to WTO in March 2019. I actually don't think it will come to that and that an agreement will be found eventually with the UK outside the EU but still subject to the rules and payments they want to avoid.
A few? All of them. Emerging countries won’t be interested and wouldn’t be beneficial to GB anyway while established trade countries will just exploit them. That’s how it works, it’s one of the very reasons the EU exists.
Outside of your conversation, the "fifth largest economy" is highly linked to the City, being out of the EU will have a huge influence on that, iirc almost 40% of wholesale business done in the EU are done through the City.
The Norway Model?
You have to say that would be a pretty funny outcome, if you think about it. Britain votes to leave the EU to take back control and then ends up in pretty much exactly the same position it was in before, but with no influence over the rules, i.e. with considerably less control than it had before. We would have to go along with whatever France and Germany decided, or if you want to be less cynical, whatever the EU decided, without the UK's Anglo Saxon influence.
We could leave the EU and as a result end up being more European than we were before.
It would almost be worth it just to watch Johnson, Gove, Farrage, Rees Mogg and the rest of them crying about it.
That simply isn't true though. When Detroit went bankrupt (the largest of many cities) New York or California did not step in, it was Detroit's pensioners who lost everything. In theory the redistribution could be done within the US, but it isn't done in practice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy
My thoughts exactly.
The fact that the government didnt step in to rescue the big car makers does not disprove the concept of fiscal transfer in America.
@Abizzz
The Economist says:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/08/americas-fiscal-union
The Economist says:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/08/americas-fiscal-union
From what I gather London will remain the premier financial centre in Europe after Brexit.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-london-stays-worlds-top-finance-centre-despite-brexit-2017-9
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...inancial-capital-despite-brexit-a8054801.html
@fcbforever
And what of the countries that aren't in the EU, how do they trade?
@Adebesi
I was talking about the municipal bankruptcy (As much government as it gets...).
Edit: Take another look at the spoiler now if it didn't work before, I messed up including the picture at first.
Also: The federal government did rescue the car manufacturers, just not the actual city itself...
I was talking about the municipal bankruptcy (As much government as it gets...).
Edit: Take another look at the spoiler now if it didn't work before, I messed up including the picture at first.
Also: The federal government did rescue the car manufacturers, just not the actual city itself...
I knew you were going to come back with something like that.
That relates to the whole EU, not the eurozone. For the currency to work it would need to be on a bigger scale.
Well you have admit it's kind of the obvious thing to come back with
, it being exactly the same and all... Yeah and when that is increased they'll come back with that as a reason that it cannot work.At the end of the day there are reputable economists on both sides of this argument and my explanation is hardly a definitive explanation of what fiscal union entails anyway. So yeah, I can live with you disagreeing with me.Well you have admit it's kind of the obvious thing to come back with
Going by pages around 37 and 38 I think it's assuming the deep and special partnership (although I haven't read it all yet) with some agreement with the EU.
I would have thought if WTO and losing passport rights were anticipated they would be highlighted in red unless of course that sort of comment was suppressed by the government.
It might remain top in Europe but by a much smaller margin. The UK had a substantial share of highly skilled jobs from EU institutions.
Yesterday London lost the EBA and many banks are already moving some jobs out of London. They might've moved less than expected so far because most assume a deal will be done but the loss of influence is already evident. London will now be, at best, a regional champion in Europe, as opposed to competing with NY for top place globally. That is unless the genius Brexiters somehow managed to get rid of regulation as it is now and we saw how that ended in 2008. That is not very likely because the direction of travel is towards more not less regulation as the failed fund manager JRM would have you believe.
What I am essentially saying is that your 'realist' expectations are looking more and more like best case scenario based on the current state of play.
Still wishing and hoping eh Paul?
Dream on, we are leaving, if that means no deal then that's what it is, but when Theresa shows them the money it will turn the EU heads, they can't help it!
PS. Sorry been out of contact for a while, bet you've missed me? When we last exchange posts you were trying to tell me how influential MEP's were and the British MEP's let the side down, or something in that vein. The Commissioners make the policies, the MEPS are something like our Lords they can approve or send back for amendments, but they are not the policy makers.. thought you would have known that?
I said we would be doing well to avoid a recession, in fact it would surprise me if we did. I didn't project those GDP figures, nor am I the decision maker at Goldman Sachs building their new European headquarters in London.
One final point I forgot to make is that being happy manufacturing is experiencing a short-term boom because of currency rate imbalances is not something worth celebrating. Given that in the long-term (and the Brexit decision is as long-term as it gets) the effect of currency depreciation will be neutral or negative, as the UK imports most of its inputs for the manufactured goods it produces.
This is without mentioning automation and how it will end labour participation in manufacturing, by and large.
This is without mentioning automation and how it will end labour participation in manufacturing, by and large.