Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[711]

If I'm not mistaken, the agreement is for the island of Ireland but since NI and Great Britain don't want custom borders, the rest of the UK have to align the rules to NI(or more accurately the island of Ireland).

It has an undeniable logic, but maybe:

@Adebesi

Didn't you forward an idea that there could be trade border checks between NI and the UK but only for the trade of EU goods?

Do these developments not suggest that will be the case?

This, something like this, something we haven't figured out yet, or something that hasn't been agreed, or even discussed yet.
Despite everyone's kind advice I still have the feeling I haven't learned a right lot so far.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

I wonder what this woman thinks of the news today.

 

[Eire Red United]

Surely anyone from Ulster can obtain an Irish Passport whenever they want. The ardent unionists may not like it but they could just use it to avoid border problems.

Yeah anyone born on the island can get an Irish passport. After the Brexit vote there was a huge spike in applicants from the north.

 

[Kentonio]

there so Brexit means Brexit...

in truth from a business perspective Im taking this as we are basically going to be in the single market (no doubt at a cost) but really positive in terms of being able to plan... plus we are probably going to remain in all but name which from a personal POV makes me happy

I wouldn't get too happy just yet. This has to pass parliamentary vote, and after the press work out this isn't a great deal for the hardliners, I think we can expect a big fight.

 

[Fully Fledged]

You had to have been born there i think

Or have an ancestral link. I think that loads of people were getting Irish passports so they could stay EU citizens.

 

[Flying high]

There's no point leaving and still being governed by the EU in all but name. Hopefully this waste of time and money is coming to an end now.

The brexiteer humiliation should last for years, however.

 

[sun_tzu]

I wouldn't get too happy just yet. This has to pass parliamentary vote, and after the press work out this isn't a great deal for the hardliners, I think we can expect a big fight.

possibly - but the DUP, Labour, Libs, SNP and any non hardline brexit types would quite possibly be in favour and presumably with a 3 line whip from the government anybody looking to climb the greasy political pole would probably fall into line or at worst abstain - so i think it would stand a decent chance of passing

 

[Fully Fledged]

I wonder what this woman thinks of the news today.

What did the Irish lose exactly?

 

[Kentonio]

possibly - but the DUP, Labour, Libs, SNP and any non hardline brexit types would quite possibly be in favour and presumably with a 3 line whip from the government anybody looking to climb the greasy political pole would probably fall into line or at worst abstain - so i think it would stand a decent chance of passing

Unless of course those hardline Brexiteers think that they're being sold out by a weak prime minister and quite fancy the idea of replacing her with one of their own. Like Boris or Reese-Mogg.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

What did the Irish lose exactly?

Exactly. Exactly exactly.

 

[sun_tzu]

Or have an ancestral link. I think that loads of people were getting Irish passports so they could stay EU citizens.

yup - done it myself (Irish Grandparent)

 

[Adebesi]

This, something like this, something we haven't figured out yet, or something that hasn't been agreed, or even discussed yet.
Despite everyone's kind advice I still have the feeling I haven't learned a right lot so far.

Alan Greenspan once said: "I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."

I think you can apply that logic to this whole process. If they are sufficiently unclear about everything then nobody can have too much conviction in their opposition to it.

So coming back to what @NinjaFletch said above, I am sure this is a fudge - it is the cornerstone of how EU politics works.

 

[sun_tzu]

Unless of course those hardline Brexiteers think that they're being sold out by a weak prime minister and quite fancy the idea of replacing her with one of their own. Like Boris or Reese-Mogg.

possible but I think unlikely anybody would fancy stepping in half way through negotiations and then walking away from the EU negotiations... it would be political suicide

Far better to wait till May et al cnut it up and then pin the blame on them and zip line in to take over

 

[Fully Fledged]

possibly - but the DUP, Labour, Libs, SNP and any non hardline brexit types would quite possibly be in favour and presumably with a 3 line whip from the government anybody looking to climb the greasy political pole would probably fall into line or at worst abstain - so i think it would stand a decent chance of passing

We could have a vote of no confidence before the bill passes and May out of power and Johnson demanding that the agreement be scrapped.

I'm not sure of anything until this is voted on.

 

[Adebesi]

I think if they thought they could pull that off they would have done it already. But the hardline Brexiteers are a minority even in the Tory party, if they bring May down they are more likely to find themselves fighting a general election than enjoying the coronation of their chosen candidate.

 

[Barca84]

I agree. I just find it bizarre that an entire country, a big powerful one like Britain, has put itself through this. Can’t think of an appropriate analogy but imagine paying to not be a member of a club so that you can obey that clubs rules. Bizarre.

I think you need to remember that none of this was supposed to happen. The country was expected to vote remain and whichever way you look at it we're in damage limitation mode now.

 

[Abizzz]

What is the point of brexit to have a soft brexit? Seems like a lot of hassle for no real change apart from some feeling like they've won. Better than a hard one though, so guess I can at least be happy with that.

For the opposite way around, why would Switzerland change from their arrangement to being a member of the EU?

Switzerland has been a partner outside of the EU from the beginning though, carefully negotiating their positions over decades and creating their niché (Over time UK could do the same, but I wouldn't expect it to go fast). Also the Swiss certainly don't feel like they can pick and choose which parts of the EU they like, they have often had to make concessions to get the access they have.

s.

Even what has been agreed today could presumably fall through if the EU dont offer the UK a favourable trade deal, despite what the text says.

I can't see that from the 96 points being listed . Am I missing something?

However:

68. The financial settlement will be drawn up and paid in euro

Means the UK need to get a very ambitious trade deal, otherwise the bill might grow another ~25% in sterling (the 25% is a complete guess, think the fall in sterling would be significant though if the trade deal was no where near what the conditions today are).

 

[711]

Alan Greenspan once said: "I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."

I think you can apply that logic to this whole process. If they are sufficiently unclear about everything then nobody can have too much conviction in their opposition to it.

So coming back to what @NinjaFletch said above, I am sure this is a fudge - it is the cornerstone of how EU politics works.

Yes, that's what I think, I may not have put it well though. So, can one make extrapolations, assumptions or whatever out of fudge? Caftards here seem to think so, they all seem sure of what it all means. Not me though, right or wrong

 

[Fully Fledged]

I think you need to remember that none of this was supposed to happen. The country was expected to vote remain and whichever way you look at it we're in damage limitation mode now.

Yeah. It was a way to win back voters from UKIP that momentously backfired.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Or have an ancestral link. I think that loads of people were getting Irish passports so they could stay EU citizens.

I was talking about NI

 

[Fully Fledged]

I was talking about NI

If NI stays in the EU you could use an ancestral link to claim you are from NI and get an EU passport surely?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

That was before the DUP's intervention I think? Wasnt that basically what the DUP intervened to kill, this basic idea?

It seems like, as ever, the solution has been to fudge it, so I guess there is a decent chance this is still how it will pan out - with all sides careful to say it is not happening.

It has an undeniable logic, but maybe:



This, something like this, something we haven't figured out yet, or something that hasn't been agreed, or even discussed yet.
Despite everyone's kind advice I still have the feeling I haven't learned a right lot so far.

The DUP will probably want some further concessions for NI. This whole deal could work out very well for NI, the possibility of financial institutions relocating there for dual access to the UK and EU markets perhaps?

To attempt to try and look on the bright side Perhaps we would be able to sign some more bespoke trade deals with countries that have the relevant standards to satisfy the EU or can we not have bilateral trade deals with countries already with an EU trade deal?

 

[GloryHunter07]

If NI stays in the EU you could use an ancestral link to claim you are from NI surely?

Not sure tbh, below just says "born in".
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...eep-eu-citizenship-irish-border-a8099176.html

 

[Adebesi]

Yes, that's what I think, I may not have put it well though. So, can one make extrapolations, assumptions or whatever out of fudge? Caftards here seem to think so, they all seem sure of what it all means. Not me though, right or wrong

Maybe they dont, Im kind of with you to be honest, I think it would be pretty naive to think anything has been set in stone today (apart from that other news about the guy who cemented his head inside the microwave, but that is for another thread.)

I think the UK said what it had to say to move things along to the next stage of the process. And I think, if it got what it wanted out of the next stage of the process, it will accept the EU interpretation of what has been agreed today. Quid pro quo. (That is more extrapolation, but it a reasonable educated guess, I reckon, on the basis that if it gets what it wants on trade it wont want to rock the boat.) If it doesnt get what it wants from the next stage the threat will still be that we walk away from the deal. And if we walk away from the deal, by definition everything that has been agreed during the negotiation of that deal would surely be void.

Hopefully that answers what @Abizzz asked me above as well. Its not that there are items in the agreement setting out what happens if nothing is agreed. It is the fact that if nothing is agreed then (presumably) nothing in this document is binding anyway. It is just a way of getting to the next stage.

 

[NinjaFletch]

The DUP will probably want some further concessions for NI. This whole deal could work out very well for NI, the possibility of financial institutions relocating there for dual access to the UK and EU markets perhaps?

To attempt to try and look on the bright side Perhaps we would be able to sign some more bespoke trade deals with countries that have the relevant standards to satisfy the EU or can we not have bilateral trade deals with countries already with an EU trade deal?

Again, though, that is what the DUP explicitly rejected.

 

[Kentonio]

I think if they thought they could pull that off they would have done it already. But the hardline Brexiteers are a minority even in the Tory party, if they bring May down they are more likely to find themselves fighting a general election than enjoying the coronation of their chosen candidate.

Never underestimate the wide gap between their ambition and their intelligence.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Again, though, that is what the DUP explicitly rejected.

Or it is significant leverage for them going forward. I can't help but think that it why they crashed the deal so late in the day.

 

[Abizzz]

Hopefully that answers what @Abizzz asked me above as well. Its not that there are items in the agreement setting out what happens if nothing is agreed. It is the fact that if nothing is agreed then (presumably) nothing in this document is binding anyway. It is just a way of getting to the next stage.

Yes, makes perfect sense when you put it like that, thank you.

Edit: Alternatively this could be used as basis for David Davis' "No deal deal" though too. The one where he said basic things like aviation would be covered but trade etc. wouldn't.

 

[Rory 7]

I think you need to remember that none of this was supposed to happen. The country was expected to vote remain and whichever way you look at it we're in damage limitation mode now.

True

 

[Kentonio]

As it stands, Gibraltar will not enjoy the cushion a transition period, EU officials confirmed, and will drop out of the Single Market and the Customs Union when the UK leaves the bloc on 29 March 2019.

EU officials confirmed the Guardian’s story last month that an arrangement over the future of the rock needs to be struck between Spain and the UK, if the transition arrangement is to be extended to Gibraltar.

Well that's a big feck you to Gibraltar then.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Have to call you mystic Meg - That's what May has just agreed - we are locked into "full allignment" if agreement is not reached!

Well thank god for that! - It will cost May her career - indeed i think she could be gone by Christmas now, but at least she has protected us from the WTO option that the more cranky parts of her party were lusting after.

I think it was always going to take a "suicide mission" approach. No-one gets out of this with their political career intact. Thank god for Ireland and Northern Ireland peace agrement - you may have saved the UK from Economic abyss!

The thing is that whether it is two years ago, yesterday , tomorrow or in two year's time, if there is no hard Irish border then the Uk are in the Customs Union, despite some people pretending otherwise.

Even the government are trying to pretend otherwise because if they admit it that means these fantastic independent deals they were signing up with other countries can't happen. People still believe this government despite all the lies they have told and continue to tell.

If NI is in the Customs Union, or full alignment as they call it, then so is the rest of the UK.

Nothing is set in stone, however, and the UK could still pull out and fall off the cliff edge. The humiliation would be even greater than pretending they had the strong hand in the first place.

The main thing is if businesses and the City are convinced by this, if they are not , fun and games in the New Year.

As yet, since the beginning nothing has happened to remotely surprise me.

 

[Member 5225]

There's no point leaving and still being governed by the EU in all but name. Hopefully this waste of time and money is coming to an end now.

The brexiteer humiliation should last for years, however.

What exactly has been agreed? Am still confused. All I see is tweets and posts re: might as well stay now. Sounds like she sold out? Soft-Brexit?

 

[C3Pique]

I just hope we are forced to adopt the EU tax avoidance regulations in 2019. Should wipe the smirk off of all those Leave donors.

 

[Eire Red United]

Again, though, that is what the DUP explicitly rejected.

Those cnuts are literally cutting off their nose to spite their face.

 

[GloryHunter07]

What exactly has been agreed? Am still confused. All I see is tweets and posts re: might as well stay now. Sounds like she sold out? Soft-Brexit?

I think those conclusions are a little premature, things are still up in the air.

 

[JPRouve]

What exactly has been agreed? Am still confused. All I see is tweets and posts re: might as well stay now. Sounds like she sold out? Soft-Brexit?

Let's say that by choosing the "no border" option, the UK limited their deal options to no deal and a brexit arguably softer than EFTA.

 

[Member 5225]

I think those conclusions are a little premature, things are still up in the air.

Hmm so why the warm hugs, high fives and agreement to move on talks?
Sorry I am struggling to find a succinct clear paragraph on what exactly happened / was agreed!

 

[Member 5225]

Let's say that by choosing the "no border" option, the UK limited their deal options to no deal and a brexit arguably softer than EFTA.

Interesting. Will be interested to see how this goes down with different groups of folks (remainers, hard brexiteers, soft brexiteers etc)

 

[Kentonio]

Interesting. Will be interested to see how this goes down with different groups of folks (remainers, hard brexiteers, soft brexiteers etc)

It's going down like a sack of shit on the Mail Online comments section, which makes today a good day.

 

[buchansleftleg]

It's going down like a sack of shit on the Mail Online comments section, which makes today a good day.

Thanks for the reminder!

*basks in warm glow of heat emerging from "disgusted of Tunbridge wells" in comments section*