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A question on foreign policy in a future potential scenario for the EU without Britain.

If the EU decides to support Ukraine regain it's former borders and orders all states to send armies and tanks to the East for a showdown with Russia what checks would be in place to stop this?
 
A question on foreign policy in a future potential scenario for the EU without Britain.

If the EU decides to support Ukraine regain it's former borders and orders all states to send armies and tanks to the East for a showdown with Russia what checks would be in place to stop this?

No need for checks, they have no power to do that.
 
The DUP and in particular Ian Og Paisley are trying the old this is actually great for us (DUP) and a disaster for the ROI ruse but nobody is buying it.

If conjecture is to be believed it is pretty great for the DUP as they got want they wanted and got to look important, it's just also great for ROI as I think a hard border would be as disastrous for them.

The OG Ian Paisley died a while ago, not getting that reference, unless your implying he's some sort of ogre or idiot, which I won't contest.
 
You can't go around a pretend that an army doesn't define a state and a specific set of citizens because its role is to protect the geographical integrity and safety of defined borders and citizens. Let's not play that game, if you create an army, a police or just even an actual custom administration then you definitely create a state. It's even more evident for the EU who legally already have all the attributes of a country within Schengen with a population, a territory and a sovereignty.

I'm perfectly comfortable with it being myself a federalist.

Good post. Just a quick question, it's honest, not a trick, how do France's standing African 'adventures' fit in with a Federal European Army? I'm thinking if other nations in the federation totally disagree with them then what happens? I assume the French army can be either European or French at any given time, according to the situation, but it's something I can't get my head round.
 
I'm not judging the merits of a cooperation. And Careful there, the Royal Netherlands Army and the German Army aren't one, they have a deep cooperation but they are both under the sovereign powers of two different countries.

In case Germany and the Netherlands go to war, yes. Otherwise, the integration runs really deep already. And that is pretty much what is supposed to happen with an EU army as well: withdraw in case you really want to, share capabilities in every other case. Just logical.

Let's have a look at the current military capabilities of the EU (without the UK)


Navy: 1 Fleet carrier, 3 STOVL carriers, 3 helicopter carriers, 17 amphibious assault ships, 31 destroyers, 74 frigates, 35 corvettes, 4 nuclear missile submarines and 48 attack submarines (nuclear and diesel-electric).

Landforces: 7000 MBT's, 12.000 armoured fighting vehicles, 8700 artillery pieces, 620 attack helicopters.

Airforce: 1300 Generation 4+ Jet fighters, 300-500 Generation 3 fighters depending on how you count and availability. 20 air refuel tankers, 300-400 medium sized tactical transport aircraft.

Total expenditure: 160 billion €, third in the world, roughly 200% more than Russia.
Active personal: 1.3 million people.

So, what do we get for all that money?

Around as much as Russia, MUCH less than China. Yes, certain things, especially personal costs, are more expensive in Europe which explains some of the differences. But most of it can be explained by single countries not being able to maintain larger equipment at all or in sufficient numbers, resulting in them either not having said equipment, having outdated versions of it, or having insufficient numbers to use it properly (most prominently when it comes to aricraft carriers, as having only one means you won't have any half of the time). The EU completely lacks large scale tactical transport aircraft, the largest being the Hercules and some old Antonovs at this point. Smaller airforces either keep older aircrafts for too long or are buying inferior material like the Gripen because of a lack of money. We don't have sufficient aerial bombardment capabilities. We have far too many frigates, because these are the largest ships most countries can afford, while lacking air support in form of carriers and AEGIS-like destroyer capabilities. We support an absurd amount of artillery pieces without having any real use for them on that scale.

In an ideal world, we would cut down on the number of fighter aircraft overall, while improving their quality and developing some bombardment capabilities. We would increase our number of MBT's while cutting costs though homologation. We would invest in large scale tactical transport capabilities and a larger number of attack helicopters. Germany and France would both invest in a fleet carrier, so that one will always be available, while other countries may pay for the airwings used on them.

All of this would vastely increase our potential while probably even shrinking the costs. It's a good idea.
 
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-eu-negotiations-11-december-2017

Extract:
And we will pay our fair share of the outstanding commitments and liabilities to which we committed during our membership.
Mr Speaker, these are the actions of a responsible nation honouring the commitments that it has made to its allies having gone through those commitments line by line as we said we would.


When responding to Corbyn:
She says a financial settlement has been agreed. The calculations put that at worth £35bn to £39bn, she says.
  • May confirms Brexit deal will cost UK £35bn to £39bn.
She says this offer is “off the table” if the UK and the EU do not agree a future partnership.
 
Good post. Just a quick question, it's honest, not a trick, how do France's standing African 'adventures' fit in with a Federal European Army? I'm thinking if other nations in the federation totally disagree with them then what happens? I assume the French army can be either European or French at any given time, according to the situation, but it's something I can't get my head round.

That's the thing, if a federal Army was created, it wouldn't possible to do that without the approval of a federal executive and probably parliament. At the moment, PESCO is a cooperation, France has its own army and can provide a part of its personal to PESCO, NATO or the UN. The real trick here is that the funding is now more automatic and not voluntary, the members of PESCO agreed beforehand on the contributions that they will make towards it and from what I understand they can't back down.

Edit: We should maybe take that in the EU army thread.
 
No need for checks, they have no power to do that.

So let's consider something recent,

EU Banks needed to guarantee the savings of their clients to a maximum amount of €100,000yet when recently a number of Italian banks were in trouble the ECB instructed those banks to lock in the deposits of their savers apparently over-riding previous assurances on the protected threshold of €100,000.
 
So let's consider something recent,

EU Banks needed to guarantee the savings of their clients to a maximum amount of €100,000yet when recently a number of Italian banks were in trouble the ECB instructed those banks to lock in the deposits of their savers apparently over-riding previous assurances on the protected threshold of €100,000.

And the link with the Army, is?
 
Good post. Just a quick question, it's honest, not a trick, how do France's standing African 'adventures' fit in with a Federal European Army? I'm thinking if other nations in the federation totally disagree with them then what happens? I assume the French army can be either European or French at any given time, according to the situation, but it's something I can't get my head round.

I'd be interested to hear how Irish neutrality fits into this as well.
 
So let's consider something recent,

EU Banks needed to guarantee the savings of their clients to a maximum amount of €100,000yet when recently a number of Italian banks were in trouble the ECB instructed those banks to lock in the deposits of their savers apparently over-riding previous assurances on the protected threshold of €100,000.

That wasn't overriding. Also, what does it have to do with an EU army?
 
I haven't been following this, this thread is the first I heard of it.

Can you tell me what the neutrality means for Ireland? PESCO as it has been presented will have at the very least the same type of missions as the Blue Helmets and can do what NATO does, now the way the EU is built it could become more than that.
 
Can you tell me what the neutrality means for Ireland? PESCO as it has been presented will have at the very least the same type of missions as the Blue Helmets and can do what NATO does, now the way the EU is built it could become more than that.

I'm no expert on the subject but I don't think it's too complicated, we (in theory) don't get involved in others' conflicts in any military sense, any involvement is confined to peace-keepers no efforts via the UN. Hence we're not in NATO.
 
I'm no expert on the subject but I don't think it's too complicated, we (in theory) don't get involved in others' conflicts in any military sense, any involvement is confined to peace-keepers no efforts via the UN. Hence we're not in NATO.

Honestly I can't tell, because at the moment there isn't any projects that would go against it.

- European Medical Command;
- European Secure Software defined Radio (ESSOR);
- Network of logistic Hubs in Europe and support to Operations
- Military Mobility;
- European Union Training Mission Competence Centre (EU TMCC);
- European Training Certification Centre for European Armies;
- Energy Operational Function (EOF);
- Deployable Military Disaster Relief Capability Package;
- Maritime (semi-) Autonomous Systems for Mine Countermeasures (MAS MCM);
- Harbour & Maritime Surveillance and Protection (HARMSPRO);
- Upgrade of Maritime Surveillance;
- Cyber Threats and Incident Response Information Sharing Platform;
- Cyber Rapid Response Teams and Mutual Assistance in Cyber Security;
- Strategic Command and Control (C2) System for CSDP Missions and Operations;
- Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle / Amphibious Assault Vehicle / Light Armoured Vehicle;
- Indirect Fire Support (EuroArtillery);
- EUFOR Crisis Response Operation Core (EUFOR CROC).
 
Re Army isn’t this para I saw earlier the crux of the concern:

“The EU Army will be even more dysfunctional than the eurozone. European national publics will hate their national troops being deployed by the EU for causes with which they do not agree or don't care enough about.”
 
Honestly I can't tell, because at the moment there isn't any projects that would go against it.

- European Medical Command;
- European Secure Software defined Radio (ESSOR);
- Network of logistic Hubs in Europe and support to Operations
- Military Mobility;
- European Union Training Mission Competence Centre (EU TMCC);
- European Training Certification Centre for European Armies;
- Energy Operational Function (EOF);
- Deployable Military Disaster Relief Capability Package;
- Maritime (semi-) Autonomous Systems for Mine Countermeasures (MAS MCM);
- Harbour & Maritime Surveillance and Protection (HARMSPRO);
- Upgrade of Maritime Surveillance;
- Cyber Threats and Incident Response Information Sharing Platform;
- Cyber Rapid Response Teams and Mutual Assistance in Cyber Security;
- Strategic Command and Control (C2) System for CSDP Missions and Operations;
- Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle / Amphibious Assault Vehicle / Light Armoured Vehicle;
- Indirect Fire Support (EuroArtillery);
- EUFOR Crisis Response Operation Core (EUFOR CROC).

Presumably it would include some sort of mutual defence agreement though no? So in the event of, say, another Greece-Turkey war, Irish troops could be called on to defend Athens? I don't see that prospect going down too well over here in the current climate.
 
You do understand that getting rid of the veto would require a major treaty change which would require all members to approve it right? So your argument appears to come down to 'well we'll surely voluntarily give up our right to veto eventually, so what's the point in having a veto?' which seems a rather odd position.

Its not an odd position at all and its not even the position I hold. My own view in shorthand goes something like this. I believe that in the long term Britain is far better in than out of Europe. I also believe that my country cannot be half in a club and half out of it which is where we always historically have been. If we are in we had better be in wholeheartedly. This current position is neither use or ornament nor sustainable. If we do overturn Brexit then on what basis. Surely not to keep being further marginalised within Europe as most march in one direction whilst we keep marking time. For example the Euro zone will grow and we will steadfastly stick with the pound. We will exercise our veto on the Euro Army but others will find a way around that and we will be on the outside looking in once more. Under those circumstances better out than in IMHO. What really irritates me however is those in favour of remain who argue (and the majority sure do) that we can stay in Europe and still have a significant voice in the future without agreeing to further integration. Its a pipe dream.
 
Presumably it would include some sort of mutual defence agreement though no? So in the event of, say, another Greece-Turkey war, Irish troops could be called on to defend Athens? I don't see that prospect going down too well over here in the current climate.

The members are committed to make troops available for the EU Battlegroup like with the CSDP. But you weren't members of the latter, so yeah things are going to change, I'm surprised that Portugal and Ireland joined at the last minute.

PS: I didn't realize that Ireland were neutral.
 
If conjecture is to be believed it is pretty great for the DUP as they got want they wanted and got to look important, it's just also great for ROI as I think a hard border would be as disastrous for them.

The OG Ian Paisley died a while ago, not getting that reference, unless your implying he's some sort of ogre or idiot, which I won't contest.

Ah no its Irish for junior
 
The members are committed to make troops available for the EU Battlegroup like with the CSDP. But you weren't members of the latter, so yeah things are going to change, I'm surprised that Portugal and Ireland joined at the last minute.

PS: I didn't realize that Ireland were neutral.

Is there any good reason for Ireland not to play a part in mutual defense though?
 
Principal. We've always maintained neutrality on almost the same level as the Swiss. Hence why we're not a part of NATO.

I think if there was a reasoned debate and everyone was very logical about it then people would let it go
(I doubt any debate would be logical though)
I get why people are protective of it and I think the basic prinicpal is good

Its just not entirely compatible with the direction the EU is going in and kind of needs to go in.
If Sweden was attacked by ... whoever, i'd kind of want to lend them support.
And our own military is woefully under equipped to defend ourselves from any major attack.
We've taken advantage of the fact that you'd kind of expect the british to help us out if push came to shove
Not reciprocating just isn't a reasonable position to take imo
and with Britain leaving the EU ... that assumption needs to be challenged really
 
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Next we have the special deal that May thinks she can negotiate yet throughout the Eu have been consistent in saying the four freedoms are inseparable and to have free movement of capital, services and goods you have to accept free movement of people

So i think by April we either accept that or we accept that we are not getting access to the market for our goods and services
 
I like the fact the EU are showing up Davis for the idiot that he is. You cannot just go off spouting like that when the situation is so finely poised.

I find it rather ironic how British people think the whole world should speak English but don't realise that also means nothing you say goes unnoticed abroad.

Davis would have been sacked in any other job by now or in any other UK parliament.
 
Divorce Bill was and is a stupid newspaper term. It's no more than the continuation of agreed payments until those agreements have run out. Any alleged savings wouldn't start until after that point.
Please note alleged, I'm not claiming there actually will be any savings myself.

It didn't stop the leavers categorically stating we wouldn't pay anything and could just walk away.