Russia's at it again

I don't get this 'leaving a calling card' either. Those guys are spies. They know better than most - what happens to double agents. I'm sure they're already aware of Putin's ruthlessness. It's highly probable that there has been many assassinations from the Russian State, without the media attention.
He wants to put the fear of God into all those 22 (the ones left) and let them know he’s coming after them. It’s also a warning to any others thinking of defecting that he will get them in the end.
 
I read a quote from someone (Putin or other senior chap in Russian government) which atm I can’t find (I’ll have another look when I’ve time) which said words to the effect that no-one who betrays Russia is ever “pardoned”. They are never forgiven. They are always guilty of betrayal. “Pardoning” Skripal was something they had to do for the exchange (the 10 spies from the US) a few years ago. Most countries accept it but Putin says he never forgives betrayal.

I'm not sure Putin would actually say something like that publicly. Although there are more than enough politicians in Russia who are complete weapons. You just have to look at Zakharova and what she said the other day.
 
He wants to put the fear of God into all those 22 (the ones left) and let them know he’s coming after them. It’s also a warning to any others thinking of defecting that he will get them in the end.


That's possible. If that's the case I guess the FSB is leaky as feck at the minute. I mean, we've always had double agents.
 
I don't think anyone is saying it didn't come from Russia, that doesn't mean its a state kill though just as easily they've lost control of the supply which is obviously just as bad.

The criticism is largely around the goverments response, which is more PR than substance.
There’ll be more to come from the government, rest assured. Never sensible to rush in when dealing with Russia. Putin won’t stop trying to get others on that list either.

I’m sure Russia’s nerve agents are very well guarded. Be very out of character for their security to be slack.
 
For those who still seem unsure how the government knows where this nerve agent came from Russia or can’t understand why Russia might use a nerve agent traceable to them there is an easy to read article here from the Independent.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ei-skripal-if-survive-live-body-a8253976.html

Sounds a bit similar to what they're doing with food fraud ("where did this shrimp really come from?") using spectral analysis. Not that I have a clue how it works in detail or anything.
 
There’ll be more to come from the government, rest assured. Never sensible to rush in when dealing with Russia. Putin won’t stop trying to get others on that list either.

I’m sure Russia’s nerve agents are very well guarded. Be very out of character for their security to be slack.


Morozov said Russia have stopped any production of Novichock sometime ago and have no reserves left. Probably not true - and if it was true - then I sure it could be cooked up.
 
The man who invented the poison has been living in the US since 1996.

The site where it was produced and tested was located in Nukus, Uzbekistan and was dismantled and decontaminated by Americans back in 1999.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/1999/05/25/world/us-and-uzbeks-agree-on-chemical-arms-plant-cleanup.html

Are you implying that because these weapons were developed in Uzbekistan that they were never transported anywhere else in Russia, or that Russia had't kept the relevant research papers to replicate the compund elsewhere?

I'm obviously no expert in the handling of chemical weapons but I'm not sure what you are implying by posting that?
 
I doubt he’d admit to having any stock or producing it.

I agree. I just want to hear what that comitee have to say. If it was Russian State beyond a doubt then they should be severly punished.
 
Are you implying that the UK government framed Russia by assassinating a double agent spy with a chemical weapon on its own territory to get Brexit through quietly?
Nope.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/14/nerve-agent-novichok-produced-russia-site-expert

Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the now disbanded UK Chemical, Biological, Radiation and Nuclear regiment and its Nato equivalent, said Shikhany was the sole location for development and production of novichok, dismissing suggestions that the chemical could be found in other places in the former Soviet Union such as Ukraine and Uzbekistan. “They have no more anywhere else,” he said.
This man seems to think that Putin has made his first big mistake for a long time.
 
Are you implying that the UK government framed Russia by assassinating a double agent spy with a chemical weapon on its own territory to get Brexit through quietly?

I suppose it has slightly more credibility than Russia's claim that we did it because we are bitter about them hosting the World Cup.

I think he is implying that the government has managed to look even more clueless and inept than with Brexit.
 
Russia denies novichok production

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says neither Russia nor the Soviet Union had run a programme to develop the novichok nerve agent used to poison Sergei Skripal, according to Interfax news agency.

He said: "I want to state with all possible certainty that the Soviet Union or Russia had no programmes to develop a toxic agent called novichok."
Dear oh dear! Shouldn’t this have been one of the first things they announced.

They really do sound desperate for excuses. Next thing will be is that they’d never heard of until a few days ago.
 
Dear oh dear! Shouldn’t this have been one of the first things they announced.

They really do sound desperate for excuses. Next thing will be is that they’d never heard of until a few days ago.

Quite encouraging that they are now issuing serious denials as opposed to snide “feck you” type statements. The US speech at the UN together with today’s joint four country statement seems to have got their attention.
 
Are you implying that because these weapons were developed in Uzbekistan that they were never transported anywhere else in Russia, or that Russia had't kept the relevant research papers to replicate the compund elsewhere?

I'm obviously no expert in the handling of chemical weapons but I'm not sure what you are implying by posting that?

I'm not implying anything.

You said that Russia have breached international law by losing control of their chemical weapons and wondered what other country would have been able to carry out such an attack. I just pointed out that the poison could have been made somewhere else, since its creator defected to the US over twenty years ago and Americans had an access to the testing site, which the article I posted in my previous post confirms. Doesn't mean it's Americans who did, just means it doesn't have to be necessarily Russians. Not to mention the fact that it's pretty stupid to use the one poison that would lead back to them.
 
I'm not implying anything.

You said that Russia have breached international law by losing control of their chemical weapons and wondered what other country would have been able to carry out such an attack. I just pointed out that the poison could have been made somewhere else, since its creator defected to the US over twenty years ago and Americans had an access to the testing site, which the article I posted in my previous post confirms. Doesn't mean it's Americans who did, just means it doesn't have to be necessarily Russians. Not to mention the fact that it's pretty stupid to use the one poison that would lead back to them.

Because Putin doesn't care that it leads back to him. This sends a message to those who defy him and to rival states that he'll do what he wants without reproach. And there's a history of this happening.
 
I'm not implying anything.

You said that Russia have breached international law by losing control of their chemical weapons and wondered what other country would have been able to carry out such an attack. I just pointed out that the poison could have been made somewhere else, since its creator defected to the US over twenty years ago and Americans had an access to the testing site, which the article I posted in my previous post confirms. Doesn't mean it's Americans who did, just means it doesn't have to be necessarily Russians. Not to mention the fact that it's pretty stupid to use the one poison that would lead back to them.
It was pretty stupid using Polonium to kill Litvinenko but he did. Pretty stupid having two known Russians meeting Litvinenko in a hotel lobby covered with cctv and putting it in his tea but he did. Pretty stupid of them to leave large traces in their hotel room and on the plane but they did.

Putin doesn’t care that anyone knows he’s responsible because he achieved his objective and there was sod all we could do about it. Putin refused their extradition and promoted them. He also got the message out loud and clear that anyone who works against him will be killed sooner or later.
 
I'm not implying anything.

You said that Russia have breached international law by losing control of their chemical weapons and wondered what other country would have been able to carry out such an attack. I just pointed out that the poison could have been made somewhere else, since its creator defected to the US over twenty years ago and Americans had an access to the testing site, which the article I posted in my previous post confirms. Doesn't mean it's Americans who did, just means it doesn't have to be necessarily Russians. Not to mention the fact that it's pretty stupid to use the one poison that would lead back to them.

Seriously, If Harvey Dent had two faces, one would be you and other Raoul.
 
Why would Putin use a Russian nerve agent which leads back to Russia (with the aim of making a statement of the murder of a traitor ) and then deny it?

Can he not decide if it is a message or not?

Simply stating it outright would ensure sanctions against him would be a lot more unified because there'd be no dispute. This method makes it pretty clear what his intentions are but leaves it uncertain enough so that significant politicians with sympathies toward him will try to deny he was responsible, while others will argue against specific actions on the basis there's not enough evidence etc. Sewing dissension is a common tactic of Putin's.
 
Why would Putin use a Russian nerve agent which leads back to Russia (with the aim of making a statement of the murder of a traitor ) and then deny it?

Can he not decide if it is a message or not?
The denials are part of the game. Playing to their home crowd
 
Simply stating it outright would ensure sanctions against him would be a lot more unified because there'd be no dispute. This method makes it pretty clear what his intentions are but leaves it uncertain enough so that significant politicians with sympathies toward him will try to deny he was responsible, while others will argue against specific actions on the basis there's not enough evidence etc. Sewing dissension is a common tactic of Putin's.

That's an excellent point and one that I think makes more sense than that of simply sending a message to past/potential defectors. Those people will already be fully aware of what Putin is capable of and the possible consequences of crossing him. If he wanted to send a message to the people in those circles he surely could do so far more discreetly, a lower profile assassination would presumably be heard just as clearly by those in the Russian intelligence/security community and would avoid the blow back Russia are facing now. Causing division within Western democracies fits well within their more recent pattern of activity too.
 
Have a read of this thread.



Ehm that's not saying anything.
I don't know what he's responding to: but all that you an prove, with the combined evidence of mass spec, NMR, IR, etc, is *what* a compound is. So, we know it is this nerve agent with this chemical structure. There is absolutely nothing like a "Russian signature" that could be detected based on the chemical structure itself.
The only worthwhile context he adds is that it is a difficult reaction and wouldn't be possible without a sophisticated lab. But that again means nothing wrt Russia or anyone else, I imagine every country has a chemistry lab good enough for some difficult synthesis.
The evidence implicating Russia remains political, not chemical.

Edit - my credentials aren't like his, but I can say that interpretative spectroscopy was my strongest field within chemistry.
 
Ehm that's not saying anything.
I don't know what he's responding to: but all that you an prove, with the combined evidence of mass spec, NMR, IR, etc, is *what* a compound is. So, we know it is this nerve agent with this chemical structure. There is absolutely nothing like a "Russian signature" that could be detected based on the chemical structure itself.
The only worthwhile context he adds is that it is a difficult reaction and wouldn't be possible without a sophisticated lab. But that again means nothing wrt Russia or anyone else, I imagine every country has a chemistry lab good enough for some difficult synthesis.
The evidence implicating Russia remains political, not chemical.

Edit - my credentials aren't like his, but I can say that interpretative spectroscopy was my strongest field within chemistry.

His point is that the chemical is difficult and dangerous to produce, is known to have been produced in Russia previously, that the victim was a former Russian spy and that Russia have a track record of attempting to off defectors. Either Russia want it to be known they did this, or someone has chosen to make it look like Russia by using a rare and difficult to produce chemical, known internationally to be associated with Russia, to off a Russian defector.

He is arguing Ockham's razor, and reasonably compellingly I'd say. The chemistry is relevant, not because it couldn't be produced else where, but because it is is difficult to produce and historically linked to Russia. It's a decent argument I feel but not conclusive. It is certainly a better argument than Murray's I'd say.
 
His point is that the chemical is difficult and dangerous to produce, is known to have been produced in Russia previously, that the victim was a former Russian spy and that Russia have a track record of attempting to off defectors. Either Russia want it to be known they did this, or someone has chosen to make it look like Russia by using a rare and difficult to produce chemical, known internationally to be associated with Russia, to off a Russian defector.

He is arguing Ockham's razor, and reasonably compellingly I'd say. The chemistry is relevant, not because it couldn't be produced else where, but because it is is difficult to produce and historically linked to Russia. It's a decent argument I feel but not conclusive. It is certainly a better argument than Murray's I'd say.

Agreed with all this, but I felt he was using spectroscopy as some magic wand to "prove" more than what it can. Again, I didn't read what he was responding to, so I could be completely off here.
 
Agreed with all this, but I felt he was using spectroscopy as some magic wand to "prove" more than what it can. Again, I didn't read what he was responding to, so I could be completely off here.
I believe he was specifically attacking Murray's claims that it wasn't possible to verify which chemical was used without an active sample from Russia. I agree it's a little unclear, but that's twitter for you I guess!
 
"Russia has not only stopped the production of nerve agents, including Novichok, but also completely destroyed all their reserves. This was done in accordance with international agreements under the control of OPCW international observers," Morozov said.
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201803131062469325-russia-nerve-agent/

Russia denies novichok production

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says neither Russia nor the Soviet Union had run a programme to develop the novichok nerve agent used to poison Sergei Skripal, according to Interfax news agency.

He said: "I want to state with all possible certainty that the Soviet Union or Russia had no programmes to develop a toxic agent called novichok."
They’re not singing from the same hymn sheet....has panic set in?

Morozov said they had stopped production and destroyed all reserves yet Ryabkov says they’ve never produced it.
 
I believe he was specifically attacking Murray's claims that it wasn't possible to verify which chemical was used without an active sample from Russia. I agree it's a little unclear, but that's twitter for you I guess!

That is exactly what he was saying. And he’s right.
 
Russia can't have been expecting this backlash. America's response has been flaccid due to obvious reasons but it's certainly created a fuss in Europe. Wonder if Putin's surprised people have given much of a shit, especially after all the other times he's done this without anywhere near the same level of fuss.
 
Russia can't have been expecting this backlash. America's response has been flaccid due to obvious reasons but it's certainly created a fuss in Europe. Wonder if Putin's surprised people have given much of a shit, especially after all the other times he's done this without anywhere near the same level of fuss.

I don’t think they did either, there’s been an unusual lack of calculation in their reply and their general reaction has a bit more blustery and agitated than normal.

I think they expected us to condemn it and brush it under the carpet and they’re not realising that some of the oligarchs are going to get hit in the pocket and they’re not impressed.
 
I mean, literally just 14 days ago Putin pretty much threatened the whole world publicly with a self acclaimed unprecedented nuclear arsenal. Surely he's 100% been expecting the reaction to what happened in Salisbury? It pretty much looks like the icing on the cake of his election campaign.

He's not just taking the piss out of Europe by the way, he's putting the Trump admin in an awkward position too. I can't find the video right now but Trump looked amusingly uncomfortable when he had to admit Russian involvement while sitting next to Varadkar.