This makes his brexit strategy stupid if that's the case.
Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Labour doesn't need to win over most Tory voters. Only some of them. Which shouldn't be too big an ask, seeing what an absolute shambles the Brexit negotiations have been, followed by the Windruff fiasco. Plus they should be trying to hold onto the Labour voters who switched to Lib Dem/Greens. These were the low-hanging fruit Corbyn has managed to alienate. He was never going to win votes from Tory Brexiteers.
Their steadfast refusal to oppose Brexit seems bizarrely targetted towards winning UKIP voters, if anything. Who, predictably, voted Tory instead.
Disagree, the brexit strategy is about not losing future support of the Labour Brexiteers whilst putting pressure on the tories for soft brexit.
There's no substantial gains to be had until brexit resolves but if they went down the route so many here want of not respecting the result that'll be it for Labour.
So many more than just here, surely?
"Wrong to leave" has a 5 point lead on the last YouGov. Obviously an electoral dead-end.
It’s definitely possible I’m in an anti-Brexit echo chamber having lived in London and hanging out in this place (which is very critical of Brexit) but surely to feck the majority of Brits have seen by now that what they voted for is not what Brexit actually represents? I refuse to believe that the referendum would have the same result if it happened again tomorrow.
If Yvette Cooper was Labour leader it would have a 20 point lead. Or something.
The Momentum response to this has been typically frustrating.
What do you want them to say?
I actually think it might.
This Brexit thing is so complex, so tangled, it almost defies unravelling or explaining.
But there is definitely at least one thread running through it, one constituency, that agrees with Ubik's "wrong to leave" assertion - but still thinks we have to go through with it anyway in the name of democratic legitimacy. In essence, yes its wrong, but it is what we voted for and we have to do it anyway. Not saying its a majority opinion, but then who the hell knows what the majority opinion is.
I meet a lot of emboldened Leavers these days. A lot of people who completely reject the notion things will be that bad if we leave. The phrase has gone out of fashion a bit, but its basically the "project fear" argument reincarnated. And I meet a whole load of other people, who probably have more of an overlap with the first lot I said, who feel the UK is being pushed around by a spiteful and vindictive EU, and thinks, basically: "if you are going to treat us like this then screw you, we'll go our own way and let the chips fall where they may." Also people who think yes it will be hard in the short term, but in the long term we'll be better off untethered from a dysfunctional EU.
Conversely I cant think of a single person I have met in real life who was for Brexit but has now changed their mind. I have come across people like that calling into LBC or writing columns or whatever, so I know they exist. But having not actually met anyone like that I have a sense they are over-represented in the media.
Again, based on nothing but my own hunch, I think by far the most people feel exactly the same as they did on the eve of the vote. The argument feels tribal rather than rational. Hence, while it does happen, people switching sides feels about as likely as someone changing their football allegiance.
No 65% lead with her l'm 5% less bad as the Tories,with her new Labour triangulation brand of politics.
Yes, I think it's the echo chamber. The remain-leave vote here was something like 70-30 or 80-20 if not worse. And the vocal Leave-rs here are still as committed and convinced as they were at the time of the vote. AFAIK polling reflects that - there isn't a substantial regret vote.
Labour is the party that has the trickiest play with Brexit. The people for whom the negative impacts of leave are the most immediate is bis business. Labour shifting thier stand on Brexit won't automatically get them business cash or votes. If they pivot to both Remain and pro-business, there is no trace of anything Left.
Conservative voters were more firmly leave compared to Labour and now the party is a home for ex-UKIP too, Lib Dems were obviously remain. Labour voters were more split than any of the other 3.
Hence the balancing act.
I think the 2017 GE and these elections have gone far better than they would have for Labour. At the time of Brexit, I thought it meant that Labour would be locked out till 2025 because of the impossible balancing act that they would have to do. Right now they have a better-than-50% chance of being in power whenever the next GE is held.
I don't think many Brexiters have switched sides either, but then again they're not going to if all they read is how stupid and racist they are. I'm afraid the tactics of many Remainers indicate they may not be quite as bright as they think they are, unfortunately. If people who care about remaining concentrated more on the economic damage it will do to jobs and standard of living, and less on categorising and insulting their opponents, they might actually get somewhere.
I'd love for that to be the case but i don't see this majority of people that think Brexit should be cancelled. I'm sure there's a few polls that say they do exist but they usually only pop up after the latest goverment feck up then bounce back and they depend on the question asked. Even a decent percentage of remain voters seem to poll as wanting to get on with it.
Let's not forgot we already have a party championing another vote. Hardly sweeping the polls are they
Do you think? I know there was a lot of "leaving is racist" nonsense in the original campaign, but to be fair there was a lot about the economic damage it would do as well. That was what gave rise to the infamous "we've all had enough of experts" comment, which, laughable as it was, in retrospect actually turned out to be bang on the money. It really is much more heart than head. Telling people there will be fewer jobs wont work, telling people they are racist wont work, telling people the EU has done amazing things for them wont work. I think most people have an instinctive feeling about the EU and they wont be budged from it.
Motherfcuker I just want to see the Tories and their silly ideology booted the fcuk out.
Smelly hippies or smarmy Blairites doing it makes no difference to me.
I agree things can sometimes be just simpler than we make them out to be, but I ask this, if 50 percent or whatever of British exports go to the EU what are they, where are they made, how many jobs are there and in what constituency? If the City shrinks by 20% how much tax would be lost, what would the tax rises have to be to make up for it? I'm sure there are well-read caftards that know these sort of things, but rather than highlight them they spend time calling the majority stupid and racist instead.
The Brexit Leave vote is entrenched. No one is currently arguing against Brexit except the Lib Dems.
Labour obviously think that moving to openly oppose Brexit would be catastrophic for them, imo. A view that is remarkably similar to that held by a significant portion of Conservative MPs at a guess.
Labour obviously think that moving to openly oppose Brexit would be catastrophic for them, imo. A view that is remarkably similar to that held by a significant portion of Conservative MPs at a guess.
Implying Brexiteers can read.
Where you are actually wrong though is the notion that remain somehow failed to talk about facts and reality enough
What I think remain failed to do was to create an emotive story - a sense that a vote for Remain was anything other than a vote for the status quo. Now maybe it was impossible to reverse 25 years of right-wing propaganda in the course of the campaign, and of course large swathes of the British public are bigots/racists (see public opinion on Windrush)
http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/
I suppose the argument for automatic reduction is about the increased competition UK would face, automatic trading advantages are removed by Brexit when EU membership ceases.
Remain did talk figures in the campaign itself, although not enough, but I'm talking about since, when they've been useless. The comment about reading nicely illustrates my other point, thanks.
The point that I can’t make jokes about disparaging comments towards leavers?
Thanks. I know the information is available, I'm saying Remain should have been drilling down into it, what companies, where, whose jobs and shoving it down people's throats.A good two thirds or so of Labour voters did opt for Remain, but a lot of those voters will stay with Labour provided they don't go full Farage-Brexit because Labour are just about their only viable option unless they want to waste a vote on the Lib Dems, excepting the few constituencies where the Lib Dems are competitive. In this sense Labour can afford to be sort of for Brexit, without alienating their voters. We saw this last year when a lot of young liberal Remainers turned out for them in record numbers, in spite of the fact Corbyn was essentially arguing for an end to freedom of movement.
The problem is that Labour will lose a good portion of their Leave voters if they straight up intend to ignore the Brexit vote. There are a lot of voters in Britain who don't feel they're being listened, and the old Labour approach of tentatively telling them they're wrong while saying you'll maybe do something about their concerns while not doing anything about their concerns at all probably won't work. These people are disillusioned and because of a direct media agenda have largely blamed a lot of their woes on the EU as an organisation. There's the potential for Corbyn to be hit quite badly if he actively rails against Brexit. Even though it's clearly the sensible position to adopt. In this sense he's being a lot less honest than people give him credit for, but a lot more savvy at the same time.
The problem is that Labour will lose a good portion of their Leave voters if they straight up intend to ignore the Brexit vote. There are a lot of voters in Britain who don't feel they're being listened, and the old Labour approach of tentatively telling them they're wrong while saying you'll maybe do something about their concerns while not doing anything about their concerns at all probably won't work. These people are disillusioned and because of a direct media agenda have largely blamed a lot of their woes on the EU as an organisation. There's the potential for Corbyn to be hit quite badly if he actively rails against Brexit. Even though it's clearly the sensible position to adopt. In this sense he's being a lot less honest than people give him credit for, but a lot more savvy at the same time.
Yeah, I don't mean to be overly defensive of Corbyn here but he's genuinely a very good campaigner. I'd say that's one of his problems as leader...he's typically at his best when he's got something close-by to focus in his energies on, because after decades of being a backbench MP he's generally been used to occasionally focusing on single issues as opposed to the larger political picture.
Momentum are very good campaigners for all the criticism they get and know how to use social media and the like to full effect. Labour also have that advantage of just having a feck-ton more members than the government, and when they can use that as well to full effect they've got an inherent advantage in that they have more people to campaign with.
Something more conciliatory. They can point out that Labour did well in places where Momentum campaigned whilst recognising that the rest of the results were awful for Labour, and that the 'us vs them' mentality (as well as Corbyn's policy) that has caused it. Going on the attack and characterising anyone that points out that the results were disappointing in the usual Momentum way just entrenches the issues.
If Labour can't win seats without huge grassroots canvassing against this horror show of a government then that's something that should really worry people.
Frankly, I've become a single issue voter in the past year and I'm not voting for a party that supports Brexit in any election so I'm done with Labour for the foreseeable future and I'm easily one of the most left wing members of this forum. If Labour are losing voters like me, and trust me they are, and not appealing to people in the centre either then they're in trouble.
Sorry, just following on from what I said before: again, I think the economic harm argument has been tried to a very significant degree and has had almost no traction.
Above I said nothing would work. And I still suspect that is the case. But the thing that hasnt really been attempted to any significant degree, either before or since the vote, was laying out the positive case for the EU. So not "leaving = economic damage", but more "look at what the EU has actually done for you" or "these are the things that the EU can do for you in the years ahead".
There has been a bit, to be fair, and it always gets shot down. What I have noticed has invariably (and rightly) been about workers' rights, and the comeback is always that the UK gave X, Y and Z rights to workers, maternity leave or whatever, without any EU decree coming down. Occasionally "your kids want to have the choice to live and work in Europe," but then I get the sense that most people in the UK think they dont want to go and work in Europe anyway because they dont speak European.
I think the main reason this argument has been largely ignored (and for the millionth time on here I again emphasise that I voted remain and would do so again) is that it is so hard to make. And that says a lot in itself. It is really hard to make a positive case for Europe. What does the future of Europe look like, honestly? Uncontrolled immigration, quota systems to relieve the pressure on Greece and Spain, continued in-fighting between the North and South over austerity, fudged and unworkable compromises. Even I can see that - and I am ready to sign up for it. But what positive? Remainers can call bullshit but at least Brexit have a compelling vision: freedom to do business with the faster growing parts of the world, which will supercharge and reinvigorate our economy and fuel emerging markets-level growth. Who cares that it makes no sense to forgo trade with your neighbours to do more with people 5000 miles away. Who cares that in order to do that trade we will have to relax standards and expose consumers to things that the EU has judged unsafe? That's just naysaying. At least there is a vision. I just dont think Remain has a vision like that. the EU isnt going anywhere. And if it is, it isnt in the UK's gift to paint that picture because it depends on Germany, mainly, and to some extent France, to accept that the EU needs fundamental, root and branch reform. Given the deal they offered before the vote it seems doubtful they will reform a single leaf, let alone roots or branches.
So to come full circle (and apologies if this is all over the place, this is a stream of consciousness) when I say nothing would work, I think I mean nothing coming from inside the UK will work. What would work would be a willingness on the EU side to reform itself - coupled with some evidence it was actually capable of doing so. Part of which would doubtless be about immigration and freedom of movement, but part of which would probably be about its dysfunctional decision-making processes.
In the absence of that it is much easier to say "if we leave we will lose jobs," "if we leave we will be poorer", "if we leave the Tories will liberalise the economy to the extent that zero hours contracts will become the norm." But as I said, people seem impervious to those arguments.
On this particular point I refer you to the "Weve all had enough of experts" comment.
I think this information has been put out there to be honest. The problem is it is by its nature speculative and people just dont believe it when it is coming from the other side.
But I completely agree how counterproductive calling people stupid and racist is. I think I have definitely fallen into that trap myself in the past. There was one book I read, which I have plugged on here at least two or three times in the past, but will continue to do because it is so, so good in terms of helping remainers like me understand what they are up against: The Road To Somewhere. Since I read that I now understand where Leavers are coming from in a way I just didnt before the vote. So now, while I still dont agree with them, I understand them better, and certainly do not think they are racist or stupid.
EDIT: sorry for the long posts in the wrong thread.
There's pretty much no evidence for this though.
I honestly don't know if Corbyn is personally for Brexit or against it. Whether that means his tactics are working, well I don't know that either. Many on the left seem to think Labour's lack of honesty is necessary and unavoidable, but I can't say it's very attractive myself.
The other 1/3 is maybe now 'Red Tory' though isn't it? And Labour need them back - particularly out in the regional cities.
Which would perhaps lead on to saying that Labour can't win until times are post-Brexit & possibly / probably post-Corbyn.
Conservative dilemmas which are not that different to Labour's really, don't seem to attract the same coverage somehow.
They're good posts even if they are in the wrong thread. Well, sigh, you could be right about experts, and thanks for introducing the word counterproductive, that is what I was trying to say.Stephen Bush put it a in interesting way -
Labour - Not enough big cities in England
Tories - Too many big cities in England
big regional differences are causing this big two away spit voting.
There might not be in terms of lost votes, but you only have to speak to 'core' Corbyn voters to hear how universal complaints are about huge parts of his platform are.
They might still consider Labour the least bad option, but the enthusiasm that was present even as recently as last year still seems to be drying up rapidly.
Yes, I think 'Remain' was much more of a 'hard sell' than they imagined. And then once the arguments get 'adversarial' in a binary-choice 2 horse race, they are definitely verging towards being 'counter-productive,' innit? Even at the level of getting the Remain vote 'out' as they say.
Cameron was a fecking disaster. Tories just brush themselves down & carry on like nothing has happened. Unless them doing that breaks down in some way at some stage, Labour have a tough job on in the strong Leave areas of which there are many. And UKIP are mainly disaffected Tories at heart (my opinion, might be wrong).
Cameron was a fecking disaster. Tories just brush themselves down & carry on like nothing has happened. Unless them doing that breaks down in some way at some stage, Labour have a tough job on in the strong Leave areas of which there are many. And UKIP are mainly disaffected Tories at heart (my opinion, might be wrong).
It’s entirely possible that the voters Corbyn’s Labour appeal to are not great at turning-out for locals.
Likely, I think. Surely his strategy is principally about getting historic non-voters out to vote for him. For those people local elections might be a bridge too far. The main thing is to get them out for a GE.
Time will tell but imo Corbyn is fishing in waters with no fish and risks losing what he already has in his boat.
I know a few people who voted for him in the primaries, who are extremely bitter.
Why should they be passionate about someone who seems so blase about an issue they care most about.
If Corbyn allows the tories to get away with their version of brexit (even support, according to Fox), he will pay dearly.
Kids. Unless there's freebies involved.
Yeah, most of Corbyn’s voters are just out for freebies for themselves, whereas the Conservatives are sensible sadists that turn out just because they enjoy punishing the poor and disabled