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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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balaks said:
Oh he will be. Trump will negotiate a trade deal with the UK it just will be on his terms. He holds all the cards - as does the EU. The UK really has made a total mess of this and generations are going to suffer as a result.
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He'll have to win the next Presidential election. I'm not so sure that's a given.
 
MadMike said:
He'll have to win the next Presidential election. I'm not so sure that's a given.
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There is no obvious challenger out there - the Democrats are in utter turmoil and Trump is delivering on much of what he said he would which will only strengthen his support within the (massive) group of people who supported him the first time. Not only that the economy is doing well. He will not only win a second term it will be an absolute landslide.
 
Drifter said:
I think him winning by a landslide is wishful thinking .
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Believe me I couldn't think of anything wose - certainly not wishful thinking from me as I think he is an absolute cretin. I can't ignore what I'm seeing though.
 
Drifter said:
I think him winning by a landslide is wishful thinking .
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Yeah that's definitely not going to happen unless people have different definitions of "landslide". But he could easily win because the Dems are pretty uninspiring and disunited.
 
FlawlessThaw said:
Yeah that's definitely not going to happen unless people have different definitions of "landslide". But he could easily win because the Dems are pretty uninspiring and disunited.
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What I mean by landslide is that he will the next term comfortably with little or no effort.
 
balaks said:
There is no obvious challenger out there - the Democrats are in utter turmoil and Trump is delivering on much of what he said he would which will only strengthen his support within the (massive) group of people who supported him the first time. Not only that the economy is doing well. He will not only win a second term it will be an absolute landslide.
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To be fair that doesn't really matter at this stage. The key things for the Democrats is to get united behind the person who does end up being their nominee

balaks said:
What I mean by landslide is that he will the next term comfortably with little or no effort.
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Nah that's not going to happen, he'll have to put a shift in. He has 40% of votes guaranteed, he'll have to work for that additional 5%+
 
There's an interesting article on Politico regarding Trump, the "Special Relationship", Brexit and FTAs.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...ked-brexit-then-he-used-it-as-leverage-219001

Contrary to the rhetoric, the Trump administration has pursued a predatory policy toward Britain designed to capitalize on the UK’s need for new trading arrangements after Brexit. The United States has sought to exact painful concessions that it was unable to secure when Britain negotiated as a member of the EU.

The Trump administration helped block an agreement between London and Brussels on its agricultural quotas in the World Trade Organization. It has offered Britain a worse deal on the Open Skies Agreement than it currently has as an EU member. Senior Trump administration officials have made it clear that it will insist the UK adopt many U.S. regulations as a condition for an FTA, even though this would necessarily limit Britain’s ability to negotiate a trade deal with the remaining 27 members of the EU. Some demands, like access to the National Health Service for U.S. firms, would be especially controversial in the UK.
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So that is what taking back control is going to look like. It'll be glorious...
 
balaks said:
Wishful thinking I'm afraid.
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I'm afraid of this as well, mainly because the democrats can't really seem to produce an interesting candidate that will not put off the people Bernie rallied behind his cause in 2016. If they can't mobilize this demographic part of their voters they will lose again.

The only hope I actually have is that enough democratic voters will say no matter who we vote into office it will all be better than Trump.
 
I think May might just be one of the weakest leader's I've ever seen. Mere hours after Trump mocking her and her plans in an interview she just chooses to ignore it and lick his arse anyway.
 
Anyone who believes the US and UK have agreed a free trade deal is a muppet.
 
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Trump has no respect for the sovereignty of other countries. He couldn't care less about the UK and the affect Brexit would have on Britain. He just wants to see division and infighting in the EU and in NATO.

The way he's behaving on this trip is appalling. Especially at a time such as this, with the political instability and uncertainty.
 
Massive Spanner said:
I think May might just be one of the weakest leader's I've ever seen. Mere hours after Trump mocking her and her plans in an interview she just chooses to ignore it and lick his arse anyway.
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Not that I like May or anything, I just don't think she has any reasonable options here. Trump has shown he's never one to back down from an argument, out of pride, regardless of whether he's right/wrong and what the repercussions are. You throw jibes back at him and he will proceed to escalate to no end. Both sides will end up as losers but probably the UK more so.

So her best option is to ignore and move straight past them.
 
Smores said:
Is even one person happy with Brexit in its current form?[/B] It seems to me that our own government wishes they didn't have to do it the brexiteers hate it, remainers don't want it and foreign leaders don't either.

When May claims this meets the countries needs i really can't fathom who or what she's referring to?
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Maybe not, but democracy is about compromise.

Is anyone happy with the good friday agreement? Republicans didn't get what they want. Unionists didn't get what they want. But with everyone unhappy, we get peace, and that makes everyone happy.

Brexit needs a compromise similar to Mrs Mays. The Leavers aren't happy. The Remained aren't happy. But with everyone unhappy, maybe we can accept it and move on.
 
rcoobc said:
Maybe not, but democracy is about compromise.

Is anyone happy with the good friday agreement? Republicans didn't get what they want. Unionists didn't get what they want. But with everyone unhappy, we get peace, and that makes everyone happy.

Brexit needs a compromise similar to Mrs Mays. The Leavers aren't happy. The Remained aren't happy. But with everyone unhappy, maybe we can accept it and move on.
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The Good Friday Agreement delivered something important though. Despite their disagreements about the deal, the end result was something everyone wanted. What does this deliver to Remain supporters? Thanks Mrs May, you didn’t feck our country quite as badly as you otherwise might have?

Also the EU aren’t going to accept it anyway, so what does it matter?
 
Kentonio said:
Also the EU aren’t going to accept it anyway, so what does it matter?
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Well that is indeed what the wisdom of the Caf says, but I'm not so sure. Presumably Davis et al think the EU will accept May's proposal, or a doctored version of it at any rate, otherwise they wouldn't have resigned.

I think a greater bar to a deal at the moment is parliament itself, I can see a backlash from many Tories that will mean a significant Tory rebellion, and if Corbyn did actually manage to formulate a plan and exercise control then May's plan could fail here.

As to the inevitable question 'what would happen after that?' well who the feck knows, 'cos I don't.
 
Only just realised the exit proposal is available online. Read it and weep, chaps.

I obviously couldn't be arsed reading the whole thing but if it's anywhere near as vague and insubstantial as their proposals re Northern Ireland then May et al will be laughed out of Brussels. I mean, fecking hell, look at the state of this.


4. Protecting our strong and historic ties with Ireland and maintaining the Common Travel Area
Maintaining our strong and historic ties with Ireland will be an important priority for the UK in the talks ahead. This includes protecting the Common Travel Area (CTA).

4.1 The UK and Ireland are inescapably intertwined through our shared history, culture and geography. It is a unique relationship: there are hundreds of thousands of Irish nationals residing in the UK and of UK nationals residing in Ireland. There are also close ties and family connections, particularly across the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Further information is provided in Annex B.

4.2 The relationship between the two countries has never been better or more settled than today, thanks to the strong political commitment from both Governments to deepen and broaden our modern partnership. Two recent State Visits, by Her Majesty The Queen in May 2011 and by President Higgins in April 2014, have helped cement this partnership; no one wants to see a return to the borders of the past. The Prime Minister is committed to maintaining the closest of ties and has already met the Taoiseach several times since taking office, most recently in Dublin in January 2017.
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Ok, this is number 4 on the list so at least it's something they've put a lot of thought into. I mean, there isn't even the vaguest hint of an actual proposal but fear not, the detail must be in Annex B. Didn't include the whole of section 4 but it's all just more of the same shit. Wibbling on about how important the relationship is and how they're going to try to preserve that special relationship, without saying what will actually change, post-Brexit. Like, literally not even a hint.

Anyhoo, on to Annex B. Let's get down to the nitty gritty!

Annex B: UK/Ireland
Overview
B.1 Ireland is our closest neighbour, and the only country with which the UK shares a land border. Our countries are intertwined through our shared history, culture and geography, and through our shared commitment to the Belfast Agreement, that provides the cornerstone to political stability in Northern Ireland.

B.2 The UK Prime Minister and the Taoiseach have traditionally held an annual summit to take stock of progress and Permanent Secretaries and Secretaries-General from the UK and Ireland meet every autumn to discuss progress and maintain momentum.

B.3 The Government is determined to protect and build on the strong historic ties between the UK and Ireland as the UK prepares to leave the EU.

Northern Ireland
B.4 Nowhere in the UK is our relationship with Ireland more important than in Northern Ireland.

B.5 This Government’s policy is to see a secure, stable and prosperous Northern Ireland, within a strong UK. We are committed to the principle of consent enshrined in the Belfast Agreement, which makes clear that Northern Ireland’s constitutional position is a matter for the people of Northern Ireland to determine. However, our clearly-stated preference is to retain Northern Ireland’s current constitutional position: as part of the UK, but with strong links to Ireland. Maintaining political stability in Northern Ireland is a core part of that policy. This, in turn, is dependent on a number of elements, including:

  • a growing economy, which relies among other things on practical cross-border linkages
  • an effective security policy, on which cross-border cooperation is vital
  • continued adherence to the constitutional framework, rights and institutions provided for in the Belfast Agreement
B.6 The Government recognises that Northern Ireland’s particular circumstances present a range of particular challenges to be taken into account when preparing for our exit from the EU. We are committed to making a success of exit for the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland, and to working with the Northern Ireland Executive to ensure that Northern Ireland’s particular circumstances are factored into our wider preparations.
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Um.. ok? But, you know, Brexit? What happens then? Even a fecking hint about what is going to change would be just great. Thanks in advance.

Rights of British and Irish citizens
B.7 Since well before the establishment of the EU, Irish citizens have had a special status within the UK, rooted in the Ireland Act 1949 and reflected in the British Nationality Acts. This status provides Irish citizens in the UK with additional rights beyond those associated with common membership of the EU. Similar reciprocal arrangements exist for British citizens within Ireland. In addition, the Belfast Agreement confirmed the right of the people of Northern Ireland to identify as British, or Irish, or both; to hold citizenship accordingly; and to equal treatment irrespective of their chosen identity.

B.8 The Government remains firmly committed to the Belfast Agreement and recognises the importance of maintaining the special status of Irish citizens within the UK. As we have explained in Chapter 4, we will protect this reciprocal treatment once the UK has left the EU.

Free movement of people across the land border
B.9 The Common Travel Area (CTA) has provided free movement of people between the UK and Ireland (and the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man) for nearly a century. Originally an administrative arrangement, it is now reflected in each state’s application of national immigration policy.

B.10 We value the flexibility that the CTA provides for free movement of people between these islands. This is particularly important in Northern Ireland, where communities are linked across the land border with Ireland. As explained in Chapter 4, we want to protect the ability to move freely between the UK and Ireland – North-South and East-West, recognising the special importance of this to people in their daily lives, particularly on the island of Ireland.
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I feel like I'm going fecking mad here. PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT THE PAST AND THE PRESENT AND TELL US WHAT CHANGES AFTER BREXIT!!!
 
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Maintaining free and frictionless trade, in particular across the land border
B.11 The UK and Irish economies are closely linked, through trade and cross-border investments as well as through the free flow of goods, utilities, services and people. There are more than 50 Irish companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, more than from any other country.104

B.12 The Northern Ireland economy is deeply integrated with that of Ireland. In 2015, Ireland was by far Northern Ireland’s biggest trading partner, with goods exports worth £2.1 billion (33 per cent of total goods exports) and imports of £1.6 billion (27 per cent).105 The integrated nature of the two economies is particularly the case in the agri-food sector and its supply chain. This sector is of key importance to Northern Ireland’s economy, sometimes described as its ‘backbone’.106 Much of the so-called ‘cross-border trade’ between Northern Ireland and Ireland includes both external trade, in the sense in which it would normally be recognised, and inherently local trade in local markets that simply happens to cross the border. About 30 per cent of the milk produced on Northern Ireland’s farms (over 600 million litres) is exported for processing in Ireland.107 More than 10,000 live pigs are exported from Ireland to Northern Ireland every week.108 Food, beverages and tobacco account for some 48 per cent of cross-border manufacturing trade.109

B.13 The Single Electricity Market operating on the island of Ireland provides both Ireland and Northern Ireland with affordable, sustainable and secure access to electricity for both businesses and domestic customers. The former First and deputy First Ministers of Northern Ireland highlighted this as an important priority for Northern Ireland and this Government recognises the importance of ensuring that it is secured following our departure from the EU.

B.14 As Chapter 8 makes clear, we want to ensure that cross-border trade with the EU – and particularly with Ireland – is as frictionless as possible when we leave the EU. We are committed to negotiating an exit deal that works for the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland. We will work with the Irish Government and the Northern Ireland Executive to minimise frictions and administrative burdens and to find a practical solution that keeps the border as seamless and frictionless as possible, recognising the unique economic, social and political context of the land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
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I don't even...
 
Strong cross-border cooperation on policing and justice
B.15 Chapter 11 highlights the importance this Government places on maintaining strong cooperation with our European partners in the fight against crime and terrorism. We recognise the particular significance of this in Northern Ireland. The major reviews of policing and justice that followed the Belfast Agreement recommended a strengthening of cooperation between law enforcement and criminal and civil justice agencies.110 Today’s effective cooperation and coordination between the justice and security agencies in Northern Ireland and Ireland are essential in containing the threat from paramilitary groups, whose objective is to threaten Northern Ireland’s security and to undermine political stability there. This operational and practical cross-border cooperation exemplifies the sort of relationship we want to have with the EU post-exit.
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That's it?! That's the end of Annex B?

Jesus fecking wept. We're all doomed...
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Only just realised the exit proposal is available online. Read it and weep, chaps.

I obviously couldn't be arsed reading the whole thing but if it's anywhere near as vague and insubstantial as their proposals re Northern Ireland then May et al will be laughed out of Brussels. I mean, fecking hell, look at the state of this.




Ok, this is number 4 on the list so at least it's something they've put a lot of thought into. I mean, there isn't even the vaguest hint of an actual proposal but fear not, the detail must be in Annex B. Didn't include the whole of section 4 but it's all just more of the same shit. Wibbling on about how important the relationship is and how they're going to try to preserve that special relationship, without saying what will actually change, post-Brexit. Like, literally not even a hint.

Anyhoo, on to Annex B. Let's get down to the nitty gritty!



Um.. ok? But, you know, Brexit? What happens then?


I feel like I'm going fecking mad here. PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT THE PAST AND THE PRESENT AND TELL US WHAT HAPPENS AFTER BREXIT!!!
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You're right of course, but the thing is, both the EU and Eire don't have any solution either, so a load of waffle that everyone can pretend means something in some way might just get the signatures anyway.
 
711 said:
You're right of course, but the thing is, both the EU and Eire don't have any solution either, so a load of waffle that everyone can pretend means something in some way might just get the signatures anyway.
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They demonstrably do though. It's just not a solution that the UK government like.
 
711 said:
Well that is indeed what the wisdom of the Caf says, but I'm not so sure. Presumably Davis et al think the EU will accept May's proposal, or a doctored version of it at any rate, otherwise they wouldn't have resigned.

I think a greater bar to a deal at the moment is parliament itself, I can see a backlash from many Tories that will mean a significant Tory rebellion, and if Corbyn did actually manage to formulate a plan and exercise control then May's plan could fail here.

As to the inevitable question 'what would happen after that?' well who the feck knows, 'cos I don't.
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They won't accept it and it has nothing to do with the caf. In fact, you wouldn't accept it yourself if the UK offered a deal where they are equivalent to 27 countries and where nothing is defined and open to unilateral creation.
 
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Pogue Mahone said:
That's it?! That's the end of Annex B?

Jesus fecking wept. We're all doomed...
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I feel sorry the poor civil servants writing this. I mean can you imagine the policy meetings they've done to get an idea of what the ministers want to put in the proposal. Not surprising they've had to fill it with vague nonsense
 
711 said:
You're right of course, but the thing is, both the EU and Eire don't have any solution either, so a load of waffle that everyone can pretend means something in some way might just get the signatures anyway.
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They do have a solution, it's called staying in the single market. Because that's the only solution.

The UK are the one's who decided to leave, and thus tear up the solution that was already in place. Thus they come up with the solution. Simples.
 
711 said:
You're right of course, but the thing is, both the EU and Eire don't have any solution either, so a load of waffle that everyone can pretend means something in some way might just get the signatures anyway.
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It's not up to them to come up with a proposal but, if they had to, I'm sure they'd suggest that Northern Ireland remains in the customs union. That's not their call to make but at least it's a concrete outcome which "fixes" the issue of the Northern Irish land border.

This is an opportunity for Britain to present a proposal of their own. As proposals go, the lack of any actual proposal must make this document a bit of a world first.
 
711 said:
You're right of course, but the thing is, both the EU and Eire don't have any solution either, so a load of waffle that everyone can pretend means something in some way might just get the signatures anyway.
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There are three solutions:

1. Stay in the Customs Union (or something practically the same even if re-named as a fig leaf for Brexiteers)
2. Move the customs border to the Irish Sea so the island of Ireland is one zone (not popular with the DUP who prop up May’s government)
3. Say screw the consequences for the GFA and impose a hard border again between North and South.

The UK government does not want to commit publicly to any of those choices which is why, 2 years after the referendum, they are still dealing in waffle and platitudes.
 
Smores said:
I feel sorry the poor civil servants writing this. I mean can you imagine the policy meetings they've done to get an idea of what the ministers want to put in the proposal. Not surprising they've had to fill it with vague nonsense
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It's all just so mental. Straight out of the Thick Of It. That useless prick Davis has been working on this for how long now and he's literally come up with nothing? Zip. Nada.

Like going to the doctor with some sort of serious illness and him saying "don't worry, I got this, I'll get back to you". A year later, you're on death's door. Any chance of a cure, doc? "Oh we'll definitely cure you. Don't worry about that. We'll use technology or something. See you again in a year".

You had one job, you wanker!
 
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