I'm pretty sure that EU leaders publicly stated that it was a lose lose situation which iirc was received as a threat or lack of will.
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I'm pretty sure that EU leaders publicly stated that it was a lose lose situation which iirc was received as a threat or lack of will.
Its certainly nothing insurmountable
that said (and I dont have more up to date figures) but in 2015 certainly by far the biggest net contributors were Germany and UK
im not sure germany would pick up all the extra - and I suspect that with the uptick in several EU economies it will be manageable to plug the gap - but there will be a gap
something around 10 billion euros over 70 million people in the uk though is under £150 a year and lets be honest thats peanuts (about 40p a day) and the cost of leaving is most probably going to be a lot more than that.
still though its a loose loose scenario - and as I say no matter who looses most its still bad deal for both sides (though politically probably more palitable than being seen to conceed to much - again for both sides)
Its certainly nothing insurmountable
that said (and I dont have more up to date figures) but in 2015 certainly by far the biggest net contributors were Germany and UK
im not sure germany would pick up all the extra - and I suspect that with the uptick in several EU economies it will be manageable to plug the gap - but there will be a gap
something around 10 billion euros over 70 million people in the uk though is under £150 a year and lets be honest thats peanuts (about 40p a day) and the cost of leaving is most probably going to be a lot more than that.
still though its a loose loose scenario - and as I say no matter who looses most its still bad deal for both sides (though politically probably more palitable than being seen to conceed to much - again for both sides)
The budget is supposed to be reduced, it has been talked about for a long time now, iirc it was before 2016 and it has been made official in the 12 months. Now for me we still have a problem and it's your last sentence, the EU isn't going to change its legal framework for a third country, a country that logically will have for main position to exploit the EU market from the outside, I feel that people still don't accept the notion of being outside.
Its certainly nothing insurmountable
that said (and I dont have more up to date figures) but in 2015 certainly by far the biggest net contributors were Germany and UK
im not sure germany would pick up all the extra - and I suspect that with the uptick in several EU economies it will be manageable to plug the gap - but there will be a gap
something around 10 billion euros over 70 million people in the uk though is under £150 a year and lets be honest thats peanuts (about 40p a day) and the cost of leaving is most probably going to be a lot more than that.
still though its a loose loose scenario - and as I say no matter who looses most its still bad deal for both sides (though politically probably more palitable than being seen to conceed to much - again for both sides)
Yes both sides lose but it's the degree of loss that is to be considered. Yes the EU will lose some money and have more difficult access to the UK but they still have all their agreements and deals in place with everyone else. The UK will effectively cut themselves from everyone they have deals with (through and with the EU) and start again. There's no comparison in the degree of loss.
And one thing I'm certain of is that the EU will not be blackmailed regarding the money.
Im not sure a deal is in anybodys interest (politically) despite it clearly being in everybodys interest (economically)
Certainly cant see the EU wavering on the freedoms being indivisible though they probably wont even have to say that as i doubt they will even reach agreement on Ireland so wont even start to negotiate (officially) on trade
Cliff Edge Brexit - Farrage et al blaming the EU - lots of bitching and moaning and corbyn asking about buses
Agreed.
The Irish border was always the biggest problem and I do not see how that can be solved - Brexit and the GFA are incompatible.
Whatever happens the EU will be blamed as it always has, if it's a cliff edge Farage will probably disappear but hopefully the Brexiters will eventually realise what poison he has been to their lives.
Interestingly I do wonder how its going to be solved even in a no deal Brexit... there is of course the "backstop position" but also nothing is agreed till everything is agreed and May has already said no PM could agree to the backstop position.
Dance off with Merkle to see if we get a deal?
love the thread title change but this is 10+ year old feud and nothing to do with Brexit
Oh, and 35 boats against 1. Cowards
March 26th 2019 - Farrage will be on the telly demanding HMS Arc Royal be recommissioned & refitted for scallop fishing (at the EU's expense)
"Your mother was a hamster".
I have no idea what will happen with the Irish border in a no deal situation , because that would also mean there's no backstop which then in theory means there will be a hard border.
It'll be a 0-0 draw.
indeed - and im guessing to implement an effective hard boarder you need to start building the infrastructure etc at some point in the past
Our governments briefing to the press is worse than Woodwards.
They've had what feels like forever to progress the talks at pace and now because they're panicking at the shit storm they've created they're complaining that Barnier isn't available 24/7. No doubt the daily mailers will lap it up and blame the EU.
They've had what feels like forever to progress the talks at pace and now because they're panicking at the shit storm they've created they're complaining that Barnier isn't available 24/7. No doubt the daily mailers will lap it up and blame the EU.
But as the Uk are responsible for erecting the hard border because they are leaving the EU, they also can't be seen or admit to put or having to put any infrastructure in place because they will be seen to be responsible for breaking the GFA and thus they will do nothing.
Yes I saw that, because Barnier had Sunday afternoon off . Also Barnier's job, unlike Raab's is not just about Brexit.
Raab wants more attention paid by the EU to the chequers plan, someone ought to tell him it's rejected.
technically I think both sides are responsible for the implementation? - I believe there is an obligation on both sides to perform customs checks isnt there?
https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/
But yeah as they struggle for a deal till December? it will leave 3 months or so and as you say nobody wants to be seen to do anything as its admiting the talks cant work - and then in 3 months I'm sure it will be difficut / impossible to put anything in place (technology or sufficient infra to allow for checks and queues etc)
If one ignores the GFA and extra problems in Ireland in effect it should be the same as the UK/French border with infrastructure on both sides and have the same checks.
Presumably we would lose the right to fish there under no deal Brexit?
kind of - I mean there are a lot more potential crossing points as its a land boarder so I think you have to mannage it differently - but for sure on the main haulage routes you would expect there to need to be some infra of some kind - and that its self will probably have a planning consent period that means you couldnt even get permission to build it (let alone design and actually build it) in the time frame required - even if its all supder duper computer stuff - its still going to need stuff around it
It's not going to work. There are hundreds of different routes over the border with many roads actually crossing the border several times - all this would do is cause travel chaos on the main Belfast to Dublin motorway (on which millions of pounds have been spent from ROI and UK to get to a stage that a quick and easy route is available after years of awful infrastructure) and divert many people onto one of the many cross border roads that are everywhere in that area. Not only this but neither ROI nor Northern Ireland voted for BREXIT and neither country want it so I can't imagine there is a huge amount of motivation on either side to build this kind of infrastructure at all. There simply has to be an agreement for a joint custom area between the two areas - I can't see any other possible option.
It would seem logical ... I'm just not sure may could get that kind of deal through (brexit lobby and unionists) unless labour would back it but I doubt they would
They have no choice but to agree that deal - they can dance around it all they want (which they have for months) but there is no viable alternative.
I meant in a hypothetical situation.
In real life I agree, I dont see how a hard border can be put in place.
the "viable" alternative is to say the eu are being nasty and deliberately obstructing a deal and therefore we are leaving making ourselves a tax haven... slashing red tape and starting a trade war (with our good buddie don)... I think its a shit idea but I think its more likley than the conservatives getting that deal passed
Car crash interview if I ever saw one.
signs of a potential breakthrough... or a false dawn?
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/9794-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-reaction-barnier-comments
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/9794-gbp-to-eur-and-usd-reaction-barnier-comments
Another one.
Sounds exactly what he's been saying all along, the important part which is also what he's been saying all along is
"We respect Britain’s red lines scrupulously. In return, they must respect what we are," Barnier said. "Single market means single market, there is no single market a la carte."
Watching May or Corbyn give non-answers to simple questions is so infuriating. Have we ever had two main party leaders this useless?
Not at the same time, historic moment.
Why doesn't she just say yes ? I get why Corbyn has to be all grey about it but in May case she needs the former UKIP voters to stick with her party.
Indeed though ...
"the EU is preparing to offer a partnership with Britain such has never been with any third country."
Clearly no great detail about the partnership and of course it won't be full access to the single market but certainly some hope?
give it time... we might have Boris in the mix by the end of conference season
She's so scripted, it's unbelievable. Imagine having dinner with her?
I bet her idea of a nice dinner is boiled potatoes, boiled brisket, grey vegetables and the hearts of young poor kids.
I'm sure he said exactly the same thing some time ago, whether I can find it is another matter.
The UK will be undoubtedly be offered a partnership no other country outside the EU has but it will have conditions, which the UK then have to accept and I think we have a pretty good idea what they will be.
"the EU is preparing to offer a partnership with Britain such has never been with any third country."
Do the EFTA nations not count?
Do the EFTA nations not count?