Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
18th October is the EU meeting - which means that in reality lets say 1 week before there needs to be behind the scenes some basic agreement in order to draft and approve it in time for 18th
So thats 11th October roughly as a timeline for doing that
and we have the conservative conference running to the 3rd (which will likley either end in a lot of the EU is nasty and make any negations even more difficult or end in a leadership challenge / election that will kill dead any negotiations)
In short a no deal really must be about 99% certain now (especially with the additional hurdle of getting it through parliament)

So no more being calm that a last minute deal will happen?

Is the moment of?

latest
 
So no more being calm that a last minute deal will happen?

Is the moment of?

latest

I think a deal will happen... We might just have to crash out with no deal and a bit of panic before we sort one... But yeah I think no deal Unless article 50 is extended seems by far the most likley now (if a deal gets agreed last minute then probably they extend)... Depends if we have a nutter like mogg as pm by then
 
I think a deal will happen... We might just have to crash out with no deal and a bit of panic before we sort one... But yeah I think no deal Unless article 50 is extended seems by far the most likley now (if a deal gets agreed last minute then probably they extend)... Depends if we have a nutter like mogg as pm by then

I think I was discussing that with @Paul the Wolf (maybe someone else), if it was possible to extend the negotiating timeline and I recall that the only thing that could be extended is a transition period but a deal should be reached signed before the 29 of March?

Do you think is possible to extend 6 months- 1 year. the extension of article 50? I want the Brexit series to end I want season 2 to start
 
I think I was discussing that with @Paul the Wolf (maybe someone else), if it was possible to extend the negotiating timeline and I recall that the only thing that could be extended is a transition period but a deal should be reached signed before the 29 of March?

Do you think is possible to extend 6 months- 1 year. the extension of article 50? I want the Brexit series to end I want season 2 to start
My understanding (mainly what I'm told by civil servants in the treasury but not working on brexit) is yes with agreement from all parties article 50 can be extended... The October / November deadline comes from the time to put the legislation through all 27 parliament's so I think if let's say in January a deal was reached it would be possible at that point to extend the article 50 deadline in order to get the legistlation through (I don't think there is the political will on either side to negotiate further but I could see it for what would essentially be admin / practicalities as long as all of the exit terms were fully agreed)
 
My understanding (mainly what I'm told by civil servants in the treasury but not working on brexit) is yes with agreement from all parties article 50 can be extended... The October / November deadline comes from the time to put the legislation through all 27 parliament's so I think if let's say in January a deal was reached it would be possible at that point to extend the article 50 deadline in order to get the legistlation through (I don't think there is the political will on either side to negotiate further but I could see it for what would essentially be admin / practicalities as long as all of the exit terms were fully agreed)

So, you are saying that if a deal UK-EU is reached by January-February, could be extended for the approval for the 27. Sounds reasonable. Will have to wait 3 months for season 2 then. Thanks!
 
I think I was discussing that with @Paul the Wolf (maybe someone else), if it was possible to extend the negotiating timeline and I recall that the only thing that could be extended is a transition period but a deal should be reached signed before the 29 of March?

Do you think is possible to extend 6 months- 1 year. the extension of article 50? I want the Brexit series to end I want season 2 to start

Don't know if it was me I but don't see Article 50 extended at all. The EU have elections in May for a new parliament and all the rest. The only choice for the UK is to leave next March or stay but under certain conditions. As no deal looks likely there won't be a transition period either.

Anything that's going to be agreed has to be agreed in the next 6/7 weeks at the very outside.

Season 2 will start next March but it might not be a pretty sight if the UK don't get a deal.

The view from the UK seems to be that they hope the EU will bend some rules. My view is they have zero chance of that.
 
Don't know if it was me I but don't see Article 50 extended at all. The EU have elections in May for a new parliament and all the rest. The only choice for the UK is to leave next March or stay but under certain conditions. As no deal looks likely there won't be a transition period either.

Anything that's going to be agreed has to be agreed in the next 6/7 weeks at the very outside.

Season 2 will start next March but it might not be a pretty sight if the UK don't get a deal.

The view from the UK seems to be that they hope the EU will bend some rules. My view is they have zero chance of that.
I tend to agree that is most likley but I believe the mechanism exists to extend if required
 
I tend to agree that is most likley but I believe the mechanism exists to extend if required

Maybe the mechanism exists but I suspect the will does not. 2 years and 3 months since the referendum and really there has been little advance and what advance there has been the UK threaten not to stand by, like the bill and the backstop. Even citizens rights, they're not really agreed.

That's all there was to agree and really nothing is agreed, another 6 or 12 months of the same doesn't enthrall the EU I think but the UK can't have any seats in the EU parliament or any say so they will be leaving anyway. 2 years totally wasted.
 
So we will know if is no deal:

Pessimistic: mid-november
Optimistic: end of January

Just want thiss squable to end. Brexit fascinates me
 
Watch this without pulling your hair out. We are mugs for putting up with these guys.

 
18th October is the EU meeting - which means that in reality lets say 1 week before there needs to be behind the scenes some basic agreement in order to draft and approve it in time for 18th
So thats 11th October roughly as a timeline for doing that
and we have the conservative conference running to the 3rd (which will likley either end in a lot of the EU is nasty and make any negations even more difficult or end in a leadership challenge / election that will kill dead any negotiations)
In short a no deal really must be about 99% certain now (especially with the additional hurdle of getting it through parliament)
Yeah I'd say so too. Tbh I get the feeling this was the EU's intention from day one.
 
Ah yes, the blasted EU with their consistent, clearly defined approach are to blame.
Not saying it's the EU's fault. Not at all. It's not in their interests for Britain to emerge with a good deal. Why should they make things easy for the UK?
 
2nd part of the 1st paragraph was enuff for me to stop.

Why? They are a very balanced/centre think tank organisation. They have a record of being critical of the EU even if they are essentialy pro EU.
 
Not saying it's the EU's fault. Not at all. It's not in their interests for Britain to emerge with a good deal. Why should they make things easy for the UK?

Even then, the EU has worked with a divided, incompetent, and dishonest UK negotiating team throughout the process. There are EU red lines, of course there are, but they've been obvious since day one and the options the UK have have been laid out. It's the UK's unwillingness to commit to an avenue (for fear of alienating one portion of their coalition of disparate Brexiteers ideologies) that has dragged us here.

The unfortunate fact that Brexiteers can't or won't consider is the reason the EU aren't offering us a 'better deal' is because the best deal is the one we currently have.
 
Even then, the EU has worked with a divided, incompetent, and dishonest UK negotiating team throughout the process. There are EU red lines, of course there are, but they've been obvious since day one and the options the UK have have been laid out. It's the UK's unwillingness to commit to an avenue (for fear of alienating one portion of their coalition of disparate Brexiteers ideologies) that has dragged us here.

The unfortunate fact that Brexiteers can't or won't consider is the reason the EU aren't offering us a 'better deal' is because the best deal is the one we currently have.
That's the problem right there.

The EU has a very clear idea of what they want from Brexit. They want us to either reverse the process or at least deter any repeat from other EU member-states. And they want to appropriate key parts of our economy, notably financial services.

The UK, in contrast, has no idea what it wants. The preferred model of separation should have been clarified before the vote in 2016. But instead the Brexiteers have pushed us off the cliff without even knowing what their Brexit model would look like. It's also come at a time when the two major parties are as intellectually mediocre as they've probably ever been.
 
It's a vanity project to garner nationalism when a country has nothing to offer.
No surprise the last time it happened, the country was struggling badly.
 
  • May implied that she did not fully understand the EU objections to Chequers. She said:
The point is very simple. Until we know what their [the EU’s] problem is - that’s what we need; we need to know what their concerns are.

This is the PM of the UK who doesn't understand what the problem is?
Has she the brain the size of a pea?

The real problem is she has no clue whatsoever as to what to do next, so she is desperately clinging on to this ridiculous Chequers plan.
 
Why? They are a very balanced/centre think tank organisation. They have a record of being critical of the EU even if they are essentialy pro EU.
Because countries like NL have a large budget surplus after the austerity program and the UK dont. So when they write that the program was nearing its end in the uk i dont believe it so i stopped.
 
Jeremy Hunt at the Tory Party conference:

"At the moment you seem to think the way to keep the club together is to punish a member who leaves."

No, Jeremy, the best way is to give into their every whim and reward them for leaving the club. What a moron.


"And let me say one more thing about these talks.
Never mistake British politeness for British weakness.
Because if you put a country like Britain in a corner, we don’t crumble. We fight."


Throw your toys out of the pram or start WW3?
 
Jeremy Hunt at the Tory Party conference:

"At the moment you seem to think the way to keep the club together is to punish a member who leaves."

No, Jeremy, the best way is to give into their every whim and reward them for leaving the club. What a moron.


"And let me say one more thing about these talks.
Never mistake British politeness for British weakness.
Because if you put a country like Britain in a corner, we don’t crumble. We fight."


Throw your toys out of the pram or start WW3?

It seems likening the EU to a prison and the soviet union is a clear example of British politeness
 
There are EU red lines, of course there are, but they've been obvious since day one and the options the UK have have been laid out.
Not really, they said there could be no trade discussions until after the UK left, yet there they are reviewing uk's proposed future trade plans before UK leave, the fact that they've dismissed them in neither here nor there. If she came in with something they liked they'd agree before the leave date. red lines, Shread lines.
 
Not really, they said there could be no trade discussions until after the UK left, yet there they are reviewing uk's proposed future trade plans before UK leave, the fact that they've dismissed them in neither here nor there. If she came in with something they liked they'd agree before the leave date. red lines, Shread lines.

If the UK had agreed the Irish border problem, citizens rights and the bill within a few months as they should have, the trade talks would be well under way already but May's plan is still trying to cherry pick over 2 years down the line. The EU said they want to look at the basis of a future relationship and try to salvage something from Chequers to proceed with that. They've got very little to work with from the UK.
 
If the UK had agreed the Irish border problem, citizens rights and the bill within a few months as they should have, the trade talks would be well under way already but May's plan is still trying to cherry pick over 2 years down the line. The EU said they want to look at the basis of a future relationship and try to salvage something from Chequers to proceed with that. They've got very little to work with from the UK.
My point stands.