Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Well no it wasn't, and still isn't. We didn't know and still don't know whether we will have a customs union, a trade agreement with the EU, or whether we will be able to make trade agreements elsewhere, or what we do about the Irish border, or what freedom of movement there will be, or what our new immigration policy will be. That's just a start, I'm sure people could add loads more. If there is to be a second referendum asking for support of a May deal at least a lot of that would become known, what we don't want is for Remain to be the unknown, we need to know the details of that too. And sorry, I'm not being personal but IMO just doesn't count.

Yes it was, and yes it is. And it was all rejected as scaremongering. People cannot pretend to be ignorant of it now because they weren't listening at the time when all the experts who knew more about this than anyone else due to it being their entire fecking career, told us what was going to happen, which is actually common fecking sense and they were denounced with Gove saying we're tired of people who know the answers to the questions we don't know about, giving us the answers that we need.
 
Actually is not. Would be an advantage to remain as you divide leave in 2. Lets say it remains the same as 2 years ago

- Remain 48%
- Mays plan (lets say) 15%
- Hard Brexit (lets say) 37%

Remain wins even if Leave would be majority

I love this idea. It's basically the remain by default approach!
 
No I disagree. If the UK leaves the EU they leave the CU and SM and become a third country. If they leave the CU they can make their own deals. If they leave the CU and SM the Irish border has to be hard. It was true in 2016 and is still true now. What the UK is trying to do is still have the benefits and no responsibility. The UK's immigration policy towards the EU will depend on whether they leave or not. 4 freedoms.
A trade deal will be as a third country like Canada or Japan if they leave, and you won't know what it is for years.

The fact that people have only just starting to realise what the consequences is the real problem. It's like Raab just realising the most important trade route is Dover/Calais, this was pointed out three years ago and ignored and he's supposed to be the one in charge. The Irish problem was pointed out three years ago and ignored. Everything was but no-one was listening.
I agree much of that is probable, there was a time when I was one of the few on here believing a hard brexit to be the most likely outcome, with yourself of course, but I've only ever said most likely, not certain.

As it stands now I still don't know for sure whether May will agree a deal, much less what that deal will be, or whether parliament will accept it anyway, and neither do you.

So I'll go back to my main point of the day, if Remainers want a second referendum they need to plan what it will be and how they are going to win it, and I don't hear any plan at all, only 'you were all stupid in the first one' which, whether true or not, isn't going to win anything.
 
I agree much of that is probable, there was a time when I was one of the few on here believing a hard brexit to be the most likely outcome, with yourself of course, but I've only ever said most likely, not certain.

As it stands now I still don't know for sure whether May will agree a deal, much less what that deal will be, or whether parliament will accept it anyway, and neither do you.

So I'll go back to my main point of the day, if Remainers want a second referendum they need to plan what it will be and how they are going to win it, and I don't hear any plan at all, only 'you were all stupid in the first one' which, whether true or not, isn't going to win anything.

But what bewilders me is what type of deal are people expecting May to have, from both Leavers and Remainers pov.
Chequers is dead, said that 4 months ago but somehow it sort of lingers. She's not coming back with a trade deal.

It seems that the major points like the citizens rights and the settlement have been agreed. All that is left is the Irish border, it's not going to be resolved if the UK leave so the backstop comes into place until magic solutions appear which means the Uk will be in transition indefinitely. I doubt this is going to get through parliament and it's leaving everything in limbo, businesses, people's lives etc. This is really not solving anything. The Uk will be tied to the EU , still paying and having no vote until the Irish problem is solved. Then what - they have the hard Brexit? Or do they have it in March?

There's not going to be a trade deal before the UK leave just a general idea of what it will look like.

The plan will no doubt be the basically same as now but presented a bit better, what else is Remain going to say? - I just don't see a second referendum happening or even the point of having one. The government itself has to decide before March 29.
 
On the other hand another Johnson has resigned, and if they don't like it then maybe it will be a good deal after all? Nah, only joking, I don't think whatever happens will be good exactly, we just have to hope for the least bad.
 
At the core it is as in an ideal world shouldn't be borders. But I am not naive

Also, you are wrong in the last part. Now as a resident I have exactly the same rules as a canadian born except voting and in 1 year and half I will be able even to do that

But in essence, is not comparable in the sense that if we consider all Europeans with the same rights, you shouldn't ask for different rules. That is why asking control from other countries of the EU, when had been established that shouldn't be like that, is xenophobic.

As I have been saying, there are several levels of xenophobia. You can even have them with your neighbouring town. I am xenophobic to a certain degree, I am tribal like many other people. The problem is when xenophobia reach high levels of intolerance, and Brexit is in my opinion a result of this

Apologies, been working in Berlin.

So who gets to decide what is xenophobic? You? Isnt it stupid to complain about people being xenophobic and yet attach yourself to the EU who puts up borders and stops people coming in?

Where is the limit for you? In an ideal world, where are your borders? Or don’t you have any?

Because the EU citizens have to abide by the conditions of FoM otherwise the UK can remove them. The same as citizens from outside the EU, they have to comply by the rules. Now because the rules may be different is not the fault of the EU, they are imposed by the UK.
Typical example of utter ignorance was the woman in that C4 programme called ******* who said that the minimum wage for EU citizens is lower than that of non-EU citizens - well hello, that is because the UK set a higher wage requirement.

The criteria for EU citizens is that they are able to support themselves and are not a burden on the state which should also be the case for non-EU citizens, you can't really do a lot about UK citizens who are burden on the state.
Another clue, the only country in the EU that has "concerns" about FoM is the UK.

I have no idea what you’re talking about anymore I’m afraid. You’ve lost the plot. Last week barca84 asked you to clarify your “Brits don’t want foreigners in the UK” position, and you spent 48 hours shifting the goalposts and trying to argue with him. Your best argument was how you walked into a pub in the UK, and it went quiet.

Maybe you should make a thread or post about the positives of the future of the EU. What great things do you see for the future of the EU?

If we have another referendum it could help.
 
Apologies, been working in Berlin.

So who gets to decide what is xenophobic? You? Isnt it stupid to complain about people being xenophobic and yet attach yourself to the EU who puts up borders and stops people coming in?

Where is the limit for you? In an ideal world, where are your borders? Or don’t you have any?



I have no idea what you’re talking about anymore I’m afraid. You’ve lost the plot. Last week barca84 asked you to clarify your “Brits don’t want foreigners in the UK” position, and you spent 48 hours shifting the goalposts and trying to argue with him. Your best argument was how you walked into a pub in the UK, and it went quiet.

Maybe you should make a thread or post about the positives of the future of the EU. What great things do you see for the future of the EU?

If we have another referendum it could help.

Yeah OK, if you say so, you sure you went to Berlin and not the Sahara. Sand gets everywhere.
 
Apologies, been working in Berlin.

So who gets to decide what is xenophobic? You? Isnt it stupid to complain about people being xenophobic and yet attach yourself to the EU who puts up borders and stops people coming in?

Where is the limit for you? In an ideal world, where are your borders? Or don’t you have any?

All those questions are fair questions. And honestly I do not have a simple question. Is a struggle with my morals, my selfishness, what I have been told is "good" or "bad"

Answering the last part, for me is clear that not restricting borders with governments and companies taking advantage of the less fortunate, would be madness. Without a decent minimum salary, without perusing who is employing illegal immigrants (for starters), capitalistic western societies would go down the drain pretty quickly without restrictions.

About your first part, About if is stupid complaining being xenophobic? I do think is not when the xenophobic reasons are stupid. IMO, Economically speaking, being in the EU, is more positive than negative. Immigration brought prosperity both ways (receiving and being able to enjoy mobility) in rich countries (maybe not so to the poor ones that had been drained of their best and/or younger workforce)

UK for starters have very good professionals in healthcare that didn't have to pay their education, basically other countries paid for free for their education. And they probably pay them less at the beginning and for sure less that if UK would have job market constrains, struggling to get just UK doctors and nurses. And that is just an example.

Also, you have a young workforce that you can have a fair debate about jobs that they take or lower salaries (that would be solved having a decent minimum salary and punish companies that employ illegal immigrants), but they consum (generating jobs), pay taxes (generating jobs) and they barely use any public services (there are exceptions of course) while you send old farts to enjoy spanish services in la costa del sol, consuming, yes but not paying taxes and using A LOT of the services. Basically widening the pyramid at the base and shrinking it on the top.

Is clear what is better. Having 100.000 spanish young waiters working in UK or 200.000 old farts consuming NHS spanish services (obviously cliches and made up numbers, but there are more brits in spain than spaniards in UK)

And that, again, is just an example.

Xenophobs might not like foreigners for whatever reasons, maybe right, maybe racism, maybe they fecked your wife, maybe they been lied. But economically speaking, IMO (again IMO) is stupid to get out

IN conclusion. Putting borders between countries of unequal economic level, I might understand some reasons, there are as well solutions. But between the EU? I think is stupid xenophobia, so no, I don't find stupid complaining.

Then we can discuss another debate that might be ideologic. That people want to quit for other reasons. There, I can't debate as is a much difficult debate and the differences are of another spectrum and I might even agree as I am not a big fan of the EU and several of their policies
 
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To be honest if the EU did push us down joining the Euro i think I'd vote leave :nervous:

I don't think they would though, it'll be a loss of the rebate as a warning to anyone else thinking of leaving and that would be fair.

How much would that cost?
 
There will be a deal, of that i am sure.

Sure, but a shit one as will be out the EU, but follow every rule and have no say about them. The funny thing is the Brextreemists will have made the UKs relationship with the EU look like the one they said we had before the referendum.
 
How much would that cost?

Well Boris will need a bigger bus! Our rebate is usually 4-5billion.

The EU are already trying to use Brexit to end rebates and discounts to other countries which hasn't gone down well. No way do we get the same favourable terms under remain.
 
It's not really a surprise at this point, he doesn't really care about being in the EU.
 
Sigh. He's burning all his support doing this. Frustrating as feck.
What annoys me is that he won't come out honestly with his own opinion, he just hides behind the 'we've had a vote' line. When he's so determined to hide his true stance on the most important issue for generations how can we believe him on anything else?
 
Do you have a source for this? Not doubting it, but would be interesting to see by how it's down.
I've seen two graphs on twitter in recent weeks showing it. One was a yougov poll. Will look for it.
 
I've seen two graphs on twitter in recent weeks showing it. One was a yougov poll. Will look for it.
Thanks. A friend whose mum knows him still thinks he's the best thing since sliced bread. His stance (or lack thereof) on Brexit might help convince them otherwise.
 
@Jippy spent the last five minutes combing through twitter. Only found one of them.

That's great, thanks and cheers @Ubik and @Sweet Square.
Hmm, interesting. So basically the youth still hate the Tories, but the cult of Corbyn is dying down.

feck me though, how in the hell is May's stock risining in any cohort?
 
That's great, thanks and cheers @Ubik and @Sweet Square.
Hmm, interesting. So basically the youth still hate the Tories, but the cult of Corbyn is dying down.

feck me though, how in the hell is May's stock risining in any cohort?
I guess because some people look at the alternatives on offer and become a gibbering wreck.
 
Key word is intention - younger voters don't always turn up on the day unless they are motivated to do so- which is why his personal ratings should be worrying for Labour.
Well yeah its a poll not a election result.
 
Survation was one of the only polls that got close to the actual result in the last general election to be fair.
 
According to the BBC a decision will be made tomorrow whether UK citizens will need a visa to visit Europe in the event of No Deal.