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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Can anyone tell me the last time there was a confidence vote on a British PM?
 
Adisa said:
Can anyone tell me the last time there was a confidence vote on a British PM?
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1979 was the last time there was one in the commons

I think Thatcher was the last time she was knifed by her own party whilst still in power

edit - actually didnt john redwood trigger one against John Major as well (which he lost )

so thatcher probably the last successful one
 
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sun_tzu said:
what are the odds on her surviving the vote though... I have to say i think she has a pretty decent chance

the difficulty is getting the deal through parliment - though again if she makes that a free vote people are saying she could survive a defeat there...

as crazy as it seems the maybot might just manage to survive (her deal clearly wont)
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She will survive a confidence vote. With ease.
 
I have heard more than 1 MP, apart from May, saying, this deal, no deal or no Brexit.

Is the no Brexit thing a threat to the pro-Brexit idiots, to say that, either you accept this compromise, or we'll cancel the whole thing?
 
sun_tzu said:
1979 was the last time there was one in the commons

I think Thatcher was the last time she was knifed by her own party whilst still in power

edit - actually didnt john redwood trigger one against John Major as well (which he lost )

so thatcher probably the last successful one
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Major called one himself over Maastricht in 1993 - and won. Hence the treaty being passed.
 
sun_tzu said:
1979 was the last time there was one in the commons

I think Thatcher was the last time she was knifed by her own party whilst still in power

edit - actually didnt john redwood trigger one against John Major as well (which he lost )

so thatcher probably the last successful one
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Thanks.
 
Sassy Colin said:
I have heard more than 1 MP, apart from May, saying, this deal, no deal or no Brexit.

Is the no Brexit thing a threat to the pro-Brexit idiots, to say that, either you accept this compromise, or we'll cancel the whole thing?
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Yep, it's just that.
 
Adisa said:
Yep, it's just that.
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problem is I dont think abybodt believes her
if its not her deal then its clearly going to be no deal
she isnt going to ask the EU to extend A50 and call a referendum herself
no new leader of the conservative party will do that either
they will switch straight to no deal and blaming the EU
I might be wrong but also there are rumours that if she makes the vote a free vote in the commons then technically the government isn't defeated and she can carry n without having a commons confidence vote? (not certain under the fixed parliament act but it would seem to pave the way to a no deal with May in charge?)
 
Honest John said:
Major called one himself over Maastricht in 1993 - and won. Hence the treaty being passed.
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So many problems all these years! Deal or no-deal, I think the rest of the EU should have a huge 7-day party after the UK finally exits! Booze, fireworks, music, everything! It's like your mother in law gets sick, stays in your home, complains about you all the time, then her health is fine but she doesn't go away, she stays on, and keeps complaining! When you are finally able to get rid of her, you want to party! I know, I have been through that!
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Are they as advantageous as the SM, and do they require the 4 Freedoms?
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Some do, and some don't. Example is the Canada deal which negotiated passport free travel for most EU countries. There's a lot that can be done, especially considering how closely knit we already are.

I'm quite frankly confused how May's government has been there since 2016 and this deal is the best they could come up with it.
 
sun_tzu said:
problem is I dont think abybodt believes her
if its not her deal then its clearly going to be no deal
she isnt going to ask the EU to extend A50 and call a referendum herself
no new leader of the conservative party will do that either
they will switch straight to no deal and blaming the EU
I might be wrong but also there are rumours that if she makes the vote a free vote in the commons then technically the government isn't defeated and she can carry n without having a commons confidence vote? (not certain under the fixed parliament act but it would seem to pave the way to a no deal with May in charge?)
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I think what she means is that, I'm not sure any government can survive a no deal brexit.
At some point when it becomes clear that we are crashing out, she has no choice but to either call an election or a new referendum.
And this is the risk the "people'svote' crew are calculating and why they will never vote for May's deal.
 
Adisa said:
I think what she means is that, I'm not sure any government can survive a no deal brexit.
At some point when it becomes clear that we are crashing out, she has no choice but to either call an election or a new referendum.
And this is the risk the "people'svote' crew are calculating and why they will never vote for May's deal.
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why?
I think it is more likely they say the EU are being nasty and wont negotiate - its imperative we prepare for a no deal brexit and we cant be distracted by elections and second votes
Probably the DUP get back on board with that if its a hard brexit and support her in the commons
The ERG etc would get on board with that and back her
Just depends if the ken clarke wing of the party would sooner back her or finish her off... I think they would back her
If the supply and confidence deal holds with the DUP then in theory they have the fixed term of parliament with no election of referendum
she just has to avoid an actual defeat over the bill - and the only way to do that I think is make it a free vote
Id never underestimate the flexibility of a politicians positions when it comes to clinging on to power
 
Andrew~ said:
Some do, and some don't. Example is the Canada deal which negotiated passport free travel for most EU countries. There's a lot that can be done, especially considering how closely knit we already are.

I'm quite frankly confused how May's government has been there since 2016 and this deal is the best they could come up with it.
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Can they work here?
 
sun_tzu said:
why?
I think it is more likely they say the EU are being nasty and wont negotiate - its imperative we prepare for a no deal brexit and we cant be distracted by elections and second votes
Probably the DUP get back on board with that if its a hard brexit and support her in the commons
The ERG etc would get on board with that and back her
Just depends if the ken clarke wing of the party would sooner back her or finish her off... I think they would back her
If the supply and confidence deal holds with the DUP then in theory they have the fixed term of parliament with no election of referendum
she just has to avoid an actual defeat over the bill - and the only way to do that I think is make it a free vote
Id never underestimate the flexibility of a politicians positions when it comes to clinging on to power
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I think even the Tories would struggle to spin their way out of the chaos of a no deal brexit.
The EU have negotiated, we have a deal. It's us, rejecting it. I just can't see how a government survives the chaos. The government can bluster as much as they want, we are already too late to start getting ready for No deal.
 
Smart move by Gove. There is zero possibility of her losing a confidence vote at this stage.
 
Sassy Colin said:
I have heard more than 1 MP, apart from May, saying, this deal, no deal or no Brexit.

Is the no Brexit thing a threat to the pro-Brexit idiots, to say that, either you accept this compromise, or we'll cancel the whole thing?
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As stupid idle threat is all it was, and she then undermined it yesterday in her press conference q and a by saying we would leave the EU march next year when questioned about the very wording of her Thursday statement.

I'd love to see this undone, but she is adamant about leaving, she's just massively rubbish at posturing for effect.
 
Raees said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...deal-jeremy-corbyn-negotiations-a8550186.html

Am I right in assuming even if she was immune from the Tories, Labour can still force a general vote of no confidence in the House of Commons and try to force an election if they win via a simple majority?
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My understanding is this
If the Bill is defeated then yes labour can call a motion of no confidence
(I am not clear though if May allows a free vote on the deal and its voted down then Im not sure that counts as a government defeat?)

If they are successful in the no confidence motion then there is a 14 day period in which the conservatives can try to form a new government (eg a deal with the libs - a new supply and confidence deal with the DUP for example - perhaps based on a change of leadership)

If at the end of those 14 days they cant command a majority then yes at that point we get an election

but to my mind the free vote might be a way out of that process starting
and even if it happens they have 2 weeks to strike a deal (which if they say right now its no deal and may will go I think the DUP would probably get back on board)
So the odds of an election Id say are still pretty slim

I think logically going with a free vote is politically the inteligent move - if labour dont correspond they are painted as playing party politics - if its a free vote then her best chance of getting it through is labour votes rather than hardline conservative

overall it probably still fails to pass but as I say it could be painted as not a government defeat (not sure aboyt the legalities of that) - and it might avoid the confidence vote in the commons ...
 
Andrew~ said:
Not sure. EU citizens get 'visa free travel' to Canada but I'd err on the side of no. There are some special arrangements for investors but that's it.
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Ok, so how to reconcile that then with NI? Any arrangement is likely to enrage either Brexiteers, DUP (who represent the opposite of what NI actually voted for) or remainers. How do you reconcile those who want nothing to do with the EU anymore with the thousands of people who cross the border to work every day currently? Border in the sea? DUP collapse the government. Border on the land? An international peace treaty is violated.
 
Barca84 said:
We have a process for this - they're called general elections where we get to choose who makes the decisions.

This current batch of political incompetents will meet their fate, and replacements installed, at the UK polling station.
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Classical Mechanic said:
An army where each 27 nation member states would have a veto on possible military action would work as a cohesive unit how?

Or lets say that the wars that would be fought are decided by a voting majority of the member states. You then have the probability that nation states would have to send their troops to die in wars against their subjects political will. How would that be good for the political cohesion of the EU?

I don't see how ceding more power to a larger, more confusing and more opaque political entity has democratic merit?
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I wasn't being entirely serious although I'd be quite happy for the EU to adopt the role of a nation with countries adopting more of a state role - more like the Australian model than the US one.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Ok, so how to reconcile that then with NI? Any arrangement is likely to enrage either Brexiteers, DUP (who represent the opposite of what NI actually voted for) or remainers. How do you reconcile those who want nothing to do with the EU anymore with the thousands of people who cross the border to work every day currently? Border in the sea? DUP collapse the government. Border on the land? An international peace treaty is violated.
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I think there is a bi latteral agreement between Iraland and the UK that superceeds that - so basically we keep free movement with Ireland based on a bi latteral treaty but not with the EU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area
common travel area since 1922

presumably its the irish responsibility to stop no uk / irish people going to UK (and the same on the UK to stop people going to ireland - Im not sure how this happens without boarder checks - I think nobody thought it would actually come to this)
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Ok, so how to reconcile that then with NI? Any arrangement is likely to enrage either Brexiteers, DUP (who represent the opposite of what NI actually voted for) or remainers. How do you reconcile those who want nothing to do with the EU anymore with the thousands of people who cross the border to work every day currently? Border in the sea? DUP collapse the government. Border on the land? An international peace treaty is violated.
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sun_tzu said:
I think there is a bi latteral agreement between Iraland and the UK that superceeds that - so basically we keep free movement with Ireland based on a bi latteral treaty but not with the EU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area
common travel area since 1922

presumably its the irish responsibility to stop no uk / irish people going to UK (and the same on the UK to stop people going to ireland - Im not sure how this happens without boarder checks - I think nobody thought it would actually come to this)
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This is part of the solution. I think the idea that there can't be a special arrangement for Ireland and NI is a ridiculous lack of imagination. If preventing violence really is that high a priority for the EU, they can afford to talk in good faith.
 
Andrew~ said:
This is part of the solution. I think the idea that there can't be a special arrangement for Ireland and NI is a ridiculous lack of imagination. If preventing violence really is that high a priority for the EU, they can afford to talk in good faith.
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As I said before, I'm all ears. It's not just Ireland and NI, by the way - we're on the EU team and NI is on the UK team.
 
sun_tzu said:
My understanding is this
If the Bill is defeated then yes labour can call a motion of no confidence
(I am not clear though if May allows a free vote on the deal and its voted down then Im not sure that counts as a government defeat?)

If they are successful in the no confidence motion then there is a 14 day period in which the conservatives can try to form a new government (eg a deal with the libs - a new supply and confidence deal with the DUP for example - perhaps based on a change of leadership)

If at the end of those 14 days they cant command a majority then yes at that point we get an election

but to my mind the free vote might be a way out of that process starting
and even if it happens they have 2 weeks to strike a deal (which if they say right now its no deal and may will go I think the DUP would probably get back on board)
So the odds of an election Id say are still pretty slim

I think logically going with a free vote is politically the inteligent move - if labour dont correspond they are painted as playing party politics - if its a free vote then her best chance of getting it through is labour votes rather than hardline conservative

overall it probably still fails to pass but as I say it could be painted as not a government defeat (not sure aboyt the legalities of that) - and it might avoid the confidence vote in the commons ...
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Well there's legalities and then the convention, i can't see how they can avoid the convention of passing to a no confidence vote over such a critical matter by using the PR spin of a free vote.

This whole thing is going to cause such public anger if they worm their way out of it.
 
So there are still some people who thought that we would be getting a better deal from the collective member states than those member states themselves?

This is why I have absolutely no time for the "don't call them stupid" narrative. People need to stop trying to be virtuously reasonable in matters like this and call it as it is. "It's not their fault they were ignorant or mislead or xenophobic or insert excuse here".

The "best deal" is a bad deal and a worse deal than we already have/had and then levels of even worse deals on that spectrum. There is no argument aside from those who will say "not all leavers are x,y,z". Which is entirely irrelevant in the end because all leavers are leavers and they chose to be leavers for any number of reasons ranging from the incorrect to the foolish.

But no let us focus on making sure we have a "nice discussion" because that is what matters most here.
 
EyeInTheSky said:
So there are still some people who thought that we would be getting a better deal from the collective member states than those member states themselves?

This is why I have absolutely no time for the "don't call them stupid" narrative. People need to stop trying to be virtuously reasonable in matters like this and call it as it is. "It's not their fault they were ignorant or mislead or xenophobic or insert excuse here".

The "best deal" is a bad deal and a worse deal than we already have/had and then levels of even worse deals on that spectrum. There is no argument aside from those who will say "not all leavers are x,y,z". Which is entirely irrelevant in the end because all leavers are leavers and they chose to be leavers for any number of reasons ranging from the incorrect to the foolish.

But no let us focus on making sure we have a "nice discussion" because that is what matters most here.
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Would you trust the people who voted us into this mess to vote in a general election? Just think the country is now going to stumble from one disaster to another.
 
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