Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Greece leaving the EU was never on the agenda.

The comment I replied to was when you said 'don't kid yourself' to the suggestion that Ireland leaving the EU if they refused to give into their demands wouldn't be bad for the EU. Clearly if the EU start kicking out countries who don't want to merge into one nation state then that isn't going to be perceived as a good thing at a time when the EU are focused on appearing united.
 
The comment I replied to was when you said 'don't kid yourself' to the suggestion that Ireland leaving the EU if they refused to give into their demands wouldn't be bad for the EU. Clearly if the EU start kicking out countries who don't want to merge into one nation state then that isn't going to be perceived as a good thing at a time when the EU are focused on appearing united.

EU doesn't kick out countries.

If countries want to leave they are free to do so. Be prepared to accept the consequences.

But leaving the EU is a bit like a nation deciding to leave the internet. I mean. . . It can be done but it's a pretty stupid thing to do.
 
EU doesn't kick out countries.

If countries want to leave they are free to do so. Be prepared to accept the consequences.

But leaving the EU is a bit like a nation deciding to leave the internet. I mean. . . It can be done but it's a pretty stupid thing to do.

Indeed. So if several EU member states don't want the EU to become one sovereign entity, as is currently the case, it won't happen.
 
You are only correct if you think that it would be an amendment of the current treaties while I'm suggesting that it would be a new treaty which means that countries would have two options, join or opt-out.

Not in reference to an EU army, which is the particular part of EU integration that I have issue with, based upon any of the EU's own documents I have read (providing a fullfact link here as they have linked to the primary sources, rather than for their explaination of them: https://fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/ ), but I'd happily be corrected if you can point me to where you have read otherwise.
 
I would think the rest of the world is looking on in disbelief at what's going on in the UK. The few programmes we have on the subject have all the same theme. They discuss it rationably and sensibly and although they recognise there are problems with the EU, the sense is that the UK are providing the best advert there is for being part of the EU.
Like most Brexiters seem to think the EU will break up without them, it is actually having the opposite effect and reinforcing it.
Yeah, it would seem so:
‘It doesn’t make sense’: Europe puzzled by UK Brexit meltdown
 
Indeed. So if several EU member states don't want the EU to become one sovereign entity, as is currently the case, it won't happen.

They can choose to leave if the majority wish to form a sovereign state.
 
They can choose to leave if the majority wish to form a sovereign state.
Would they have to trigger article 50 and have 2 years to figure it all out ... Giving up all their existing trade agreements or having to agree to remain in a customs union...

Just saying it might not be entirely straight forward
 
Would they have to trigger article 50 and have 2 years to figure it all out ... Giving up all their existing trade agreements or having to agree to remain in a customs union...

Just saying it might not be entirely straight forward

Otherwise known as "doing a brexit".
 
They can choose to leave if the majority wish to form a sovereign state.

They can. But it's fairly obvious that at a time when they want to appear united, the EU won't push for being a single sovereign entity if multiple states don't want it to happen and intend to leave as a result.
 
In the end this is where brexit is headed I'd say:

Voted down in UK parliament, then many politicians (some former brexit supporters) will campaign for a second referendum (around May/June), UK asks for an extension to article 50 to accommodate a second referendum, UK then votes to remain. International humiliation for the UK.

The only way brexit can now happen is if May's deal passes.

Some might say May planned this all along. :)
 
Not in reference to an EU army, which is the particular part of EU integration that I have issue with, based upon any of the EU's own documents I have read (providing a fullfact link here as they have linked to the primary sources, rather than for their explaination of them: https://fullfact.org/europe/hunt-eu-army/ ), but I'd happily be corrected if you can point me to where you have read otherwise.

I thought that you were talking about a federation like the posters you quoted. And fullfact are actually supporting my point, this isn't a EU subject it's a national government subject which is why it would be based on a new treaty between member states and not an amendment of a current treaty. Also PESCO is the perfect example of how an agreement on CFSP can be taken without unanimity, the member states simply do it between themselves, it only engages the countries that want to be part of it, that's why Denmark and Malta opted out.
 
EU countries were given their own choice to join the Euro and EVERY EU country is obliged to join the Euro at some point in the future.

Put down the Torygraph (and other related anti-EU propaganda). The Euro has been one of the great success stories of the European project. It has survived the 2008 economic crash and it just happens to be the case that those who are "opposed" happen to be in countries which flagrantly borrowed and spent beyond their means in the years leading up to 2008. All the talk was of Greece leaving the Euro. The EU was prepared to cut them loose, allowing the drachma to return, and giving the Greeks a chance to rejoin in the future. . . . The Greeks, under Syriza, were having none of it.



Eastern bloc countries are banging on the EU door to become members.

As regard merging states not going to happen?
It has already happened economically.
Politics comes next.
For Germany sure, but way less so for the Mediterranean states who have suffered at various points in the cycle because they can't set their own interest rates.
 


I image France is going to very different in a few years time, so might want to put the whole army shtick on hold.
 


I image France is going to very different in a few years time, so might want to put the whole army shtick on hold.


I wouldn't bet on that, the opposition is even worse at this moment out of the high profile politicians only the prime minister is holding himself in a respectable position and they have basically the same philosophy.
 
They can. But it's fairly obvious that at a time when they want to appear united, the EU won't push for being a single sovereign entity if multiple states don't want it to happen and intend to leave as a result.

Surely the logical route would be just to continue the multi-lane approach where the commited core move faster and try and set an example that others then want to follow.
 
Dominic Raab feels bullied. Why is everyone so mean to brexiteers :confused:.

Crybabies, the lot of them.
 
So I see Norwegian culture is still be hide the times then. It's a gameshow where a man in his late 60's pretends to talk to someone on a telephone for a hour.

Norway stopped airing the show in 2007.
In France it was called Take it or Leave It (translated) but stopped in 2015.

The current EU offer is Take it or Leave It.:)
 
Might be interesting to have a poll or a series of questions (not sure who can do that) to see what the consensus is regarding the likley outcomes

Will Mays deal go through?
Will may be gone by Xmas?
Will A50 be extended?
Will there be a ge before 29th march?
Will there be a second referendum?
 
Might be interesting to have a poll or a series of questions (not sure who can do that) to see what the consensus is regarding the likley outcomes

Will Mays deal go through?
Will may be gone by Xmas?
Will A50 be extended?
Will there be a ge before 29th march?
Will there be a second referendum?

No to all.
But the most likely to be yes is May's deal going through, however strange that may seem as not convinced the politicians have the backbone to vote it down.

May gone by Xmas and extending A50 - no chance. No-one's got the guts to replace her and the EU are not going to wait for the UK to make up its mind.
GE - doubt they will call one and not enough time.
2nd referendum, who's going to grant that? Again not enough time - if Brexit is to be stopped the government have to do it.
 
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Might be interesting to have a poll or a series of questions (not sure who can do that) to see what the consensus is regarding the likley outcomes

Will Mays deal go through?
Will may be gone by Xmas?
Will A50 be extended?
Will there be a ge before 29th march?
Will there be a second referendum?
A poll on here?
I think all will just be guessing, but I would say "no" to all of those.
 
Might be interesting to have a poll or a series of questions (not sure who can do that) to see what the consensus is regarding the likley outcomes

Will Mays deal go through?
Will may be gone by Xmas?
Will A50 be extended?
Will there be a ge before 29th march?
Will there be a second referendum?

Taking them in turn -

No
No
Depends on questions 4 & 5
No
Possibly
 
In Wales it was called Do What You Want - I Don't Give A F*ck.
 
So I see Norwegian culture is still be hide the times then. It's a gameshow where a man in his late 60's pretends to talk to someone on a telephone for a hour.
Thanks.
We do have deal or no deal (or we had, people got tired of it years ago I believe). Didn't think it would have anything to do with Brexit. Assumed it had to do with people who had 250k pounds layin around were incentivized one way.
 
Will Mays deal go through?
No - pretty obvious at this stage
Will may be gone by Xmas?
No - pretty obvious because that means a GE and likely Corbyn as PM
Will A50 be extended?
Yes - pretty obvious because the EU keep repeating they want us to stay and will oblige if we ask, which we will because of your last question
Will there be a ge before 29th march?
No - pretty obvious because of the answer to your second question
Will there be a second referendum?
Yes - pretty obvious because what else can happen due to the previous? The PM's deal won't go through, Brussels won't renegotiate because they WANT things to stall as this is what it leads to, May will still be there so Labour won't get their GE and will go to what Corbyn has already described as his Plan B, most other parties will vote for it along with a fair number of Conservative rebels and there's growing public appetite for it to match. It'll be the only plunger left.

The only thing that can stop the second referendum is if after Parliament rejects the current deal May goes back to Brussels, inevitably returns to London with little/no further concessions for a second time, Parliament then have another vote on the deal and all sides decide they're too cowardly to stick to their convictions and instead meet in the middle like May is persuading them to do now (probably already planning ahead for this second round), cashing in their chips on the less awful option than going for a death or glory second referendum. I think the clamour for a second referendum will be too great by then however.
 
Might be interesting to have a poll or a series of questions (not sure who can do that) to see what the consensus is regarding the likley outcomes

Will Mays deal go through?
Will may be gone by Xmas?
Will A50 be extended?
Will there be a ge before 29th march?
Will there be a second referendum?

Thanks whoever made it a poll
 
Is it just me or is it slightly confusing ticking for "No" in the poll answer rather than "Yes"?

That's unlikely to happen. It needs unanimous consent from the other 27 and that's not going to happen unless the UK agrees to the backstop, which the part many in the UK don't like.
What do you mean? Delaying Article 50 would delay us leaving and perhaps even totally prevent us leaving if it was for us to conduct a second referendum; why wouldn't they vote for what they really want?