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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Prime Minister Theresa May has accepted the BBC's offer to take part in a debate on Brexit on Sunday 9 December, two days before MPs vote on her deal.

But Labour sources say the party has not yet agreed to take part, with Jeremy Corbyn telling This Morning he preferred ITV's offer.

The BBC said it was "delighted" Mrs May had accepted the offer.

It added it would be discussing debate formats with both parties and would announce further details soon.

Mr Corbyn claimed he preferred ITV's bid out of "respect" for viewers who wanted to watch the I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! final on ITV the same evening - 9 December.

"I want to watch it myself," he said.

When approached by the BBC, ITV confirmed the final of the show would air at 21:00 GMT.

It is understood the BBC debate programme would start at 20:00 in Birmingham, airing after Strictly Come Dancing and replacing David Attenborough's Dynasties on BBC One.

BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith said Mrs May had accepted this offer "because there was a view on the government's side that the BBC would address the crux of the issue, namely the deal".
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46386737
 
Hammerfell said:
Is he taking the piss?
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He knows we live in a country full of morons who would rather watch a few has beens rather than get informed on the biggest threat to this countrys stability since WW2. He knows he won't be able to get his message across if no one tunes in so he's absolutely right to not want the debate to clash with a popular TV programme among the sheep!
 
Debates are always rubbish but the BBC debate sounds like a awful clusterfeck



The head-to-head would feature a 12-strong panel of “prominent” campaigners, potentially backbench politicians, business and sports figures rather than frontline political figures, who will ask questions directly to the leaders. The panel members will be picked for their position as vocal Brexiteers and Remainers.
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Will the BBC have a Kremlin backdrop behind Corbyn again?
 
SteveJ said:
Will the BBC have a Kremlin backdrop behind Corbyn again?
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I'm expecting something like this:
nddv18d.jpg
 
:lol:
 
Paul the Wolf said:
723.png


EU immigrants down 13000 from March 2018. Non-EU immigrants up 13000 from March 2018 - overall same number.

Brexiters are getting what they wanted - more immigrants from outside the EU, that's what they wanted, wasn't it?
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Fabulous! Foreigners, but different foreigners! Exactly what the Brexiteers were after right from the start. Over the moon they'll be.
 
This poll is confusing but strongly indicates that a second referendum would be no panacea.

Slide27.png



May's deal+No deal strongly outnumber Remain.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet

By looking at proportions of voters in the 1st poll, you can conclude that don't know/won't vote are breaking *against* remain which would be expected at 45% if the trends from the left hand side poll held.
 
Sweet Square said:
Debates are always rubbish but the BBC debate sounds like a awful clusterfeck

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It's no surprise the goverment has gone for the BBC as they know they'll skew it in the goverments favour.

She'll get to see the questions before hand and it'll just be the same old spun lies.
 
Sweet Square said:
Debates are always rubbish but the BBC debate sounds like a awful clusterfeck

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Christ how demeaning would it be for Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, to ask Jeremy Corbyn a question from the audience. Feck the BBC.
 
Could they invite a pro-Remain QC to the panel? It might be the only way to get May to answer a question rather than robotically repeating platitudes.
 
  • Justine Greening, the Conservative former education secretary and a supporter of a second referendum on Brexit, has said that there is time to organise one to take place on 30 May. Speaking at a People’s Vote event she said:
I’ve worked out that you could plan and hold a referendum in 22 weeks. We could actually, after this vote on December 11, hold a referendum, potentially, on May 30 next year. We could, alongside that, choose to extend article 50, I’ve suggested, by four months to July 29.


Hello, in the EU we are voting for a new European parliament between the 23rd and 26th May. The UK will have no seats. Which planet are you on?
 
shamans said:
Can someone give me the very simple basics of what is happening right now? A deal is being negotiated? How are negotiations going?
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There are two separate things-

1. The withdrawal agreement, which sets out interim measures for the period between the UK leaving in March 2019 and the UK-EU agreeing an agreement on their future relationship. This has been agreed between May and the EU but may not get through parliament. If it does not get through parliament (even on a second reading maybe), then we are in crisis mode - general election, second referendum...The EU is unlikely to renegotiate this agreement and, in the absence of an agreement to extend the 29 March leaving date (to which the EU would probably agree to only if there was a 2nd referendum on the table), we crash out on 29 March and all hell breaks loose.

2. The longer-term agreement on the future relationship - this will not be discussed until and unless the withdrawal agreement is signed (the latter includes 7 pages of waffle about the parties’ intentions).

In short - it’s a total mess. Thanks, David Cameron.
 
shamans said:
Can someone give me the very simple basics of what is happening right now? A deal is being negotiated? How are negotiations going?
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According to May and the EU negotiations are over. Some people think the EU will reopen negotiations if we ask them nicely, after parliament votes against May, or after a general election perhaps, others think the EU will not re-negotiate at all, or will not agree substantial changes at any rate. If the latter are right some people think the Act of Withdrawal obliges us to to leave the EU with no deal, whilst others think we should tell the EU we've changed our mind and want to stay, and if we ask to stay some people think the EU will say too late we've agreed you're going, others think they'll say ok mates carry on as you were, while still others think they'll say if you want to stay you'll have to accept new conditions, like joining the Euro and Schengen. I wouldn't waste too much time working it out yet though, because in December you can watch May and Corbyn explain it all on telly, unless you want to watch I'm a Celebrity instead. Which might not be a bad idea when I think about it.
 
MoskvaRed said:
There are two separate things-

1. The withdrawal agreement, which sets out interim measures for the period between the UK leaving in March 2019 and the UK-EU agreeing an agreement on their future relationship. This has been agreed between May and the EU but may not get through parliament. If it does not get through parliament (even on a second reading maybe), then we are in crisis mode - general election, second referendum...The EU is unlikely to renegotiate this agreement and, in the absence of an agreement to extend the 29 March leaving date (to which the EU would probably agree to only if there was a 2nd referendum on the table), we crash out on 29 March and all hell breaks loose.

2. The longer-term agreement on the future relationship - this will not be discussed until and unless the withdrawal agreement is signed (the latter includes 7 pages of waffle about the parties’ intentions).

In short - it’s a total mess. Thanks, David Cameron.
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711 said:
According to May and the EU negotiations are over. Some people think the EU will reopen negotiations if we ask them nicely, after parliament votes against May, or after a general election perhaps, others think the EU will not re-negotiate at all, or will not agree substantial changes at any rate. If the latter are right some people think the Act of Withdrawal obliges us to to leave the EU with no deal, whilst others think we should tell the EU we've changed our mind and want to stay, and if we ask to stay some people think the EU will say too late we've agreed you're going, others think they'll say ok mates carry on as you were, while still others think they'll say if you want to stay you'll have to accept new conditions, like joining the Euro and Schengen. I wouldn't waste too much time working it out yet though, because in December you can watch May and Corbyn explain it all on telly, unless you want to watch I'm a Celebrity instead. Which might not be a bad idea when I think about it.
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Thanks for the replies. Seems like an interesting situation. The idea of there being no deal sounds pretty terrifying from an English perspective though!
 
Sweet Square said:
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I think at a certain level people interpret “leave without a deal” as carry on as normal, as though “the deal” is something in addition to what we currently have now. If it gets to Referendum 2, I don’t know how you would get through to those people. I would only be confident of Remain winning if they allow UK citizens in the EU to vote (100% justifiable as they are the people in the frontline of this decision) and lower the voting age to 16 (unusual but fair in that younger voters have to live with the consequences of this decision more than the OAP Leavers).
 
berbatrick said:
This poll is confusing but strongly indicates that a second referendum would be no panacea.

May's deal+No deal strongly outnumber Remain.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet

By looking at proportions of voters in the 1st poll, you can conclude that don't know/won't vote are breaking *against* remain which would be expected at 45% if the trends from the left hand side poll held.
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Yeah this simply hasn't been enough movement towards remain to justify another referendum. If it was clear and consistent polling of remain getting big leads, fine, but there's not. All the evidence is merely that most people would vote the same as they did, with a small amount of swap over between remain and leave voters.

It's also a huge risk that makes the mistakes of the previous referendum. Offering no deal on a referendum would be absolutely insane. What if it gets voted for? No deal has the exact same things in its favour as the previous referendum - namely the can promise everything because there's no deal and inherently everything is up in the air.

If May's deal gets voted down by far the simplest solution is an EEA+ deal, it achieves Brexit, it doesn't destroy the country, we move on. With a view to moving back into the EU in 20 years when enough people have died off.

The EU referendum showed the fundamental flaws of referendums, namely that you need an educated population, and in an in/out referendum one side can promise the world with no consequence.
 
JulesWinnfield said:
Yeah this simply hasn't been enough movement towards remain to justify another referendum. If it was clear and consistent polling of remain getting big leads, fine, but there's not. All the evidence is merely that most people would vote the same as they did, with a small amount of swap over between remain and leave voters.

It's also a huge risk that makes the mistakes of the previous referendum. Offering no deal on a referendum would be absolutely insane. What if it gets voted for? No deal has the exact same things in its favour as the previous referendum - namely the can promise everything because there's no deal and inherently everything is up in the air.

If May's deal gets voted down by far the simplest solution is an EEA+ deal, it achieves Brexit, it doesn't destroy the country, we move on. With a view to moving back into the EU in 20 years when enough people have died off.

The EU referendum showed the fundamental flaws of referendums, namely that you need an educated population, and in an in/out referendum one side can promise the world with no consequence.
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An EEA+ deal, whatever that means is actually worse than May's deal (the EU offer)
The Uk still have no say, still pay contributions, still have freedom of movement, but don't have a customs union so does not solve NI and still creates chaos at the ports. At least with the current offer the UK stays in the CU/SM for the foreseeable future.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
An EEA+ deal, whatever that means is actually worse than May's deal (the EU offer)
The Uk still have no say, still pay contributions, still have freedom of movement, but don't have a customs union so does not solve NI and still creates chaos at the ports. At least with the current offer the UK stays in the CU/SM for the foreseeable future.
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It's much easier to fudge the Customs Union like May's deal offers in the EEA.

May's deal is very fanciful, its all based on the UK negotiating wonderful trade deals very quickly which is likely to be far more damaging to the UK than just staying in the EEA.
 
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