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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
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I'm doubtful that he would be so stupid as to vote for something which would put his wife's future in the country in jeopardy .. I kinda assumed she had citizenship. If not then sure it's understandable, but you'd expect that to be mentioned in the interview?

The way it's headlined you assume the issue is a political decision dividing them, which I would be pretty doubtful of. It seems more than a little outlandish that this alone would destroy a happy marriage, especially considering they must have discussed politics before. Sounds to me like this guys marriage failed, and this was something which sparked an argument and he's using that to make a story. I reckon if you talked to the wife she'd have a bit more to say about why she left.

Maybe, who knows, but it's rich to just rewrite what he actually says in the video.
 
I'm doubtful that he would be so stupid as to vote for something which would put his wife's future in the country in jeopardy .. I kinda assumed she had citizenship. If not then sure it's understandable, but you'd expect that to be mentioned in the interview?

The way it's headlined you assume the issue is a political decision dividing them, which I would be pretty doubtful of. It seems more than a little outlandish that this alone would destroy a happy marriage, especially considering they must have discussed politics before. Sounds to me like this guys marriage failed, and this was something which sparked an argument and he's using that to make a story. I reckon if you talked to the wife she'd have a bit more to say about why she left.

Who knows but I actually know of people who have voted Leave without it occurring to them that their partner is an EU national without UK citizenship and also people living in the EU voting for Leave when they themselves would suffer from the restrictions on FoM. Some people don't think through the consequences of their actions.
 
Maybe, who knows, but it's rich to just rewrite what he actually says in the video.

What he says in the video makes no sense whatsoever. He's acting like his marriage was rosy until this one night where he shocked her and I don't get how that's at all plausible.

You've got the biggest political decision in a long time, it's all over the TV and news and you're telling me this hasn't come up even once during their marriage? She hasn't even mentioned 'hey, hope this doesn't go through or I might get kicked out of the country!'. I'm struggling to see how this could be such a monumental surprise to her, the whole story is just nonsensical.
 
Who knows but I actually know of people who have voted Leave without it occurring to them that their partner is an EU national without UK citizenship and also people living in the EU voting for Leave when they themselves would suffer from the restrictions on FoM. Some people don't think through the consequences of their actions.

You'd think that this would be a discussion which comes up before the vote though, especially since it's so important to her that supposedly fighting out he voted leave led to her to end a perfect marriage. You'd also like to think that if you married and had 2 kids with a guy, you'd have some idea about his political views.

It sounds like a really crap episode of Jeremy Kyle to me.
 
What he says in the video makes no sense whatsoever. He's acting like his marriage was rosy until this one night where he shocked her and I don't get how that's at all plausible.

You've got the biggest political decision in a long time, it's all over the TV and news and you're telling me this hasn't come up even once during their marriage? She hasn't even mentioned 'hey, hope this doesn't go through or I might get kicked out of the country!'. I'm struggling to see how this could be such a monumental surprise to her, the whole story is just nonsensical.

From watching the video and him saying that his wife felt betrayed, it's possible she just assumed he would vote remain. Or he might have even said he would vote remain but changed his mind at the last minute and then didn't tell her afterwards until she asked.
 
What he says in the video makes no sense whatsoever. He's acting like his marriage was rosy until this one night where he shocked her and I don't get how that's at all plausible.

You've got the biggest political decision in a long time, it's all over the TV and news and you're telling me this hasn't come up even once during their marriage? She hasn't even mentioned 'hey, hope this doesn't go through or I might get kicked out of the country!'. I'm struggling to see how this could be such a monumental surprise to her, the whole story is just nonsensical.


I could quite easily imagine his German wife thinking he would obviously vote remain, given, you know, he is married to a German woman and feeling betrayed by finding the opposite.

But really, who knows, its his marriage, his story so we either take him at his word or you are accusing him of lying. Personally dont have much sympathy for the fellow.
 
Well yes but do you really think remain would win and if they don't then it is No Deal guaranteed. There's no chance of Norway, cherry picking or renegotiating with the EU.

The point is that the only thing better than May's deal is Remain. Everything else is worse.
If everyone's against May's deal they have to choose Remain immediately.
See your contradiction, why would the EU not renegotiate under these circumstances of stampeding towards no-deal?
 
I don't buy that their marriage was 'very successful' before his reveal, I'm gunna go ahead and suggest there were probably underlying issues and this was just something that set off her decision. I don't think you end a marriage with 2 kids because of a political decision you disagree with.

Alright, it's a pretty big political decision .. but I've had relationships with girls who have had wildly different political views and got on fine.

I'm just struggling to see how this goes down. Out of the blue she asks what he voted (no discussions beforehand??), he tells her and she decides that this news about the man she married and had 2 kids with is so mind blowing that she wants to divorce. Life was perfect beforehand, but nah ruined now.

For the woman it would have been seen as a huge betrayal for your own husband to vote against the very principles that allowed you to be together in the first place and a major dissapointment with regards to a persons intellect for reaching such a decision.

Plenty families have been split on the issue because it is so much more than just a political decision. It is stupid to define it simply as such. For a family like that it has immediate real life implications especially for those form the EU whom the Brexit rhetoric has made feel unwelcome here.

Very few EU citizens opt to get British citizenship because it has no benefits and it comes at a huge cost so I would higly doubt she would have had it.
 
See your contradiction, why would the EU not renegotiate under these circumstances of stampeding towards no-deal?

What do you expect them to renegotiate?

Citizens rights - no
Financial Settlement - no
Irish border - no
Backstop -no
4 freedoms - no

I don't see what could be negotiated. The fact that it's taken all this time just for May to agree to what we knew she had to agree to two years ago has delayed talks for anything else and that the new trade arrangements will not be discussed until after the UK leaves which was known all along but ignored by most politicians.

The offer is there, it's up to the UK to decide whether they fall off the cliff or not. The other choice is to cancel Brexit altogether.
 
See your contradiction, why would the EU not renegotiate under these circumstances of stampeding towards no-deal?
Any negotiation would have to ensure that there is no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That means a Common Market between the two. That means we have 3 choices.

1) The Deal that the EU will give for us to leave. May's deal.
2) Remain
3) crash out. The thing is that when we crash out the EU would still demand that there be no border between Ireland and N Ireland for us to have a trade deal. It would also likely say that we would need to revoke our ownership of Gibraltar. Crashing out leaves us weaker than any other deal.
 
Brexit-Jeremy-Corbyn-a-Bruxelles-en-marge-du-sommet-europeen-ou-Tusk-n-attend-pas-de-percee.png
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/e...a-brexit-deal-can-renegotiated-161400838.html

Insane...
 
Any negotiation would have to ensure that there is no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That means a Common Market between the two. That means we have 3 choices.

1) The Deal that the EU will give for us to leave. May's deal.
2) Remain
3) crash out. The thing is that when we crash out the EU would still demand that there be no border between Ireland and N Ireland for us to have a trade deal. It would also likely say that we would need to revoke our ownership of Gibraltar. Crashing out leaves us weaker than any other deal.
What do you expect them to renegotiate?

Citizens rights - no
Financial Settlement - no
Irish border - no
Backstop -no
4 freedoms - no

I don't see what could be negotiated. The fact that it's taken all this time just for May to agree to what we knew she had to agree to two years ago has delayed talks for anything else and that the new trade arrangements will not be discussed until after the UK leaves which was known all along but ignored by most politicians.

The offer is there, it's up to the UK to decide whether they fall off the cliff or not. The other choice is to cancel Brexit altogether.
Maybe less renegotiated and more reworded in the hope that UK politicians lose their nerve second time round of voting. Although there is a tiered model that Barnier said he'd release a few months ago showing how market access can be increased proportionately to the level of overall integration, which I think is what Corbyn thinks he's referring to.

Thinking sequentially though, what is going to happen is the EU is going to offer us a little something to kick remain over the line in the inevitable second referendum.
 
Maybe less renegotiated and more reworded in the hope that UK politicians lose their nerve second time round of voting. Although there is a tiered model that Barnier said he'd release a few months ago showing how market access can be increased proportionately to the level of overall integration, which I think is what Corbyn thinks he's referring to.

Thinking sequentially though, what is going to happen is the EU is going to offer us a little something to kick remain over the line in the inevitable second referendum.

I don't see what the EU can offer more, they think they have offered generously up to now. A little rewording of the political declaration I don't think will make much difference should there be another referendum. If the voters really understood what was happening or what will happen when they leave I doubt the Uk would be in this position now. Corbyn is doing what May did at the beginning. Being in the customs Union and Single Market is being in the EU but Corbyn expects to have this whilst being outside and not having to follow the 4 freedoms. It's like going back 2 years ago.
 
I don't see what the EU can offer more, they think they have offered generously up to now. A little rewording of the political declaration I don't think will make much difference should there be another referendum. If the voters really understood what was happening or what will happen when they leave I doubt the Uk would be in this position now. Corbyn is doing what May did at the beginning. Being in the customs Union and Single Market is being in the EU but Corbyn expects to have this whilst being outside and not having to follow the 4 freedoms. It's like going back 2 years ago.
Well on the tiered model there are about 6 rungs, Corbyn wants to shift to upwards in integration and market access whilst the hard right-wing Conservatives want to shift downwards. Regarding Corbyn so long as you're not on the top rung you can claim to have ended "freedom of movement" and Labour's shtick is that they are prioritising the economy over immigration anyway, so I think that's what he's talking about when he refers to his big plan for renegotiating.

When I talk about rewording the declaration I mean that in relation to dressing up that process as "renegotiating" for May to take back in the hope that politicians lose their nerve at the second round of parliamentary voting on it; at the second referendum the EU will push the boat out much further as far as emergency brakes, kickbacks etc go.
 
In France, the "yellow vest" protesters won something. Perhaps the Remainers can learn from them? What if they organize large scale protests demanding a second referendum? Three years of craziness are enough. I know it sound silly, but someone has to step up to resolve the Brexit problem.
 
In France, the "yellow vest" protesters won something. Perhaps the Remainers can learn from them? What if they organize large scale protests demanding a second referendum? Three years of craziness are enough. I know it sound silly, but someone has to step up to resolve the Brexit problem.
And what happens if Brexiters think the same way?
 
Well on the tiered model there are about 6 rungs, Corbyn wants to shift to upwards in integration and market access whilst the hard right-wing Conservatives want to shift downwards. Regarding Corbyn so long as you're not on the top rung you can claim to have ended "freedom of movement" and Labour's shtick is that they are prioritising the economy over immigration anyway, so I think that's what he's talking about when he refers to his big plan for renegotiating.

When I talk about rewording the declaration I mean that in relation to dressing up that process as "renegotiating" for May to take back in the hope that politicians lose their nerve at the second round of parliamentary voting on it; at the second referendum the EU will push the boat out much further as far as emergency brakes, kickbacks etc go.

I haven't seen a six tier model - what I have seen he wants a new Customs Union but still being able to run their own trade policy and having a say in trade deals plus access to the single market while setting their own immigration policies.
This is totally against the four freedoms and don't see how the EU could ever agree. How much is he prepared to pay for this privilege and what about ECJ. Sounds even more cherry picking than May. The Uk already have control over EU citizens just that they never applied the law. He also hasn't said what his immigration policies would be.

As the EU have said so many times if a country is not in the EU they do not get the benefits and they consider that the UK will be getting the best relationship with the EU of all the third countries.
I also don't believe the EU are as desperate for the UK to stay as much as the UK think they do. 27 countries are watching very carefully at what the UK are offered.
 
In France, the "yellow vest" protesters won something. Perhaps the Remainers can learn from them? What if they organize large scale protests demanding a second referendum? Three years of craziness are enough. I know it sound silly, but someone has to step up to resolve the Brexit problem.
Last thing we want is remainers and Brexiteers going toe to toe on the streets.
 
In France, the "yellow vest" protesters won something. Perhaps the Remainers can learn from them? What if they organize large scale protests demanding a second referendum? Three years of craziness are enough. I know it sound silly, but someone has to step up to resolve the Brexit problem.
It's hard to see the people who attended the people's vote march setting fire to their own porsches.
 
I haven't seen a six tier model - what I have seen he wants a new Customs Union but still being able to run their own trade policy and having a say in trade deals plus access to the single market while setting their own immigration policies.
This is totally against the four freedoms and don't see how the EU could ever agree. How much is he prepared to pay for this privilege and what about ECJ. Sounds even more cherry picking than May. The Uk already have control over EU citizens just that they never applied the law. He also hasn't said what his immigration policies would be.

As the EU have said so many times if a country is not in the EU they do not get the benefits and they consider that the UK will be getting the best relationship with the EU of all the third countries.
I also don't believe the EU are as desperate for the UK to stay as much as the UK think they do. 27 countries are watching very carefully at what the UK are offered.
Does Corbyn definitely want to be able to strike independent trade deals? As far as I've seen he's been extremely vague on everything so far; what are "immigration policies that don't set targets and thresholds", what is a "British say in future deals"... I'd say it's obvious he wants his own bespoke EFTA-type agreement, maintaining the four freedoms but with a few things given up for a few extra controls a la Norway but not officially like Norway. Then he'll max out our credit line making all the underlying causes of the leave vote temporarily go away.

As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets... I don't think the president of Latvia is going to get any fancy ideas because we got some extra rebate and an immigration brake after these two years of absolute hell. Not that by necessity those are exclusive offers to us anyway.
 
Does Corbyn definitely want to be able to strike independent trade deals? As far as I've seen he's been extremely vague on everything so far; what are "immigration policies that don't set targets and thresholds", what is a "British say in future deals"... I'd say it's obvious he wants his own bespoke EFTA-type agreement, maintaining the four freedoms but with a few things given up for a few extra controls a la Norway but not officially like Norway. Then he'll max out our credit line making all the underlying causes of the leave vote temporarily go away.

As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets... I don't think the president of Latvia is going to get any fancy ideas because we got some extra rebate and an immigration brake after these two years of absolute hell. Not that by necessity those are exclusive offers to us anyway.

Corbyn wants to be PM. He doesn't want to take a position at all if he can help it to avoid pissing off Brexiteers or remainers or his base.
 
An offer to subscribe to the Financial Times?
Leave campaigners prepare quietly for second Brexit referendum
Lynton Crosby aide working behind the scenes with Eurosceptics on strategy for new vote


Prominent Leave campaigners are making behind-the-scenes preparations for a second referendum, according to MPs and activists, in the growing belief that stalemate over Brexit in parliament could eventually force the issue back to the electorate. Several people involved said that an aide to Lynton Crosby, the Australian political strategist behind the Conservatives’ 2015 election victory, has been working with Eurosceptic MPs in plotting the future course of Brexit. This has included informal conversations on how to handle another plebiscite.
 
As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets...

I think people forget the political impact on EU of the UK leaving, which might very well be more important than the economic one. After all, this has long stopped being just an Economic Union to become an ambitious political project.

Before the referendum there were all kind of ideas floating around about how the EU was in danger, about how that could become the first step into future disintegration, etc. I remember doom analysts on TV and newspapers equating the Brexit referendum almost to a vote on the survival of Europe.

Three years later and Europe seems more united politically then ever. Even countries like Italy with severe problems and in which an exit was also (superficially) discussed seem to have deviated from the idea.

I think EU main leaders see Brexit as an opportunity to make EU stronger. After all, the UK always seemed the less politically commited of all big members. As it stands, the UK will either be out, or, if it remains, it will do so with renewed will.

Since the referendum, you saw zero attempts from EU to try and influence or sway Brexit from happening. What at first seemed just like some form of political etiquette (i.e., "British people voted for this so lets respect them and be complicit") now seems more and more like a deliberate will to make it happen.

Personally, as a supporter of european integration, I was terrified of brexit and am now satisfied by it. It's almost as if this has all been planned along for "our" own benefit.
 
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Does Corbyn definitely want to be able to strike independent trade deals? As far as I've seen he's been extremely vague on everything so far; what are "immigration policies that don't set targets and thresholds", what is a "British say in future deals"... I'd say it's obvious he wants his own bespoke EFTA-type agreement, maintaining the four freedoms but with a few things given up for a few extra controls a la Norway but not officially like Norway. Then he'll max out our credit line making all the underlying causes of the leave vote temporarily go away.

As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets... I don't think the president of Latvia is going to get any fancy ideas because we got some extra rebate and an immigration brake after these two years of absolute hell. Not that by necessity those are exclusive offers to us anyway.

What Corbyn says he wants is very vague , if you are maintaining the four freedoms you may as well stay in the EU, because the Uk will still have to pay, still follow the same rules, the only thing they won't have is a say in the EU and they won't get a say unless they are in the EU.

The biggest threat to the UK is grinding the country to a halt or or at least massive logistical problems and no amount of borrowing is going to help that.
The EU have long accepted the UK are leaving and just want to make the divorce as least painful as possible. The deal offered to May suits the EU and for the UK should suit them if they are actually leaving.

The EU will suffer to an extent but they are not going to feel anywhere near the effects that the UK will. The EU have lost an agreement with one country. The UK have lost agreements with over 70 countries and the borders of the UK will be closed and the EU's are open to all the other EU countries.
Latvia suddenly becomes more powerful than the UK because they have the whole of the EU with them.
 
I think it's a bit naive to take the EU on their absolute word that no renegotiation will occur, they've been trying to support May on pushing this through and they're just taking a helpful position now.

Whilst we're never going to be able to cherry pick It would be foolish not to go back especially under new leadership (ideally cross-party) with new red lines to see what can be done.

All roads will lead to a people's vote but if you're saying this is the only deal on the table in any context that's just a lie to the public.
 
What Corbyn says he wants is very vague , if you are maintaining the four freedoms you may as well stay in the EU, because the Uk will still have to pay, still follow the same rules, the only thing they won't have is a say in the EU and they won't get a say unless they are in the EU.

The biggest threat to the UK is grinding the country to a halt or or at least massive logistical problems and no amount of borrowing is going to help that.
The EU have long accepted the UK are leaving and just want to make the divorce as least painful as possible. The deal offered to May suits the EU and for the UK should suit them if they are actually leaving.

The EU will suffer to an extent but they are not going to feel anywhere near the effects that the UK will. The EU have lost an agreement with one country. The UK have lost agreements with over 70 countries and the borders of the UK will be closed and the EU's are open to all the other EU countries.
Latvia suddenly becomes more powerful than the UK because they have the whole of the EU with them.


In what sense would Latvia be 'more powerful' than? More diplomatic weight around the world? You honestly think that just because they're a minor EU member countries worldwide would take them more seriously than the UK, a nuclear power which has one of the biggest economies and military budgets in the world and a very close relationship with the world's most powerful entity (the United States). Is Latvia more powerful than Russia too, simply because they're a member of the EU?

The idea that just being part of the EU would make every member of the EU more 'powerful' than us is hyperbole, and I think leaving is a shit decision.
 
I think it's a bit naive to take the EU on their absolute word that no renegotiation will occur, they've been trying to support May on pushing this through and they're just taking a helpful position now.

Whilst we're never going to be able to cherry pick It would be foolish not to go back especially under new leadership (ideally cross-party) with new red lines to see what can be done.

All roads will lead to a people's vote but if you're saying this is the only deal on the table in any context that's just a lie to the public.

I put this question before, what do people expect the EU to change from this offer? It's just a withdrawal agreement with a political declaration as to what the future relationship will look like. Sounds like clutching at straws.
 
In what sense would Latvia be 'more powerful' than? More diplomatic weight around the world? You honestly think that just because they're a minor EU member countries worldwide would take them more seriously than the UK, a nuclear power which has one of the biggest economies and military budgets in the world and a very close relationship with the world's most powerful entity (the United States). Is Latvia more powerful than Russia too, simply because they're a member of the EU?

The idea that just being part of the EU would make every member of the EU more 'powerful' than us is hyperbole, and I think leaving is a shit decision.

In the sense of having a powerful negotiating bloc working on their behalf, not as a military power.