I guess I can hope for Remain to become more likely by the end of the month when the invoice will go through... and the same to happen at the end of January
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I guess I can hope for Remain to become more likely by the end of the month when the invoice will go through... and the same to happen at the end of January
She spoke with Varadkar last night. He seem's to be the guy who wants the copper-bottom on this and the rest of the EU are backing him. If nobody wants to use it then take it out.
Just agree to have crisis talks to find a holding position IF and WHEN a trade deal doesn't look as if it will be done in the requisite time.
In the meantime get the Techies on it big time. There will need to be a border solution after a FTA is agreed in any case - and that can't be the same as this backstop so it has to be tech.
Unfortunately I don't think any of the Tory or Labour politicians have got the guts to give Remain a chance, and the EU are not going to renegotiate.
Why would Ireland ever agree to the UK leaving them in a position where they'd have to rely on the UK to act in good faith later? Considering what a total arse the UK has made of everything so far.
The trade agreement discussions don't start until after the UK have left, it won't be finalised for years from now.
Any chance they've extended the transition to try and make the backstop less likely?
Not sure even that would pass parlaiment though.
Not sure even that would pass parlaiment though.
has to be agreed by all the eu countries to extend so no way this has been agreed without multiple leaks (plus no doubt we have to continue to pay and be a "rule taker not a rule maker" in that period - so wouldnt help her with the parliamentary vote)
we could now of course unilaterally stop A50 - but again I think if that was a realistic option it would have been heavily leaked in order to assess the public reaction
That is what the EU are asking the UK to do. I'm saying that if nobody wants to use it, then lose it. Amend the agreement to say that if it is looking like an FTA isn't going to be agreed by the end of 2020 then crisis talks will be held to find a temporary position at that point. By such time there could be some tech solution available.
If Ireland want May's vote to succeed then they will need to look at something like that. Or they risk a no-deal crash out which would be far worse for Ireland - and the border.
will they launch a no confidence motion?
I'm not sure it will work but I think they will try
There may not be a long term agreement for years, but won't there be discussion as to what happens at the end of the transition period? Which could result in an agreement, a temporary agreement, or no agreement at all of course.
They are meant to be finalised for the end of 2020. The backstop is border insurance if they have not been finalised. But the backstop kills the deal.
This is a clusterfak of all clusterfaks in history.
That's our problem not theirs. No-deal would be bad for the Ireland and the rest of the EU, but it would be cataclysmic for the UK. So why do we imagine the EU should be the ones to have to sort out our shit for us yet again? We wanted to leave, we don't like the backstop, all this stuff is us not them.
This situation just seems to get messier every day. The Tories don't have a clue and Labour don't have a clue either.
If Labour's position doesn't change and there is another GE, I'll either go with Greens or Lib Dem.
I can't give Labour much heat for where we are now, but they've shown nothing to suggest they'd resolve the situation.
If Labour's position doesn't change and there is another GE, I'll either go with Greens or Lib Dem.
I can't give Labour much heat for where we are now, but they've shown nothing to suggest they'd resolve the situation.
Just noticed on the A50 ruling - the UK can only unilaterally withdraw - subject to a vote in parliament
Basically you would have to get 50%+ of MPs to vote to remain in the EU under the current terms
I'm not sure there is a majority for anything in parliament - including that
So I'm not sure its changed anything - no deal and leaving on 29th March still seems most likley
Basically you would have to get 50%+ of MPs to vote to remain in the EU under the current terms
I'm not sure there is a majority for anything in parliament - including that
So I'm not sure its changed anything - no deal and leaving on 29th March still seems most likley
I think they are likely to wait for the "meaningful vote", whenever that will be.
Would think the transition period will be extended. There's no way a trade deal would be finalised by the end of 2020. But the backstop is not going to be removed or be allowed to be retracted unilaterally.
Don't know what the answer is because I don't think there is an answer and there will always be different factions who will be unhappy with any agreement.
The EU don't have any reason to think May can get any deal through parliament, why should they waste their time renegotiating?
May has to resign. Her position is untenable.
May has to resign. Her position is untenable.
Just put it to another referendum: May's Deal vs Remain. It's pretty fecking simple.
Out of curiosity is there enough time left to get a second referendum done before the hard Brexit deadline arrives in 3.5 months?
We can unilaterally withdraw Article 50 at any point if we want to stop the clock.
Whatever is about to happen you can guarantee it's aimed at securing Tory power and trying to damage Labour.
Wouldn't suprise me if she proposed a referendum on her deal or no deal brexit.
Wouldn't suprise me if she proposed a referendum on her deal or no deal brexit.
It may be extended yes, we just don't know. Don't forget the backstop will only come into existence if May's deal is passed in parliament, and that's looking unlikely at the moment.
That's not the issue, I'm asking about the logistics of getting a parliamentary vote for conducting a referendum, setting up a voting date and tallying the results.
If the political will was there, yes they could.
It took 6 months to get the referendum legislation passed last time, let alone campaigning period etc. Perhaps things could be sped up this time, so the answer is "who knows?!"
will be interesting to see how long she can get away with delaying it... presumably she will have to announce that in her statement at 3:30?
Sure, but I'm saying that deadline at the end of March can be moved if there isn't enough time.
Yes, what bemuses me is that the agreement May has is the logical outcome of the Uk leaving, there are no cherries or magical solutions to the Irish border. Thus everyone is acting as this agreement is some kind of astonishing outcome and no-one has prepared for an alternative.
What did the UK expect to happen, this really astounds me and to compound it Labour are still talking about fantasy island after all this time.
Yes, imagine the scenes if what is best for the country, status quo, wins. How awful would that be?
the electoral commission said 22 weeks minimum (otherwise you open yourself up to legal arguments about fairness / validity)
and thats 22 weeks after the legistlation is passed in Parliament (4 weeks I believe... MP's would vote for it)
and thats after you have found a question that can be agreed on (and that its self would be a big battle I think)
so in short I think you would be lucky to have anything in place before mid June - probably July / August more realistic
I'd presume the EU would also have to agree to it.
And on cue.
Pound drops as Theresa May delays Commons vote on EU deal
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...change-rates-latest-dollar-euro-a8675911.html
yes
also remember there are EU elections in April / May where we are due to loose all our Eu representatives and they are to be distributed to other countries - a not insignificant technical hurdle as I cant see the Eu wanting to delay things past then
TBF its a much smaller drop than when they lost the votes the other day
https://www.google.com/search?q=pou...i57j69i59l3.2326j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
And I suspect a much smaller drop than would have happened when they lost the vote tomorrow
As an interested outsider, this is what baffles me as well. What exactly did the UK expect? Those who now attack this deal as unacceptable - what did they have in mind and why would the EU agree to that?
I think this has to be the only way forward. Not only is it the most common sense option, but it pleases those who want a second referendum, and doesn't tread on the toes of the "will of the people" peddlers.
something like the UK becoming an empire again and all these johnny foreigners lining up to be our bitches... anything less is un-British
I'm annoyed i can't watch, she's going to get fecking slaughtered in parlaiment for this
I think No deal or Mays deal is a more likley vote for her to sanction
saying the people have voted to leave - now the people will choose how to leave