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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Can I just point out that Labour are only doing what any opposition party should be doing and that is challenging the government.

Why should they try to force a confidence vote if they are not yet confident they can win it.
Their best tactic is to sit on their hands and let the government continue to unravel due to this self inflicted chaos.
Fine, if this is your generic "government flailing around with one of their manifesto commitments" unravellings. But this one happens to be something that's going to shape the country for the next generation or two, and if it carries on descending into "chaos", self-inflicted by the Tories or not, we're all gonna pay.
 
Labour should not say a word until uk is out or there is a ge. Let the cons be responsible for this and dont get involved, just stoke the hornets nest now and then.
 
I'll try one last time. If you still don't get it you never will:

1. Corbyn has nothing to lose by calling a vote of no confidence, because there is a realistic prospect that he will win it. With the declared support of the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid Cmryu added to Labour votes there are divisions in the Conservative Party to win that vote. Labour might loose, but then it's on the likes of Soubry and Grieve to explain why they put party before country given what they've said to date.
2. If Corbyn calls that vote and May survives, there's nothing stopping him calling another vote of no confidence in 2 months time when May is defeated in the meaningful vote. If anything, precedent dictates that being defeated on such a key piece of legislation dictates a no- confidence vote is called.
3. There's no realistic prospect that a vote of no confidence could be passed without Labour's support so criticising Ummana for not motioning a symbolic vote himself is a completely different argument. It's at best deflection, and at worst you seem to be implying that Corbyn's authority and leadership is so weak that he'd either later decide to support that motion, or that Labour would reject the party's position on mass.
4. As Corbyn is leader of the opposition he should attract more opposition than a fecking backbencher for a failure to oppose demonstrably ruinous government policy.
What a shambles eh? Politics on full display, disheartening and dishonest.... Disgraceful.
 
I'll try one last time. If you still don't get it you never will:

1. Corbyn has nothing to lose by calling a vote of no confidence, because there is a realistic prospect that he will win it. With the declared support of the SNP, Lib Dems and Plaid Cmryu added to Labour votes there are divisions in the Conservative Party to win that vote. Labour might loose, but then it's on the likes of Soubry and Grieve to explain why they put party before country given what they've said to date.
2. If Corbyn calls that vote and May survives, there's nothing stopping him calling another vote of no confidence in 2 months time when May is defeated in the meaningful vote. If anything, precedent dictates that being defeated on such a key piece of legislation dictates a no- confidence vote is called.
3. There's no realistic prospect that a vote of no confidence could be passed without Labour's support so criticising Ummana for not motioning a symbolic vote himself is a completely different argument. It's at best deflection, and at worst you seem to be implying that Corbyn's authority and leadership is so weak that he'd either later decide to support that motion, or that Labour would reject the party's position on mass.
4. As Corbyn is leader of the opposition he should attract more opposition than a fecking backbencher for a failure to oppose demonstrably ruinous government policy.
Soubry will probably do it as easily as she managed to convince the people at the second People's Vote march that she's concerned about vulnerable people after Brexit, 3 days after she'd voted to keep the Universal Credit rollout risk assessment private. Or how she's managing to reinvent herself as a champion of the EU, despite voting once out of 15 attempts in favour of EU nationals' right to remain in the UK, to 12 times against and 3 times in favour of the UK's membership of the EU, to 13 times against it. Hell, Soubry took to James O'Brien's show on LBC to say she'd prefer a no-deal Brexit to a Labour government last week and People's Vote haven't disowned her yet. Grieve even managed to survive voting against his own amendment, so I can't see this being a problem for either of them.

Every single person on that list has been vocal in their complaints that Labour prioritise an election over a second referendum. The minute the results of the vote are read and May wins, it'll be a race to see which of them is the first to any TV or radio live microphone within a 50 mile radius to say "Look, we tried to get rid of May and we can't. Time for a second referendum". They know a no confidence vote now will lose, they want it to lose, they just don't want to be the ones who table it. They have absolutely no interest in getting rid of the Tories.
 
Fine, if this is your generic "government flailing around with one of their manifesto commitments" unravellings. But this one happens to be something that's going to shape the country for the next generation or two, and if it carries on descending into "chaos", self-inflicted by the Tories or not, we're all gonna pay.
That's precisely my view. I hate people saying 'Corbyn's playing a blinder sitting back as the government falls apart'. The whole fecking country will burn if he can't somehow force a change of government or policy.
 
I read Ninjafletch's post and I think Corbyn should do something and I read other posts and I think Labour should hold on and let this government destroy themselves. :(

Although I'm not living in England so I'm not affected by this immediately.
 
So tomorrow... Will the government tomorrow give the opportunity to vote on pulling the vote?

Or will they talk out the motion (essentially a filibuster)

The speaker seemed fairly forceful that they should do the former... But there would surely be a big risk in doing so.

That said when there is eventually a meaningful vote it will be the speaker who selects the amendments that can be voted on and perhaps in the longer term that's a bigger risk?
 
That's precisely my view. I hate people saying 'Corbyn's playing a blinder sitting back as the government falls apart'. The whole fecking country will burn if he can't somehow force a change of government or policy.
Nationalising that water though...
 
Fine, if this is your generic "government flailing around with one of their manifesto commitments" unravellings. But this one happens to be something that's going to shape the country for the next generation or two, and if it carries on descending into "chaos", self-inflicted by the Tories or not, we're all gonna pay.

Not to mention. We're already at this point. If Labour's 'policy' was to let the Conservatives pull themselves to pieces then congratulations, we're there. They've lurched from one near unprecedented defeat to an unprecedented defeat and it's changed nothing.


What a shambles eh? Politics on full display, disheartening and dishonest.... Disgraceful.

I just wish you'd waited so I could correct my typos before quoting me, ha.

Soubry will probably do it as easily as she managed to convince the people at the second People's Vote march that she's concerned about vulnerable people after Brexit, 3 days after she'd voted to keep the Universal Credit rollout risk assessment private. Or how she's managing to reinvent herself as a champion of the EU, despite voting once out of 15 attempts in favour of EU nationals' right to remain in the UK, to 12 times against and 3 times in favour of the UK's membership of the EU, to 13 times against it. Hell, Soubry took to James O'Brien's show on LBC to say she'd prefer a no-deal Brexit to a Labour government last week and People's Vote haven't disowned her yet. Grieve even managed to survive voting against his own amendment, so I can't see this being a problem for either of them.

Every single person on that list has been vocal in their complaints that Labour prioritise an election over a second referendum. The minute the results of the vote are read and May wins, it'll be a race to see which of them is the first to any TV or radio live microphone within a 50 mile radius to say "Look, we tried to get rid of May and we can't. Time for a second referendum". They know a no confidence vote now will lose, they want it to lose, they just don't want to be the ones who table it. They have absolutely no interest in getting rid of the Tories.

And it costs nothing to find out, and we can go from there. On the other hand there's a very real risk that your defeatist assumption that Labour would lose the vote gets us one step closer to no deal. History won't forget Corbyn's role in it if that happens.
 
That's precisely my view. I hate people saying 'Corbyn's playing a blinder sitting back as the government falls apart'. The whole fecking country will burn if he can't somehow force a change of government or policy.
Yes it does seem a bit 'forest for the trees...'
 
That's precisely my view. I hate people saying 'Corbyn's playing a blinder sitting back as the government falls apart'. The whole fecking country will burn if he can't somehow force a change of government or policy.

Corbyn could be the leader of the only party in a one party state and still lose the election.
 
And it costs nothing to find out, and we can go from there. On the other hand there's a very real risk that your defeatist assumption that Labour would lose the vote gets us one step closer to no deal. History won't forget Corbyn's role in it if that happens.
So if I'm more positive, the Tories who can't be bothered to rally hard enough to trigger a party leadership challenge will vote against May? Even Anna Soubry, who also on James O'Brien's show last week tried to make out that (other than Brexit) the Tories were doing great things, will vote against May? Is that all that's been stopping the Tories from being defeated, me knowing how two-faced Tory twats work?
 
I read Ninjafletch's post and I think Corbyn should do something and I read other posts and I think Labour should hold on and let this government destroy themselves. :(

Although I'm not living in England so I'm not affected by this immediately.

Problem is, the government has been destroying itself for a year and nothing's changed. It might, under any normal scenario, be a good play, but we're far beyond normal.

So if I'm more positive, the Tories who can't be bothered to rally hard enough to trigger a party leadership challenge will vote against May? Even Anna Soubry, who also on James O'Brien's show last week tried to make out that (other than Brexit) the Tories were doing great things, will vote against May? Is that all that's been stopping the Tories from being defeated, me knowing how two-faced Tory twats work?

It doesn't matter if it's them or backbenchers. It doesn't matter if they're Remainers or hardline cultist No Dealers, it doesn't matter if they're pissed and stagger in to the wrong lobby. We're talking wafer thin margins and almost unprecedented hostility from within the Conservative party towards their own leader.

They may fall into line and vote with the government, but then they would be the ones who should be criticised. Failing to even attempt to exploit absolutely blatant divisions in the Conservative party at the cost of absolutely nothing is a gigantic missed opportunity.
 
It doesn't matter if it's them or backbenchers. It doesn't matter if they're Remainers or hardline cultist No Dealers, it doesn't matter if they're pissed and stagger in to the wrong lobby. We're talking wafer thin margins and almost unprecedented hostility from within the Conservative party towards their own leader.

They may fall into line and vote with the government, but then they would be the ones who should be criticised. Failing to even attempt to exploit absolutely blatant divisions in the Conservative party at the cost of absolutely nothing is a gigantic missed opportunity.
The two people you picked out earlier have already done just that when given a chance to bring the government down on Brexit and they will do so again. As Soubry said on LBC, 'Corbyn is a much greater threat to our country [than Brexit]. No doubt at all.'
 
Don't see how any of this resolved amicably..

1. NI backstop option will never pass parliament
2. EU won't accept deal without backstop..
3. Could do second referendum.. but then you ignite a political civil war.. what's to stop a third referendum if remain wins?

The only way it could work is if the EU compromises on the backstop.. but realisitically there's no feasible way to align NI and Ireland trade without border checks in the case of a no deal. The only way really everything works in terms of trade is if the UK remains, but then you go against the first referendum and a lot of the Conservative leavers.. very messy.. as you'd expect in a situation where half the country wants to leave and half wants to remain, more than half of politicians want to remain but a significant amount want to carry out the result of the referendum.. and the EU have no incentive to comprimise.. very hard to see how a deal is done.

I think 90% of what goes through parliament will be rejected as there's no real solution to the NI issue.. so the most likely outcome will be a No Deal. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I'd love to short the pound but just too many variables to really be certain of how it plays out.
 
The two people you picked out earlier have already done just that when given a chance to bring the government down on Brexit and they will do so again. As Soubry said on LBC, 'Corbyn is a much greater threat to our country [than Brexit]. No doubt at all.'

example
[ig-zam-puh l, -zahm-]

noun
  1. one of a number of things, or a part of something, taken to show the character of the whole
  2. a pattern or model, as of something to be imitated or avoided
  3. an instance serving for illustration; specimen
You'll also note that it was an example deployed specifically in the context, both times, of Conservatives needing to take flak for putting party before country.
 
I'm sure somehow it would be Blair's fault...
There's some weird conversations going on regarding no confidence. MPs do on occasion vote against their own party's official line, they also call for a new party leader sometimes, but it's extremely unlikely any would vote against their own party in a no confidence motion, and no one would seriously expect them to do so. What Corbyn could do is persuade the other opposition parties to join him and vote no confidence, and there are enough of them to win, although he would have to time it for when the DUP were so pissed off with May they would join him. Or bribe them, whichever.
 
Corbyn could be the leader of the only party in a one party state and still lose the election.
It doesnt matter how many partys there are, people will still vote a tory govt in cos they are thick. Then they can blame their stupidity in there not being any opposition, bit like now .
 
There's some weird conversations going on regarding no confidence. MPs do on occasion vote against their own party's official line, they also call for a new party leader sometimes, but it's extremely unlikely any would vote against their own party in a no confidence motion, and no one would seriously expect them to do so. What Corbyn could do is persuade the other opposition parties to join him and vote no confidence, and there are enough of them to win, although he would have to time it for when the DUP were so pissed off with May they would join him. Or bribe them, whichever.

No one is arguing otherwise. We're full-blown in the midst of a constitutional crisis, though, and that tends to make weird things happen.
 
I mean France rioted and got what they wanted plus increased minimum wage.....so....balaclava time?
 
He's far too busy somehow being the poster boy for a movement that is trying to make mass marches through London into events politicians shouldn't ignore, with a straight face. That's before we get onto his lucrative work with the House of Saud.

David Icke made a great point recently regarding the direction of the Labour party over the past 10-15 years. He says that the Labour Party was formed to protect the urban, working-class, people from the 'elite'. But people like Blair, & dare I say it, Corbyn, are now becoming the elite. There isn't that much democracy anymore here in the western world. We basically have 2 choices, with neither of them really offering anything that remotely resembles a brighter future. I shudder to think what the years ahead will hold for my children & my grandchildren if the EU's plans for a superstate come to fruition. We have very little say in what happens now regarding our country's affairs. It's little wonder that people are looking to the extreme choices in order for their voices to be heard.
 
David Icke made a great point recently regarding the direction of the Labour party over the past 10-15 years. He says that the Labour Party was formed to protect the urban, working-class, people from the 'elite'. But people like Blair, & dare I say it, Corbyn, are now becoming the elite. There isn't that much democracy anymore here in the western world. We basically have 2 choices, with neither of them really offering anything that remotely resembles a brighter future. I shudder to think what the years ahead will hold for my children & my grandchildren if the EU's plans for a superstate come to fruition. We have very little say in what happens now regarding our country's affairs. It's little wonder that people are looking to the extreme choices in order for their voices to be heard.

Not really sure how you can call Corbyn "elite", misguided and ineffective perhaps but "elite" seems like a square peg in round hole.

Surely you should be Corbyn's biggest fan since he is trying to protect your grandchildren from the super duper scary EU superstate. I mean if that's your biggest fear for them then frankly they're quite lucky!
 
It doesnt matter how many partys there are, people will still vote a tory govt in cos they are thick. Then they can blame their stupidity in there not being any opposition, bit like now .

My problem with him is not his party or politics, it's my opinion of him as a leader. He also always seems to be reading speeches, badly, nothing off the cuff.
What if Labour were currently in power, they'd be having even more ridiculous negotiations with the EU negotiating for more impossible targets.

The Tories are at their weakest at this moment with the most terrible leader since the war and he still can't look good.

One can see the UK heading for a No deal and someone's going to have to pick up the pieces. Is this the job Corbyn wants?
 
DUP said they'll support a censor motion against May but I'm assuming that almost means they won't support a no confidence vote.

Emergency debate been granted for tomorrow.
 
The cnuts in r/UKpolitics got me so excited for a second with their giddiness for SO24. Turns out it doesn’t have any meaningful impact apart from soundbites.