Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I don't think the idea of the deceased providing a lasting mandate is discussed enough. We must be around 1million leave voters having died since the referendum, that's very close to the difference in leave and remain.

Are we really saying that ignoring the wishes of the dead is a democratic betrayal?
 
Fair enough.

If the proposition is that referenda are a horrible idea, I agree. Even in the case of the People's Vote, though I cant see any better way out of this mess.
I think they have their place but need to be handled carefully. Definitely not as tools in political games, as Cameron did.
 
Definitely.

I think history will judge May as a PM that was dealt a horrible hand, and played it badly. Whereas Cameron was someone who was dealt a perfectly good hand and played it catastrophically.
She took on the impossible job. TBF to her she did something no one thought she'd do: put in a draft agreement and get the backing of the EU. But then again she managed to unite the leavers and remainers. :lol:

I think someone who has been overlooked in all of this is Gina Miller, although she was not responsible for the meaningful vote she fought a hard case for parliament to have the final say. History will be a lot kinder to her when the right-wing press described her as a saboteur.
 
I am a Corbyn supporter, but his decision to table a no confidence motion is baffling to me. There is no way on earth that he is going to win. The Tories won't oust themselves and the DUP will clearly support the Tories. I think he has well and truly got this wrong.
On the one hand the leader of the opposition is doing what he has to do. On the other, it is futile because May will get the support she needs.

Corbyn is playing a blinder or is tactically incompetent whichever way you look at it. He is vague on his position on the result and a second referendum so he isn't alienating the Labour supporters who voted out and in the North East there were big numbers. But his refusal to back a "People's vote" and not putting anything on the table is damaging to his own party and its constituents.

Labour are in no position to call a GE because right now they are a shambles. They may have big membership numbers but Corbyn is not savvy enough to lead the country. If he came out and backed a second ref or even outlined his vision after Brexit in the hypothetical manifesto then maybe, just maybe he will get people voting for them. And those who support leave can understand where he's coming from. They may not vote for his party but at least they get a clear idea.
 
I have a bit of sympathy with May on the Freedom of Movement red line. In the sense that I think she was probably correct in her assessment that what people were voting for more than any other single issue when they voted Leave was for an end to freedom of movement.

I think people are mistaken in blaming their problems on immigrants and that immigration has been a net positive for the country. But I do think people wanting to "take back control" wanted, more than anything, to see less immigration. And so I understand why May thought a workable deal on Brexit that satisfied the people that voted for it would require an end to freedom of movement.
 

Frankly, if you give up opposing freedom of movement then there's not much point to Brexit anyway. I'm pretty sure 80+% of Leavers would be deeply unhappy with such a deal.

So yeah, I wouldn't blame May for that. From what I as an outsider can see, it's hard to see Parliament accepting a deal that leaves freedom of movement in place.
 
50%+1 is enough to change a lot of things. Its enough to change policy, to carry a motion in the House of Commons. But for a major constitutional change? No, I dont think it is. We are not talking about policies that come and go here, passed by one government and repealed by the next, this is for major, long term issue, the effects of which will be felt for generations, which require a high level of consensus.

That is why a two thirds majority is needed for significant constitutional amendments in a lot of countries, as I said before. This is not unusual, this is not me throwing out a wacky idea to thwart the will of the British people, there are rules like this in the US, there are rules like this in the EU. If Brexit had passed by a two third majority, rather than a paper thin majority, we wouldnt be in the mess we are in. To change a country so fundamentally you need an overwhelming number of people behind you or you are going to end up with the kind of acrimony and gridlock we see now. That is why Remainers would have taken a 50%+1 victory without a quibble: it was the status quo. There is no contradiction there.

Dictatorship lite? What are you talking about? Have a word.


Maybe you should have a look to see how the UK joined the EEC in the first place. No two thirds majority there. Indeed no referendum at all before “major constitutional change”.
 
Maybe you should have a look to see how the UK joined the EEC in the first place. No two thirds majority there. Indeed no referendum at all before “major constitutional change”.
As I conceded to @Siorac above, maybe the two thirds majority for a referendum was a bad idea. Im happy to revise my position to say this question should never have been put to a referendum at all. That is still on Cameron though.
 
Frankly, if you give up opposing freedom of movement then there's not much point to Brexit anyway. I'm pretty sure 80+% of Leavers would be deeply unhappy with such a deal.

So yeah, I wouldn't blame May for that. From what I as an outsider can see, it's hard to see Parliament accepting a deal that leaves freedom of movement in place.

Immigration isn't going away. We need a more grown up conversation about it. One the one hand, our population is ageing. We're going to need people to care for them. On the other, a condition of all these post-Brexit trade deals will be immigration alongside them. Immigration will be a fact of life whatever happens.
 
Immigration isn't going away. We need a more grown up conversation about it. One the one hand, our population is ageing. We're going to need people to care for them. On the other, a condition of all these post-Brexit trade deals will be immigration alongside them. Immigration will be a fact of life whatever happens.
Yeah, you'll have a hard time selling that to Leavers. They want to have their cake and eat it, too, seemingly.
 
Yeah, you'll have a hard time selling that to Leavers. They want to have their cake and eat it, too, seemingly.
After Brexit there won't be any cake. We'll be foraging for nuts and berries within 18 months.
 
Yes but that is two thirds majority in Parliament. Referendums (referenda?) rarely require a two-thirds majority.

Because we are a parliamentary democracy, referenda have been few and far between so we haven't really nailed down when they are needed or how they should work. Which is no longer sustainable. They've become a thing recently because constitutional reform has been handled piecemeal and poorly, so they've become a bit of a filler for political cracks in the system. But there's no real constitutional rules on how they are supposed to work. Brexit is a constitutional crises as much as a political one - encompassing how the UK regions are represented, our voting system, the role of parliament, our unwritten constitution etc etc. The UK could break up over this.
 
May destroying Corbyn :wenger:

This is what I imagine in my mind

0ec.jpg
 
As someone without a deep understanding of this, what realistically happens now? Have always felt we're trudging towards a shambolic second referendum but is that even possible/legal?

The EU have stated they will allow an extension of the article 50 deadline to facilitate a 2nd referendum.
 
Does anyone know when Labour could put a referendum motion to the house?

After some thought i think they should hold off on any motion until May presents her Plan B. May will just use it as an argument to support her bill otherwise and MPs will want to again give May another chance to come up with something
 
Oh yeah, its worse than remaining, but might allow politicians to say "we left" and everyone can try to move on.

The whole situation with Norway and the EU is different to most other countries considering we've got ridiculous amounts of natural resources that we won't let others control. Whole different thing to England really. It is not like the EU can choose not to trade with Norway, considering 36% of all gas consumed in the EU comes from Norway.

Merkel and the rest of the krauts will find the winters cold if they do.

Also the reason why Noggie politicians don't want England in the EEC is because you would become too dominant.

Besides, you shouldn't listen to Erna Solberg, she is from our variety of the torries, and would happily give away Norway in it's entirety if it meant a better career trajectory for herself. The cnut.
 
The EU have stated they will allow an extension of the article 50 deadline to facilitate a 2nd referendum.
Even that is not a given though, is it? My understanding is they are saying they would be well predisposed to providing that extension, but it would requite unanimity from the 27. So one country with a gripe about something could wreck the plan.
 
It can't be the default position of the left to blame the media. It doesn't wash with a lot of people.

It's not the media's fault Labour appointed Miliband. It's not the media's fault Labour appointed Corbyn. It's not the media's fault that Corbyn is a eurosceptic, who can't even unite his own party. It's not the media's fault Labour appointed a socialist who has encouraged the party to move further to the far-left in pursuit of a Marxist-utopia - good luck winning an election without the centrist vote.

At some point they have to take a look at themselves.

I want a Labour party that I can vote for. Not this sh*t excuse for an opposition.

As a lifelong Labour voter I totally agree with your last point.
I would have to do a lot of soul searching before I could vote Labour with JC at the helm.
 
Reading the comments on the BBC site regarding May's vote of no confidence.

"Try as I might, I still can’t manage to recall any mention of a “deal” on the 2016 ballot paper. No, no, I’m sure I did not imagine it. I’ve tried searching on the internet but it must have been removed without trace. "

So many people like that. Like, of course we're going to make a fecking deal... Wtf else are we gonna do? "Peace, bitches!" & just walk off?

I get the feeling lots of voters thought the UK leaving the EU would be as simple as cancelling a Netflix subscription.
 
So May wants to reach out to opposition MPs, but has already ruled out a customs union.

Has she learned nothing?
 
I get the feeling lots of voters thought the UK leaving the EU would be as simple as cancelling a Netflix subscription.

The sad thing is you’re right. A few (not all) Leavers that I spoke to said things like “just leave the bloody thing”. The immensely complex nature of trade deals wasn’t considered.
 
Think I'll change my evaluation:

90% No Deal, 10% Revoke A50

I think you are correct. I have no idea how they can find a solution for this mess. Even if the EU confirms that they'll allow an extension for couple of months, there is no clear path to a solution.
 
I think you are correct. I have no idea how they can find a solution for this mess. Even if the EU confirms that they'll allow an extension for couple of months, there is no clear path to a solution.

Exactly, they could be talking about this for the next ten years and they'll never agree a solution amongst themselves.
 
The sad thing is you’re right. A few (not all) Leavers that I spoke to said things like “just leave the bloody thing”. The immensely complex nature of trade deals wasn’t considered.

Exactly half a century of EU integration can't be undone without massive disruption.

3 years later and loads still think it's really simple to leave, look at Warnock the other day.