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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sullydnl said:
It will do more than that though I think?

If May is directed to renegotiate the WA and the EU refuses to do so (as everyone knows they will) then politics of what is acceptable back in the UK shifts somewhat? As in with each option (even false one) that gets rejected another (like May's deal, for example) becomes more politically palatable to some?
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That is in fact true, but not May's intention here - she looks to be resigned to 'no deal' now and the passing of the Brady amendment this evening will simply help her manage it (in terms of her own reputational damage).

Other options, like a general election/2nd referendum/revoking A50 might start to look more palatable to some, though (obviously none carry anything like a majority at this stage), given that the only alternative will be no deal.

sullydnl said:
Presumably extending A50 would still be an option too?
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That can't be done unilaterally, though, and the EU would only agree to it if there was a GE/2nd vote on the table (or to allow time to pass the legislation for a ratified WA).
 
It does put Ireland in an interesting position if they genuinely believe UK will leave with no deal rather than accept the backstop.

Wouldn Ireland rather be fecked for certain at the end of March now, or potentially be fecked in a couple of years time?
 
Thought this was a noteworthy line from Tusks statement:
"Should there be a UK reasoned request for an extension, the EU27 would stand ready to consider it and decide by unanimity"
Doesn't sound hugely enthusiastic about extending. A 'reasoned request' kind of suggests they'd look at the purpose of asking for an extension. And decide by unanimity kind of suggests one objection would be enough for them to say no.
 
Infra-red said:
That is in fact true, but not May's intention here - she looks to be resigned to 'no deal' now and the passing of the Brady amendment this evening will simply help her manage it (in terms of her own reputational damage).

Other options, like a general election/2nd referendum/revoking A50 might start to look more palatable to some, though (obviously none carry anything like a majority at this stage), given that the only alternative will be no deal.



That can't be done unilaterally, though, and the EU would only agree to it if there was a GE/2nd vote on the table (or to allow time to pass the legislation for a ratified WA).
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Well a second vote seems out of the question, so what would it take for a GE in the context of a looming no deal?
 
MikeUpNorth said:
It does put Ireland in an interesting position if they genuinely believe UK will leave with no deal rather than accept the backstop.

Wouldn Ireland rather be fecked for certain at the end of March now, or potentially be fecked in a couple of years time?
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We'll be on track for a united Ireland.
Nobody wants to push this forward but the vote will almost certainly happen in the event of no deal.
That's an acceptable scenario IMO.
 
cyberman said:
We'll be on track for a united Ireland.
Nobody wants to push this forward but the vote will almost certainly happen in the event of no deal.
That's an acceptable scenario IMO.
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A civil war then.
 
Mb194dc said:
If you want a united Ireland? Problem is DUP are in coalition supporting government, and also conservative MPs want union as one.

Yes it's 100% May's and UK negotiaters fault.
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A united Ireland? The only thing that is likely to bring about that is a no deal Brexit. The backstop potentially gives NI the benefits of remaining in the EU but whilst remaining in the UK. It would possibly cause a boom in our economy here. Why do you think Scotland were freaking out about it as they wanted the same terms. All our business leaders are very optimistic about the backstop. The DUP are trying to turn it into an orange and green argument which it isn't, it's an economic one.
 
caid said:
Thought this was a noteworthy line from Tusks statement:
"Should there be a UK reasoned request for an extension, the EU27 would stand ready to consider it and decide by unanimity"
Doesn't sound hugely enthusiastic about extending. A 'reasoned request' kind of suggests they'd look at the purpose of asking for an extension. And decide by unanimity kind of suggests one objection would be enough for them to say no.
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True... Equally there is nothing in law to prevent the UK from withdrawing A50 and then resubmitting the next day... Clearly wouldn't be a good start to negotiations but legally the UK could.
 
balaks said:
They are all a pack of self-service, arrogant liers
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This is all that needs to be said about our current parliament.

Feckless twats. Genuinely enough to bang your head against a wall.
 
sun_tzu said:
True... Equally there is nothing in law to prevent the UK from withdrawing A50 and then resubmitting the next day... Clearly wouldn't be a good start to negotiations but legally the UK could.
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It would need to be voted through the House of Commons first though.
 
sullydnl said:
Well a second vote seems out of the question, so what would it take for a GE in the context of a looming no deal?
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A majority of the House to pass a motion of no confidence in the government. Corbyn failed with his no confidence vote two weeks ago (325-306) but will almost certainly have another go in the coming weeks.
 
sullydnl said:
Well a second vote seems out of the question, so what would it take for a GE in the context of a looming no deal?
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Possibly all it would take is may thinking she could win it... Pitch it virtually as a second ref and hope the conservatives can pick up lots of leave labour constituencies ?

If she offered a ge labour couldn't conceivably vote against it... EU might grant A50 extension for a ge?

Unlikely but not impossible she might go for this
 
MikeUpNorth said:
It does put Ireland in an interesting position if they genuinely believe UK will leave with no deal rather than accept the backstop.

Wouldn Ireland rather be fecked for certain at the end of March now, or potentially be fecked in a couple of years time?
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The primary reason we dont want you to leave without a deal is because it would lead to a border in Northern Ireland. We're not going to agree to a deal that doesn't guarantee avoiding it. End of.
The threats to 'feck Ireland' don't make people more inclined to deal with you incidentally. Its an idiotic bargaining position to take unless you desperately want to avoid reaching a deal.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
It does put Ireland in an interesting position if they genuinely believe UK will leave with no deal rather than accept the backstop.

Wouldn Ireland rather be fecked for certain at the end of March now, or potentially be fecked in a couple of years time?
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The Irish position appears to be that in the event of a no deal they would put temporary measures in place (think of the foot and mouth crisis years ago) and hope that sense prevails over the coming weeks and months. That is a better proposition then potentially signing itself up for a border in the long run.

In fact the Irish PM already alluded to this position earlier in the week:









Also something eluded to from other EU sources:

 
balaks said:
A united Ireland? The only thing that is likely to bring about that is a no deal Brexit. The backstop potentially gives NI the benefits of remaining in the EU but whilst remaining in the UK. It would possibly cause a boom in our economy here. Why do you think Scotland were freaking out about it as they wanted the same terms. All our business leaders are very optimistic about the backstop. The DUP are trying to turn it into an orange and green argument which it isn't, it's an economic one.
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Don't get it?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-44615404

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46216120

What is the benefit? In the customs union like rest of the UK but with extra checks on some goods? Just extra bureaucracy?
 
sun_tzu said:
True... Equally there is nothing in law to prevent the UK from withdrawing A50 and then resubmitting the next day... Clearly wouldn't be a good start to negotiations but legally the UK could.
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They couldn't. There's a clause about 'good faith'. Resubmitting it a day, week or month later would clearly violate that.
 
TheGame said:
She is a vile person. She's been caught lying about keeping information linked to russian spending in the referendum and claimed she forgot it was in her attic. Yet everyone ignores it.
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Aye, no doubt and her constant smug appearance and sneering manner are really off putting. Seems to hide behind an exterior of investigative journalism when she's clearly very biased and self-interested.

I'd still give her one though. An angry one.
 
A spokesperson for Varadkar said:

The EU position on the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop, is set out in the conclusions of the December meeting of the European Council. It has not changed.

The withdrawal agreement is not open for re-negotiation.

The agreement is a carefully negotiated compromise, which balances the UK position on customs and the single market with avoiding a hard border and protecting the integrity of the EU customs union and single market.

The best way to ensure an orderly withdrawal is to ratify this agreement.

We have consistently said that we want the closest possible future relationship between the EU and the UK. A change in the UK red lines could lead to a change in the political Declaration on the framework for the future relationship, and a better overall outcome.

We will continue our preparations for all outcomes, including for a no-deal scenario.
 
balaks said:
No NI would be in customs Union and also in UK which would be a unique position. The rest of the UK would be out of the customs Union.
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The whole of the UK would effectively remain in the customs union under the backstop.
 
caid said:
They couldn't. There's a clause about 'good faith'. Resubmitting it a day, week or month later would clearly violate that.
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Actually the good faith was the advocate general interpretation... The EU court that said it could be revoked said it slightly differently
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/976296c6-fc6c-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e
.There are some conditions. The member state must be “unequivocal and unconditional” in its revocation. On this, the court has adopted a slightly different approach to the court’s advocate general, whose opinion last week was that a departing member state must be acting in “good faith”. But the effect of the requirement will be the same: a member state cannot just tactically seek to “stop the clock” so as to improve its negotiating position. As the court says, “revocation brings the withdrawal process to an end”.
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To the best of my understanding if it is totally revoked.. i.e. it's not suspended then it can be withdrawn
At which point you are a full member state with all your rights enshrined in law as before... This includes the right to invoke A50

Suspect the EU would move to close the loophole but that said not sure if we have a veto... One for the lawyers but good faith is implied in all contract law... But meh get the lawyers on it and it could take years to sort out
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A spokesperson for Varadkar said:

The EU position on the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop, is set out in the conclusions of the December meeting of the European Council. It has not changed.

The withdrawal agreement is not open for re-negotiation.

The agreement is a carefully negotiated compromise, which balances the UK position on customs and the single market with avoiding a hard border and protecting the integrity of the EU customs union and single market.

The best way to ensure an orderly withdrawal is to ratify this agreement.

We have consistently said that we want the closest possible future relationship between the EU and the UK. A change in the UK red lines could lead to a change in the political Declaration on the framework for the future relationship, and a better overall outcome.

We will continue our preparations for all outcomes, including for a no-deal scenario.
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Least surprising part of this evening :lol:
 
What NI might have benefit from is the proposal the DUP rejected most fervently: NI stays in the customs union and there's an effective border down the Irish sea. That would leave it in the goldilocks position of being the only part of the UK in the customs union. However that ship sank before it even left port.
 
balaks said:
No NI would be in customs Union and also in UK which would be a unique position. The rest of the UK would be out of the customs Union.
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That backstop you're on about was one that was only ever discussed months ago and rejected instantly by the UK mate.
 
So what we have is May going back to the EU . Being told no and then winding down for no deal in March.
 
sun_tzu said:
Actually the good faith was the advocate general interpretation... The EU court that said it could be revoked said it slightly differently
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/976296c6-fc6c-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e


To the best of my understanding if it is totally revoked.. i.e. it's not suspended then it can be withdrawn
At which point you are a full member state with all your rights enshrined in law as before... This includes the right to invoke A50

Suspect the EU would move to close the loophole but that said not sure if we have a veto... One for the lawyers but good faith is implied in all contract law... But meh get the lawyers on it and it could take years to sort out
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Interesting. Guess we'll be stuck in Brexit purgatory indefinitely then?
 
Drifter said:
So what we have is May going back to the EU . Being told no and then winding down for no deal in March.
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Correct, that's May's plan now, the ERG/Tory Brexiteers have won that particular battle.

The only thing that can stop it is, 1. a general election, 2. a referendum, or 3. unilaterally revoking A50. The question is, will a majority of MPs fall behind one of those three options when staring down the barrel of no deal.
 
If May lost a vote of confidence would anyone still have authority to revoke a50? Could the parliament continue sitting long enough to do that or how does that work?
Cant see a General Election happening by other means
 
sullydnl said:
The Irish position appears to be that in the event of a no deal they would put temporary measures in place (think of the foot and mouth crisis years ago) and hope that sense prevails over the coming weeks and months. That is a better proposition then potentially signing itself up for a border in the long run.
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That is the Irish position, but I don’t fully understand it. The UK leaving without a deal now would be exactly the same as the UK leaving without a deal in a few years time, if they time limited the backstop. Why chose certain pain now over potential pain later? My only conclusion is that they don’t really believe the UK will go through with a ‘no deal’ scenario. They underestimate our stupidity.

The real reason, in my opinion, that the EU will never agree to time limit the backstop is because it would fundamentally change the nature of negotiations on the future trade deal. With the indefinite backstop, the EU basically has no pressure to conclude a trade deal and can play hardball on the fine road points of a trade deal. If the backstop had an expiry date then that advantage is neutralised as both parties have a clock ticking and need to compromise.

Remember, this is just a withdrawal agreement at this stage. All the real hard negotiations around trade still have to be done in the coming years, whatever happens.

It’s what I don’t undertand about the ‘just get on with it crowd’. Even if we leave without a deal in March, the next 3-5 years would still be entirely consumed by trade negotiations with the EU. Whatever happens in the next month, it’s just the very beginning...
 
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