Champions League Round of 16 (12th Feb - 13th Mar)

‘Parking the bus’ has changed meaning for too many people. It used to be having 20% possession and 10 players inside the box, now any team that plays conservately is parking the bus.

Bayern had more possession than Liverpool yesterday. They’d have seen how bad Liverpool’s away form has been in Europe and they’ll obviously fancy their chances at home.

They played extremely defensively. You can have possession and park the bus, it just means you're barely committing players to the attack and are clearly focused on defending. Bayern's fullbacks did not leave their own half, their striker saw nothing of the ball. Most of the time in possession they were passing it backwards as opposed to taking any risks, they played like a team facing relegation, not a top European side.

If you like they're a bus parking side who have a bit of quality on the ball so were able to play possession in their own half. There was no intent to score there, none. That's not just playing 'conservatively'. The feckers were wasting time with throw ins and corners in the first half for god sake.
 
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‘Parking the bus’ has changed meaning for too many people. It used to be having 20% possession and 10 players inside the box, now any team that plays conservately is parking the bus.

Bayern had more possession than Liverpool yesterday. They’d have seen how bad Liverpool’s away form has been in Europe and they’ll obviously fancy their chances at home.

Bayern didn't do that well though. They conceded 2.2 xG. That's not shutting out the opposition. People seem to have convinced themselves that because Liverpool weren't their ferocious self that this was an even game. It wasn't.
 
Goretzka, Robben, Muller, a fully-fit Ribery... those would be fantastic additions to Bayern in three weeks’ time and a prospect that should worry Liverpool. Bayern’s options from the bench last night were extremely limited yet they went to Anfield and got a very respectable result. I would be very wary of Bayern at the Allianz as they are a formidable outfit there. Couple to that their vast experience at this level, their injury list clearing up and Liverpool being absolutely dire away from home in Europe the past two seasons, it is a difficult task for a Liverpool side who also haven’t played a good game - anywhere - since December (okay maybe Bournemouth but Howe gifted you the three points that day with his set-up).

Liverpool fans talking up their chances and claiming last night was a good result for them are either fantasists or in complete denial. Bayern would be by far the happier of the two considering the context of the fixture (absentees, home advantage, first leg nerves etc). It’s finely poised and of course Liverpool could score a couple out there and kill the tie, but that would be an exception rather than a rule for this Liverpool team under Klopp away from home in Europe, where results and performances have been generally poor. A raucous Allianz, a rejuvenated and re-strengthened Bayern, a nervy away team... it’s certainly not the cake-walk some Liverpool fans are claiming it will be.
It's a good but dangerous result for Bayern, and it's a decent but passable result for us.

Bayern disadvantages:
- If we score, they need to win
- They will be nervous even when it's 1-0
- They'll have to come at us since they won't go for a 0-0
- Kimmich is out
- We get our best defender back

Bayern advantages:
- They play at home
- They should have a stronger bench
- We're poor away from home in Europe tis season (don't know why you included last season when we won 2 of our 3 away games in the KO stages)

I've not seen one Liverpool fan claiming it will be a cake-walk in Munich either. The result could've been better but it's certainly not bad by any means, as we've kept our options open. I'd give both teams around 50% chance to advance right now.
 
Yeah, possession which was all in their backline. Neuer had more touches than Lewandowski.

Liverpool have their best two central defenders out. They could potentially have been hurt but Bayern didn't even try and get forward, their fullbacks barely passed the halfway line.
Their fullbacks were more disciplined than usual but as the home team with a full strength attack liverpool will feel it was missed opportunity. The last 10 minutes of the 1st half it looked like matter of time before the goal but the rest was just poor. It was all rather frantic. Too many poor decision makings. It will be bayerns turn to attack with their strongest team 2nd leg so let's see.
 
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I can't believe I have to say this but that is completely irrelevant.
I can't believe I have to say this, but we are talking about whether a 0:0 is a good results for the home or away team in general.

I agree that Liverpool isn't much at a disadvantage after the 1st leg, based on team strength.
Systems that take ELO (=team strength) into account seem to have it close to 50/50. Bookies odds for TQ are close to 50/50 too.
 
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That's statistics of the actual results. Nevertheless Liverpool have the advantage mathematically.

Bayern have the advantage mathematically. You're basing the argument on probability, which tells you a 0-0 results in the team playing at home in the second leg winning the tie 70% of the time.

The rest of the figures you're quoting are dubious at best where as this is statistical so not up for debate.

Liverpool have the advantage of a score draw but have to both score and not be losing in order for it to mean anything. Xp rating or whatever doesn't score goals for you in one off games.
 
I can't believe I have to say this, but we are talking about whether a 0:0 is a good results for the home or away team in general.

I thought we were debating this specific game.

But what you say is not true either. If two teams of absolutely even strength meet then they both have an expectation of exactly 50% of going through. In the return leg the home side will again be expected to win ~45-46% of the time. Add around half of the 0-0 scorelines and you end up with pretty much 50/50 again.

Whether or not 0-0 is a good result for anyone depends on the specific match-up. If the teams differ in strength, then yes a 0-0 away will be better for one of them.
 
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I am not talking about statistics for crying out loud.
You're saying that mathematically, it's advantage to Liverpool because more of the realistically possible scorelines favour them than Bayern.

But that only makes sense if all these potential scorelines have an equal probability. That is obviously not true. You can, of course, choose to ignore probability for the sake of some sort of "pure mathematics" but then that makes the whole thing pointless because it says nothing about the actual likelihood of results.
 
You're saying that mathematically, it's advantage to Liverpool because more of the realistically possible scorelines favour them than Bayern.

But that only makes sense if all these potential scorelines have an equal probability. That is obviously not true. You can, of course, choose to ignore probability for the sake of some sort of "pure mathematics" but then that makes the whole thing pointless because it says nothing about the actual likelihood of results.

If that is what he was saying then yeah, this is rubbish. I thought he just poorly worded what I said above. The summed probabilities of all possible scorelines make this an even game or favour Liverpool slightly.
 
This discussion is more interesting than the match was.
 
This discussion is more interesting than the match was.
I think we can all agree to that.

Although, the match wasn't actually that bad if we're being honest. There were definitely some exciting periods, especially some nice fluid attacks by Liverpool. It's just that it could have used some goals to spice things up. It didn't help that the Lyon-Barca game was a bit of a bore fest as well of course.
 
Just quickly did this in the Excel using Poisson distribution:

2vvrih0.png


Home and away refers to the return leg. For simplification I made the following assumptions:
  • both sides are equal in strength
  • a goal expectancy of 2.7
  • the home side wins 55% of extra-times/penalties
We can conclude that 0-0 is the one scoreline that doesn't really change anything.
 
what? So what bayern should open up and play right in their hands by leaving empty space? Liverpool are supposed to be this strong side right now that will crash bayern so why does it matter if bayern "parked the bus"(this is not true by the way)? Everybody jerking around saying that liverpool will trash bayern and now people making excuses why that didnt happen.

Like i said this is the worst bayern side in recent years and yet a "mighty best" liverpool side couldnt even create one single good chance. If this was bayern circa 2013-2015 it would have been Arsenal like scoreline in favor of bayern


No, they don't have to 'open up and play right in to their hands'. You don't have to play balls to the wall attacking football, just have some intent of actually scoring a goal.

Bayern did park the bus, they just had a bit of possession which they mostly used to waste time and exchanged passes between their central defenders. Lewandowski had about 3 or 4 touches of the ball in the entire game. Bayern had zero attacking purpose and committed nobody forward even on promising breakaways, they were a team who came for a 0-0 draw and got it.

It didn't happen because Bayern played far, far more cautiously than anyone could really have predicted. I said earlier they reminded me of Chelsea under Di Matteo, a side who were clearly inferior to the teams they beat but they played a defensive style of football and were able to frustrate the opposition. The only difference was this Bayern team have more quality on the ball so rather than being constantly under siege they were able to play pointless keep ball to run the clock down. They still always had a bus in front of goal because they played defensive minded midfielders, their fullbacks never left their half, and both central defenders were as deep as could be.

And no, Bayern circa 13-15 would not have won by an Arsenal like scoreline, they would have been favourites but this Liverpool team are far better than the Arsenal sides who got smashed. Bayern circa 13-15 would have played a far more open, expansive game and left far more space on the counter which is where Liverpool thrive, you could see last night that they looked at their best when the smallest bit of space opened up and they could counter at rapid pace.
 
Parking the bus lost all the meaning.

And fecking hell, percentages to see whether home side are favourite to win the game.
 
It's a good but dangerous result for Bayern, and it's a decent but passable result for us.

Bayern disadvantages:
- If we score, they need to win
- They will be nervous even when it's 1-0
- They'll have to come at us since they won't go for a 0-0
- Kimmich is out
- We get our best defender back

Bayern advantages:
- They play at home
- They should have a stronger bench
- We're poor away from home in Europe tis season (don't know why you included last season when we won 2 of our 3 away games in the KO stages)

I've not seen one Liverpool fan claiming it will be a cake-walk in Munich either. The result could've been better but it's certainly not bad by any means, as we've kept our options open. I'd give both teams around 50% chance to advance right now.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Robertson also no longer at risk from getting a suspension from accumulated yellows?
 
Parking the bus lost all the meaning.

And fecking hell, percentages to see whether home side are favourite to win the game.

They played with two fullbacks who sat in their own half all game, two central defenders who played as deep as they possibly could, their central midfielders were playing extremely deep/cautiously all game and both wingers at times played more like fullbacks themselves. Add to that the fact they were wasting time in the FIRST HALF on shit like throw ins and corners, and yeah I'd call that a bus parked. Just because they had 'possession' (which was them playing short passes between all of the players they had in their own half) doesn't mean it wasn't an ultra defensive gameplan.

If you don't have any intention of scoring and your world class striker touches the ball less than your keeper .. you've probably parked the bus, or at least adopted a similar tactic.
 
You're saying that mathematically, it's advantage to Liverpool because more of the realistically possible scorelines favour them than Bayern.

But that only makes sense if all these potential scorelines have an equal probability. That is obviously not true. You can, of course, choose to ignore probability for the sake of some sort of "pure mathematics" but then that makes the whole thing pointless because it says nothing about the actual likelihood of results.
Yes. And I kept saying that I'm looking at it that way, disregarding statistics and likelihood.

You can choose to look at historical ties and current form and whatever source of probability you can think of, and try to assign probabilities to all possible scorelines and then weigh these accordingly and come to a different probability of advancement for both sides. Underneath, the fact remains that more of the possible results favor Liverpool, so also the set of results weighted by probability is biased towards them. It's not a huge effect, but it is an advantage.
 
Yes. And I kept saying that I'm looking at it that way, disregarding statistics and likelihood.

You can choose to look at historical ties and current form and whatever source of probability you can think of, and try to assign probabilities to all possible scorelines and then weigh these accordingly and come to a different probability of advancement for both sides. Underneath, the fact remains that more of the possible results favor Liverpool, so also the set of results weighted by probability is biased towards them. It's not a huge effect, but it is an advantage.
The second part of that sentence is not a logical consequence of the first part. The set of results weighted by probability is actually biased against Liverpool, for a number of reasons (their away form in the competition, historical data regarding outcomes after a scoreless first leg etc.). To sum it up: more of the possible results favour Liverpool but that does not mean they are favourites or have the advantage ahead of the second leg.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Robertson also no longer at risk from getting a suspension from accumulated yellows?
Didn't they change the rule last season or the season before? I think yellow cards are now erased after the QFs, so that you can only miss the final if you pick up a yellow in both legs of the semis.
 
Didn't they change the rule last season or the season before? I think yellow cards are now erased after the QFs, so that you can only miss the final if you pick up a yellow in both legs of the semis.

Maybe, but I meant the yellow card he was on last night. If he picks up a yellow in the away leg, he won't be suspended for the first QF leg, will he? Or are you saying that he needs to play the next 3 games without a yellow to avoid a suspension?
 
Looking at historical averages only makes sense if you completely disregard any match-up between two unevenly matched sides (so most of them actually). It also doesn't take into account that the away side often is the stronger team in the round of 16 because they are the group winners. If there were a big enough sample of Liverpool v Bayern type ties with a noticeable bias towards the home team in the return leg after drawing 0-0 then I'd be interested. But there isn't.
 
Permission to have Pagh Wraith's tagline changed to "Essien's calculator" mods? @Raoul @Damien @KM @Sultan after all his excellent predictions this year and last year regarding us have been a source of comic delight for us who have seen his posts :D
 
Not even going to bother watching tonight. Two of the most boring top teams in the history of sports and two semi amateur sides I've never even heard of. Whoopdie fecking doo.
 
The second part of that sentence is not a logical consequence of the first part. The set of results weighted by probability is actually biased against Liverpool, for a number of reasons (their away form in the competition, historical data regarding outcomes after a scoreless first leg etc.). To sum it up: more of the possible results favour Liverpool but that does not mean they are favourites or have the advantage ahead of the second leg.
Probabilities based on historical results may be biased against them, possible results for advancement are biased towards them. These statements are independent of each other.
As I'm personally not giving the home advantage a lot of weight and see the return of VvD and the loss of Kimmich as larger influence, Liverpool remain favorites and in an advantageous position for me.
 
Permission to have Pagh Wraith's tagline changed to "Essien's calculator" mods? @Raoul @Damien @KM @Sultan after all his excellent predictions this year and last year regarding us have been a source of comic delight for us who have seen his posts :D

Gladly. But just because something is x% likely doesn't mean it will happen. It doesn't mean the original math was wrong either. And the main thing I kept harping on about was that United's second place finish did in no way represent their true strength. Which I find hard to argue with.
 
Probabilities based on historical results may be biased against them, possible results for advancement are biased towards them. These statements are independent of each other.
As I'm personally not giving the home advantage a lot of weight and see the return of VvD and the loss of Kimmich as larger influence, Liverpool remain favorites and in an advantageous position for me.
But in your previous post you said the set of results weighted by probability is also biased towards Liverpool. Which is, in my opinion, not true at all.

It will be a tough game for Bayern though, no doubt. But calling Liverpool favourites after they couldn't even win at Anfield is very strange to me.
 
Maybe, but I meant the yellow card he was on last night. If he picks up a yellow in the away leg, he won't be suspended for the first QF leg, will he? Or are you saying that he needs to play the next 3 games without a yellow to avoid a suspension?
Did he pick up a yellow last night? Can't even remember. You're suspended after 3 yellows and all yellows are erased after the group stage, so even if he gets a yellow at Bayern, he won't be suspended for the first leg of the QFs should we go through.
 
They played with two fullbacks who sat in their own half all game, two central defenders who played as deep as they possibly could, their central midfielders were playing extremely deep/cautiously all game and both wingers at times played more like fullbacks themselves. Add to that the fact they were wasting time in the FIRST HALF on shit like throw ins and corners, and yeah I'd call that a bus parked. Just because they had 'possession' (which was them playing short passes between all of the players they had in their own half) doesn't mean it wasn't an ultra defensive gameplan.

If you don't have any intention of scoring and your world class striker touches the ball less than your keeper .. you've probably parked the bus, or at least adopted a similar tactic.

Yeah, that's why Bayern parked bus vs Augsburg as Neuer had more toches than Lewandowski, Chelsea almost parked the bus as Kepa had just 3 less touches than Higuain, Spurs parked bus when they beat Bournemouth 5-0 as Lloris had more touches than Kane, also parked bus vs Arsenal when they lost 4-2 as again Lloris had more touches than Kane.

Not all strikers play in same role, some lead the line without dropping deep, which means they will have less touches than GK many times.

Again, Bayern played defensive, that's not parked the bus. That phrase lost all his meaning when any team that didn't attack was termed as Parking the bus.

You should watch Barca vs Inter to see what that phrase means.

Edit: Somehow City and Liverpool both parked the bus when they played in Jan as both strikers had less touches than both GKs.
 
But in your previous post you said the set of results weighted by probability is also biased towards Liverpool. Which is, in my opinion, not true at all.
If you think of the possible results as one matrix and the probability weighting factors of a second matrix which you would multiply with each other to generate the distribution of likely results, then the first matrix bears the bias favoring Liverpool and the second one may carry its own bias. I was again only referring to the set of possible results without probability factored in when talking about bias in favor of Liverpool.
 
If it goes all the way to penos, do you think Bayern would have an advantage?
 
Yeah, that's why Bayern parked bus vs Augsburg as Neuer had more toches than Lewandowski, Chelsea almost parked the bus as Kepa had just 3 less touches than Higuain, Spurs parked bus when they beat Bournemouth 5-0 as Lloris had more touches than Kane, also parked bus vs Arsenal when they lost 4-2 as again Lloris had more touches than Kane.

Not all strikers play in same role, some lead the line without dropping deep, which means they will have less touches than GK many times.

Again, Bayern played defensive, that's not parked the bus. That phrase lost all his meaning when any team that didn't attack was termed as Parking the bus.

You should watch Barca vs Inter to see what that phrase means.
Agree. The term get's tossed around too loosely. Mou's inter, that's parking the bus. Or what minnows like Luxembourg, Malta, Faroer etc do against the bigger countries, where every time their striker get's the ball on the opponents half he just decides to shoot from 50 meters out, because he knows he will never get closer anyway.

Bayern set back a bit, because they didn't want to concede and took a chance with trying to score on the break. That's something different entirely.
 
Agree. The term get's tossed around too loosely. Mou's inter, that's parking the bus. Or what minnows like Luxembourg, Malta, Faroer etc do against the bigger countries, where every time their striker get's the ball on the opponents half he just decides to shoot from 50 meters out, because he knows he will never get closer anyway.

Bayern set back a bit, because they didn't want to concede and took a chance with trying to score on the break. That's something different entirely.

With Mane, Salah's pace it made sense to play deeper considering Hummels isn't quick. Even more important that they played deeper at Anfield as Liverpool plays all out attack in first few mins like they did vs City last season.
 
Did he pick up a yellow last night? Can't even remember. You're suspended after 3 yellows and all yellows are erased after the group stage, so even if he gets a yellow at Bayern, he won't be suspended for the first leg of the QFs should we go through.

If yellows are erased after the group stage, how did Kimmich get suspended for the return leg? Both he & Robbo were on yellows going into yesterdays game, and I'm just confused as to whether or not Robbo will be on one next time.
 
If yellows are erased after the group stage, how did Kimmich get suspended for the return leg? Both he & Robbo were on yellows going into yesterdays game, and I'm just confused as to whether or not Robbo will be on one next time.
Apparently they don't get erased after the group stage, only after the QF (just checked). If Robertson is on 2 at the moment, he'll be suspended if he gets one in the return leg.

He's on 2 according to transfermarkt.com.
 
No, they don't have to 'open up and play right in to their hands'. You don't have to play balls to the wall attacking football, just have some intent of actually scoring a goal.

Bayern did park the bus, they just had a bit of possession which they mostly used to waste time and exchanged passes between their central defenders. Lewandowski had about 3 or 4 touches of the ball in the entire game. Bayern had zero attacking purpose and committed nobody forward even on promising breakaways, they were a team who came for a 0-0 draw and got it.

It didn't happen because Bayern played far, far more cautiously than anyone could really have predicted. I said earlier they reminded me of Chelsea under Di Matteo, a side who were clearly inferior to the teams they beat but they played a defensive style of football and were able to frustrate the opposition. The only difference was this Bayern team have more quality on the ball so rather than being constantly under siege they were able to play pointless keep ball to run the clock down. They still always had a bus in front of goal because they played defensive minded midfielders, their fullbacks never left their half, and both central defenders were as deep as could be.

And no, Bayern circa 13-15 would not have won by an Arsenal like scoreline, they would have been favourites but this Liverpool team are far better than the Arsenal sides who got smashed. Bayern circa 13-15 would have played a far more open, expansive game and left far more space on the counter which is where Liverpool thrive, you could see last night that they looked at their best when the smallest bit of space opened up and they could counter at rapid pace.

This is simply not true, Bayern were pressing high sometimes and had similar amount of chances to score, Coman hitting the side net, Gnabry having a good shot saved by Alison, Gnabry two crosses that were luckily cleared by Matip..

Both teams didnt want to open up so much and it made sense for Bayern to play more deep not leaving space for the fast Liverpool players and waiting maybe to score from a given situation one goal from either side would have change the match for the other team for the worst. Very similar match was Tottenham-Dortmund both teams playing safely not wanting to risk without creating chances then one moment and Tottenham were leading out of nothing after that it was easier for them having the lead.

In the end my point was that everybody were saying that Bayern would get smashed and that "they need to lube up" and yet like i said clearly the worst Bayern in recent times were very close to the best Liverpool in long time. And now we are reading excuses how Bayern were "parking the bus', no they were playing smart and got away without conceding a goal at Anfield where not many teams managed to do so and btw that was the first clean sheet for Bayern in 2019 so you can imagine how bad this Bayern is right now conceding two goals by Augsburg and co.
 
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Yeah, that's why Bayern parked bus vs Augsburg as Neuer had more toches than Lewandowski, Chelsea almost parked the bus as Kepa had just 3 less touches than Higuain, Spurs parked bus when they beat Bournemouth 5-0 as Lloris had more touches than Kane, also parked bus vs Arsenal when they lost 4-2 as again Lloris had more touches than Kane.

Not all strikers play in same role, some lead the line without dropping deep, which means they will have less touches than GK many times.

Again, Bayern played defensive, that's not parked the bus. That phrase lost all his meaning when any team that didn't attack was termed as Parking the bus.

You should watch Barca vs Inter to see what that phrase means.

Edit: Somehow City and Liverpool both parked the bus when they played in Jan as both strikers had less touches than both GKs.


OK, I'll rephrase. Lewandowski touched the ball about 3-4 times in any meaningful kind of area and didn't even have a sniff of a chance. Regardless of how many touches the keeper has, when your striker is totally starved of service because you refuse to actually commit bodies forwards in attack, you're probably parking a bus.

'To park the bus, means to play very defensively, to get a lot of players behind the ball, to offer no attacking play. '

Bayern played very defensively. Bayern got a lot of men behind the ball, and Bayern offered no attacking play aside from 2-3 hopeful efforts over the 90 minutes.

If that performance wasn't parking the bus, it begs the question of how defensively you have to play in order to qualify? Bayern's wingers did more defensive than attacking work. Even James Rodriguez did more tracking back than actual attacking. People seem to think just because Bayern happened to have possession (all of which was in their own half) it means they weren't parking the bus. No, it just means they had players comfortable on the ball.
 
Agree. The term get's tossed around too loosely. Mou's inter, that's parking the bus. Or what minnows like Luxembourg, Malta, Faroer etc do against the bigger countries, where every time their striker get's the ball on the opponents half he just decides to shoot from 50 meters out, because he knows he will never get closer anyway.

Bayern set back a bit, because they didn't want to concede and took a chance with trying to score on the break. That's something different entirely.

Bayern are better than Inter or the Faroe Islands. They just parked the bus with more quality in possession.

The vast majority of their team were camped inside their own half. They offered no attacking intent whatsoever aside from on very rare occasions.

Maybe Lewandowski would have shot from 50 meters out, problem is he never actually got the ball in a position where shooting was even possible.
 
OK, I'll rephrase. Lewandowski touched the ball about 3-4 times in any meaningful kind of area and didn't even have a sniff of a chance.

'To park the bus, means to play very defensively, to get a lot of players behind the ball, to offer no attacking play. '

Bayern played very defensively. Bayern got a lot of men behind the ball, and Bayern offered no attacking play aside from 2-3 hopeful efforts over the 90 minutes.

If that performance wasn't parking the bus, it begs the question of how defensively you have to play in order to qualify? Bayern's wingers did more defensive than attacking work. Even James Rodriguez did more tracking back than actual attacking. People seem to think just because Bayern happened to have possession (all of which was in their own half) it means they weren't parking the bus. No, it just means they had players comfortable on the ball.

I'll say it again, you should watch Barca vs Inter to see what parking the bus means. Playing defensive doesnt mean parking the bus.

Like I said, people just use it so randomly it's funny.

Edit: Lewandowski touched the ball 34 times, that's more than Kane in most games.
 
Bayern are better than Inter or the Faroe Islands. They just parked the bus with more quality in possession.

The vast majority of their team were camped inside their own half. They offered no attacking intent whatsoever aside from on very rare occasions.

Maybe Lewandowski would have shot from 50 meters out, problem is he never actually got the ball in a position where shooting was even possible.

Bayern are not better than 2010 inter.
 
Apparently they don't get erased after the group stage, only after the QF (just checked). If Robertson is on 2 at the moment, he'll be suspended if he gets one in the return leg.

He's on 2 according to transfermarkt.com.

Ahh, alright. Cheers!